Topic: Gavin Andresen prediction for Bitcoin in 2061 (Read 335 times)
Gavin Anderson is crazy he/she has stated or predicted that in 2061 this is a prediction and anyone can say so because here it is speculation. Regardless of whether that's true or not, we'll see it 40 years from now. Regarding the price of 2061, there are only 2 possibilities in the speculation neither right nor wrong, but no matter what research I think it is still far from happening because 40 years is a period of time. long-term things can't be correct all just speculation. Gavin Andresen is just a market amateur who just speculates on prices and what isn't and I don't care about this, it's completely unrealistic.
I don’t think he’s gone to the dark side. I think that many of us early Bitcoiners had a vision for Bitcoin that was suddenly railroaded by unnecessary man-implemented limits that turned Bitcoin from something that could free the world from financial oppression, into a get rich quick scheme to assimilate into the existing system. If satoshi were still alive, I think he would be more aligned with Gavin’s desire for Bitcoin’s future than Blockstream’s.
I didn't know you are one of those Faketoshi supporters like Gavin Andresen, and Satoshi would never be aligned with Gavin's thinking about Bitcoin future, in the same way like he didn't agree with him when he went to talk with government agencies... Satoshi disappeared soon after that.Handing over stuff to Gavin was probably one of the biggest mistake Satoshi did and I think he realized that quickly.
Maybe I don't like what Blockstream is doing but I don't have to pick sides in this case, and it's totally unrelated with this topic.
If there are two things I can pick out of this whole rubbish or soi choose to believe that Gavin Anderson stated or predicted is that, he specifically called his prediction 'a piece of science fiction and beckoned on is to 'Imagine in the year 2061'.
Apparently, any one can come up with any prediction, predictions that could even suggest the crashing of the world, how its to happen and even propose a solution to it but, does that mean, that's what is to happen or the solutionn is the way to go about it, certainly a yes or a no.
It would be a good thing to take advice form one who has made several mistakes but not one who even continues to wallow in mistakes still and claims that aren't verifiable like Gavin Anderson. Let him have his say and lets have even more fun still!
People cannot even predict what is going to happen in the markets tomorrow so it is completely impossible that anyone is going to be able to accurately predict what is going to happen in 40 years, so what we really need to think about is why he will go through the trouble of writing something like that? And to me he's just trying to bring attention to himself because as we know early on he was an important figure in the world of bitcoin and now he has lost relevance to the point that we do not even care about any prediction that he may make.Apparently, any one can come up with any prediction, predictions that could even suggest the crashing of the world, how its to happen and even propose a solution to it but, does that mean, that's what is to happen or the solutionn is the way to go about it, certainly a yes or a no.
It would be a good thing to take advice form one who has made several mistakes but not one who even continues to wallow in mistakes still and claims that aren't verifiable like Gavin Anderson. Let him have his say and lets have even more fun still!
Although, of course, forecasts for such a long period as forty years are a thankless task and have little to do with actual reality. Also, I think that on planet Earth and on nearby planets there is hardly a reasonable being whose forecasts are worth looking at and will really listen for such a long time 
Therefore, I agree with Andresen that this is from the field of near-scientific fiction and the scenario of an expensive half-dead bitcoin is quite real. But the specific details of this already completely depend on the degree of imagination of the author of such fantastic inventions. 
If there are two things I can pick out of this whole rubbish or soi choose to believe that Gavin Anderson stated or predicted is that, he specifically called his prediction 'a piece of science fiction and beckoned on is to 'Imagine in the year 2061'.
Apparently, any one can come up with any prediction, predictions that could even suggest the crashing of the world, how its to happen and even propose a solution to it but, does that mean, that's what is to happen or the solutionn is the way to go about it, certainly a yes or a no.
It would be a good thing to take advice form one who has made several mistakes but not one who even continues to wallow in mistakes still and claims that aren't verifiable like Gavin Anderson. Let him have his say and lets have even more fun still!
People cannot even predict what is going to happen in the markets tomorrow so it is completely impossible that anyone is going to be able to accurately predict what is going to happen in 40 years, so what we really need to think about is why he will go through the trouble of writing something like that? And to me he's just trying to bring attention to himself because as we know early on he was an important figure in the world of bitcoin and now he has lost relevance to the point that we do not even care about any prediction that he may make. Apparently, any one can come up with any prediction, predictions that could even suggest the crashing of the world, how its to happen and even propose a solution to it but, does that mean, that's what is to happen or the solutionn is the way to go about it, certainly a yes or a no.
It would be a good thing to take advice form one who has made several mistakes but not one who even continues to wallow in mistakes still and claims that aren't verifiable like Gavin Anderson. Let him have his say and lets have even more fun still!
What is clear is that this news is very annoying if it really will happen in the coming year. I don't really know how this is actually used as a benchmark when everyone adopts Bitcoin and then eventually it will be given control to one particular person who claims that without him Bitcoin is nothing.
We must be able to think positively that hopefully before the time comes, maybe Gavin Andresen will die first. Isn't it much more rational for us to bet on the future of Bitcoin?
I believe it will be fine and Bitcoin will be preserved.
We must be able to think positively that hopefully before the time comes, maybe Gavin Andresen will die first. Isn't it much more rational for us to bet on the future of Bitcoin?
I believe it will be fine and Bitcoin will be preserved.
Arguably one of the biggest mistakes Satoshi Nakamoto made was transferring things over to Gavin Andresen, the guy who worked with agencies, than with Craig Wright, and now he writes some grim sci-fi future for Bitcoin on his blog.
This guy become so irrelevant in Bitcoin crypto space that maybe his only fun in life now is writing stuff like this, claiming Bitcoin will be worth 6 Million USD in 2061, but most transaction won't happen on BTC network but on multisignature and other network tokens.
Andresen claims that only whales, big holders, exchanges and banks will hold this tokens, and in year 2100 network will shutdown after closing down bridges for this tokens and fees becoming unsustainable.
This guy become so irrelevant in Bitcoin crypto space that maybe his only fun in life now is writing stuff like this, claiming Bitcoin will be worth 6 Million USD in 2061, but most transaction won't happen on BTC network but on multisignature and other network tokens.
Andresen claims that only whales, big holders, exchanges and banks will hold this tokens, and in year 2100 network will shutdown after closing down bridges for this tokens and fees becoming unsustainable.
Price predictions 40 years away are invariably worthless, as people can't accurately predict what the price will be tomorrow and the longer the time horizon the more inaccurate the price predictions are. However the logic he's using to predict the btc blockchain slowly dying is quite sound. It is abundantly evident that bitcoin has major systemic problems that are only going to become more evident as fewer newer bitcoins are produced. Fees will become exorbitant, therefore transactions will fall, therefore the mining incentive will fall, therefore miners will drop out, therefore the network will become far less secure. It will be a death spiral, and without major structural changes to how the network operates, I believe he's more right than wrong about his prediction for eventual demise. The timing element is irrelevant.
Well, I know that since it is a free world, people are always going to say a lot of things, even the ones you are not going to like at all. Our levels of understanding differs and the way we all see things. But all these speculations are getting too much; every time people are always looking for something to say about Bitcoin, especially influencers who are seeking for attention, they would just say anything and get people talking and giving them the attention they desperately seek. 6 million USD in 2061? Alright, I have nothing to say about that, but him assuming that it will get to an extent where the network would shut down is what I never really liked.
it is true that there are people who have had enough of their lives and think money is not everything, for example, like certain religious leaders who only think about spiritual things without thinking about anything else.but apart from that, there are still many who still prioritize money compared to other things, even when we see now a lot of bloodshed and wars are going on, the end of which is to get excess wealth both from finances on the other side and resources that can be sold. .
and until whenever something like this will not be able to be changed because it is human nature that incidentally is greedy and always feels that it is not enough with what they currently have.
Well, I know that since it is a free world, people are always going to say a lot of things, even the ones you are not going to like at all. Our levels of understanding differs and the way we all see things. But all these speculations are getting too much; every time people are always looking for something to say about Bitcoin, especially influencers who are seeking for attention, they would just say anything and get people talking and giving them the attention they desperately seek. 6 million USD in 2061? Alright, I have nothing to say about that, but him assuming that it will get to an extent where the network would shut down is what I never really liked.
Gavin is certainly a bit of a puzzling man. I like to read some of the old posts here on the forum and of course I've come across many from Gavin Andresen and there are so many great things/ideas that Gavin brought to the table back then. He seemed like a genuinely nice guy as well which makes it all the more difficult to dislike him but you are right he has certainly turned to the "dark side" as time has gone on. Sad to see.
I don’t think he’s gone to the dark side. I think that many of us early Bitcoiners had a vision for Bitcoin that was suddenly railroaded by unnecessary man-implemented limits that turned Bitcoin from something that could free the world from financial oppression, into a get rich quick scheme to assimilate into the existing system. If satoshi were still alive, I think he would be more aligned with Gavin’s desire for Bitcoin’s future than Blockstream’s.
I gave my opinion on Gavin's text already in another thread about that topic, having not seen this one here.
Short version: If the whales/miners really shut down the main BTC chain, then we will have a network of one-way-pegged "stablecoins" without a reference. It's only a matter of time when speculation against the peg will begin, as these tokens aren't really fungible with each other. The whole system is likely to collapse, i.e. the pegs will break, confidence will be lost, and likely another coin or monetary system could take the lead.
Some additional thoughts:
In theory, there could be another chain - or better: a token on that chain - being used as a reference. Let's say RSK-BTC or Elements-BTC (one of the oldest sidechains, even if they're currently centralized) convert into the new "reference". One could imagine a sophisticated network of 2-way pegs between all these tokens on different chains (although technically this is far from being solved at the moment!). But even in this case a lot can go wrong, e.g. the base chains could be attacked because they've lower security than the old main Bitcoin chain.
I guess there would also be a lot of speculation from the altcoin sector in such an event; imagine one altcoin offering a "reboot" of Bitcoin via an airdrop for BTC holders who burn their coins, in the style of Counterparty (XCP). But there would be likely many copycats, which will create confusion and maybe dilution if the Proof-of-burn thing isn't done right (i.e. if you could use one "burn" for several reboot chains).
Short version: If the whales/miners really shut down the main BTC chain, then we will have a network of one-way-pegged "stablecoins" without a reference. It's only a matter of time when speculation against the peg will begin, as these tokens aren't really fungible with each other. The whole system is likely to collapse, i.e. the pegs will break, confidence will be lost, and likely another coin or monetary system could take the lead.
Some additional thoughts:
In theory, there could be another chain - or better: a token on that chain - being used as a reference. Let's say RSK-BTC or Elements-BTC (one of the oldest sidechains, even if they're currently centralized) convert into the new "reference". One could imagine a sophisticated network of 2-way pegs between all these tokens on different chains (although technically this is far from being solved at the moment!). But even in this case a lot can go wrong, e.g. the base chains could be attacked because they've lower security than the old main Bitcoin chain.
I guess there would also be a lot of speculation from the altcoin sector in such an event; imagine one altcoin offering a "reboot" of Bitcoin via an airdrop for BTC holders who burn their coins, in the style of Counterparty (XCP). But there would be likely many copycats, which will create confusion and maybe dilution if the Proof-of-burn thing isn't done right (i.e. if you could use one "burn" for several reboot chains).
I doubt that the blockchain would stop because the fee's would reach to a level where we can't pay, the technological development doesn't stop and there are too many projects that managed to make blockchains that are both safe and secure while making it a lot cheaper as well. Which means that it all depends on bitcoin managing to develop something that would be similar. Look at SOL, they have like 65k transactions per block and they do not get anything close to that, while still keeping it safe for something so quick and so much.
I would assume that one day bitcoin would have some improvement. If you doubt that it would ever happen, look at what segwit is, it wasn't like this and right now it is "cheap" compared to what it could be because we moved to segwit, we could move to something like Lightning Network or something similar that is better in the future and make it cheaper again.
I would assume that one day bitcoin would have some improvement. If you doubt that it would ever happen, look at what segwit is, it wasn't like this and right now it is "cheap" compared to what it could be because we moved to segwit, we could move to something like Lightning Network or something similar that is better in the future and make it cheaper again.
and that is 27 years from now I will be 91 and most likely not care about btc.
With your age, which is no longer young, I appreciate you because you are still in this realm.
and this should be a reference for young people so that they do not lose in their role in adopting btc.
what btc will be in the future is what it will be like later because we can't be sure whether what gavin said is true or false because again it's just speculation.
despite all that before btc lost its glory why don't we maximize it for profit.
I really respect you
From my short time in economics, all that I can tell is that predicting what the economy of a specific ecosystem will look like is the same a predicting a weather forecast, the only accurate one is when you look out of your window, everything else is pure speculation. So thinking that anyone can have anything close to a ''prediction'' is laughable at best. The closest we can have is an educated guess, but in the lines that I estimate Bitcoin will not turn into a big rubber duck and sit on top of the Burj khalifa. Anything more than that is highly debatlabe.
Seems possible to me. But frankly I am 64 and will be 104 in 2061 so I won't give a fuck.
what do we do? and that is 27 years from now I will be 91 and most likely not care about btc.
what do we do? and that is 27 years from now I will be 91 and most likely not care about btc.
I thought I was quite old but it seems we have a true veteran and a real boomer in our midst
I always say my decision about Bitcoin is based purely on 2 factors, and whichever factor is hit first, is when I end my association. The first is price which is not likely (1 million dollars?) Since I estimate I maybe can save up 0.5 BTC and retire on half a million dollars which makes sure I can live well and contribute happily to my society until my death at 80 (if even that long). This is over 40 years away.
The other is if I become 55 which is almost 20 years away. Because I want to go back to my farming and live with my animals and my family. Probably no time for internet or even to check BTC price
Seems possible to me. But frankly I am 64 and will be 104 in 2061 so I won't give a fuck.
BTC has long term issues lets see
3.125 btc in 2024
1.5625 btc in 2028
0.78125 btc in 2032
0.390625 btc in 2036
0.1953125 btc in 2040
0.09765625 btc in 2044
0.048828125 btc in 2048 and we are not equipped to do this since we stop at 8 digits
so do we fight and fork to cut the last number off .
what do we do? and that is 27 years from now I will be 91 and most likely not care about btc.
BTC has long term issues lets see
3.125 btc in 2024
1.5625 btc in 2028
0.78125 btc in 2032
0.390625 btc in 2036
0.1953125 btc in 2040
0.09765625 btc in 2044
0.048828125 btc in 2048 and we are not equipped to do this since we stop at 8 digits
so do we fight and fork to cut the last number off .
what do we do? and that is 27 years from now I will be 91 and most likely not care about btc.
You are 64? You probably discovered Bitcoin 10 years ago when you were 54? Bitcoin must be a very good retirement hobby for you, and as a financial retirement insurance/back up plan. Satoshi picked a perfect year to develop, and build Bitcoin.
Plus of course you never give a fuck. Discovering and HODLing Bitcoin since under a dollar?
Interesting...
His take mostly revolves around privacy and fees which is understandable.
I do wonder if BTC is going to support completely private transactions similar to monero in the future. I do remember theymos saying something about monero being one of the only altcoins that BTC can learn from a few years back.
His take mostly revolves around privacy and fees which is understandable.
I do wonder if BTC is going to support completely private transactions similar to monero in the future. I do remember theymos saying something about monero being one of the only altcoins that BTC can learn from a few years back.
Seems possible to me. But frankly I am 64 and will be 104 in 2061 so I won't give a fuck.
BTC has long term issues lets see
3.125 btc in 2024
1.5625 btc in 2028
0.78125 btc in 2032
0.390625 btc in 2036
0.1953125 btc in 2040
0.09765625 btc in 2044
0.048828125 btc in 2048 and we are not equipped to do this since we stop at 8 digits
so do we fight and fork to cut the last number off .
what do we do? and that is 27 years from now I will be 91 and most likely not care about btc.
BTC has long term issues lets see
3.125 btc in 2024
1.5625 btc in 2028
0.78125 btc in 2032
0.390625 btc in 2036
0.1953125 btc in 2040
0.09765625 btc in 2044
0.048828125 btc in 2048 and we are not equipped to do this since we stop at 8 digits
so do we fight and fork to cut the last number off .
what do we do? and that is 27 years from now I will be 91 and most likely not care about btc.
It is easy for anyone to come up with predictions and speculations about the movement of prices so far in the future, because by the time that date comes if they are wrong nobody will even remember that they said so, but if they are right they will 100% tell that they did, i think that some of these people that give these kind of statements are just crazy and they are doing it just for social justification and not to add anything of value.
hard to say Gavin is an idiot when he talks about his predictions on bitcoin future, anyway I respect his opinion. some of the predictions that Gavin used to say might be wrong but at least it will get there. I hope bitcoin will be $6 million dollars in 2061 because I plan to pass my bitcoins to my children for their retirement funds..
Of course, in this case we can't regulate and direct other people's opinions because we know that everyone is free to express their own opinions.regardless of whether or not the opinion is of course only time can prove it.
and what Gavin did can't be said to be wrong either, because he was only speculating about what would happen in the future. even though we don't really know what it's for. he could have made it so that bitcoin fud continues so that there are whales who buy at lower prices or maybe it's pure that he doesn't like bitcoin. we don't know about it.
but for sure when it happens I will follow your way by buying as many bitcoins as possible if it really happens and if I am still alive.
hard to say Gavin is an idiot when he talks about his predictions on bitcoin future, anyway I respect his opinion. some of the predictions that Gavin used to say might be wrong but at least it will get there. I hope bitcoin will be $6 million dollars in 2061 because I plan to pass my bitcoins to my children for their retirement funds..
Well, we'll only get to know it once we're there. But honestly, i think Gavin Andresen has his own way of thinking that is quite unique from us. Who would have thought that in the end, all of these coins and tokens we have seen right now will only end up in the hands of whales, exchanges and banks. I know we are free to create our own predictions and speculations but i just can't believe that in the end, based on Gavin Andresen, we are left with nothing. Well, i respect his post, its just that its not giving me a positive vibes. Jump to: