Topic: Gavin Andresen prediction for Bitcoin in 2061 - page 3. (Read 347 times)
He's still a big blocker, I think he's even one of the first big blockers, so he will always be salty that the community rejected his naive vision in favor of more technically sound solution. And he makes such unrealistic assumptions like thinking that the block size won't change in 40 years or that no new solutions will be presented. When Satoshi created Bitcoin, he didn't imagine that someone would come up with Lightning Network, similarly in the future someone can come up with a new breakthrough that would dramatically increase Bitcoin's capacity. Gavin is like those people that said that machines heavier than air can not fly.
I just hope he doesn't show up sometime on the day he made that prediction because he had contact with some machine from the future or with someone who came from the future and talked to him. I don't know why anyone cares about 2061, it's not even 2022 is it already in 2061?
I doubt it
and maybe for the next 40 years he will forget that he said that in 2021 
I doubt it
I do hope we arent relying on one person for the future of BTC or constrained in any way resembling that, I presume not as it should be decided in a more organic way. Something like market supply and demand vs efficient processes determining the best route is best. I doubt he meant to imply it would be solely resting on his singular vision just an imagining of what might be one possible scenario which is fair enough if people dont take it too seriously.
maybe it is a good reminder because indeed it is a very certain thing when there is an increase there will be a decrease and that is a natural thing because bitcoin will not last forever and its era will surely end, although for now it will not be like that but slowly bitcoin will surely lose its glory because nothing lasts forever here.
As for the price in 2061, there are only two possibilities if it's not true, it's false, but whatever it is, even if you say research or whatever, I think it's still very far from happening because 40 years is a long time and I'm very sure at least for myself personally. , I wouldn't invest that long
and it is just speculation and things like this have often happened where a lot of people speculate about it but until now there is no proof.
so why bother with what will happen decades after today.
As for the price in 2061, there are only two possibilities if it's not true, it's false, but whatever it is, even if you say research or whatever, I think it's still very far from happening because 40 years is a long time and I'm very sure at least for myself personally. , I wouldn't invest that long
and it is just speculation and things like this have often happened where a lot of people speculate about it but until now there is no proof.
so why bother with what will happen decades after today.
again this is a prediction and anyone can say the same because here it is in a speculative direction.
regardless of true or not we will see it at least 40 years from now
I can only imagine one thing at the moment, basically when someone says something like this now they will probably say the opposite in months or years to come.
such as China's policy of going back and forth for and prohibiting bitcoin and Elon and Tesla who are fickle about bitcoin adoption.
actually it's the same here.
and maybe for the next 40 years he will forget that he said that in 2021
regardless of true or not we will see it at least 40 years from now
I can only imagine one thing at the moment, basically when someone says something like this now they will probably say the opposite in months or years to come.
such as China's policy of going back and forth for and prohibiting bitcoin and Elon and Tesla who are fickle about bitcoin adoption.
actually it's the same here.
and maybe for the next 40 years he will forget that he said that in 2021
It is an interesting post in the sense that it gives some stuff to think about. I am not too interested in knowing who is Satoshi nor in the ego quarrels of the people that supposedly worked in proximity to him, however the predictions about having bitcoin falling into a few hands is kind of a warning for us hoddlers and aligns with something that people do not seem to understand clearly and is very simple: once you sell something, you no longer own it. You have something that most times is far less valuable and goes away easily with no trace: money.
If there are two things I can pick out of this whole rubbish or soi choose to believe that Gavin Anderson stated or predicted is that, he specifically called his prediction 'a piece of science fiction and beckoned on is to 'Imagine in the year 2061'.
Apparently, any one can come up with any prediction, predictions that could even suggest the crashing of the world, how its to happen and even propose a solution to it but, does that mean, that's what is to happen or the solutionn is the way to go about it, certainly a yes or a no.
It would be a good thing to take advice form one who has made several mistakes but not one who even continues to wallow in mistakes still and claims that aren't verifiable like Gavin Anderson. Let him have his say and lets have even more fun still!
Apparently, any one can come up with any prediction, predictions that could even suggest the crashing of the world, how its to happen and even propose a solution to it but, does that mean, that's what is to happen or the solutionn is the way to go about it, certainly a yes or a no.
It would be a good thing to take advice form one who has made several mistakes but not one who even continues to wallow in mistakes still and claims that aren't verifiable like Gavin Anderson. Let him have his say and lets have even more fun still!
Arguably one of the biggest mistakes Satoshi Nakamoto made was transferring things over to Gavin Andresen, the guy who worked with agencies, than with Craig Wright, and now he writes some grim sci-fi future for Bitcoin on his blog.
This guy become so irrelevant in Bitcoin crypto space that maybe his only fun in life now is writing stuff like this, claiming Bitcoin will be worth 6 Million USD in 2061, but most transaction won't happen on BTC network but on multisignature and other network tokens.
Andresen claims that only whales, big holders, exchanges and banks will hold this tokens, and in year 2100 network will shutdown after closing down bridges for this tokens and fees becoming unsustainable.
Now lets remember big mistakes Gavin Andresen made in past, like the time when he claimed that Craig Wright is Satoshi, or how he ''visited'' three letter government agency back in 2011, shortly after Satoshi left the Bitcoin project.
Andresen's full fantasy story:
Archive: https://archive.ph/ca3An
This guy become so irrelevant in Bitcoin crypto space that maybe his only fun in life now is writing stuff like this, claiming Bitcoin will be worth 6 Million USD in 2061, but most transaction won't happen on BTC network but on multisignature and other network tokens.
Andresen claims that only whales, big holders, exchanges and banks will hold this tokens, and in year 2100 network will shutdown after closing down bridges for this tokens and fees becoming unsustainable.
Now lets remember big mistakes Gavin Andresen made in past, like the time when he claimed that Craig Wright is Satoshi, or how he ''visited'' three letter government agency back in 2011, shortly after Satoshi left the Bitcoin project.
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Gavin Andresen: Um... I haven't had email from satoshi in a couple months actually. The last email I sent him I actually told him I was going to talk at the CIA. So it's possible , that.... that may have um had something to with his deciding
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Gavin Andresen: It Was a Mistake to Blog Claiming Craig Wright Is Satoshi
Andresen's full fantasy story:
Quote
Take this as a little piece of science fiction; the chances the future looks like this are small, but of all the possible futures I think this has as good a chance of any of happening:
Imagine: it is the year 2061.
The BTC price is six million US dollars– equal to about a million 2021 dollars because of inflation.
Miners are being rewarded 0.006103515625 BTC per block, plus transaction fees of about 5 BTC for 4,000 or so transactions ($7,500 per transaction).
But most BTC transactions don’t happen on the BTC network. Most BTC is locked up in multisignature outputs secured using multiparty computation and mirrored on another chain as “wrapped” tokens. People moved their BTC either because they want faster transactions, lower fees, more privacy, or want to invest their BTC in decentralized financial stuff. Or maybe all of the above.
The transactions that do occur on the main BTC network are high-value, mostly between super-whale-size holders (centralized exchanges, central banks, and the decentralized multiparty computation addresses that hold all the wrapped coins).
These whales maintain the BTC network forever. They are the miners and the transaction creators; they don’t care how high transaction fees go, because they receive as many fees as they pay.
In the year 2100 the whales notice that the mining reward is basically zero, and there are fewer and fewer transactions happening on the slow, expensive, zero-privacy BTC network. So they decide to simplify and save money by shutting it down.
One by one, they shutdown the “bridges” that move BTC between chains. Then they burn any BTC locked on the BTC chain by sending it to the 0x000… address, to make sure nobody can ever spend it on the BTC network.
Eventually, there are zero new BTC being produced on the BTC network, and zero BTC circulating on the BTC network. There is nothing left to secure, and the chain stops.
But 20-or-so million BTC live on, circulating on other blockchains, valuable because there are a limited number of them and because BTC was the first scarce digital asset.
http://gavinandresen.ninja/a-possible-btc-futureImagine: it is the year 2061.
The BTC price is six million US dollars– equal to about a million 2021 dollars because of inflation.
Miners are being rewarded 0.006103515625 BTC per block, plus transaction fees of about 5 BTC for 4,000 or so transactions ($7,500 per transaction).
But most BTC transactions don’t happen on the BTC network. Most BTC is locked up in multisignature outputs secured using multiparty computation and mirrored on another chain as “wrapped” tokens. People moved their BTC either because they want faster transactions, lower fees, more privacy, or want to invest their BTC in decentralized financial stuff. Or maybe all of the above.
The transactions that do occur on the main BTC network are high-value, mostly between super-whale-size holders (centralized exchanges, central banks, and the decentralized multiparty computation addresses that hold all the wrapped coins).
These whales maintain the BTC network forever. They are the miners and the transaction creators; they don’t care how high transaction fees go, because they receive as many fees as they pay.
In the year 2100 the whales notice that the mining reward is basically zero, and there are fewer and fewer transactions happening on the slow, expensive, zero-privacy BTC network. So they decide to simplify and save money by shutting it down.
One by one, they shutdown the “bridges” that move BTC between chains. Then they burn any BTC locked on the BTC chain by sending it to the 0x000… address, to make sure nobody can ever spend it on the BTC network.
Eventually, there are zero new BTC being produced on the BTC network, and zero BTC circulating on the BTC network. There is nothing left to secure, and the chain stops.
But 20-or-so million BTC live on, circulating on other blockchains, valuable because there are a limited number of them and because BTC was the first scarce digital asset.
Archive: https://archive.ph/ca3An
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