Topic: Gavin Andresen prediction for Bitcoin in 2061 - page 2. (Read 335 times)

hard to say Gavin is an idiot when he talks about his predictions on bitcoin future, anyway I respect his opinion.  some of the predictions that Gavin used to say might be wrong but at least it will get there.  I hope bitcoin will be $6 million dollars in 2061 because I plan to pass my bitcoins to my children for their retirement funds..

A prediction for 2061, really? It sounds really weird when people make predictions for a year that is too far away from now. Because we have no data that can support our prediction for a that far year. We can't even know that what is going to happen in the next year. But let's say this prediction really happened, then it would be really great to see Bitcoin price at a very high level like this. It has no upper limit in the end.

Gavin is certainly a bit of a puzzling man.  I like to read some of the old posts here on the forum and of course I've come across many from Gavin Andresen and there are so many great things/ideas that Gavin brought to the table back then. He seemed like a genuinely nice guy as well which makes it all the more difficult to dislike him but you are right he has certainly turned to the "dark side" as time has gone on.  Sad to see.

Almost interesting but for such a supposedly smart guy he does not seem to be able to make it much more complex, which I am sure will happen even in 10 years not 40 years. Imagine in the past 11 years how things massively changed. Of course it will be very different in 2031, not even to talk about 2061.

"Zero-privacy" Bitcoin hmm?

He's not smart. He just think that others are stupid and he is smarter than him. Personally I don't know why we should take BS predictions like these seriously. Anyone can pull out a number from their hat. But where is the justification? The arguments put forward by him is not 100% convincing. Although his arguments sounded much better than that loser McAfee, who predicted $1 million in 2020 without any supporting statement at all. When someone makes statements like these, it is only for publicity. In real life, who cares about 2061? Are you going to hold your coins until 2061?

I believe Gavin Andresen is a smart guy, but let's get real. I don't know anyone who can make a valid prediction about BTC in 2022. So making predictions about what's going to happen in 40 years is just crazy. It would be more useful trying to make predictions about the risks BTC is going to face in the next few years.

I have to start saving, 1000 satoshi for each address.

It is grim when his prediction is saying that main chain will stop, and other shit chains will continue.
More likely predictions is that all those centralized chains with fake bitcoin tokens will die long before Bitcoin chain stops, and something new and better will show up by year 2100 that is totally unrelated with Bitcoin or shitcoins.
Andresen have zero imagination.

That's hardly grim news that 20 out of a possible 21 million bitcoin are still in use some eighty years hence along with off-chain systems such as the Lightning Network taking over the day-to-day transactions.

With the price of bitcoin ever on the increase, it's already apparent that "Mom and Dad investors" will be forced out of the market and only those with increasingly deep pockets will remain.  Already stock markets see shares in the hundreds of dollars PER-SHARE and no one bats an eyelid.

I never cared about anyone saying anything regarding bitcoin before. That is the beauty of bitcoin, anyone can say anything they want and it will not have any impact in the future of it. You could try to drop the price or increase the price by saying stuff, I mean Biden could come up and say "bitcoin is a great product and I own some" and price would be 50k+ in a single minute, be 70k+ in a day.

However he could also say something bad and drop the price as well. None of this is a long term deal, it will not be good or bad forever just because someone said something. Fiat is not like that, politicians keep ruining fiat all over the world constantly. This is decentralization, stop caring what someone says, we will always be fine in the long run.

I remember the days when Gavin Andresen was treated like a God of Bitcoin, but his poor decisions have pushed him to the curb in the Crypto currency world. The guy could not handle the heat in the kitchen and then decided to bail.... after that he joined Mike Hearn to compete against Bitcoin...and that exploded in his face...

FakeToshi (CW) was his ultimate demise... fooling him to believe that he was the real Satoshi Nakamoto.. and making him look like an idiot.    I actually feel sorry for the guy... his Bitcoin faucet helped a lot of people in the beginning.  

And this may be the main reason for these... fantasies.
He may want to get people follow his moves again. He may be trying to earn some more awareness for his person.
And for this he has to get something "news worthy", no matter how far from reality it is. And science fiction about Bitcoin's future is easy: it can be anything, as long as it's shocking/impressive and it doesn't matter if it won't ever turn to be true.

Yes it looks like he is a big blocker, I think he is also against the idea of people running their own full Bitcoin nodes, and this two come hand in hand together.
Interesting thing that he made this post but disabled any comments on his blog or on his twitter post, and then he claimed he was censored on reddit, so I had to post his entire post in bitcointalk for open discussion.

If you look his other posts you can see that he is also against coin mixing saying it is bad, and he is talking more and more about ethereum, so no wonder he is pushing for ''tokens'' instead of Bitcoin.
Looks like even his old buddy Craig Wright rejected him so he is left only with Vitalik now  

Predicting Bitcoin in 2061? This guy is more delusional than I thought. This is another prediction statement without any guarantees that it would be true or not. There are so many so-called experts and analysts out there who are making their own predictions. Although a handful of them got it right, but for most of the time it won't happen. Cryptocurrency is unpredictable and they can't control that, not even Gavin Andersen.

Hard to believe what this guy says, I think it's a good idea to just ignore although that grim future is just scary, hopefully it's going to stay in fiction because I can see what's going to happen if the government controls everything, people are definitely going to suffer the most there. That's a really big number to be honest, and I don't see how it's going to go up to that point not to mention that even a 100k is still a pipe dream.

I don't even get the sense of predicting the price that far ahead really. Maybe after a decade is reasonable, but that's probably the max. A lot of things could change in 40 years, if he pretty much takes into account those and presented them in his prediction, well I'll be damned why hasn't he ascended yet. Pretty sure saying it's a piece of science fiction still isn't enough of an excuse to do so. Pretty sure the community would have multiple breakthroughs to resolve problems that would inevitably let it develop to a more suitable form of currency for all.

Predictions so far ahead are usually wrong. Andersen knows well the Bitcoin, its environment and its evolution, so he can make a prediction like this that may seem plausible, but from here to there to know if instead of multisig wallets something else has been invented that we cannot conceive now, or if the Bitcoin has disappeared and we live under a world dictatorship with a centralized monetary system, etc.

That's okay, we don't. Not everyone believes what this guy's saying so we don't have to worry that the bitcoin community would rally under one banner, I think the Elon incident is a good reminder as to why we don't have to believe what this people are saying.

True. Maybe he did consider the true hodler when he says "Most BTC (not all) is locked in multisig".

This may well be the future because people are willing to use Wrapped BTC to access DeFi and other kind of interest-yielding products on smart-contract enables blockchains.

There are two scenarios when this cannot happen:
1. If smart-contracts become native to BTC making all of this "token-bridging" a redundant service.
2. If people continue to hold majority of their BTC with their own keys in their personal wallets. (the way its meant to be).

Gavin's hypothesis is more a reflection of his bitterness about losing the blocksize debate than anything else. The biggest organizations running miner can be a scenario but that doesn't mean that that they'll send everything to 0x000...(which is just an asinine jump of imagination, btw); the rest of the ACTUAL users can always fork away their own blockchain separate from the so-called corporate blockchain which doesn't even have any bitcoins now.

As soon as miners go offline, the bitcoin network can run with even just 2 computers running the chain which users (Full nodes) agree is the Bitcoin chain. All they'll need is a coordinated update to their full nodes. Now in Gavin's dystopian future, if the corporations even end up owning Open Source Software to the extent that only THEIR chain can run, then well, there is no point arguing this extreme case.

TLDR; This is a pretty amateur argument and I would seriously expect better from an OG. He never really fails to show his lack of conviction and understanding when it comes to Bitcoin.

I can see that this loser (Gavin Andresen) has learnt a thing or two from what happened to John McAfee. Back in 2017 or 2018, McAfee made a prediction that Bitcoin will be worth $1 million per coin by 2021. And not surprisingly, that target was not achieved and McAfee was left with an egg in his face. Now coming to Andresen, he has given a target date of 2061. See how intelligent he is. Because even if the target is not achieved, no one is going to badmouth him. Because no one will remember Andresen and his stupid prediction by then.