Today we could hit the third lowest percent difference ever at close. GBTC would have to close below a 3.48% premium.
Using $1190 as the current btc price, $115 as the gbtc price, and 0.09336483 as the current btc/share, the premium is 3.5%.
Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 19. (Read 262354 times)
Using $1190 as the current btc price, $115 as the gbtc price, and 0.09336483 as the current btc/share, the premium is 3.5%.
Today we could hit the third lowest percent difference ever at close. GBTC would have to close below a 3.48% premium.
Here's a direct link to the Needham/Bogart report: https://www.scribd.com/document/339207005/Bitcoin-ETF-Digging-Deeper-on-Probability-and-Potential-Effect-1
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-investors-bet-the-sec-will-approve-cryptocurrency-etf-a-view-at-odds-with-analysts-2017-02-13
Quote
Despite skepticism from prominent lawyers and Wall Street analysts, bitcoin investors are increasingly confident the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve at least one of the three proposed bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds currently under consideration.
Pricing in futures contracts traded on BitMEX, a popular exchange that is incorporated in the Republic of Seychelles, as well as the rapidly declining premium for shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust traded on the secondary market suggest that some market participants are bracing for approval, said Spencer Bogart, an analyst at Needham & Co. Bogart is one of the few Wall Street analysts who cover Bitcoin.
The trust’s premium over bitcoin’s net asset value has shrunk from about 42.21% in early January to about 13% in recent trade, according to data provided by Grayscale.
The shrinking premium suggests investors are less willing to pay for shares of the trust because they expect one of the ETFs to be approved in the near future, Bogart said. Shares of a bitcoin ETF would likely trade much closer to the cryptocurrency’s net asset value, bitcoin watchers said.
The trading activity is at odds with the likelihood of approval tabulated by Bogart, who places it at less than 25%. Last month, a former lawyer for Gemini Trading, the bitcoin exchange operated by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, said he believed the SEC wouldn't approve the creation of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The SEC has said it would issue a ruling on the Winklevoss’s proposed bitcoin ETF, known as the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, by March 11.
Pricing in futures contracts traded on BitMEX, a popular exchange that is incorporated in the Republic of Seychelles, as well as the rapidly declining premium for shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust traded on the secondary market suggest that some market participants are bracing for approval, said Spencer Bogart, an analyst at Needham & Co. Bogart is one of the few Wall Street analysts who cover Bitcoin.
The trust’s premium over bitcoin’s net asset value has shrunk from about 42.21% in early January to about 13% in recent trade, according to data provided by Grayscale.
The shrinking premium suggests investors are less willing to pay for shares of the trust because they expect one of the ETFs to be approved in the near future, Bogart said. Shares of a bitcoin ETF would likely trade much closer to the cryptocurrency’s net asset value, bitcoin watchers said.
The trading activity is at odds with the likelihood of approval tabulated by Bogart, who places it at less than 25%. Last month, a former lawyer for Gemini Trading, the bitcoin exchange operated by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, said he believed the SEC wouldn't approve the creation of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The SEC has said it would issue a ruling on the Winklevoss’s proposed bitcoin ETF, known as the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, by March 11.
We're approaching the lowest % diff ever. If we get below the lowest in a year (8.68%, 2016/02/05), then you have to go back to October 2015 for lower days. The lowest ever was October 28th, 2015, where it got down to -4.32%.
My math comes out to 16.3% premium. If you are assuming 1/10th BTC / share that is no longer the case. Current BTC / share is 0.09350819.
https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/
You're right. I've been meaning to incorporate the BTC per share value into my spreadsheet. I've just updated it to account for this. To revise the above, extrapolating backwards from the January 31st BTC per share, the lowest in a year was still 2016/02/05, but it was a 13.89% premium. The lowest ever was also still the above date of October 28th, 2015, but it only got down to -0.29%.
We're approaching the lowest % diff ever. If we get below the lowest in a year (8.68%, 2016/02/05), then you have to go back to October 2015 for lower days. The lowest ever was October 28th, 2015, where it got down to -4.32%.
My math comes out to 16.3% premium. If you are assuming 1/10th BTC / share that is no longer the case. Current BTC / share is 0.09350819.
https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/
We're approaching the lowest % diff ever. If we get below the lowest in a year (8.68%, 2016/02/05), then you have to go back to October 2015 for lower days. The lowest ever was October 28th, 2015, where it got down to -4.32%.
besides the ETF will carry the same premiums
Of course, not.
GBTC had more than 100% premium at the point where the trade I described had the most sense (last July).
ETF would have low premium (most likely), similar to GLD/gold.
The last 3 months, GBTC has gone up 19.61%, while BTC has gone up 57.33%.
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
Quote
...suggesting that COIN and XBTC ETFs might have a chance.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
no, the ideal trade based on that premise would have looked like this (last July when premium was the highest):
Short GBTC, buy the equivalent $$ amount of bitcoin.
Almost no risk if you know that ETF is going to be approved eventually.
As you yourself pointed, that trade would have made almost 51% in a year (119.65-68.67) with almost ZERO risk.
AFAIK, GBTC can't be shorted because it is an OTC product, not exchange listed. The only way to make that trade is if you already hold some.
besides the ETF will carry the same premiums
The last 3 months, GBTC has gone up 19.61%, while BTC has gone up 57.33%.
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
Quote
...suggesting that COIN and XBTC ETFs might have a chance.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
no, the ideal trade based on that premise would have looked like this (last July when premium was the highest):
Short GBTC, buy the equivalent $$ amount of bitcoin.
Almost no risk if you know that ETF is going to be approved eventually.
As you yourself pointed, that trade would have made almost 51% in a year (119.65-68.67) with almost ZERO risk.
AFAIK, GBTC can't be shorted because it is an OTC product, not exchange listed. The only way to make that trade is if you already hold some.
The last 3 months, GBTC has gone up 19.61%, while BTC has gone up 57.33%.
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
Quote
...suggesting that COIN and XBTC ETFs might have a chance.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
no, the ideal trade based on that premise would have looked like this (last July when premium was the highest):
Short GBTC, buy the equivalent $$ amount of bitcoin.
Almost no risk if you know that ETF is going to be approved eventually.
As you yourself pointed, that trade would have made almost 51% in a year (119.65-68.67) with almost ZERO risk.
The last 3 months, GBTC has gone up 19.61%, while BTC has gone up 57.33%.
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
The last year, GBTC has gone up 68.67%, while BTC has gone up 119.65%.
Quote
...suggesting that COIN and XBTC ETFs might have a chance.
I don't know about that. Why would someone sell their shares of GBTC based on that premise, given that the underlying asset that they hold would be worth a lot more on the news of COIN or XBTC being approved?
Lowest diff in almost a year.
...suggesting that COIN and XBTC ETFs might have a chance.
GBTC price is lower now than it was when BTC was $600-700 last summer.
EDIT: some additional info that just came out
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/path-to-bitcoin-etf-still-uncertain-but-may-be-easier-under-trump-2017-01-30
Lowest diff in almost a year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/grayscale-investments-llc-ceases-private-140000550.html
I'm unclear on the meaning of this.
Are they suggesting that GBTC will use a different mechanism for purchasing shares going forward, or that they will no longer be maintaining the 10:1 ratio and instead letting the investment center around the number of coins currently held by the trust?
I'm unclear on the meaning of this.
Are they suggesting that GBTC will use a different mechanism for purchasing shares going forward, or that they will no longer be maintaining the 10:1 ratio and instead letting the investment center around the number of coins currently held by the trust?
They appear to be doing some kind of IPO of up to $500,000,000 dollar value, according to the document, and changing the way the shares work.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588489/000119312517013693/d157414ds1.htm
Quote
Prior to this offering, Shares were distributed by Genesis Global Trading Inc. (“Genesis”), acting as the initial purchaser and sole Authorized Participant, through sales in private placement transactions exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) pursuant to Rule 506(c) thereunder. After this offering, Shares will be distributed by Authorized Participants. Genesis will not act as an Authorized Participant in connection with the public offering of the Shares. It is expected that the Shares will be sold to the public at varying prices to be determined by reference to, among other considerations, the price of the bitcoins represented by each Share and the trading price of the Shares on NYSE Arca at the time of each sale. Shares registered hereby are of the same class and will have the same rights as the Shares distributed prior to this offering.
In exchange for issuing and redeeming Baskets of Shares, the Trust will receive from, or deliver to, Authorized Participants or Liquidity Providers (as defined herein) a number of bitcoins equal to the value of Shares in a Basket. As of the date of this prospectus, each Share represents approximately 0.094 of a bitcoin.
The Authorized Participants will not receive a selling commission or discount from the Trust in consideration of the distribution of Shares to the public through sale on NYSE Arca. Purchasers of Shares may be subject to customary brokerage charges. Investors should review the terms of their brokerage accounts for details on applicable charges. The Authorized Participants may receive commissions or fees from investors who purchase Shares offered hereby through their commission and fee-based brokerage accounts.
In exchange for issuing and redeeming Baskets of Shares, the Trust will receive from, or deliver to, Authorized Participants or Liquidity Providers (as defined herein) a number of bitcoins equal to the value of Shares in a Basket. As of the date of this prospectus, each Share represents approximately 0.094 of a bitcoin.
The Authorized Participants will not receive a selling commission or discount from the Trust in consideration of the distribution of Shares to the public through sale on NYSE Arca. Purchasers of Shares may be subject to customary brokerage charges. Investors should review the terms of their brokerage accounts for details on applicable charges. The Authorized Participants may receive commissions or fees from investors who purchase Shares offered hereby through their commission and fee-based brokerage accounts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/grayscale-investments-llc-ceases-private-140000550.html
I'm unclear on the meaning of this.
Are they suggesting that GBTC will use a different mechanism for purchasing shares going forward, or that they will no longer be maintaining the 10:1 ratio and instead letting the investment center around the number of coins currently held by the trust?
I'm unclear on the meaning of this.
Are they suggesting that GBTC will use a different mechanism for purchasing shares going forward, or that they will no longer be maintaining the 10:1 ratio and instead letting the investment center around the number of coins currently held by the trust?
GBTC new ATH established.
GBTC's at its lowest percent difference compared to the BTC price since the middle of April.
Hmm, and now, yesterday, it was the lowest percent difference since the end of March.
Lowest percent difference today since the end of February.
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