Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 29. (Read 262371 times)

no i think is bad ie bad for these type of products. if the early adopters to something (here a way of getting into the market without actually owning bitcoin) get burnt  - as i assume they bought their shares at a much higher value a year ago - and in the longer term there is no material benefit (premium) from doing something (eg buying GBTC over bitcoin itself) then GBTC will just wither on the vine.

thats actually pretty nice news. More people will want to invest as the price becomes more reasonable.

A couple more dollars and it might make for a reasonable investment.

The GBTC market closed at the all time low at 27.15 dollars per share (~280 dollars per bitcoin) with volume of 4950 shares (less than 490 bitcoins).



Meanwhile, the volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~949 bitcoins.

The premium is nearly gone, with 1500 share offer sitting at $26.
I wouldn't be surprised to see "The Maxim bid" - 50,000 shares, show up again tomorrow. It'd be amusing if they put it back at $35 - it would be viewed quiet differently than when they initially posted it :-)

I bought in (with HODL intentions, unless the market gets crazy). Half at 32.50, the other half at 28.50.

[ last updated 2015-05-21 ]

Greyscale BIT shares (GBTC) daily trading summary:

           !    OTX !    OTX !    FRT !    FRT !    FRT !    FRT !        FRT !       FRT !      FRT !          
Date       ! UpS_LO ! UpS_HI ! UpS_LO ! UpS_HI !   VSHR !   VBTC !       VUSD !       UpS !      UpB ! OBS      
-----------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+------------+-----------+----------+----------
2015-05-04 |  37.98 |  42.00 |    .   | 200.00 |    765 |   76.5 |        .   |    .      |    .     | (*0)(*1) 
2015-05-05 |  55.00 |  94.86 |  50.00 | 175.00 |    435 |   43.5 |   32198.00 |  74.01839 | 740.1839 | (*0)     
2015-05-06 |    .   |    .   |  65.00 |  68.00 |    125 |   12.5 |    8268.50 |  66.14800 | 661.4800 | (*0)     
2015-05-07 |  40.00 |  66.00 |  40.00 |  86.00 |   2844 |  284.4 |  163651.00 |  57.54255 | 575.4255 |          
2015-05-08 |  49.00 |  59.00 |  49.00 |  59.00 |  14807 | 1480.7 |  750019.70 |  50.65305 | 506.5305 |          

2015-05-11 |  50.00 |  57.95 |  49.50 |  57.95 |   2756 |  275.6 |  143247.34 |  51.97654 | 519.7654 |          
2015-05-12 |  49.00 |  50.01 |  49.00 |  52.25 |   2286 |  228.6 |  113299.25 |  49.56223 | 495.6223 |          
2015-05-13 |  49.00 |  49.00 |  49.00 |  50.00 |    327 |   32.7 |   16113.10 |  49.27554 | 492.7554 |          
2015-05-14 |  44.00 |  49.00 |  44.00 |  49.95 |  20894 | 2089.4 | 1004923.74 |  48.09628 | 480.9628 | (*2)     
2015-05-15 |  38.00 |  45.00 |  38.00 |  45.00 |   2320 |  232.0 |   97444.35 |  42.00188 | 420.0188 |          

2015-05-18 |  27.15 |  38.00 |  27.15 |  38.00 |   4950 |  495.0 |  158115.83 |  31.94259 | 319.4259 |          
2015-05-19 |  27.90 |  29.50 |  27.89 |  29.90 |   4308 |  430.8 |  122327.92 |  28.39552 | 283.9552 |          
2015-05-20 |  29.25 |  32.25 |  29.25 |  32.25 |   4859 |  485.9 |  148652.00 |  30.59313 | 305.9313 |          
2015-05-21 |  30.50 |  32.00 |  30.50 |  32.00 |   2882 |  288.2 |   90663.50 |  31.45854 | 314.5854 | 

"OTX" data from the GBTC quote page at OTCQX.
"FRT" data from the Freerealtime site, except those flagged (*0) and (*1) (see below).

UpS_LO = Lowest price (USD/share) in the specified day.

UpS_HI = Highest price (USD/share) in that day.

VSHR = Number of shares traded in that day.

VBTC = Number of BTC equivalent to those shares (ignoring fees) = VSHR*10.

VUSD = Trade volume in USD (sum over all trades of num of shares times price per share).

UpS = Average price in day (USD/share) = VUSD/VSHR.

UpB = Implied bitcoin price (USD/BTC) = VUSD*10/VSHR.

OBSERVATIONS:

(*0) The "FRT" price range for this entry was obtained from this post.

(*1) For 2015-05-04, the values of UpS_LO, VSHR, VUSD, and UpS could not
be determined; the value of VSHR was taken from the OTCQX page.

(*2) The summary pages at OTCQX and FreeRealTime.com say VSHR = 19894, but
adding the FreeRealTime list of trades we get 20894 (1000 more). The
VSHR value given above is the latter. There were 2 trades near the end of the
day; perhaps one was undoing the other?

The GBTC market closed at 38 dollars per share with volume of 2320 shares (less than 230 bitcoins).

The GBTC market closed at 45 dollars per share with volume of 19894 shares (less than 1950 bitcoins).



The previous volume record of 14807 on Friday was broken.

Oops.  And yep, looks like we closed with around $850k.

I think you mean $800k, not $80k.   Don't think we'll reach $1MM today but will come close.

Wonder if GBTC can make it to $1m in volume today, almost at $80k at this time.

As the premium to NAV keeps declining, FOMO on the premium may be accelerating some sales.

Yes but you can't sell them within 12 months so no real arb opp

They can buy new BIT shares from Second Market / Grayscale.

they should sell current shares and buy more to arbitrage already...

They just hoped this thing would have caused a mini bubble and they could sell more on top of it. The greatest part of their shares were bought from people at the top of the last bubble anyway for what I recall. Really a master plan if you look on the big picture. This time they failed and I will be more than happy to see this joke end.

I have 5 scenarios in mind.

1. It is a tiny portion of their net worth and they are willing to ride to the moon or $0.

2. It is a tiny portion of their net worth and they can't be arsed to bother transferring shares to sell.

3. They are waiting until Nov, Dec 2015 to use capital losses to offset capital gains in other arenas.

4. They are too incompetent/scared to buy and secure the same asset for less than half price, but still want to hodl.

5. Selling hundreds of thousands of shares would drive GBTC price to or below NAV of the trust.

Could they be waiting in the hope that the GBTC price will go higher?

That the BIT 12 month bagholders of 100's of thousands of shares refuse to sell at $490 per btc equiv? Me too.

I'm flabbergasted.

The GBTC market closed at 49 dollars per share with volume of 327 shares (less than 32.1 bitcoins).



It looks like OTCMarkets lied to me. GBTC officially closed at 49.95 yesterday, not at 49.00. Today it should be 49.00, though.

There were not many trades: