GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 49.

gotmilk_

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Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 08:42:14 AM

Quote from: brg444 on April 08, 2015, 08:39:19 AM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders. The more bagholders it has, the harder to go up.

I'm not saying it because there are 0 trades right now, which is obvious they couldn't send their shares there. I'm just saying my opinion of what I think is more likely to happen.

Is it not the case that some bought shares of BIT when price was around 100 and are not at a loss but a profit right now?

Do we have an estimate of what percentage of holders that might be?

Isn't the fund only around since late 2013? I mean sure there have still been lower prices, but right now we're approximately at the same levels with a chance for a turnaround. I wouldn't sell right now.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6449073

34k+ bought bellow the current price. Question is if those share holders already exit (until it was possible) or they still hold.
Anyway here is also a nice arbitrage for many there... selling old shares for 35$ and buying new bitcoins/shares (as investor into BIT) at current price.

ensurance982

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Quote from: brg444 on April 08, 2015, 08:39:19 AM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders. The more bagholders it has, the harder to go up.

I'm not saying it because there are 0 trades right now, which is obvious they couldn't send their shares there. I'm just saying my opinion of what I think is more likely to happen.

Is it not the case that some bought shares of BIT when price was around 100 and are not at a loss but a profit right now?

Do we have an estimate of what percentage of holders that might be?

Isn't the fund only around since late 2013? I mean sure there have still been lower prices, but right now we're approximately at the same levels with a chance for a turnaround. I wouldn't sell right now.

brg444

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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders. The more bagholders it has, the harder to go up.

I'm not saying it because there are 0 trades right now, which is obvious they couldn't send their shares there. I'm just saying my opinion of what I think is more likely to happen.

Is it not the case that some bought shares of BIT when price was around 100 and are not at a loss but a profit right now?

Do we have an estimate of what percentage of holders that might be?

ensurance982

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:28:56 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 08:26:17 AM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders.

So what, just a decrease in supply, if you ask me... If less people are willing to sell, less coins enter the open markets, which is better for the price.

They are bagholders already bought in. Not selling now doesn't mean they are big potential dumpers if price goes below $200.

Yeah I don't see them selling, either, but the total amount of coins in circulation is lower as long as they hold on to their coins. Yes, if they haven't sold now, they won't sell at $200. Works for me.

BitAddict

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Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 08:26:17 AM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders.

So what, just a decrease in supply, if you ask me... If less people are willing to sell, less coins enter the open markets, which is better for the price.

They are bagholders already bought in. Not selling now doesn't mean they are big potential dumpers if price goes below $200.
So, having bagholders at a big loss in a overall bearish market for one and a half year isn't bullish at all.

ensurance982

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Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders.

So what, just a decrease in supply, if you ask me... If less people are willing to sell, less coins enter the open markets, which is better for the price.

BitAddict

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Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders. The more bagholders it has, the harder to go up.

I'm not saying it because there are 0 trades right now, which is obvious they couldn't send their shares there. I'm just saying my opinion of what I think is more likely to happen.

ensurance982

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 08, 2015, 07:54:18 AM

I bet BIT will provide liquidity (at least for the ask side)... one way or another.

Why are they buying shares instead of bitcoin directly? Maybe they just like "old and traditional" way of trading. Those investors looks completely different on their investments.

It's the way these investment vehicles works. It's also something the investors from Wall Street don't really care about. It's the ease of use for them, the way they can do their taxes the old way and the fact that it's regulated.

gotmilk_

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Activity: 442

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I bet BIT will provide liquidity (at least for the ask side)... one way or another.

Why are they buying shares instead of bitcoin directly? Maybe they just like "old and traditional" way of trading. Those investors looks completely different on their investments.

ensurance982

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

ensurance982

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Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Trust me!

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 07, 2015, 02:00:27 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on April 02, 2015, 04:14:12 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 02, 2015, 04:09:55 PM

Any trades yet?

Not a bean - http://quotes.wsj.com/GBTC

inb4 secondmarket exit scam

How would they pull of an exit scam? This isn't your old unregulated Bitcoin stock without any rules and legal consequences in place. This thing is working on the 'good' old financial system.

BitAddict

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I indeed think BIT hodlers won't be interested in selling unless a high price is offered to them, since most of them are underwater.

The main question is why on hell someone on his sane mind would prefer to pay a high premium for the BIT shares, that are worse than bitcon itself, you have to pay maintenance fees and you can only sell in their own platform. If liquidity there dies you are trapped big time.

Everybody is expeting greater fools paying high premium for this shares, but I highly doubt it will happen (more than the initial rush).
So I bet this market won't have volume at all, unless first we see a big decline or a big rally and that shares starts to move.

phoenix1

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Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 08, 2015, 07:25:16 AM

Maybe sellers already got certificates but they are not willing to sell? After all this are long term investors... Many probably won't even look at those certificates for next 5 years.

I think this is quite likely to be the outcome, hence why I think it will be a low liquidity fail

gotmilk_

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Quote from: phoenix1 on April 08, 2015, 04:35:06 AM

Is there a way to find out how many tradeable shares in GBTC have been created through the 'conversion process'?
If I understand correctly, SMBIT stakeholders have to 'convert' their 'stake' to GBTC shares in order to be able to sell them. As such, one would expect there to be a way to track this as it is effectively the max liquidity pool in the 'EFT' at any given time.
If nobody is converting, nothing can happen. Who would invest without knowing approx how many tradeable shares there are, not just how many are eligible for conversion?

Personally I am expecting a low liquidity 'fail', and probably a more volatile price than BTC itself, but lets wait and see Wink

EDIT: Just been looking back over the thread and it seems my interpretation was incorrect. No 'conversion' needs to take place and 'eligible sellers' will be sent share certificates with instructions on how to sell it they so desire.

So why the hell is it taking so long ??

Maybe sellers already got certificates but they are not willing to sell? After all this are long term investors... Many probably won't even look at those certificates for next 5 years.

phoenix1

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Is there a way to find out how many tradeable shares in GBTC have been created through the 'conversion process'?
If I understand correctly, SMBIT stakeholders have to 'convert' their 'stake' to GBTC shares in order to be able to sell them. As such, one would expect there to be a way to track this as it is effectively the max liquidity pool in the 'EFT' at any given time.
If nobody is converting, nothing can happen. Who would invest without knowing approx how many tradeable shares there are, not just how many are eligible for conversion?

Personally I am expecting a low liquidity 'fail', and probably a more volatile price than BTC itself, but lets wait and see Wink

EDIT: Just been looking back over the thread and it seems my interpretation was incorrect. No 'conversion' needs to take place and 'eligible sellers' will be sent share certificates with instructions on how to sell it they so desire.

So why the hell is it taking so long ??

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on April 07, 2015, 08:05:28 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 07, 2015, 03:56:50 PM

Quote from: Fabrizio89 on April 07, 2015, 01:51:37 PM

Many more bids today, one is at 35.75

bids for $1000/btc go through on localbitcoins.com sometimes too ...

Bids don't mean actually executed orders and $35.75 means $350 per Bitcoin, a far stretch from $1,000.

And I bet the $1000/BTC bids on local Bitcoins are people trying to get lucky from uneducated buyers and rarely and few such orders would ever happen.

Finally, nobody watches localbitcoins while BIT is being watched by everyone, including the media and if we start getting orders being executed at way above market value and with any regularity then I would expect a lot of press and I would expect arbitrage players to quickly close the gap by driving the price of Bitcoin up.

... point being it is like the butchers shop in the old Soviet Union "oh those prices are for sausages that don't exist maam"

at least lowly localbitcoins has actual trades but bids without trades are just fantasy markets.

Cconvert2G36

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I find the list of participants more interesting than the prices and number of shares, both of which will instantly change when someone decides they would like to sell their "bagholding" BIT shares.

backb

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Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 07, 2015, 08:35:00 PM

Updated with new bid from Maxim Group LLC today.

Code:

Maxim Group LLC		   	   100  35.75
KCG Americas LLC		   100	35.55                   
Canaccord Genuity Inc		   100	35.51
Wedbush Securities Inc		   100	31.50
Citadel Securities		   143	25.00
Puma Capital, LLC		   100	25.00
Merriman Curhan Ford & Co	   100	20.00

Wow a lot! That's total 743 shares !! 74 BTC bids !!!
Looks like some serious wall street rich guys are geting in and the massive adoption demand !
Time to cheat more greater fools to buy so you can dump your bags !

Cconvert2G36

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Updated with new bid from Maxim Group LLC today.

Code:

Maxim Group LLC		   	   100  35.75
KCG Americas LLC		   100	35.55                   
Canaccord Genuity Inc		   100	35.51
Wedbush Securities Inc		   100	31.50
Citadel Securities		   143	25.00
Puma Capital, LLC		   100	25.00
Merriman Curhan Ford & Co	   100	20.00

Vlad2Vlad

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www.ixcoin.net

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 07, 2015, 03:56:50 PM

Quote from: Fabrizio89 on April 07, 2015, 01:51:37 PM

Many more bids today, one is at 35.75

bids for $1000/btc go through on localbitcoins.com sometimes too ...

Bids don't mean actually executed orders and $35.75 means $350 per Bitcoin, a far stretch from $1,000.

And I bet the $1000/BTC bids on local Bitcoins are people trying to get lucky from uneducated buyers and rarely and few such orders would ever happen.

Finally, nobody watches localbitcoins while BIT is being watched by everyone, including the media and if we start getting orders being executed at way above market value and with any regularity then I would expect a lot of press and I would expect arbitrage players to quickly close the gap by driving the price of Bitcoin up.

Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 49. (Read 262371 times)