GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 48.

ensurance982

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 10, 2015, 11:55:58 AM

Quote from: windpath on April 10, 2015, 11:28:00 AM

Will the "shares must be held for a year before they can be converted" always be true?

IIRC, that is explained in the SEC filing posted earler in this thread.

IIRC, the nswer is "yes", but you'd better check.

EDIT: However, that holds for new shares issued by Greyscale to the high-level brokers. As I understood, those shares will be tradeable immediately, they only cannot be returned to Greyscale. So the individual investors who bought shares from brokers will not have to worry about that. It affects only those individuals who bought directly from SecondMarket in the past

Well, the whole fund is basically created using a loophole, isn't it? I guess it's just things we have to deal with until a 'real' ETF comes around. Better than nothing, I guess

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: windpath on April 10, 2015, 11:28:00 AM

Will the "shares must be held for a year before they can be converted" always be true?

IIRC, that is explained in the SEC filing posted earler in this thread.

IIRC, the nswer is "yes", but you'd better check.

EDIT: However, that holds for new shares issued by Greyscale to the high-level brokers. As I understood, those shares will be tradeable immediately, they only cannot be returned to Greyscale. So the individual investors who bought shares from brokers will not have to worry about that. It affects only those individuals who bought directly from SecondMarket in the past

windpath

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Will the "shares must be held for a year before they can be converted" always be true?

DonQuijote

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♠ ♥ ♣ ♦ < ♛♚&#

jl2012

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Just want to say that BIT has not updated their page since late March

ensurance982

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Two weeks? I see, they are predestined to be the company responsible to perform share transfers in a Bitcoin-related fund. Can't make this up....

phoenix1

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Quote from: jehst on April 08, 2015, 10:47:07 PM

I've just received word from one of the shareholders.

Continental Stock Transfer & Trust, the company responsible for transferring the shares, needs an additional two weeks to verify share ownership and draft the ownership documents.

LMAO!!

Apparently they are concerned that if they launch now, some early investors may exit with a profit, so they are delaying until price is lower Cheesy

Cconvert2G36

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Quote from: mmortal03 on April 08, 2015, 10:00:23 AM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 07, 2015, 08:45:06 PM

I find the list of participants more interesting than the prices and number of shares, both of which will instantly change when someone decides they would like to sell their "bagholding" BIT shares.

It's the names of the brokerage firms that are placing their clients bids, right?

Market makers on OTC might place both bid and ask orders (two weeks?!?). That's the goal of level II, to provide some liquidity to traders using the exchange. Their compensation for this is derived from maintaining a spread.

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

I've just received word from one of the shareholders.

Continental Stock Transfer & Trust, the company responsible for transferring the shares, needs an additional two weeks to verify share ownership and draft the ownership documents.

jamesg

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Quote from: Torque on April 08, 2015, 10:18:32 AM

What would be the point? That would be like trying to sell Gold ETFs at a 250% premium to Gold spot price.

To go short GBTC and make easy money.

Torque

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 08, 2015, 10:06:39 AM

By the way, even if no investors want to sell for the current price, I would think that some should post offers to sell at a sufficiently high price. No?

What would be the point? That would be like trying to sell Gold ETFs at a 250% premium to Gold spot price.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: mmortal03 on April 08, 2015, 10:00:23 AM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 07, 2015, 08:45:06 PM

I find the list of participants more interesting than the prices and number of shares, both of which will instantly change when someone decides they would like to sell their "bagholding" BIT shares.

It's the names of the brokerage firms that are placing their clients bids, right?

Or market-makers building some initial liquidity, in anticipation.

By the way, even if no investors want to sell for the current price, I would think that some should post offers to sell at a sufficiently high price. No?

mmortal03

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Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 07:45:54 AM

The main question is why on hell someone on his sane mind would prefer to pay a high premium for the BIT shares, that are worse than bitcon itself, you have to pay maintenance fees and you can only sell in their own platform. If liquidity there dies you are trapped big time.

There are people with ROTH IRA portfolios containing funds that they can't take out without a penalty until retirement age.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: Torque on April 08, 2015, 09:51:59 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 08, 2015, 09:12:13 AM

I find it hard to believe that nobody will want to sell. Surely some will have lost faith and will want to cut their losses, or will need the money for some emergency/

Anyone with $25K lying around to invest in a high risk asset hardly needs any emergency money, lol. And loss cutters already did so in January.

An "emergency" could be an opportunity to invest in some promising startup, buy a house, etc.

Very few investors had an opportunity to cut their losses. The maturity period may have been 6 months when the fund started, but it is now 12 months. Redemptions have been blocked since Oct/2014, and investors were not allowed to sell their shares to anyone else besides BIT. So the only opportunity for loss cutting was the window between Mar 2014 and Oct 2014 for 6-month maturity shares, or just Sep-Oct 2014 for 12-month maturity. At that time people may have been more optimistic about future recovery than they are now. That may explain the relatively small amount of redemptions listed on that report.

mmortal03

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Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on April 07, 2015, 08:45:06 PM

I find the list of participants more interesting than the prices and number of shares, both of which will instantly change when someone decides they would like to sell their "bagholding" BIT shares.

It's the names of the brokerage firms that are placing their clients bids, right?

Torque

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 08, 2015, 09:12:13 AM

I find it hard to believe that nobody will want to sell. Surely some will have lost faith and will want to cut their losses, or will need the money for some emergency/

Anyone with $25K lying around to invest in a high risk asset hardly needs any emergency money, lol. And loss cutters already did so in January.

JorgeStolfi

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PS. According to their 2014 report filed with the SEC (available through the OTCQX page), there have been some redemptions in 2014. The ~69 M$ figure I computed is the net total investment to date; if those redemptions were made at profit, the actual amount invested by the current BIT share holders was even larger than the net total.

PS2. Also from that report, I understood the bitcoins held by Greyscale are not insured against theft, embezzlement, or accidental loss; and Greyscale refuses to be held liable for losses to investors resulting from such events. Could someone please confirm this?

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 08, 2015, 07:25:16 AM

Maybe sellers already got certificates but they are not willing to sell? After all this are long term investors... Many probably won't even look at those certificates for next 5 years.

I find it hard to believe that nobody will want to sell. Surely some will have lost faith and will want to cut their losses, or will need the money for some emergency/

According to the data posted by the OP, there may be between 200'000 and 300'000 BIT shares that were issued in September and October of 2013, when the price was ~130 $/BTC. Their owners could sell now at ~250 $/BTC and still make a respectable ROI. All shares issued after the first week of Nove/2013 were sold above today's price.

However, ~180'000 of those shares (~18'000 BTC) were the "seed" provided by the fund creators. They may have different motivations than ordinary investors.

By the way, that is the main motivation for someone to create a fund: it is a way to sell a large hoard of BTC to a new market ("old-fashioned investors"), therefore without depressing the price. And then also maybe make some money from fees, if the fund becomes popular. Even if they play strictly by the rules and don't try to trade with their BTC holdings.

backb

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Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 08:42:14 AM

Quote from: brg444 on April 08, 2015, 08:39:19 AM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders. The more bagholders it has, the harder to go up.

I'm not saying it because there are 0 trades right now, which is obvious they couldn't send their shares there. I'm just saying my opinion of what I think is more likely to happen.

Is it not the case that some bought shares of BIT when price was around 100 and are not at a loss but a profit right now?

Do we have an estimate of what percentage of holders that might be?

Isn't the fund only around since late 2013? I mean sure there have still been lower prices, but right now we're approximately at the same levels with a chance for a turnaround. I wouldn't sell right now.

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 07, 2015, 07:00:21 PM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 07, 2015, 12:41:53 PM

I really don't get why anyone would want to sell their GBTC coins at current prices, to be honest... I mean they all bought in at higher prices and they are obviously investors who aren't in for the daily fluctuations, thus they most likely can afford to wait, as well.

Yes, very investors bought in Sep-Oct 2013 when BTC was cheaper than today. (The first ~18'000 BTC apparently were "seed" investment by the fund creators themselves.) Most investment occured between Nov/2013 and May/2014.

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2015-02-12-smbit-plot.jpg

[ click on plot for full version ]

BTW,, there are no "GBTC coins". Those are BIT shares; GBTC is just their ticker symbol on OTCQX, just as AAPL is the symbol for Apple shares on NYSE.

ensurance982

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Quote from: gotmilk_ on April 08, 2015, 08:52:10 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 08:42:14 AM

Quote from: brg444 on April 08, 2015, 08:39:19 AM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 08, 2015, 08:24:05 AM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 08, 2015, 07:50:07 AM

If I take it correctly, it is pretty easy: Either people are not willing to sell at this moment (hell, how can it be any more bullish than that?) or they just can't sell as of now and it still takes some time, then you can make exactly *zero* conclusions from the lack of trades occurring...

People trapped in the fund, at a loss, not willing to sell doesn't mean it is bullish. It only means they are bagholders. The more bagholders it has, the harder to go up.

I'm not saying it because there are 0 trades right now, which is obvious they couldn't send their shares there. I'm just saying my opinion of what I think is more likely to happen.

Is it not the case that some bought shares of BIT when price was around 100 and are not at a loss but a profit right now?

Do we have an estimate of what percentage of holders that might be?

Isn't the fund only around since late 2013? I mean sure there have still been lower prices, but right now we're approximately at the same levels with a chance for a turnaround. I wouldn't sell right now.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6449073

34k+ bought bellow the current price. Question is if those share holders already exit (until it was possible) or they still hold.
Anyway here is also a nice arbitrage for many there... selling old shares for 35$ and buying new bitcoins/shares (as investor into BIT) at current price.

Those numbers are pretty old already, though. Yeah the arbitrage-opportunity is there. I think it will be interesting to see, how many people are going to take it, and on what volume.

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