GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 5.

plusalpha789

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Quote from: DieJohnny on January 26, 2018, 12:37:49 AM

Everyone knows other funds will come out and the premium will go away, but until then there is only one game in town.

GBTC IS NOT the only game in town, it is just the most expensive by far. That was the whole point of this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.28835640 As I write this, GBTC's premium to underlying bitcoin value is 74%, thanks to the split enabling a new cohort of buyers in the last couple days. As word spreads that there are near-zero-premium alternatives available, that premium is going to come down.

Bitcoinaire

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The split is bullish and many will jump in now that the price is low.

Samarkand

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Quote from: MrSunshine on January 29, 2018, 05:04:26 PM

Nice to see the GBTC spilt went off without a hitch. I was a little worried it might tank, but it finished with a 6% gain. It will be interesting to see how GBTC responds the next time BTC has big run up.

I admit that I´m a little surprised about the whole price action surrounding the GBTC split.

After the announcement of the split the price increased by 12 % and now after the actual
split it increased by another 6 % as you pointed out. Maybe this is the same psychological
bias that was/is driving the rise of some high-supply altcoins. People just are more likely
to invest in something that appears cheap on the surface.

Besides, it is interesting that a single GBTC share now represents only a tiny 0.00101 Bitcoins.

MrSunshine

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Nice to see the GBTC spilt went off without a hitch. I was a little worried it might tank, but it finished with a 6% gain. It will be interesting to see how GBTC responds the next time BTC has big run up.

MrSunshine

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Quote from: DieJohnny on January 26, 2018, 12:37:49 AM

Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 10:28:14 PM

Quote from: plusalpha789 on January 25, 2018, 10:23:09 PM

Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 08:24:36 PM

Does anyone know how many bitcoin GBTC holds? Can they prove that they have that amount? Is it in line with the fund's market cap?

Market cap is 1.63x the underlying bitcoin, that's why the Sweden and Stuttgart ETNs I posted about are a much better value, near zero premium instead of 63%. As for them "proving" they have that amount, I don't know and it is a good question! I do know that their holdings are not insured, so futures imo are safer (as well as being basically premium-free).

63% premium is insane! I agree that futures are a better option, or directly owning crypto. It sounds like if bitcoin does really crash hard, GBTC holders will be hit the hardest.

Everyone knows other funds will come out and the premium will go away, but until then there is only one game in town. Lots of FUD to get people to share their GBTC, if we get true bear market territory (sub 9k) then you will see the premium disappear. Until then GBTC holders are betting the price goes up 60% before other funds come around.

During the China FUD back in September, when BTC got cut in half almost overnight, GBTC still kept like a 75% premium. It is the only easy game in town, so the premium stays until a true ETF comes out. The SEC has said BTC appears dangerous so don't expect an ETF soon.

CrazyLoaf

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DieJohnny

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Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 10:28:14 PM

Quote from: plusalpha789 on January 25, 2018, 10:23:09 PM

Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 08:24:36 PM

Does anyone know how many bitcoin GBTC holds? Can they prove that they have that amount? Is it in line with the fund's market cap?

Market cap is 1.63x the underlying bitcoin, that's why the Sweden and Stuttgart ETNs I posted about are a much better value, near zero premium instead of 63%. As for them "proving" they have that amount, I don't know and it is a good question! I do know that their holdings are not insured, so futures imo are safer (as well as being basically premium-free).

63% premium is insane! I agree that futures are a better option, or directly owning crypto. It sounds like if bitcoin does really crash hard, GBTC holders will be hit the hardest.

Everyone knows other funds will come out and the premium will go away, but until then there is only one game in town. Lots of FUD to get people to share their GBTC, if we get true bear market territory (sub 9k) then you will see the premium disappear. Until then GBTC holders are betting the price goes up 60% before other funds come around.

mmortal03

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Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 10:28:14 PM

63% premium is insane! I agree that futures are a better option, or directly owning crypto. It sounds like if bitcoin does really crash hard, GBTC holders will be hit the hardest.

One thing that's been convenient is that they've been doing dividend distributions for forks such as BCH, BTG, and B2X.

ktabb

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Quote from: plusalpha789 on January 25, 2018, 10:23:09 PM

Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 08:24:36 PM

Does anyone know how many bitcoin GBTC holds? Can they prove that they have that amount? Is it in line with the fund's market cap?

Market cap is 1.63x the underlying bitcoin, that's why the Sweden and Stuttgart ETNs I posted about are a much better value, near zero premium instead of 63%. As for them "proving" they have that amount, I don't know and it is a good question! I do know that their holdings are not insured, so futures imo are safer (as well as being basically premium-free).

63% premium is insane! I agree that futures are a better option, or directly owning crypto. It sounds like if bitcoin does really crash hard, GBTC holders will be hit the hardest.

Syke

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Quote from: mmortal03 on January 25, 2018, 09:51:34 PM

As of December 31st, it held 0.09181239 BTC per share. We're about to have a stock split, though, happening tomorrow, so this figure will no longer be accurate per share, but the amount of BTC will still be proportional to this after the 1 to 91 stock split.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bitcoin-investment-trust-announces-stock-split-300581752.html

Quote

1,916,600 shares of the Trust issued and outstanding as of the date of this press release

So they should have about 176k btc now.

Most recent audit summary, for 2016:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588489/000119312517158456/d157414ds1a.htm#fin157414_7

Bitcoins as of Dec 31 2016:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588489/000119312517158456/d157414ds1a.htm#fin157414_9

Quote

172,094.67544221

plusalpha789

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Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 08:24:36 PM

Does anyone know how many bitcoin GBTC holds? Can they prove that they have that amount? Is it in line with the fund's market cap?

Market cap is 1.63x the underlying bitcoin, that's why the Sweden and Stuttgart ETNs I posted about are a much better value, near zero premium instead of 63%. As for them "proving" they have that amount, I don't know and it is a good question! I do know that their holdings are not insured, so futures imo are safer (as well as being basically premium-free).

mmortal03

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Quote from: ktabb on January 25, 2018, 08:24:36 PM

Does anyone know how many bitcoin GBTC holds? Can they prove that they have that amount? Is it in line with the fund's market cap?

As of December 31st, it held 0.09181239 BTC per share. We're about to have a stock split, though, happening tomorrow, so this figure will no longer be accurate per share, but the amount of BTC will still be proportional to this after the 1 to 91 stock split.

ktabb

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Does anyone know how many bitcoin GBTC holds? Can they prove that they have that amount? Is it in line with the fund's market cap?

plusalpha789

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Quote from: CrazyLoaf on January 25, 2018, 03:13:38 PM

IB screwed me over and I tried getting into Fidelity to buy the same asset before and they said IRAs *could not* use foreign currency (even if just swapping to a SEK-denominated asset) and they could not trade COINXBT.

There is a fellow on SeekingAlpha who recently was able to do the trade in an IRA at Fidelity: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137459-bitcoin-altcoins-missing-wave?ifp=0&v=1516625100 (toward bottom, posts by Jim Craddock this afternoon)

CrazyLoaf

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CrazyLoaf

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plusalpha789

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Quote from: CrazyLoaf on January 25, 2018, 02:20:53 PM

Can you provide more detail on this? I asked Fidelity multiple times if they offered COINXBT and COINETH as recently as last month and they said that they did not. Also, please note above where I said Interactive Brokers delisted this stock and also forced liquidation on the position today. Who is to say that Fidelity won't do the same thing?

I'm fairly certain that the GBTC premium will remain until another US based alternative emerges for non-accredited investors. I held COINXBT for years and I will have to pay so much in short-term gains taxes as a result of Interactive Broker's honestly shitty handling of this situation that it would have honestly been better if I had just paid the 30% premium to GBTC on a recent large purchase I made early 2017 (hence the short-term gain tax).

As long as your Fido account is enabled for international trading, just go to trade / international tab and then enter as a symbol BITCOIN_XBT:SE or BITCOIN_XBTE:SE (SEK and euro, respectively, and the symbols are probably specific to Fidelity).

For anyone else not at Fidelity, if your broker can't handle these ETNs, it might be worth transferring your account. Each GBTC share you replace with one of the zero-premium European-traded ETNs saves you something like $635, based on the current high GBTC premium.

Here is a link to a small test trade I did at Fidelity the other day: https://stocktwits.com/plusalpha/message/110305506

megadeth

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Quote from: CrazyLoaf on January 25, 2018, 02:20:53 PM

Quote from: plusalpha789 on January 25, 2018, 06:40:32 AM

More info on exchange-traded Ethereum vehicle - trades in Europe but available to U.S. investors using Fidelity and possibly other brokers:

You can google “Ethereum XBT” or “COINETH”. Details can be found at

http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE144580 (trading in Sweden in krona) and

http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE144581 (trading in Stuttgart in euro)

https://xbtprovider.com/ provides NAVs. The ETNs trade very close to NAV, instead of the substantial premium that GBTC trades at in the U.S. vs. its underlying value in bitcoin. The availability of these to U.S. investors is another reason that GBTC's current 63% premium to NAV might come down.

At Fidelity, taxable accounts can execute online, the Fidelity symbols are ETHEREUM_XBT:SE (trading in Sweden in krona) and ETHEREUM_XBTE:SE (trading in Stuttgart in euro). For an IRA, the trade can only be placed with a human, not online, by calling their international desk at 800-544-2976, so the commission is higher than for online trades in a taxable account.

Can you provide more detail on this? I asked Fidelity multiple times if they offered COINXBT and COINETH as recently as last month and they said that they did not. Also, please note above where I said Interactive Brokers delisted this stock and also forced liquidation on the position today. Who is to say that Fidelity won't do the same thing?

I'm fairly certain that the GBTC premium will remain until another US based alternative emerges for non-accredited investors. I held COINXBT for years and I will have to pay so much in short-term gains taxes as a result of Interactive Broker's honestly shitty handling of this situation that it would have honestly been better if I had just paid the 30% premium to GBTC on a recent large purchase I made early 2017 (hence the short-term gain tax).

You can move the funds to Fido and buy back the ETN's

CrazyLoaf

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plusalpha789

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More info on exchange-traded Ethereum vehicle - trades in Europe but available to U.S. investors using Fidelity and possibly other brokers:

You can google “Ethereum XBT” or “COINETH”. Details can be found at

http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE144580 (trading in Sweden in krona) and

http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE144581 (trading in Stuttgart in euro)

https://xbtprovider.com/ provides NAVs. The ETNs trade very close to NAV, instead of the substantial premium that GBTC trades at in the U.S. vs. its underlying value in bitcoin. The availability of these to U.S. investors is another reason that GBTC's current 63% premium to NAV might come down.

At Fidelity, taxable accounts can execute online, the Fidelity symbols are ETHEREUM_XBT:SE (trading in Sweden in krona) and ETHEREUM_XBTE:SE (trading in Stuttgart in euro). For an IRA, the trade can only be placed with a human, not online, by calling their international desk at 800-544-2976, so the commission is higher than for online trades in a taxable account.

------------------------------
ADDED Jan. 30:
To trade any of these at Fidelity, make sure your account is enabled for international trading, then hover over "Accounts & Trade" until you get the dropdown > select "Trade" > "International" tab > then enter one of the Fidelity-specific symbols such as "ETHEREUM_XBT:SE". If you have any trouble or need to do the trade in an IRA, which requires a human, call their international desk is at 800-544-2976.

Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 5. (Read 262371 times)