_______________________________________________________________________________ ____An updated version of the below writeup can be found here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.29315403_______________________________________________________________________________ ____I’m a newbie to the forum and have read little of this thread, but strongly suggest that anyone long GBTC consider selling, and soon if at all. GBTC’s absurd premium to NAV has been due to the
false narrative that GBTC is the only available pure-play way of gaining exposure to bitcoin in an exchange-traded vehicle. In fact, there are alternatives in Europe that trade at a
near-zero premium to NAV, and these
are available to U.S. investors, depending on the broker used.
Below is a writeup that I’ve done for SeekingAlpha on a non-exclusive basis, that seems to be in their queue awaiting review/editing. I’m assuming it is taking awhile in my case because I’m a new author there.
Bitcoin Investment Trust – the 62% premium to NAV is based on a fallacy- GBTC currently trades at a 62% premium to underlying value based on the fallacy that it is the only exchange-traded bitcoin product available
Alternative ETNs trade at a near-zero premium to NAV in Sweden and Stuttgart, and are available to U.S. investors (depending on the broker used)
Availability depends on the broker – Fidelity allows trading of both securities, Schwab and Interactive Brokers do not currently (although IB did at one time). Have not checked others.
At Fidelity at least, the ETNs are eligible to be placed in IRA accounts
GBTC’s 62% premium to underlying bitcoin value will collapse as this information becomes disseminated
GBTC is an ETN that has generally traded at a large premium to its underlying value of 0.09181239 bitcoin (more info at
https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/#overview). As of today’s close (Tue. Jan. 23), it traded for 1652.65 per share (pre the 91:1 split taking effect Friday), compared to its underlying NAV of 1021.81 per share (calculated by taking the 4 PM ET bitcoin price from bitstamp times 0.09181239 bitcoin per share). This represents a premium to underlying value of about 62%. Buying some is somewhat like paying $162 for a $100 bill.
Historically, the premium has been due to the
false narrative that GBTC is the only available pure-play way of gaining exposure to bitcoin in an exchange-traded vehicle. In fact, there are alternatives in Europe that trade at a near-zero premium to NAV. Just google “COINXBT”. Some details, including ISIN etc., for the ETN trading in Sweden can be found here:
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE109538. And details for the sister ETN trading in Germany can be found here:
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE113749. NAVs can be found here:
https://xbtprovider.com/.
Generally both trade close to NAV (e.g., zero premium), in contrast to the 62% premium for GBTC. I have accounts at three brokerages. Fidelity allows trading of both the European ETNs. Schwab does not. Interactive Brokers does not (although it used to). I even placed a small order, which executed, at Fidelity (not more because I am already long a basket of crypto and don’t need more and would prefer futures over an ETN anyway).
I also confirmed with Fidelity that both the Sweden-traded and the sister Stuttgart-traded ETNs can be held in IRAs. This last point is key. After bitcoin futures became available in the U.S. last month, GBTC "premium apologists" claimed that the GBTC premium was justified, as GBTC was the only way of getting pure bitcoin exposure into an IRA. That is not true.
Details at Fidelity are as follows. Taxable accounts can execute online, the symbols are BITCOIN_XBT:SE (trading in Sweden, in krona) and BITCOIN_XBTE:SE (trading in Germany, in euro). For an IRA, the trade can only be placed with a human, not online, by calling their international desk at 800-544-2976, so the commission is higher than for online trades in a taxable account. I only checked with Fidelity, Schwab, and IB, so I don't know which other brokers, besides Fidelity, might offer trading in these ETNs. Perhaps if readers find others, the information could be added in comments below.
Given that GBTC sells for a premium of 62%, or about $631 per share, every share of GBTC sold at that premium and replaced with COINXBT can save the investor roughly $631 before commissions/fees. If you own, or have been considering, GBTC as a long, check with your broker…if yours doesn’t allow trading of COINXBT instead of GBTC, it might be worthwhile finding one who does…as long as the high GBTC premium persists, that is. We think the premium is likely to begin compressing quickly once this information is disseminated.
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ADDED Jan. 30:(1) To trade any of these at Fidelity, make sure your account is enabled for international trading, then hover over "Accounts & Trade" until you get the dropdown > select "Trade" > "International" tab > then enter one of the Fidelity-specific symbols such as "BITCOIN_XBT:SE". If you have any trouble or need to do the trade in an IRA, which requires a human, call their international desk is at 800-544-2976.
(2) There are also sister exchange-traded
Ethereum vehicles, similarly available to U.S. investors (including IRAs) via Fidelity (and possibly other brokers)...further details are in post 2096, some of which is repeated here:
You can google “Ethereum XBT” or “COINETH”. Details can be found at
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE144580 (trading in Sweden in krona) and
http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/etninfo?Instrument=SSE144581 (trading in Stuttgart in euro)
https://xbtprovider.com/ provides NAVs. The ETNs trade very close to NAV, instead of the substantial premium that GBTC trades at in the U.S. vs. its underlying value in bitcoin. The availability of these to U.S. investors is another reason that GBTC's current 70% premium (as of 1/29) to NAV might come down.
At Fidelity, taxable accounts can execute online, the Fidelity symbols are ETHEREUM_XBT:SE (trading in Sweden in krona) and ETHEREUM_XBTE:SE (trading in Stuttgart in euro). For an IRA, the trade can only be placed with a human, not online, by calling their international desk at 800-544-2976, so the commission is higher than for online trades in a taxable account.
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ADDED Jan. 30, part 2:GBTC premium can be calculated as follows (post the Jan. 29 91:1 stock split):
0.00100733 bitcoin per share GBTC (per the sponsor:
https://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/times bitcoin price from
https://www.bitstamp.net/market/tradeview/ equals underlying net asset value.
Compare to GBTC price.
At 4pm close Jan. 30, NAV, GBTC price 17.51, a 74% premium to the NAV of 10.07 (0.00100733 bitcoin/share x 9979 bitcoin price)
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DISCLOSURE: I/we are short shares of GBTC, and long a basket of cryptocurrencies. (The hedge isn’t purely bitcoin because we believe Ethereum and certain other cryptocurrencies will outperform bitcoin.)