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Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 69. (Read 262357 times)

legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
November 19, 2014, 09:20:28 AM

In principle, yes. That's why I've said for a while now, in opposition to some of the uberbulls, that if truly big capital wants to enter, they will probably do so off-exchange, by contractually binding large mining operations' outputs to themselves. That might still leave traces in the overall supply situation and have some effect on on-exchange prices, but probably be less of an impact than if they'd outright buy the same amounts on-exchange.

Anyway, the above is conjecture: it's only to point out why it is possible that big capital is entering a substantial position without us noticing directly that this is happening.

SecondMarket buys are publicly visible (or at least: the outcome is visible publicly, we don't know where and how they're getting their orders filled), that much is clear. So the psychological effect (if it exists) does apply.

But maybe I misunderstood the question?


*insulting garbage*

dont mess with oda. he is smarter than you by several orders of magnitude.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
November 19, 2014, 08:42:09 AM
IDK, it seems pretty significant to me. Imagine how much of the volume is daytrading garbage... 6k of real buys is probably the net change of 60k+ volume... or 600k+ on Chinese exchanges.
If you constantly remove 1k BTC a day from markets, it will cause upward pressure, of course, but it will take time for it to build. I don't think these 20k are significant, unless buying continues at the same pace for a couple of months.

There are two aspects of large, public buys or sells: the net effect on overall buying/selling, and the psychological effect. Your point re: net effect is correct of course, but the same could then be said (more or less) about the SR auctions (which are also just a week or two of mining subsidies). What it ignores is the substantial effect such orders have on the market in addition to it. Similarly to how Bitstamp's "bearwhale" created panic at first, then, when it turned out there is actually the demand to absorb the offer, created a (minor) rally, I believe that there's a (hard to quantify maybe) market impact of learning that large, presumably private, investors are buying at these prices, more than they did in the months before.
Don't you think that it's not that difficult to mask your buys? Because if you mask them properly, I believe you can avoid the psychological effect.

In principle, yes. That's why I've said for a while now, in opposition to some of the uberbulls, that if truly big capital wants to enter, they will probably do so off-exchange, by contractually binding large mining operations' outputs to themselves. That might still leave traces in the overall supply situation and have some effect on on-exchange prices, but probably be less of an impact than if they'd outright buy the same amounts on-exchange.

Anyway, the above is conjecture: it's only to point out why it is possible that big capital is entering a substantial position without us noticing directly that this is happening.

SecondMarket buys are publicly visible (or at least: the outcome is visible publicly, we don't know where and how they're getting their orders filled), that much is clear. So the psychological effect (if it exists) does apply.

But maybe I misunderstood the question?
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
November 19, 2014, 08:25:53 AM
IDK, it seems pretty significant to me. Imagine how much of the volume is daytrading garbage... 6k of real buys is probably the net change of 60k+ volume... or 600k+ on Chinese exchanges.
If you constantly remove 1k BTC a day from markets, it will cause upward pressure, of course, but it will take time for it to build. I don't think these 20k are significant, unless buying continues at the same pace for a couple of months.

There are two aspects of large, public buys or sells: the net effect on overall buying/selling, and the psychological effect. Your point re: net effect is correct of course, but the same could then be said (more or less) about the SR auctions (which are also just a week or two of mining subsidies). What it ignores is the substantial effect such orders have on the market in addition to it. Similarly to how Bitstamp's "bearwhale" created panic at first, then, when it turned out there is actually the demand to absorb the offer, created a (minor) rally, I believe that there's a (hard to quantify maybe) market impact of learning that large, presumably private, investors are buying at these prices, more than they did in the months before.
Don't you think that it's not that difficult to mask your buys? Because if you mask them properly, I believe you can avoid the psychological effect.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
November 19, 2014, 08:25:32 AM
This trust is one of the biggest bagholders and their buying really does not mean a lot - at least till now it didn't (no reference to buying and future price rises).

These kind of trusts will mostly be bubble pumpers and bagholders of every next bubble.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
November 19, 2014, 07:10:27 AM
6348XBT was bought with $2.42M
Shocked The third time now!
sr. member
Activity: 442
Merit: 250
November 19, 2014, 04:56:49 AM
They (alone) are taking off the market almost 1/3 of the weekly coin supply. For the third week in a row  Grin
 
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
November 19, 2014, 04:38:38 AM
04 Nov    + 7,629 BTC   
11 Nov    + 6,847 BTC
18 Nov   another 7K ?




It was mean to be a joke  Shocked

It has been noted before that they seemed to buy at 1 week intervals (or do their accounting once a week).  But it was on Thursdays, IIRC...

I am still wondering about that puzzling SEC order. 
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
November 19, 2014, 04:24:25 AM
IDK, it seems pretty significant to me. Imagine how much of the volume is daytrading garbage... 6k of real buys is probably the net change of 60k+ volume... or 600k+ on Chinese exchanges.
If you constantly remove 1k BTC a day from markets, it will cause upward pressure, of course, but it will take time for it to build. I don't think these 20k are significant, unless buying continues at the same pace for a couple of months.

There are two aspects of large, public buys or sells: the net effect on overall buying/selling, and the psychological effect. Your point re: net effect is correct of course, but the same could then be said (more or less) about the SR auctions (which are also just a week or two of mining subsidies). What it ignores is the substantial effect such orders have on the market in addition to it. Similarly to how Bitstamp's "bearwhale" created panic at first, then, when it turned out there is actually the demand to absorb the offer, created a (minor) rally, I believe that there's a (hard to quantify maybe) market impact of learning that large, presumably private, investors are buying at these prices, more than they did in the months before.
legendary
Activity: 1473
Merit: 1086
November 19, 2014, 03:43:23 AM
04 Nov    + 7,629 BTC   
11 Nov    + 6,847 BTC
18 Nov   another 7K ?




It was mean to be a joke  Shocked

 Shocked

Wary, i think you have a special gift.. Shocked
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Who's there?
November 19, 2014, 02:11:22 AM
04 Nov    + 7,629 BTC   
11 Nov    + 6,847 BTC
18 Nov   another 7K ?




It was mean to be a joke  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
November 19, 2014, 01:33:35 AM
IDK, it seems pretty significant to me. Imagine how much of the volume is daytrading garbage... 6k of real buys is probably the net change of 60k+ volume... or 600k+ on Chinese exchanges.
If you constantly remove 1k BTC a day from markets, it will cause upward pressure, of course, but it will take time for it to build. I don't think these 20k are significant, unless buying continues at the same pace for a couple of months.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
November 19, 2014, 01:13:39 AM
IDK, it seems pretty significant to me. Imagine how much of the volume is daytrading garbage... 6k of real buys is probably the net change of 60k+ volume... or 600k+ on Chinese exchanges.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
November 19, 2014, 12:55:10 AM
I wonder how liquid the OTC market is. These buys are not that large, one could buy that much (say, 1k a day for 7k a week) on the exchanges without significantly moving prices.
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1111
November 19, 2014, 12:39:21 AM
6348XBT was bought with $2.42M
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
November 18, 2014, 08:00:28 PM
another 6300+ bought.
All the three big buys since two weeks ago have some in common.
Every buy is about $2.5 M
all happen at Tuesday

Where do you see 6300+ bought today?

Could be weekly OTC deal with large mining farm.

I'm not sure how they operate, but wouldn't they be required to be 'fully invested'?  If so, the $2+ million buy would represent a $2+ million in flow.  Who they buy the coin from isn't really a big concern.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
November 18, 2014, 07:06:08 PM
another 6300+ bought.
All the three big buys since two weeks ago have some in common.
Every buy is about $2.5 M
all happen at Tuesday

Where do you see 6300+ bought today?

Could be weekly OTC deal with large mining farm.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
November 18, 2014, 06:11:03 PM
Looks like another $2+ million USD just flow in base on NAV / share of 37.21 & Net Assets of 48.56
sr. member
Activity: 442
Merit: 250
November 18, 2014, 05:56:39 PM
another 6300+ bought.
All the three big buys since two weeks ago have some in common.
Every buy is about $2.5 M
all happen at Tuesday

Where do you see 6300+ bought today?

Maybe he is talking about the Asian exchanges which usually fake their volume

Hint... read all posts in this thread again.
newbie
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
November 18, 2014, 05:51:14 PM
I calculated with the formula in the first post and the daily updated number.
sr. member
Activity: 323
Merit: 251
November 18, 2014, 05:49:26 PM
another 6300+ bought.
All the three big buys since two weeks ago have some in common.
Every buy is about $2.5 M
all happen at Tuesday

Where do you see 6300+ bought today?

Maybe he is talking about the Asian exchanges which usually fake their volume
No, he calculated it with the formula in the first post and the daily updated numbers from bitcointrust.co.
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