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Topic: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 67. (Read 262371 times)

N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
December 02, 2014, 10:23:51 AM
BTC worth 10M$ bought last month by Secondmarket.

Bullish?





Glad to see you're finally coming around.

Yes, agreed. Very bullish. Thanks for putting it in such a concise way.
Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
December 02, 2014, 10:21:44 AM
BTC worth 10M$ bought last month by Secondmarket.

Bullish?





Glad to see you're finally coming around.

Yes, agreed. Very bullish. Thanks for putting it in such a concise way.

 Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
December 02, 2014, 06:53:02 AM
BTC worth 10M$ bought last month by Secondmarket.

Bullish?





Glad to see you're finally coming around.

Yes, agreed. Very bullish. Thanks for putting it in such a concise way.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
December 01, 2014, 03:18:54 PM

wasn't hsbc the biggest money launderer in the world? - I remember some stuff with iran as well as with gaddafi and drug cartels...

Probably.  And even these terrorist money launderers don't want to deal with a Bitcoin biz Sad
Anyhow, irrelevant.  The question still stands:

Bullish?
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
December 01, 2014, 03:13:40 PM

wasn't hsbc the biggest money launderer in the world? - I remember some stuff with iran as well as with gaddafi and drug cartels...
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 1313
December 01, 2014, 01:31:31 PM
How can that be bullish?

How can what be bullish?  The $2.5 million a week in new buys over the last month?
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
December 01, 2014, 10:55:47 AM
How can that be bullish?
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
November 29, 2014, 04:18:52 PM
This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November
What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?

It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.


I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?
It is also not total buying, it is net buying as I would find it highly probable that some people are selling their shares for various reasons. So if clients sell a total of 1 million dollars worth of shares and clients buy a total of 3.5 million dollars worth of shares then the net change would be 2.5 million dollars
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
November 29, 2014, 01:59:44 AM
Have you heard the words slander and libel Stolfi?

It was not me who claimed that the SEC has prohibited SMBIT to liquidate (buy back) their client shares, but did not prohibit them to sell more shares.  If that claim were true, then SMBIT would be a Roach Motel type of fund, like MtGOX in its final days.  That claim is much worse for SMBIT's public image than what I fantasized above.  I even questioned the person who posted that claim, and I still cannot quite believe it.  Would you please ask him whether he knows those words?

I insist: SMBIT has the right to keep their procedures and situation secret, but then the public has the right to consider all the possible wrong things that they may be doing.  That is the smart thing to do before entering any business.  The word for it is "prudence".

EDIT: by the way: in the beginning, SMBIT had promised that, by the end of 2014, they would set up an open market where clients could trade SMBIT shares among themselves, presumably even during the initial 6-month lock-in period.  Any word from them about that promise?
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
November 28, 2014, 10:22:50 PM
Meh. This forum would be empty if opinions and ideas posted here would be held to the highest standards.

Just look at it like that: one day, we'll look back on our time in the forum here and will reminisce about that cranky CS prof who posted among us and entertained us with his crazy theories. And we'll do so while floating on an air mattress in a pool full of diamonds.(1)




(1) Obligatory "rich beyond our wildest dreams" addendum to keep the readers happy Cheesy

True. I am just a bit cranky today because I am off work with stomach flu. Cramps are not fun. It maybe a secondary case of internet overload syndrome Smiley

Edit: yep crazy prof is harmless fun
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
November 28, 2014, 06:33:08 PM
Meh. This forum would be empty if opinions and ideas posted here would be held to the highest standards.

Just look at it like that: one day, we'll look back on our time in the forum here and will reminisce about that cranky CS prof who posted among us and entertained us with his crazy theories. And we'll do so while floating on an air mattress in a pool full of diamonds.(1)




(1) Obligatory "rich beyond our wildest dreams" addendum to keep the readers happy :D
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
November 28, 2014, 06:22:35 PM
This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November
What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?
It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.
I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?

We don't know really, we are just guessing, based on the observation that the recent buys are much larger than usual, they come after a period of stagnation, they started with no obvious external cause,  they are almost the same size in USD (but less so in BTC), and the size in USD is a round number (2.5  M$), within the errors of the estimates.

If there were many clients buying shares, why would they all start buying at the same time, considering that the price does not give any clear signs of recovery?  Why would their buys add up to ~2.5 M$ every week, four weeks in a row?

It is of course possible that there are no clients buying shares, and SMBIT just decided to but BTC anyway, using their dollar reserves.

Here is another wild theory: the SEC found that they were doing something wrong, ordered them to suspend selling and liquidating shares, and required a change in their procedures -- that forced them to buy a lot more BTC than they had bought so far.  So they are buying as far as they can, that being 2.5 M$ every week.  (Yeah, it is total fantasy; but since SMBIT is so opaque, they can't complain if people start making wild theories...)

Have you heard the words slander and libel Stolfi?
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
November 28, 2014, 05:53:33 PM
This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November
What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?
It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.
I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?

We don't know really, we are just guessing, based on the observation that the recent buys are much larger than usual, they come after a period of stagnation, they started with no obvious external cause,  they are almost the same size in USD (but less so in BTC), and the size in USD is a round number (2.5  M$), within the errors of the estimates.

If there were many clients buying shares, why would they all start buying at the same time, considering that the price does not give any clear signs of recovery?  Why would their buys add up to ~2.5 M$ every week, four weeks in a row?

It is of course possible that there are no clients buying shares, and SMBIT just decided to but BTC anyway, using their dollar reserves.

Here is another wild theory: the SEC found that they were doing something wrong, ordered them to suspend selling and liquidating shares, and required a change in their procedures -- that forced them to buy a lot more BTC than they had bought so far.  So they are buying as far as they can, that being 2.5 M$ every week.  (Yeah, it is total fantasy; but since SMBIT is so opaque, they can't complain if people start making wild theories...)
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
November 28, 2014, 03:46:09 PM
This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November
What do you mean?  Isn't this just SecondMarket buying?

It is assumed that SMBIT only buys BTC when some client buys their shares (10 shares = 1 BTC).  If that is true, there seems to be a client who buys 2.5 million dollars worth of shares each week.  But we do not know, really.


I don't really understand why we're assuming that it's a single client. Secondmarket just updates the aggregate figures every week or so, as far as I can see; how are we reading anything about number of clients purchasing into that?
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
November 28, 2014, 02:36:40 PM
yesterday bought 2100+ (11/25/2014)
today bought 4500+ (11/26/2014)
two day together, another ~ $2.5 M was added.

updated. This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

Nice  Cool 4th week in a row!!

Yeah this is a very good indicator of true interest. And meanwhile Bitcoins on exchanges get cheaper, man these markets are inefficient.

Just wait Smiley

Long term free markets are highly efficient Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
November 28, 2014, 11:41:25 AM
yesterday bought 2100+ (11/25/2014)
today bought 4500+ (11/26/2014)
two day together, another ~ $2.5 M was added.

updated. This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

Nice  Cool 4th week in a row!!

Yeah this is a very good indicator of true interest. And meanwhile Bitcoins on exchanges get cheaper, man these markets are inefficient.

Just wait Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
November 28, 2014, 02:10:42 AM
yesterday bought 2100+ (11/25/2014)
today bought 4500+ (11/26/2014)
two day together, another ~ $2.5 M was added.

updated. This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

Nice  Cool 4th week in a row!!

Yeah this is a very good indicator of true interest. And meanwhile Bitcoins on exchanges get cheaper, man these markets are inefficient.
sr. member
Activity: 442
Merit: 250
November 27, 2014, 05:33:06 AM
yesterday bought 2100+ (11/25/2014)
today bought 4500+ (11/26/2014)
two day together, another ~ $2.5 M was added.

updated. This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November

Nice  Cool 4th week in a row!!
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