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Topic: $GBTC Speculation, Information, and Cogitation - page 2. (Read 11792 times)

sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
The volume of GBTC was less than 282 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~331 dollars per bitcoin.



The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~681 bitcoins today.

sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
The volume of GBTC was less than 476 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~326 dollars per bitcoin.



The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~455 bitcoins today.

sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
The volume of GBTC was less than 422 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~300 dollars per bitcoin.



The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~547 bitcoins today.

hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
BIT shares (GBTC) daily trading summary:


           !   OTX !   OTX !   FRT !    FRT !    FRT !        FRT !       FRT !    
Date       !  PRLO !  PRHI !  PRLO !   PRHI !   VSHR !       VUSD !      PRAV ! OBS
-----------+-------+-------+-------+--------+--------+------------+-----------+----------
2015-05-04 | 37.98 | 42.00 |   .   | 200.00 |    765 |        .   |    .      | (*0)(*1)
2015-05-05 | 55.00 | 94.86 | 50.00 | 175.00 |    435 |   32198.00 |  74.01839 | (*0)
2015-05-06 |   .   |   .   | 65.00 |  68.00 |    125 |    8268.50 |  66.14800 | (*0)
2015-05-07 | 40.00 | 66.00 | 40.00 |  86.00 |   2844 |  163651.00 |  57.54255 |    
2015-05-08 | 49.00 | 59.00 | 49.00 |  59.00 |  14807 |  750019.70 |  50.65305 |    

2015-05-11 | 50.00 | 57.95 | 49.50 |  57.95 |   2756 |  143247.34 |  51.97654 |    
2015-05-12 | 49.00 | 50.01 | 49.00 |  52.25 |   2286 |  113299.25 |  49.56223 |    
2015-05-13 | 49.00 | 49.00 | 49.00 |  50.00 |    327 |   16113.10 |  49.27554 |    
2015-05-14 | 44.00 | 49.00 | 44.00 |  49.95 |  20894 | 1004923.74 |  48.09628 | (*2)
2015-05-15 | 38.00 | 45.00 | 38.00 |  45.00 |   2320 |   97444.35 |  42.00188 |    

2015-05-18 | 27.15 | 38.00 | 27.15 |  38.00 |   4950 |  158115.83 |  31.94259 |    
2015-05-19 | 27.90 | 29.50 | 27.89 |  29.90 |   4308 |  122327.92 |  28.39552 | 


"OTX" data from the GBTC quote page at OTCQX.
"FRT" data from the Freerealtime site, except those flagged (*0) and (*1) (see below).

PRLO = Lowest price in specified day.

PRHI = Highest price in the specified day.

VSHR = Number of shares traded in day.

VUSD = Trade volume in USD (sum over all trades of num of shares times price per share).

PRAV = Average price in day = VUSD/VSHR.

OBSERVATIONS:

(*0) The "FRT" price range for this entry was obtained from this post.

(*1) For 2015-05-04, the values of PRLO, VSHR, VUSD, and PRAV could not
be determined; the value of VSHR was taken from the OTCQX page.

(*2) The summary pages at OTCQX and FreeRealTime.com say 19894, but
adding the FreeRealTimes list of trades we get 20894 (1000 more). The
VSHR value given is the latter. There were 2 trades near the end of the
day; perhaps one was undoing the other?

sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
The GBTC market closed at the all time low at 27.15 dollars per share (~280 dollars per bitcoin) with volume of 4950 shares (less than 490 bitcoins).



Meanwhile, the volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~949 bitcoins.

legendary
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
I think XBT Provider stole the steam of this one.
sr. member
Activity: 868
Merit: 250
Now 31. The "steam" is out. It's only a matter of time when it will trade at fair value, especially when you can get in (via a $25k investment into the fund)  at the BTC-exchange price.
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
Well we hit $35.
No real volume to support the level. Now we get to find out if the initial, large $35 Bid by Maxim will serve as support.
Watching with interest this morning.

EDIT: Well that took about 30 seconds. We just sold at $34. I think now we are more likely to drop quite a bit, then find the real bottom/equilibrium, somewhere between 0 and 50%.
legendary
Activity: 2422
Merit: 1451
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
15% losses! Ouchy, if there's actual arbitrage going on, we could expect the price going even lower depending on to what extent this is followed. For the short term, I do expect the price rebounding a little after such losses.
sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
The GBTC market closed at 38 dollars per share with volume of 2320 shares (less than 230 bitcoins).
Isnt that 232 bitcoins? So just over 230?
Actually no ... note that 1 share is 'approx 0.1 BTC', which translates as '0.1 BTC - (2% pa, comound)'. At the moment it looks like it is about .0965 BTC > about 225 BTC  Wink
Another typical BTC 'sleight of hand'  Roll Eyes - should be made much clearer on that quote page than it is. Instant 3.5% haircut ... wahooooo !!
Yeah, I haven't bothered to figure out what the exact BTC value of GBTC is, so I've been just taking 2% off and then throwing out some roundish number above that.
legendary
Activity: 889
Merit: 1013
Posted on reddit:

Seeking Alpha, Jordan Flannery May. 15, 2015
Bitcoin Investment Trust: Avoid This Vehicle As It Trades At 101% Premium To NAV
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3188116-bitcoin-investment-trust-avoid-this-vehicle-as-it-trades-at-101-percent-premium-to-nav

That's funny -

beware because GBTC will likely converge with the NAV over the long term, so you might be paying too much by buying shares at NAV which trade at a 100% premium to NAV a year later.

Like anyone knows what BTC will be worth in a year! If you're worried about a possible factor of 2 in either direction in a year, bitcoin is not for you =D


sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Jordan Flannery... such advice, many insight.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Posted on reddit:

Seeking Alpha, Jordan Flannery May. 15, 2015
Bitcoin Investment Trust: Avoid This Vehicle As It Trades At 101% Premium To NAV
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3188116-bitcoin-investment-trust-avoid-this-vehicle-as-it-trades-at-101-percent-premium-to-nav
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
The GBTC market closed at 38 dollars per share with volume of 2320 shares (less than 230 bitcoins).


Isnt that 232 bitcoins? So just over 230?

Actually no ... note that 1 share is 'approx 0.1 BTC', which translates as '0.1 BTC - (2% pa, comound)'. At the moment it looks like it is about .0965 BTC > about 225 BTC  Wink
Another typical BTC 'sleight of hand'  Roll Eyes - should be made much clearer on that quote page than it is. Instant 3.5% haircut ... wahooooo !!

https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/

It may have some sort of tax benefits, but Shillbert is levying his own tax ...

And people are STILL paying a premium for this low liquidity shite  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
The GBTC market closed at 38 dollars per share with volume of 2320 shares (less than 230 bitcoins).


Isnt that 232 bitcoins? So just over 230?
sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
The GBTC market closed at 38 dollars per share with volume of 2320 shares (less than 230 bitcoins).

sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
It appears that Maxim is no longer providing a floor (close to recent trades.) Without the floor, it's no surprise the price fell a lot on low volume.
I think most of the buyers sellers were exhausted yesterday. Hopefully monday brings some more buyers sellers.

This asset is severely constrained in ask supply only. The only part of the buy-side that is in short supply are the people willing to pay ridiculous 100% markups.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
It appears that Maxim is no longer providing a floor (close to recent trades.) Without the floor, it's no surprise the price fell a lot on low volume.
I think most of the buyers were exhausted yesterday. Hopefully monday brings some more buyers.
sr. member
Activity: 470
Merit: 250
It appears that Maxim is no longer providing a floor (close to recent trades.) Without the floor, it's no surprise the price fell a lot on low volume.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
Volume spikes and dies, it's pretty easy to understand that it's just some arbitrage goin on infact the price is correcting and coming down to reality (don't forget that part of the premium is because it's tax free)
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