Topic: $GBTC Speculation, Information, and Cogitation - page 4. (Read 11792 times)
The GBTC market closed at 49 dollars per share with volume of 2286 shares (less than 225 bitcoins).
I'm legitimately surprised exchange prices arnt rising with these steady gbtc prices.
Don't be so surprised. Clue: 228.6 pseudo-BTC total volume for today.
I'm legitimately surprised exchange prices arnt rising with these steady gbtc prices.
Thanks phoenix1! I updated the intro post to include it.
Sellers sold into the $49 on volume today. They blinked. You give 'em an inch...
I anticipate MAXM to post a Bid below $49 tomorrow. My guesses:
a) 30% - post a 100 share Bid offer at $47 or $48.
b) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $45
c) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $35
d) 20% - hold the line at $49.
Choosing a) or d) if they'd like to accumulate while walking the market down slowly and/or hold the line, and b) or c) if they'd like to accelerate the price decrease before making the bulk of their purchase.
If this plays out, it will of course be how the sellers respond that will drive the outcome.
Good to see volume hold up today, it was looking thin at the start of the day.
Sellers sold into the $49 on volume today. They blinked. You give 'em an inch...
I anticipate MAXM to post a Bid below $49 tomorrow. My guesses:
a) 30% - post a 100 share Bid offer at $47 or $48.
b) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $45
c) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $35
d) 20% - hold the line at $49.
Choosing a) or d) if they'd like to accumulate while walking the market down slowly and/or hold the line, and b) or c) if they'd like to accelerate the price decrease before making the bulk of their purchase.
If this plays out, it will of course be how the sellers respond that will drive the outcome.
Good to see volume hold up today, it was looking thin at the start of the day.
You might want to tag this page ... best so far for charts and NAV of GBTC 
https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/
https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/
Courtesy of 'bad trader' from another thread:
The GBTC market closed at 50 dollars per share with volume of 2756 shares (less than 275 bitcoins).
The volume was lower than Thursday's 2844. It remains to be seen if Friday's high volume was an anomaly.
The GBTC market closed at 50 dollars per share with volume of 2756 shares (less than 275 bitcoins).
The volume was lower than Thursday's 2844. It remains to be seen if Friday's high volume was an anomaly.
Only orders >=100 shares are 'guaranteed' to show, and even then, it is not certain.
The OTC rules are funny.
So your order was likely filled by grabbing shares offered at a better price than those listed.
Shares in the same position as yours.
Here is a historical log of all actual trades.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229
The OTC rules are funny.
So your order was likely filled by grabbing shares offered at a better price than those listed.
Shares in the same position as yours.
Here is a historical log of all actual trades.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229
Some people would prefer not to pay taxes if given the choice, but you are correct with this thinking and that is why the premium is most likely a reflection of the tax rate of it's buyers with a little boost for those who are ignorant and hit buy without researching. This is something I wasn't expecting, and if it holds true for COIN, things could get interesting, particularly for the ones who bought all the BTC for the fund. It's starting to make sense now why the Winks didn't bat an eyelash at selling $1,000 BTC. They're going to make an absolute killing on premiums and maintenance fees. It's actually scary how rich they would become if BTC is truly successful in the long term.
If COIN can achieve top brand status, they could very well make a killing. I'm not sure if it'll be socially on par with building a Facebook but it could end up more profitable in the long-term. The tax thing is likely a huge motivator. If you're paying capital gains of 15% or more if short term or in a greedy state, the price doesn't have to rise that much (in Bitcoin historical terms) for it to end up profitable versus buying BTC.
The trading experience is unique or maybe it isn't but others can confirm if they're seeing the same thing. My first trade went for more than I asked for though it was a small quantity limit order. The second was big enough but doesn't seem to have shown up all that clearly in the volume. Though I figured out who my orders would show up as, it seems they are only provided in aggregate with whoever is trying to trade through them and if I'm not the best bid or ask, my order is hidden.
Why would one buy a BTC for $490, when the price on US-regulated exchanges is $244?
The answer to this question is simple. The only advantage in buying this fund over buying BTC straight is the ability to purchase in your tax shielded accounts. Therefore, the logical explanation is that people are paying a premium to get exposure to tax free BTC gains. If you believe the price is headed to $10,000, you would much rather purchase at $500 without tax liabilities than to purchase at $250 with tax liabilities. That is the only logical explanation for the premium we are seeing.
Then we had to see these premiums on other funds too, like commodity or currency ETFs. E.g. I can put GLD easily into a tax shielded account, but not gold bullion. Nonetheless there is no premium on GLD.
You can buy physical gold in a tax shielded account.
This is a moot point anyway as you can buy more than 2 bitcoins for one "GBTC" bitcoin and come ahead even in a taxed account as long as your taxes are less than 50%.
In addition, most retirement accounts are tax-deferred, not untaxable (except Roth where you are taxed ufront).
In addition, most retirement accounts are tax-deferred, not untaxable (except Roth where you are taxed ufront).
Some people would prefer not to pay taxes if given the choice, but you are correct with this thinking and that is why the premium is most likely a reflection of the tax rate of it's buyers with a little boost for those who are ignorant and hit buy without researching. This is something I wasn't expecting, and if it holds true for COIN, things could get interesting, particularly for the ones who bought all the BTC for the fund. It's starting to make sense now why the Winks didn't bat an eyelash at selling $1,000 BTC. They're going to make an absolute killing on premiums and maintenance fees. It's actually scary how rich they would become if BTC is truly successful in the long term.
Oh just another day of Wall Street paying huge premiums for GBTC. Nothing to get excited about of course!!!
I will be really excited when I see more BTC being bought through Second Market with the thought that the $GBTC sells are doubling down on their number of BTC
Oh just another day of Wall Street paying huge premiums for GBTC. Nothing to get excited about of course!!!
Sitarow, I moved up your summary of the BIT into the first reserved comment slot.
Squawk if you'd like any changes, or if you'd like me to remove it, or your attribution.
Thank you for putting that together.
I have a few more reserved slots, because I think there are a few community knowledge gaps.
The big one where I think Grayscale Invest could have done better is to provide a
"Trading GBTC For Dummies" page.
They have a unique (?) experience where their primary market base will be comprised of people previously inexperienced with OTC trading.
I went through this experience, learning on the first day, and trying to communicate and clarify those ambiguities.
Fear keeps people from trading.
I would have LOVED to see a page.
Top 5 commonly asked questions, with simple answers. Explaining the common misperceptions that seem like 'bugs'. Explaining at a high level the relationship between $GBTC shares and the coins held in the BIT.
Not seeing your trades show up, or having questionable price-range displays. Perfectly normal for someone accustomed to OTC prices. Scary to someone inexperienced, and coming from a background of BTC where price discrepancies can be a canary for an exchange about to have big problems.
Sorry to state the obvious, but I'm too wordy to put together concise answers to "the big questions".
If someone thought it worth creating, that is what one of the other reserved spots was for.
Squawk if you'd like any changes, or if you'd like me to remove it, or your attribution.
Thank you for putting that together.
I have a few more reserved slots, because I think there are a few community knowledge gaps.
The big one where I think Grayscale Invest could have done better is to provide a
"Trading GBTC For Dummies" page.
They have a unique (?) experience where their primary market base will be comprised of people previously inexperienced with OTC trading.
I went through this experience, learning on the first day, and trying to communicate and clarify those ambiguities.
Fear keeps people from trading.
I would have LOVED to see a page.
Top 5 commonly asked questions, with simple answers. Explaining the common misperceptions that seem like 'bugs'. Explaining at a high level the relationship between $GBTC shares and the coins held in the BIT.
Not seeing your trades show up, or having questionable price-range displays. Perfectly normal for someone accustomed to OTC prices. Scary to someone inexperienced, and coming from a background of BTC where price discrepancies can be a canary for an exchange about to have big problems.
Sorry to state the obvious, but I'm too wordy to put together concise answers to "the big questions".
If someone thought it worth creating, that is what one of the other reserved spots was for.
If you trade on GBTC you don't have to sign-up to a Bitcoin exchange.
Most pro traders prefer having a single interface that allows you to trade thousands of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies etc. - trading would be very annoying if you had to sign up to a few hundred platforms
Most pro traders prefer having a single interface that allows you to trade thousands of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies etc. - trading would be very annoying if you had to sign up to a few hundred platforms
is somewhere explained how to participate in this GBTC?
So how can someone like us buy/sell GBTC there to fill this small orderbook?
So how can someone like us buy/sell GBTC there to fill this small orderbook?
Well, you can sell GBTC if you held SecondMarket BIT shares for at least one year (which I assume you don't since you ask). If you want to buy, you have to be an accredited investor in the US and you can buy the shares through your regular broker, I believe. If you don't know what an ETF is, chances are you won't be easily able to buy any shares - no offense.
I want to share this ^_^ comment here for those that may not be following the other GBTC conversations.
http://www.bitcointrust.co/
BIT INVESTMENT DETAILS
Quote
INVESTMENT MINIMUM:
$25,000
INVESTOR QUALIFICATION:
Accredited investor
ANNUAL ADMINISTRATIVE AND SAFEKEEPING FEE:
2.0%
$25,000
INVESTOR QUALIFICATION:
Accredited investor
ANNUAL ADMINISTRATIVE AND SAFEKEEPING FEE:
2.0%
Fact Sheet
http://bitcointrust.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fact-Sheet_Mar15.pdf
Bitcointalk BIT information and discussion can be found here.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/gbtc-bitcoin-investment-trust-observer-337486
P.S. Read the DISCLAIMERS:
Quote
This product represents a speculative investment and involves a high degree of risk. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment. Any offering or solicitation will be made only to qualified accredited investors pursuant to a formal offering with additional documentation, all of which should be read in their entirety. Information provided about the Bitcoin Investment Trust (the “BIT”) is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as investment, tax or legal advice, a recommendation, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, an interest in the BIT. Any offer or solicitation of an investment in the BIT may be made only by delivery of the BIT’s confidential offering documents to qualified accredited investors. You should rely solely on such offering documents in making any investment decision. An investment in the BIT is not suitable for all investors. The BIT is a private, unregistered investment vehicle and NOT subject to the same regulatory requirements as exchange traded funds or mutual funds, including the requirement to provide certain periodic and standardized pricing and valuation information to investors. There are substantial risks in investing in the BIT. You should note carefully the following:
Quote
The BIT represents a speculative investment and involves a high degree of risk. An investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his/her investment. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment in the BIT.
Quote
An investment in the BIT should be discretionary capital set aside strictly for speculative purposes.
An investment in the BIT is not suitable or desirable for all investors. Only qualified accredited investors may invest in the BIT.
The BIT’s offering documents have not been reviewed or approved by federal or state regulators.
An investment in the BIT will be illiquid and there may be significant restrictions on transferring interests in the BIT. There is no secondary market for an investor’s investment in the BIT and none may develop.
The BIT has limited operating history or performance.
The BIT’s sponsor has total authority over the BIT.
The BIT and its managers or advisors may rely on the trading expertise and experience of third-party managers or advisors, the identity of which may not be fully disclosed to investors.
The BIT may involve a complex tax structure, which should be reviewed carefully, and may involve structures or strategies that may cause delays in important tax information being sent to investors.
The BIT’s fees and expenses−which may be substantial regardless of any positive return− will offset the BIT’s trading profits.
The BIT and its managers/advisors may be subject to various conflicts of interest.
An investment in the BIT is not suitable or desirable for all investors. Only qualified accredited investors may invest in the BIT.
The BIT’s offering documents have not been reviewed or approved by federal or state regulators.
An investment in the BIT will be illiquid and there may be significant restrictions on transferring interests in the BIT. There is no secondary market for an investor’s investment in the BIT and none may develop.
The BIT has limited operating history or performance.
The BIT’s sponsor has total authority over the BIT.
The BIT and its managers or advisors may rely on the trading expertise and experience of third-party managers or advisors, the identity of which may not be fully disclosed to investors.
The BIT may involve a complex tax structure, which should be reviewed carefully, and may involve structures or strategies that may cause delays in important tax information being sent to investors.
The BIT’s fees and expenses−which may be substantial regardless of any positive return− will offset the BIT’s trading profits.
The BIT and its managers/advisors may be subject to various conflicts of interest.
Quote
The above summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in the BIT and is subject to the more complete disclosures contained in the BIT’s confidential offering documents, which must be reviewed carefully.
If you trade on GBTC you don't have to sign-up to a Bitcoin exchange.
Most pro traders prefer having a single interface that allows you to trade thousands of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies etc. - trading would be very annoying if you had to sign up to a few hundred platforms
Most pro traders prefer having a single interface that allows you to trade thousands of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies etc. - trading would be very annoying if you had to sign up to a few hundred platforms
The tax argument is invalid.
Absolutely
Nobody has even talked about the management fees either. Surely if you are looking for a tax efficient wrapper, you are considering it for the long-term. Maybe > 10 years. Maybe even 20 years.
IIRC fees are 2% annually and collected in BTC, assuming you start with 100BTC of exposure,
after 10 years, it is reduced to 81.7 BTC
after 20 years this becomes 66.76 BTC
JUST FROM THE DEDUCTION OF FEES !!
Now tell me why anyone would pay a premium to hold this product for the long term for tax reasons.
It makes no sense whatsoever
There is only one winner in the long run with this product, and it ain't Joe Public
The facts are coming in and it's obvious that this initial ETF or whatever it is, is causing a bullish mindset in onlookers and will only increase when COIN comes to play. And, this is w/o any of these or the others coming on board imminently, stirring any demand or bullish fervor. We're gonna need the roof to be raised soon.
That's right I said it, and "bringing it back" also if you haven't heard it in awhile/decade.
That's right I said it, and "bringing it back" also if you haven't heard it in awhile/decade.
Quote
BITCOIN INVT TR (GBTC) -Other OTC
49.00 Up 9.00(22.50%) 3:57PM EDT
Prev Close: 40.00
Open: 50.00
Volume: 14,807
49.00 Up 9.00(22.50%) 3:57PM EDT
Prev Close: 40.00
Open: 50.00
Volume: 14,807
Why would one buy a BTC for $490, when the price on US-regulated exchanges is $244?
Why is this same question asked every day?
Because there is no satisfying answer yet?
The tax argument is invalid.
As soon as COIN is trading, the ETF will buy and sell BTCs on a daily basis (since it is an open fund). COIN price will be connected to BTC price. So why would someone pay a 100% premium for GBTC?
Maybe some who speculate that the BTC price will be way above $500, when COIN launches and is unable to buy BTC on an exchange now?
Or just gambling with a low liquidity stock to make some bucks?
So... do I get this right, this is the new MtGox wall observer thread? Including all the implications of that one? 
Seriously though, good idea for a thread. Not sure yet what exactly to make of it, but it's another era for BTC, just like ASIC mining, or the previous reward halving. Interesting times.
Seriously though, good idea for a thread. Not sure yet what exactly to make of it, but it's another era for BTC, just like ASIC mining, or the previous reward halving. Interesting times.
It's certainly interesting. These types of investment vehicles are purely investments (not users) and they only adjust their prices after weekends and holidays while Bitcoin markets are open 24/7.
So... do I get this right, this is the new MtGox wall observer thread? Including all the implications of that one?
Seriously though, good idea for a thread. Not sure yet what exactly to make of it, but it's another era for BTC, just like ASIC mining, or the previous reward halving. Interesting times.
Seriously though, good idea for a thread. Not sure yet what exactly to make of it, but it's another era for BTC, just like ASIC mining, or the previous reward halving. Interesting times.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GBTC&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes
Time and Sales for Bitcoin Investment Trust May 08, 2015
Symbol: (GBTC)
Time Price Volume Market
15:57:31 49.00 163 OTO
15:55:20 49.00 50 OTO
15:53:52 49.00 100 OTO
15:53:50 49.00 100 OTO
15:53:42 50.00 5 OTO
15:45:29 51.00 150 OTO
15:37:37 50.00 500 OTO
15:32:46 49.95 10 OTO
15:32:17 50.00 100 OTO
15:27:49 49.00 50 OTO
15:23:36 50.00 10 OTO
15:06:48 50.00 600 OTO
15:02:56 50.00 92 OTO
15:02:44 50.00 400 OTO
15:01:21 50.00 100 OTO
15:01:09 50.00 500 OTO
15:00:31 51.00 10 OTO
15:00:27 50.00 200 OTO
14:58:32 50.00 100 OTO
14:55:34 52.00 29 OTO
14:51:57 50.00 100 OTO
14:51:55 50.00 100 OTO
14:44:25 50.00 1 OTO
14:43:33 53.95 1 OTO
14:35:41 52.50 160 OTO
14:35:41 52.50 40 OTO
14:19:58 54.50 275 OTO
14:14:03 55.00 200 OTO
14:14:00 52.00 400 OTO
14:13:48 50.00 498 OTO
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