Topic: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread - page 2580. (Read 654947 times)

good explanation, with a lot of details, although i do not expect for Werder to win today (would like it, so will skip gambling on it, but do not believe that they will)

last week miracle is probably still in their heads, and will be for app. 15 minutes at the start of the match, but disciplined team as Heidenheim should avoid conceiving goal at the very beginning and after that, it is their advantage, and it could end up 0:1 at the end, or goalless

what is not in Heidenheim favor is a score with top teams in 2. Bundesliga, especially away, where they lost almost all, and bad result in Pokal match, where they conceived four goals in Bremen, but this match should be completely different

Heidenheim is super small club from a 50k town in the middle between Stuttgart, Nürnberg, Munich/Augsburg. Just 15 years ago they were still playing in 6th division and worked their way up from there; promoting to 2. Bundesliga only some years ago. They are a low-profile club doing solid work and having a very good coach. They live by a strong team chemistry and always play very disciplined. None of their players have the quality to play in Bundesliga, let alone in german national team. Some years ago their captain Schnatterer had the quality to play Bundesliga, but he decided to stay in Heidenheim and is a legend there. And I doubt he would have worked in Bundesliga, he is just a Heidenheim guy and would fail at any other team imo, because he wouldn't feel comfortable there.
Having a player from 2. Bundesliga playing in german NT is a very rare event. The last one was Jonas Hector iirc, who stayed at Cologne, when they relegated, but I can't remember another player.

I think it won't be easy for Werder today, because Heidenheim can be a pain the ass to play against. You still have this horrible home record from Werder, but they should be on a high after last weekends miracle. Heidenheim is poor in away games and I expect them to just sit back today and being happy with a 0-0 (or any scoring draw as well). In the end Werder should win this today all things considered, but I can't imagine it being a big win, something like 1-0/2-0/2-1 seems likely.

I just Googled Heidenheim's roster and I have to admit I never heard of any of their players. It is quite weird because I watch a lot of football and I play FIFA, FM and all kinds of football games.
They have only 1 foreign player (Austrian) and neither one of their German players was ever capped for the German national team. Few of them had occasional U-19 or U-20 appearances.

Werder must be considered a strong favorite for this game, their team is far from great but should still be winning these kind of games easily.

and that's why i say this will be a clear win for werder bremen this evening.
my desired result would be 4:0  

Cavani was another example, same as Lewandowski.
He was one of the top and most promising strikers in the world when he was at Napoli, but then he moved and he lost his brightness. Hopefully, Lewandowski didn't force a move.

You didn't need to pull out all that research just for my sake Just wanted a general feel about the league which you already knew in your hart if you bet on the league often. Big thanks, you more than delivered.

Bookmakers make the odds in automatic way as per history of the league and history of the clubs, home and away games are taken into account heavily and recent form a little less. There is other factors as well I am sure. Specific stuff like the fact that Bayern II can't promote don't enter in this calculations unless somebody gives it a manual tweak which doesn't happen so often. They just let the odds drop when lots of money got wagered on one outcome. There are many such coefficients which are than weighted differently between odds providers. League coefficient is weighted quite heavily and that is why all the games in some leagues have low odds and vice versa. Very good opportunity to exploit this was both to score market in Serie A this season. I made a nice sum of money taking both to score games with odds @1.8, especially on Juve, Cagliari and some other teams that were much more tight in the past. This season Serie A was much more open than last few years in general.

Over/Under don't drop so much because majority of people bet on ML, you can also see that much higher amount of people make bets on double chance than Asian handicaps. For instance on Sportsbet same market in Asian handicap will almost always have higher odds than double chance.

No FOMO, if what you wrote is true and I believe it is, the odds will drop for about 10% wait for Saturday and see I am taking them now or waiting for live play.

Good thing about over market is that if teams don't have anything to play for they often just forget about defense and we have open game, or they break totally and ship in a few goals. Woks for us either way. I am taking the bets.

All above is just informed speculation based more on experience than on insider information but I am good at things like that and I am quite confident that my theory holds water or at least odds behave in a way that doesn't deny my theory which is enough.

Thanks Tbh I have no idea how the bookmakers came up with these odds for the totals. Last round in all german leagues normally have rather low-ish odds for o/u 2.5. In round 34 of 1.&2. Bundesliga you could barely find any over 2.5 odds of more than 1.60. And in 1860/Rostock games you have clear indicators for all 4 teams needing to push right from the beginning, so not sure, why these odds are so high - I will probably know after the games have finished I can only imagine that odds compilers just bot-like used their algorithms without looking at the table and/or not knowing about Bayern II not being eligible to promote (but this is well known and no secret). I don't expect the odds to drop a lot - they rarely do with over/under - but I think both odds have very good value, so I placed my bet already. But I will add to my stake inplay, if there are no early goals and good opportunities arise in the latter stages of the games and the teams open up even more and go all-in.


Dritte Liga is certainly not like ISL2 or NED2, but also not like ITA2 or FRA2, it's something inbetween. Here are the stats for leagues 1-3 in Germany (taken from SoccerStats):

1. Bundesliga, over 2.5: 65.0%
2. Bundesliga, over 2,5: 53.9%
Dritte Liga, over 2,5: 57.6%

And for comparison:

NED2: 63.4%
ITA2: 42.9%
FRA2: 38.9%

Lets check the o/u for Rostock, Chemnitz, Ingolstadt and 1860:


Source: https://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=germany3

So even all of these teams are generally not super high scoring, they do play more over than under, apart from Rostock, who are close. Just adding those % like a moron, 1860 - Ingolstadt has 58% (odds 1.72) of going over and Chemnitz - Rostock has 53% (odds 1.88). Now take into account the circumstances, where a draw isn't enough for all of the teams - only Ingolstadt could maybe live with a draw, if everything falls into place for them - and I think these odds for over 2.5 are totally wrong.

I put 7/10 as stake, since I see very good value. You can maybe place a smaller bet now, to satisfy parts of your FOMO^^ and sleep it over one night, follow the odds movement and add to your stake Friday/Saturday, depending on your gut feeling. Or wait for inplay and jump in then with more money.

Over/under 2.5 is always more of a gamble in the end, so I would recommend to not overstake. Lets say Ingolstadt leads 3-0 and Zwickau leads 3-0 at Mannheim, then there is no need for Rostock/Chemnitz to push anymore, since Rostock can't get promoted no more and Chemnitz is relegated.

I'm eager to see that game. Haven't got any idea how both teams are gonna play. Relegation will be a completely different game than a normal league game. And this one without spectators will be completely different. I am curious.

Since I am just following first leagues it is the first time learning that reserve teams have a maximum permissible level which is 3.Bundesliga. Poor Bayern II.
Reminder boys, tomorrow Bremen vs Heidenheim 

Very nice analysis as usual. Will probably follow your picks and do it soon. It seems to me this could be those type of games when odds start to fall more and more as the games come near so the value will not be nearly as high when Saturday comes.

Just one question to make informed decision on size of my stake. If you follow German 3rd league, what is your general feel about the league. For instance Island 2nd league and Netherlands 2nd league are leagues where lots of goals are scored anyway. Italy second league is much more tactical and low scoring while totally rigged, if both teams can profit with a draw, the game will always end as draw and odds for draws can drop as low as 1.4 

Maybe one of the reasons why he wasn't really that much loved by the whole world (well he is loved, just not more) is the fact that Bayern never had a huge champions league victory? They never won it while he was there.

Lewa is at a level where he is already regarded as high as possible for anyone who is not Messi or Ronaldo, in order for him to be considered like Ronaldo or Messi he had to win something in Europe and he failed that, because of this I think he was always "best player in Bundesliga" and never "one of the best playing now" level. That is not bad neither, dude is basically scoring on any team he wants on Bundesliga and one of the biggest reasons why Bayern is dominating the league as well, he just needed recognition in Europe but I doubt it really matters to him that much.

Two picks for season finale in Dritte Liga on Saturday.


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/standings/OlUUjkDi/nmi3z2iQ/#table;overall

Bayern II is not eligible for promotion, Braunschweig is through to 2. Bundesliga with todays win. 3rd place will go to 2. Bundesliga as well and 4th place will go into playoffs against Nürnberg.

The matchups for last round:

Munich 1860 - Ingolstadt
Duisburg - Unterhaching
Chemnitz - Rostock
(Würzburg - Halle)

Munich 1860 needs a win against Ingolstadt, to keep their hopes alive.
Ingolstadt could live with a draw and secure 4th place, if both Duisburg/Rostock don't win. But Ingolstadt could overtake Würzburg with a win, if they lose against Halle at home (unlikely, but we have seen it all).
It's very likely that either of Duisburg/Rostock win, so Ingolstadt needs a win as well in the end. They can't just play for a draw here and will have to push for a win, just like 1860 has to do.

Rostock needs to hope, that Ingolstadt doesn't win at 1860, win their own game and work on their goal differential, in case Duisburg wins as well. Rostock has +13, while Duisburg has +16, so Rostock needs to win with big margin.
Rostock's opponent Chemnitz themselves need all 3 points as well, since this is the only possibility to avoid relegation. And they need to win with big margin as well, because if Zwickau only draws at Mannheim, goal differential will be the decider. Zwickau has -5 and Chemnitz has -8, so Chemnitz has to win with at least 3 goals difference while scoring a lot (a 7-4+ would do the trick, else they would have to win with 4 goals difference).
Both teams will have to push a lot in this game and I expect a crazy one.

In these two matches, we have 4 teams that have to push for 90 minutes and thus I am betting both games to go over 2.5 at fantastic odds.

1860 - Ingolstadt over 2.5 @1.9+
Chemnitz - Rostock over 2.5 @2.0+

I made a parlay with those two for odds around 3.85, stake 7/10.

 Well corona certainly did caused teams to not spend too much money, but when you get someone like Leroy Sane who you can grab for 50 million, you take that offer. Not because you are super rich or you can afford to or anything, even if you can't afford to do something like that, you take out a loan from a bank who would lend you that kind of money and get Leroy Sane and then pay that loan back in years.

 There are some players who can change the teams to a whole new level, Leroy Sane is one of those players, you can put him in paderborn and he would probably keep that team in the league, he is not messi, he is not ronaldo, hell he is not lewandowski, but he would change bayern to a whole new level nonetheless. So that is why corona did affected teams, but not on transfer like these.

That would of course be a reinforcement if he came.
Seems to look good from what we can read. It shall be just small stuff until the contract is signed.
The transfer shall cost about 50 million.
Wasn't there something about corona and tighten the belt? 

There are more players with good scores and i guess the best since he was started in the German League not long ago are Erling Haaland.
Guess Bayern Munich already got an eye on him for sure .


I expect that they also try to get Leroy Sane as at the moment it would be a cheap transfer for them and they was on the way to get them earlier.
And i just found this article now and looks like the deal is fix for the transfer.


Source : https://www.sport1.de/fussball/bundesliga/2020/06/fc-bayern-leroy-sane-kommt-heute-nach-muenchen

Best striker probably yes. But you also have to take into account that Lewandowski, as much as any other player, is also the product of a whole team effort. If you have very good players around you, that makes you better as well. They give you assists, play good passes, drag defenders from you away etc. Put Lewandowski into Mainz team and he won't shine that much imo, though he would still be very successful because of his pure class. Otoh, put Haaland into Bayern attack and he would crush all records too

I don't know, if he is the best player in Bundesliga, since it's too hard to compare. He gets a lot of spotlight and has nice stats, because it's all about goals in football, but there are a lot of unsung heroes that do excellent work, but it won't show up in any statistics.

That's true partially. Many good players "lost" their performance once they moved from a league to another, some of them recover fast and other may take much more time or even doesn't progress at all.
CR7 in his first games and overall skill was by far better in La Liga than Serie A. +/- Neimar and Kroos, E. hazard +++ and many other names that I forgot.

Munich took advantage of todays one-day transer time and engaged Tanguy Kouassi of Paris Saint-Germain. Lets see which transfers still happen today.

Lewandowski is maybe the best striker right now.
He is underrated because he is a player that grew in Bundesliga. If he was in another league such as Premier League or La Liga then all people was going to talk about him.

Lewandowski is one of the best strikers in the last 20 years. When people look at Haaland, I think that nobody is saying that he's better than Lewa - if he scores 50 goals next season I would not say that.

Haaland started really well in Dortmund and is hard to defend due to being really fast and direct for a player of his size so he has all the physical attributes to succeed. If he improves the technical/positional side of his game, he might be almost impossible to defend against. He's an exciting new talent so it's normal that people have started making comparisons.

Lewandowski is not only the best striker in the Bundesliga, he's the best player there as well.