Topic: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread - page 2609. (Read 654798 times)

Was about to say a similar comment 
Now the 3 other games started, still 0-0.

Congrats to Bayern Munich for winning the 2019-2020 Bundesliga league title. It's been by far the weirdest league in decades, crazy stuff happening worldwide, but even in dire times, Bayern knows how to show up in crucial games, and what do you expect? I mean, we're talking about a team that's in the top5 "best football teams in the world" =)

Let's enjoy those profits  

I've been hearing that since 2013  

I thought the same, the Haaland left-foot shot. It seems a clear penalty to me, as well as that Akanji bodycheck with Lewandovski in the last minutes of the game.

Kimmich scored a great goal but Burki has some of the blame for sure. But fair play to Bayern, they really played well tonight. Calm and in control, they are a better team than Dortmund.

Good point. I also thought about taking the last season(s) into account but eventually decided against it. I think you can't really compare the seasons and say because Lewandowski scored x goals last season, he will score y in the remaining matches. The indivual matchups play an important role imo. And this season I'd say that Leipzig and Werner have weaker teams in the remaining matches.

Edit: Wasn't this a handball by Boateng and a penalty for Dortmund? Did the VAR even check it? Looked to me like he blocked the shot on purpose with his arm

So, this is it. End of the Borussia Dortmund story and his title-winning dream for this season.
Almost every season, they start so well and promising serious title fight, until they get to Bayern who regularly shatters their dreams.
it will be better next year 

Kimmich's kick is pretty cool where the goal keeper can't shake it because it's too forward there's not much pressure but what you see is there's no attack so fast with each other but I'm sure Bayner Munchen can add another goal in the second half.

With already won 1-0 I was glad I would have a bet like this tonight, oh what a beautiful dream if Bayern added 1 more goal.

Not many goals as expected, at least in the first half, but Bayern is leading until now 1-0. The goal was scored by Kimmich!
More pressure on Dortmund

Nice prediction you have, and it looks fair enough. But from what I have seen in last two seasons of Bundesliga, Lewandowski is more consistent than Werner if it's about scoring.

The amount of goal Lewa scores in the first half-season of 18/19 was 10 goals and the second half was 12, while Werner scored 11 in the first half and only 5 in second half of season. In the season of 17/18, Lewa scored 15 goals in the first half-season and 14 goals in the second one, which Werner scored 9 goals in the first half and only 5 in the second half of season.

From these data in last two seasons, the amount of goal Werner able to score in the second half-season is 45-55% of the total goals he scored in the first half of season. In otherwise, the percentage Lewa has is almost 100%. It means Lewa able to score in second half-season as many as goal he has in the first half. So based on this calculation, since in the first half of current season Lewa scored 19 goals, he would likely add at least 15 goals in the end of season, so probably will be 34 goals in total. In the other side, with 45-55% percentage for Werner, he has scored 18 goals already in the first half-season, so he might be able to score only 9 goals, which the total goal he would has in the end of season is 27 goals.

Since the first match of second half-season, Lewa has already scored 8 goals and Werner 6 goals. With my prediction, Lewa would be able to score another 7 goals in the remaining matches of this season, and for Werner, he might add just 3 goals.

So my conclusion is, the chance for Lewandowski to be a top scorer this season is much higher than Werner. Please don't take it as a main reference, it's just my prediction based on the goal statistic they have in the last two seasons.

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EDIT:
The crowd noise in Dortmund vs Munchen game is kinda weird in that empty stadium but not a bad idea lol. It makes the game bit more exciting than last gameweek

I hoped Sancho and/or Reus would at least make the bench. I still think Dortmund will not lose, but Bayern looks a bit more stronger on paper without 2 key Dortmund players available at all.

I took a parlay with Borussia not losing and Bayer winning, I might play another with over goals if there will be none in the first 30 mins or so. Right now odds are a bit too low.

EDIT: now I see Sancho is on the bench after all. He is named at the 1st place so I guess I skipped it, expecting that's a back-up goalkeeper

Truth be told, I have a slightly huge bias towards Bayern as well despite knowing well that Dortmund won't be an easy task, and I'll also be backing the Bavarians to win and total goals under 3.5 @ 3.64


The line up is out

Werner and Lewandovski are the same goalscorers, but in this match you have to be able to determine who is the best if both will score more goals from each other. so this match will be so interesting to wait.

But I'm here as a Bayern Munich fan so Lewandovski like him will beat the Bundesliga record but both are great but Werner won't be able to get past Lewandovski who is so great in his performances.

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It seems like tonight many gamblers are ready with their bets because this is an interesting match to bet on.

Yeah @3.8 its really impressive and tempting too. Dortmund have the good chance to close the gap here between them and Bayern on the table and their team is very well shaped up with players like Sancho and Haaland leading the attack here. Dortmund haven't conceded a goal since the Bundesliga started. Also their key midfielder Witsel is likely to return from injury in today's clash against Bayern so will be really exciting match.

C'mon, Lewa...c'mon Bayern!

Dortmund WIN @3.80...Damn! They're #2 in the league table, ffs! they're not a mid table team  

I think Werner lost it in the period before the coronavirus where he scored only once in the last 7 games. Lewandovski scored 6 times in the same period and has a big enough advantage now.
Yes, Werner can have scoring streaks, but so can Lewa. Odds are tempting but somehow I feel that with 7 games remaining they are exactly where they should be - portraying Lewandovski as a strong favorite.

On the other hand, I really do like the odds on Dortmund today and I will try with that. High odds have good value because Dortmund cannot play for a draw here.

yeah, Lewa is too old, and Haaland is to close to transfer to Real for the rivalry to last long
nevertheless, seems that we will have great match in two hours, that could make the championship more interesting, or almost solve it completely in Bayern favor, go for goals at the end, over 2.5, it will be more interesting to watch, small stake

Odds are pretty lucrative on Dortmund (15/4). Seems like bookies don't see any home advantage in the absence of fans, lol. Well, I think match will be closer than what bookies are predicting. If Sancho is fit and can play full minutes then it can even go draw (17/4 odds, ehh). I am going for a draw, let's see how the rivalry between Haaland and Lewa goes. Can they become Messi-Ronaldo of Bundesliga? (maybe Lewa is too old for this rivalry to last long).

Odds were 5.0 on bet365, too. I know that it's probably not going to happen but I listened to my gut and I think the possiblity is higher that the odds would suggest.

Same as you, I also think the matches of Bayern against Dortmund, Leverkusen, Gladbach are the ones where Lewandowski will probably have the hardest time to score. Freiburg is also not that easy to play against. They tend to be do much better against stronger teams when they can focus on their defence. Last season they were the only team where Bayern couldn't win at least on of their 2 matches. Bremen is always in danger of getting a real beating from Bayern. In addition to that, Bayern also has another match in the DFB cup in early June (one more match in an already tense and exhausting schedule).

For Leipzig I see the matches against Berlin and Dortmund as the toughest ones. Especially Hertha. They are doing really good since the restart under their new coach and I am really excited for that match tomorrow. The other teams I see at a level of Mainz at best. On a good day the offence of Leipzig can really shine in these matches.

Did you know that the DFB canceled the 2nd Bundesliga from women? The table from play day 16 will be frozen  and Werder Bremen an Meppen are promotion to the federal league. No relegation. The first game in 1. Bundesliga will be held at 29th May between Wolfsburg and Köln.

Nice post and no need for tldr, because although this is a prediction thread, there are not that many predictions in here. So always good to read some proper analysis.

What odds did you get ? I saw 5.0 at Tipico, but didn't check elsewhere. Catching up 3 goals in 7 matches is certainly not easy when Lewandowski scores basically every game. Bayern has 4 games, where I would expect them to not score a lot: Dortmund, Leverkusen, Gladbach and Wolfsburg. Against Düsseldorf, Freiburg and Bremen they could score quite a few, especially against Bremen imo.

Leipzig has Paderborn and Hoffenheim, where I see them scoring some more goals. Against Dortmund they won't score a lot imo, the rest is to be seen. I would probably want more than the 5.0 from Tipico, more like 8-ish, so curious what you got. 

I'm not sure if anyone would be interested, but I was wondering what the chances are for Werner to outperform Lewandowski and become the top goalgetter this season. Right now, Werner is at 24 goals, Lewandowski already at 27. So I quickly compared the remaining games of Leipzig and Bayern in view of the chance for Werner and Lewandowski to score goals.

Leipzig's remaining matches are (the numbers show Werners goals in the first legs match):
Hertha (2)
Koln (1)
Paderborn (1)
Hoffenheim (2)
Dusseldorf (1)
Dortmund (2)
Augsburg (0)

Bayern's remaining matches are (the numbers show Lewandowskis goals in the first legs match):
Dortmund (2)
Dusseldorf (0)
Bayer Leverkusen (0)
Gladbach (0)
Bremen (2)
Freiburg (1)
Wolfsburg (0)

At first glance, the games for Leipzig look a bit easier. While Lewandowski scored 5 goals in the first half of the season against them, Werner managed to score 9. If history repeats, that would be enough to beat Lewandowski. I know it's not really a good argumentation and Lewandowski is capable to score 5 goals in 9 min (what a legendary game!) but for me it was enough to justify a small bet on Werner with the current odds.

TL:DR: Tried to explain why I thought Werner could become top goalscorer this season.