Get one btc right away or 5 btc with a bet? - page 3.

Pumared

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Quote from: nullama on March 26, 2024, 08:30:09 AM

Quote from: Pumared on March 25, 2024, 10:32:26 AM

~snip~
you are one player in a million who will follow this choice. This happens because you are already used to and understand the risk. but many others would simply take the chance

Yeah, but that's the thing...

It doesn't matter if one person or one million do it.

The chances are just a math thing.

Say you roll a dice. It doesn't matter if a million people roll a dice, getting a one is always 1/6 chances, no matter how many people in the world are rolling a dice.

yes yes, I am referring to the choice that many people will make for simple security and to have the peace of mind of having money (read Bitcoin)

Forsyth Jones

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I'd take 1 BTC immediately and then think about what I do with it, I'd divide this prize between 20% for variable income investments and only 2% in betting and sports betting and the rest I would keep in hodl.

blckhawk

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Funny how there's about 28 current vote that they'd take the 1 bitcoin and not risk a 50/50 game to get the 5 bitcoin but I think that those who've chosed including me are trying to do the most logical thing to do, get the money and quickly get out, that's how I see this dilemma that we're into, we choose whether we go the difficult route or we choose the easy way which is already profitable, I hope that someday, someone's going to tell me to choose between this two or any similar dilemma game, I'd choose the wasy money 10 times out of 10.

nullama

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Quote from: Pumared on March 25, 2024, 10:32:26 AM

~snip~
you are one player in a million who will follow this choice. This happens because you are already used to and understand the risk. but many others would simply take the chance

Yeah, but that's the thing...

It doesn't matter if one person or one million do it.

The chances are just a math thing.

Say you roll a dice. It doesn't matter if a million people roll a dice, getting a one is always 1/6 chances, no matter how many people in the world are rolling a dice.

Pumared

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Quote from: shasan on March 23, 2024, 05:16:45 PM

Quote from: Becassine on March 11, 2024, 06:22:38 PM

It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

As a gambler, I will take the offer of 5 BTC. If I get 1 bitcoin then I may lose that fund too and from 1 bitcoin it will be more difficult to make 5 bitcoin than taking the second chance. So, I have no other option than taking the chance to get 5 bitcoin.

you are one player in a million who will follow this choice. This happens because you are already used to and understand the risk. but many others would simply take the chance

wxa7115

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Quote from: Blitzboy on March 23, 2024, 04:13:40 AM

This is about smart investing selections. While the quick 1 BTC payout feels safe, it limits your returns.

I now believe in sensible risks when the odds are good. A 2 to 1 chance to win 5 BTC is unusual. But remember, this is about proper diligence, not rash conclusions. Assess odds, risk tolerance, and gains carefully.

An informed approach works best. This may mean betting on 5 BTC if the numbers allow. Success typically comes from well-researched, unique movements. Calculation and risk management are key to responssible investing. Knowledge and strategy produce the best results.

I think the same, while the safest option can seem like the most attractive for many people due to its certainty, improving your life often comes with risks, so we need to find the opportunities in which even if there is a risk the potential reward is much higher.

Then if I were given this choice for real I would pick the opportunity to get 5 BTC with 2 to 1 odds, maybe I could lose and get nothing, and if that was the case I will simply move on thinking I did the best I could under the given conditions, however if I was able to get my way then those 5 BTC will surely help greatly, especially since the bull run is just starting out.

shasan

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Quote from: Becassine on March 11, 2024, 06:22:38 PM

It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

As a gambler, I will take the offer of 5 BTC. If I get 1 bitcoin then I may lose that fund too and from 1 bitcoin it will be more difficult to make 5 bitcoin than taking the second chance. So, I have no other option than taking the chance to get 5 bitcoin.

Blitzboy

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This is about smart investing selections. While the quick 1 BTC payout feels safe, it limits your returns.

I now believe in sensible risks when the odds are good. A 2 to 1 chance to win 5 BTC is unusual. But remember, this is about proper diligence, not rash conclusions. Assess odds, risk tolerance, and gains carefully.

An informed approach works best. This may mean betting on 5 BTC if the numbers allow. Success typically comes from well-researched, unique movements. Calculation and risk management are key to responssible investing. Knowledge and strategy produce the best results.

fillippone

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on March 12, 2024, 10:51:51 AM

Quote from: acroman08 on March 11, 2024, 06:57:09 PM

I know this is just a hypothetical question thread but what do you mean by "with a chance of 2 to 1"? Do you mean that I can either get 1 btc or 2 btc if I chose the 5 btc after gambling it? if so, wouldn't the 5 btc be the best option since there was no mention of the possibility of not getting anything if you chose the 5 btc?

It seems to me that the OP is one of those who post here because they are paid but don't actually gamble. There is no sense in what he says as he puts it.

But I'm going to assume he does make sense. In terms of EV, the 5 bitcoin possibility is more profitable than the bitcoin in hand. If we take the statement literally (which would be impossible in reality) that every time I try to win 5 bitcoin I win twice, i.e. 10 bitcoin, obviously this possibility has a higher EV. But let's assume that he meant the opposite, that every second time I try I will win once, and I only have one try. In other words, I have a 50% chance of winning. If I take the bitcoin I get 1 bitcoin, but if I try this bet, the EV is 2.5 bitcoins. Therefore, the second option is also more profitable.

So I would particularly go for the bet but I understand that for people that 1 bitcoin can solve their life, they would not risk staying with 0 for the possibility of winning 5 bitcoins.

One particular aspect to be considered is also the fact that it's not EV the only parameter.
Take this, for example: you pay 0.01 BTC to enter a lottery, and you get 0 with 50% probability, or 0.02 BTC with 50% probability?
The game is fair, would you enter? maybe yes, if you are risk-neutral.
Would you enter a lottery where you pay 1 BTC to enter to get 0 with 50% probability or 2 BTC with 50% probability?
It is the same exact chance of winning, but the payoff is greater. Maybe the risk of losing is shifting your risk aversion, so you want a hedge to the upside in your bet: you might want to enter a lottery where you pay 1 BTC to get 0 with 50% probability or 2.1 BTC with 50% probability.
This is only a simple model to make you understand how difficult is to estimate risk aversion.

Pumared

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Quote from: skarais on March 22, 2024, 12:33:43 PM

Really, this is not an easy choice. A gambler will ignore 1 bitcoin and will consider a 2:1 chance of winning 5 bitcoins because that 2:1 chance is too big to ignore. Others will choose 1 bitcoin and enjoy it, but they are not true gamblers by nature. Maybe they are just having fun at gambling, but a true gambler will definitely choose something bigger even if the odds seem small.

It's the chance of a lifetime for many people, so the guaranteed option is the easiest and most practical for these people. This choice is natural. But anyone who really wants to have adventure and tension in this "easy" choice can opt for the other option!

Ever-young

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Quote from: Iroh on March 22, 2024, 07:52:16 AM

Quote from: Becassine on March 11, 2024, 06:22:38 PM

It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

You know what they say about a bird in hand being worth more than two in the bush.
For me, I wouldn’t need much time to deliberate on this as I would certainly go with taking one bitcoin. I’ll prefer to go with something sure. The 1 bitcoin that’s being offered is certain while there is the possibility of losing out entirely while trying out your luck to get 5 bitcoins.
There may be people willing to risk it and go for the 5 bitcoin. I wouldn’t exactly say some people amongst those bunch are motivated by greed to do so but it’s obvious the thought of having 5 bitcoins could be tempting.

The "bird in the hand" and "two in the bush" concepts are very relevant here! I believe that the decision to pick the most secure choice (1 bitcoin) or to take a risk in the hope of receiving a larger payoff (5 bitcoins) can be influenced by a variety of circumstances. For example, a risk-averse person may constantly go for the safe option, but a risk-taker may opt for the larger prize.

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Quote from: Becassine on March 11, 2024, 06:22:38 PM

It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

The answer to your question is actually very easy. If a gambler is not an addict, I am sure that they will choose to take 1 bitcoin even if they don't gamble anymore, because, of course, in their minds, that is money for sure.

Let's assume that it's really true. I'm going to take 1 bitcoin, and I'm going to take out half of it right away and change it to our fiat, then I'm going to hold the remaining 0.5 bitcoin and wait for it to go x3 or x4. I'm okay with that.

len01

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If this is just an offer I will choose to get 5 BTC but have to bet.
wait a minute, this is not about greedy but this is about the offer to get 5 BTC and its meaning does not spend too much money but can get 5 BTC even though they have to take risks.
the question does not have a guarantee to get 5 BTC but what's wrong with us trying to get a bigger one as long as we don't use a large amount.
I am not a gambling addict but rather often takes a small amount of risk to try to get big luck.

I read the other reply choosing to receive 1 BTC without doing anything or avoiding the risk of gambling while for me to live is a risk that must be lived and we also will not know whether 1 BTC will really be used for investment but what I know when someone is often gambling and getting large amounts of money will certainly continue to gamble and even increase the amount of budget for gambling.

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Really, this is not an easy choice. A gambler will ignore 1 bitcoin and will consider a 2:1 chance of winning 5 bitcoins because that 2:1 chance is too big to ignore. Others will choose 1 bitcoin and enjoy it, but they are not true gamblers by nature. Maybe they are just having fun at gambling, but a true gambler will definitely choose something bigger even if the odds seem small.

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Quote from: Iroh on March 22, 2024, 07:52:16 AM

Quote from: Becassine on March 11, 2024, 06:22:38 PM

It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

You know what they say about a bird in hand being worth more than two in the bush.
For me, I wouldn’t need much time to deliberate on this as I would certainly go with taking one bitcoin. I’ll prefer to go with something sure. The 1 bitcoin that’s being offered is certain while there is the possibility of losing out entirely while trying out your luck to get 5 bitcoins.
There may be people willing to risk it and go for the 5 bitcoin. I wouldn’t exactly say some people amongst those bunch are motivated by greed to do so but it’s obvious the thought of having 5 bitcoins could be tempting.

Actually this could really give out that kind of doubt or hesitance on not to get that 5 Bitcoin because if the agreement is that you could be able to get all the winnings you could be able to win up on using that 5BTC
on which we know that this kind of balance isnt something that you could really be able to experience because there are average gamblers who cant really be able to have that 5BTC balance. This is why if you
are somehow that a true gambler and wouldnt mind about securing that 1 BTC then you would be going into that 5 option on which you would really be thinking about those probabilities
that you might be able to make something much more that 1BTC with that kind of balance.So choices would really be that depending into those people who had those kind of thinking.

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Quote from: Becassine on March 11, 2024, 06:22:38 PM

It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

By the way, a very interesting and unusual question. It's rare to find a theme that's unusual. This is exactly the case.
My answer will be short. I would still choose one bitcoin. Because if I chose 5 and didn’t win, I would greatly regret it. We have a saying: “Better a bird in the hand than a pie in the sky.” But if I were a millionaire and this money did not influence me much, then most likely I would choose 5 bitcoins with a 50/50 probability

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Quote from: Becassine on March 11, 2024, 06:22:38 PM

It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?

You know what they say about a bird in hand being worth more than two in the bush.
For me, I wouldn’t need much time to deliberate on this as I would certainly go with taking one bitcoin. I’ll prefer to go with something sure. The 1 bitcoin that’s being offered is certain while there is the possibility of losing out entirely while trying out your luck to get 5 bitcoins.
There may be people willing to risk it and go for the 5 bitcoin. I wouldn’t exactly say some people amongst those bunch are motivated by greed to do so but it’s obvious the thought of having 5 bitcoins could be tempting.

Pumared

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Quote from: umbara ardian on March 21, 2024, 01:12:59 PM

One option – receiving 1 Bitcoin without gambling – offers guaranteed safety and immediate access. It's the "easy path," like taking a familiar route on a map.

The other option – gambling for 5 Bitcoins – presents a tempting lure. Imagine the potential for significant gains, a shortcut to a larger Bitcoin holding. However, as you acknowledge, it's a risky path, fraught with the possibility of losing everything. It's like venturing into uncharted territory on the map – exciting but potentially perilous.

Choosing the "non-greedy" option by taking 1 Bitcoin highlights your risk tolerance and your comfort level with a guaranteed outcome. It's a smart decision for someone who prioritizes security and doesn't have a high appetite for risk.

It's a great point of view. But I find it interesting that most people will always follow the guarantee because it is natural that everyone wants easier money. So the answer will depend on the user's current situation

inthelongrun

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1 BTC is something I cannot afford to lose so I will definitely take it right away. I have goals at the moment and this year and next year are expected to have huge bull run swings. I'd rather invest a big part of it and then use part of it into my regular sports betting.

Maybe if the situation happened 6 years ago there is a high chance that I will take the first option because I owned a lot of bitcoins back then. So for me it is really important to bet within your means. So I'd be happy and contented with the second option.

umbara ardian

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One option – receiving 1 Bitcoin without gambling – offers guaranteed safety and immediate access. It's the "easy path," like taking a familiar route on a map.

The other option – gambling for 5 Bitcoins – presents a tempting lure. Imagine the potential for significant gains, a shortcut to a larger Bitcoin holding. However, as you acknowledge, it's a risky path, fraught with the possibility of losing everything. It's like venturing into uncharted territory on the map – exciting but potentially perilous.

Choosing the "non-greedy" option by taking 1 Bitcoin highlights your risk tolerance and your comfort level with a guaranteed outcome. It's a smart decision for someone who prioritizes security and doesn't have a high appetite for risk.

Topic: Get one btc right away or 5 btc with a bet? - page 3. (Read 1629 times)