Topic: Get one btc right away or 5 btc with a bet? - page 4. (Read 1633 times)
A 50% chance to get a 5x increase... Seems like a no brainer to me. I'm taking those odds all day long. Even the best of casino odds are less than 2 to 1 when it comes to doubling your money (think the green squares on roulette) and you're talking about even odds with a 5x payout... Anyone who says they would take the 1 BTC and gambles should slap themselves. That's like a ton of bets with more than 5x the odds you play for usually. You could even make a side bet of 1 BTC that you will lose and worst case scenario you break even, best case scenario you win 4 BTC.
Quote from: ralle14
I wouldn't hesitate to go with the 1 BTC and call it a day because i'm only a casual gambler. I'd rather play it safe with the lesser reward than go with the possibility of walking away with nothing.
If I were a high roller and 1 BTC was something I could afford then maybe the chance to win 5 BTC wouldn't be a bad option.
Get the 1 BTC you have seen which is more better than the 5 BTC with a bet you don't know what it will bring in the future and it can either make you to lose the 5 BTC because nobody is perfect in the gambling system and anything can happen that will make you happy when you win or sad when you lose.If I were a high roller and 1 BTC was something I could afford then maybe the chance to win 5 BTC wouldn't be a bad option.
I know there are some gamblers that will not cash out with 1 BTC than to continue pushing the 5 BTC that will make them to lose everything in the future and, we have see many gamblers in such opportunity but they loss everything at the end, but if am in such position I will cash out with the 1 BTC.
I think they are basically saying these two scenarios:
- A) you bet 1 BTC and get 2 BTC back with 100% probability (expected return is 1 BTC)
- B) you bet 1 BTC and get 6 BTC back with 50% probability (expected return is 2.5 BTC)
So, if you simply use math and maximize return, you would choose B), but if you prefer certainty, you choose A).
- A) you bet 1 BTC and get 2 BTC back with 100% probability (expected return is 1 BTC)
- B) you bet 1 BTC and get 6 BTC back with 50% probability (expected return is 2.5 BTC)
So, if you simply use math and maximize return, you would choose B), but if you prefer certainty, you choose A).
Mathematics has variations in application
You are absolutely right, but someone can make other calculations, for example, not count the expected return, but compare the potential maximum losses. In this case, in the first option there are no losses at all, and in the second case the maximum loss can be 1 btc. And then mathematics tells us to choose the first case.
You are absolutely right.
And the thing is that the original problem didn't have any specifications in terms of the original bet. So we can make up whatever we want.
I think that the point is to think about what you are betting, and what you are getting in the end. That is a useful thing and can be applied to anything.
I think they are basically saying these two scenarios:
- A) you bet 1 BTC and get 2 BTC back with 100% probability (expected return is 1 BTC)
- B) you bet 1 BTC and get 6 BTC back with 50% probability (expected return is 2.5 BTC)
So, if you simply use math and maximize return, you would choose B), but if you prefer certainty, you choose A).
- A) you bet 1 BTC and get 2 BTC back with 100% probability (expected return is 1 BTC)
- B) you bet 1 BTC and get 6 BTC back with 50% probability (expected return is 2.5 BTC)
So, if you simply use math and maximize return, you would choose B), but if you prefer certainty, you choose A).
Mathematics has variations in application
You are absolutely right, but someone can make other calculations, for example, not count the expected return, but compare the potential maximum losses. In this case, in the first option there are no losses at all, and in the second case the maximum loss can be 1 btc. And then mathematics tells us to choose the first case.
~snip~
I still think that if there was anything else at stake other than 1 BTC guaranteed for example, there would be more supporters of the other option. Because people often consider the value of BTC in USD or in their local currency. And this influences, tends to choose.
I still think that if there was anything else at stake other than 1 BTC guaranteed for example, there would be more supporters of the other option. Because people often consider the value of BTC in USD or in their local currency. And this influences, tends to choose.
Yeah, I think it changes everything if you consider the actual purchasing power of 1 BTC vs 5 BTC.
If you value it at almost $0, then 1 or 5 BTC doesn't really matter.
In a similar way, if you value it at "more than enough" then it also doesn't matter, so basically 1 BTC ~ 5 BTC so you would choose the less riskier option.
~snip~
1 BTC without playing? You mean that someone is going to give me 1 BTC for nothing? Everyone with a brain will choose the first option.
Getting money with zero risk will always beat gambling. You didn't mention how much should anyone bet in order to get 5 BTC. You say that the chance is 2 to 1, does that mean that we should bet 2.5 BTC in order to get 5 BTC? I don't believe that any serious gambler would risk 2.5 BTC for the opportunity to double it. You are kinda wrong about this. It's easy to make the right decision when you are rational. The problem is that many gambling addicts don't think rationally. They just keep chasing the big profits and are willing to risk everything.
1 BTC without playing? You mean that someone is going to give me 1 BTC for nothing? Everyone with a brain will choose the first option.
Getting money with zero risk will always beat gambling. You didn't mention how much should anyone bet in order to get 5 BTC. You say that the chance is 2 to 1, does that mean that we should bet 2.5 BTC in order to get 5 BTC? I don't believe that any serious gambler would risk 2.5 BTC for the opportunity to double it. You are kinda wrong about this. It's easy to make the right decision when you are rational. The problem is that many gambling addicts don't think rationally. They just keep chasing the big profits and are willing to risk everything.
I think they are basically saying these two scenarios:
- A) you bet 1 BTC and get 2 BTC back with 100% probability (expected return is 1 BTC)
- B) you bet 1 BTC and get 6 BTC back with 50% probability (expected return is 2.5 BTC)
So, if you simply use math and maximize return, you would choose B), but if you prefer certainty, you choose A).
I still think that if there was anything else at stake other than 1 BTC guaranteed for example, there would be more supporters of the other option. Because people often consider the value of BTC in USD or in their local currency. And this influences, tends to choose.
~snip~
1 BTC without playing? You mean that someone is going to give me 1 BTC for nothing? Everyone with a brain will choose the first option.
Getting money with zero risk will always beat gambling. You didn't mention how much should anyone bet in order to get 5 BTC. You say that the chance is 2 to 1, does that mean that we should bet 2.5 BTC in order to get 5 BTC? I don't believe that any serious gambler would risk 2.5 BTC for the opportunity to double it. You are kinda wrong about this. It's easy to make the right decision when you are rational. The problem is that many gambling addicts don't think rationally. They just keep chasing the big profits and are willing to risk everything.
1 BTC without playing? You mean that someone is going to give me 1 BTC for nothing? Everyone with a brain will choose the first option.
Getting money with zero risk will always beat gambling. You didn't mention how much should anyone bet in order to get 5 BTC. You say that the chance is 2 to 1, does that mean that we should bet 2.5 BTC in order to get 5 BTC? I don't believe that any serious gambler would risk 2.5 BTC for the opportunity to double it. You are kinda wrong about this. It's easy to make the right decision when you are rational. The problem is that many gambling addicts don't think rationally. They just keep chasing the big profits and are willing to risk everything.
I think they are basically saying these two scenarios:
- A) you bet 1 BTC and get 2 BTC back with 100% probability (expected return is 1 BTC)
- B) you bet 1 BTC and get 6 BTC back with 50% probability (expected return is 2.5 BTC)
So, if you simply use math and maximize return, you would choose B), but if you prefer certainty, you choose A).
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
1 BTC without playing? You mean that someone is going to give me 1 BTC for nothing? Everyone with a brain will choose the first option.
Getting money with zero risk will always beat gambling. You didn't mention how much should anyone bet in order to get 5 BTC. You say that the chance is 2 to 1, does that mean that we should bet 2.5 BTC in order to get 5 BTC? I don't believe that any serious gambler would risk 2.5 BTC for the opportunity to double it. You are kinda wrong about this. It's easy to make the right decision when you are rational. The problem is that many gambling addicts don't think rationally. They just keep chasing the big profits and are willing to risk everything.
It really depends on odds, if you are very likely to win the 5BTC at this game, I would take this option for sure. For this kind of amounts, I think I would be ready to lose the 1BTC in order to try to win the 5BTC if I have more than 80% chances to win. Below such likelihood it would be very difficult for me, and I would take the safe 1BTC option IMO
The OP gave chances of 2 to 1 for this bet, which means a 33% chance of winning the 5 BTC, so I suppose you would take the safest option and go for the 1 BTC, which is not wrong as many people prefer to take the safest option when given a chance.But since this kind of bet has no inherent risk, since we have not staked anything to deserve it, I will be willing to take the risk and go for the 5 BTC, as this is the option that makes the most sense mathematically.
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
I am not a hardcore gambler, I will definitely go for the 1 bitcoin without gambling, rather than chose to have 5 with gambling, for in gambling, there is no guarantee of any kind, I might choose to have 5 bitcoin in gambling and end up not winning it.I can only choose to have 5 bitcoin in gambling if there is a sure guarantee that I will win the 5 bitcoin, which actually changes the whole thing and makes the whole game useless, for what essence is it to choose to have 1 bitcoin without gambling when there is a guarantee that I can get 5 if I gamble, and doesn't matter if I lose or win.
So, in the nutshell, it's better for me to have 1 sure bitcoin without gambling, than hoping to win 5 bitcoin through gambling without any guarantee, it is commonly and often said that, a bird at hand is worth millions of birds in the bush, which simply means that, that which small amount we have with guarantee, is much more than that which is many, but no guarantee that we can have it or them.
Yes 5 BTC sounds nice but if you would really be needing for you to gamble those amounts then its up to you but we know that risks of losing in gambling is high. So it would be better
to be sure on securing that 1 whole coin rather than busting up that 5btc and left nothing for you. Just like been said by others that it would really be something that suspicious that
someone will be giving out 1btc without any catch. If its actually free then for sure majority of us would really be sticking into this option.
Free money is free money and there's no one on this world would be giving out eh.?
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It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
I am not a hardcore gambler, I will definitely go for the 1 bitcoin without gambling, rather than chose to have 5 with gambling, for in gambling, there is no guarantee of any kind, I might choose to have 5 bitcoin in gambling and end up not winning it.I can only choose to have 5 bitcoin in gambling if there is a sure guarantee that I will win the 5 bitcoin, which actually changes the whole thing and makes the whole game useless, for what essence is it to choose to have 1 bitcoin without gambling when there is a guarantee that I can get 5 if I gamble, and doesn't matter if I lose or win.
So, in the nutshell, it's better for me to have 1 sure bitcoin without gambling, than hoping to win 5 bitcoin through gambling without any guarantee, it is commonly and often said that, a bird at hand is worth millions of birds in the bush, which simply means that, that which small amount we have with guarantee, is much more than that which is many, but no guarantee that we can have it or them.
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
I won’t even think about it twice, I know the risk involved in gambling, I know the amount 1 bitcoin worth if it’s converted to my local currency, i will be able to establish myself, and maybe I will be Rich for life. Am sure some people will still want to go for the 5 bitcoin but they won’t even think about the risk involved in it, I don’t just know why some people are always so confident whenever they are gambling, they don’t believe they will lose, and after losing they will end up regretting why they didn’t just go for the 1 bitcoin.Exactly, your thinking is that of most people who respond to the survey, as we will always think of 1 BTC converted to fiat currency, not as 1 BTC. People who understand this will opt for the second option.
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
This is really interesting just because you would know if the person you are asking it with is a gambler or not. I believe I would be picking thee sure thing, 1 BTC because it's a lot already and not doing anything about it makes it more enticing for me. The gambling chance of the x5 of the current prize is tempting but I would want the sure thing because it's not always going to be the case "if it was offered". I'm just being realistic. 
I think this depends on the person who is given the offer, if that person has 100 BTC for example, surely he will risk and try to get 5 BTC, but if the person who is offered has a little BTC and he also collects it very difficult, surely he will choose to take 1 BTC, regardless of the comparative opportunities given to him and depending on whether he is greedy or not.
If I accept the offer, I'd rather get 1 BTC without risking anything, because that's more than enough that I can get, because collecting 1 BTC is very difficult for me personally.
If I accept the offer, I'd rather get 1 BTC without risking anything, because that's more than enough that I can get, because collecting 1 BTC is very difficult for me personally.
Same here, I won't be greedy aiming for higher amount. 1BTC is a sure fund in hand. I would rather choose the one that is 100% claimable than a higher amount but need to gamble. Gambling has random results, no matter how high the odds is we are not sure whether we will win or not. Just take a dice with 98% chance of winning having a result of consecutive losses. what more the 50% chance? I will not risk the 1 BTC for 5 BTC. It is a good enough fund to setup a business that can yield more than 5 BTC if becomes successful.
Majority of those commenting will go for the 1BTC, that was actually my initial position before I gave it a second thought. I can actually go for the 5BTC and if the condition is to double it before I can withdraw, I can actually achieve it. It is simple to achieve. I will select the big European teams like Real Madrid, PSG, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Bayern Munic, PSV and Bayern Leverkusen, any of them playing at home and against a smaller time will be selected. A combination of three of them will give me up to 1.6 odds which I will be 2BTC. If I continue this for two rounds I would have doubled the funds in a space of a month. At the stage the leagues are now, it is rare for e big teams to lose against small teams.
In a game of chance there is no guarantee that you can 100% achieve it. Even a parlay in sports betting does not guarantee a 100% winning result, let alone the chance of upset in every match. Your calculation is an assumption that the result of the match goes your way, but what if it does not go your way?
I think it is much better to take 1 BTC and gamble it to become 5 BTC, than choosing 5 BTC where we have a chance of losing even before we have the grasp of the fund. At least with 1 BTC as the initial bankroll, a 5x of the bankroll is somehow doable even with medium luck.
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
I won’t even think about it twice, I know the risk involved in gambling, I know the amount 1 bitcoin worth if it’s converted to my local currency, i will be able to establish myself, and maybe I will be Rich for life. Am sure some people will still want to go for the 5 bitcoin but they won’t even think about the risk involved in it, I don’t just know why some people are always so confident whenever they are gambling, they don’t believe they will lose, and after losing they will end up regretting why they didn’t just go for the 1 bitcoin. 
It really depends on odds, if you are very likely to win the 5BTC at this game, I would take this option for sure. For this kind of amounts, I think I would be ready to lose the 1BTC in order to try to win the 5BTC if I have more than 80% chances to win. Below such likelihood it would be very difficult for me, and I would take the safe 1BTC option IMO
It also depends on whether I have other BTC and how many I own. I probably wouldn't risk such a large sum, but if I were a multimillionaire the situation would be different. As you already wrote, it depends on the betting odds. If the probability is very high, I would be more likely to place the bet.
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
I must say that this is the simplest question and option ever asked and given to me respectively, and of course, I will opt for the first option. I will gently, majestically and proudly take my 1 BTC and quit. This is more honourable and sensible because, with 1 BTC, you can certainly make the multiples of the 5 BTC you wanted to risk it for. Gambling is risky, it can come out to be in your favour or disfavour., what if it disfavored you, what do you do? Such even pians more.I've seen some people betted senselessly like that when it comes to some contest, it is bad and I do not know the reason why I would do a thing like that.
Imagine, I have a sure money which I can invest to make more money but I will now opt for the unsure money that can even take all benefits away from me? I will not think it twice, I will opt for the sure options. I can now do business with it, bet with part of it and also do a whole lot of meaningful things and activities with it and still have savings with it instead of losing it all foolishly.
It's not always easy to make the right decisions. Are you a gambler? If you're offered 1 btc without playing or 5 btc by playing (with a chance of 2 to 1). What do you do?
As someone who barely gambles, I'd take the locked in money straight away or.. lay the bet off elsewhere so you are guaranteed to lock in an extra profit beyond the basic 1 btc - but that is probably pushing the limits of this theoretical idea. I would expect most people in a gambling forum would push for the 5 BTC, but I personally would be happier to sit with a guaranteed amount rather than potentially nothing. With money in the bank it is possible to make more money, however you can't do that with thin air if you lost the bet. I've just seen so many failed bets that seem like "sure wins" that it would put me off messing with larger amounts. If it was between $100 and $500 though, I'd probably gamble for the $500.
I believe in my current living conditions and the needs of my family and those I care about, I would be more inclined into taking a whole BTC without risk instead trying my luck.
I know this is supposed to be the gambling board and we all are here because we like gambling, but such an opportunity like this one to get a while Bitcoin is too tempting to allow to pass, at least in my personal case.
Anyways, looking at the results of the survey, it would seem to me that most of people here in the forum agree with me that it is better to take free money than messing with ones luck.
I don't know about you, but I have proven myself to be quite a person who does not have much luck woth casino games (I never had good luck with dices) so I would rather to continue to further push my luck and accumulate regrets like this one.
We have a saying here in the Spanish Speaking world about it. "Más vale pájaro en mano que mil volando". It could be translated like: A bird in one's hand is of more worth than thousands birds flying in the sky".
I know this is supposed to be the gambling board and we all are here because we like gambling, but such an opportunity like this one to get a while Bitcoin is too tempting to allow to pass, at least in my personal case.
Anyways, looking at the results of the survey, it would seem to me that most of people here in the forum agree with me that it is better to take free money than messing with ones luck.
I don't know about you, but I have proven myself to be quite a person who does not have much luck woth casino games (I never had good luck with dices) so I would rather to continue to further push my luck and accumulate regrets like this one.
We have a saying here in the Spanish Speaking world about it. "Más vale pájaro en mano que mil volando". It could be translated like: A bird in one's hand is of more worth than thousands birds flying in the sky".
It really depends on odds, if you are very likely to win the 5BTC at this game, I would take this option for sure. For this kind of amounts, I think I would be ready to lose the 1BTC in order to try to win the 5BTC if I have more than 80% chances to win. Below such likelihood it would be very difficult for me, and I would take the safe 1BTC option IMO
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