Topic: [GLBSE] BDK -- LIQUIDATING UNDER NEGATIVE EQUITY PROVISION -- - page 5. (Read 21246 times)

BDK's been traded @ practically nothing three times in the past couple weeks. I'd be willing to call those panic sells -- I believe those were moreso over the GLBSE drama than from no dividends being paid today. Someone saw enough opportunity in those sells to keep up some small bidwalls, now, so probably won't happen again. Anyhoo - will have to just wait it out for BDK to market to re-evaluate BDK once some solid dividends come out. At this time, I'm not intending to offer more than 500 units next month. 500 "pre-IPO", none reserved for offering date - but I'll wait to make a more firm commitment for 2-3 weeks when I can have a better gauge of the market on July 2nd. Should have a solid month in July, so will likely offer maximum amount again in August.

Bids are there, but no actual trades at that price.  You really have to check the ticker before saying its panic selling.

Anyone who wants to dump a lot of shares without moving the price can PM me.

Panic selling, surely. I was expecting something like this, due to the lack of dividends, and the general low returns expected this month.

BDK down to 0.11

June 4 UPDATE
Dividend/share paid: 0.0BTC/share
Total dividend paid: 0BTC (-6.99BTC negative liability to shareholders being wiped)
Running total dividends paid in June: 0BTC

May 2012 Net Income Expectations
Optimistic estimate: 400BTC
Reasonable estimate: 100BTC
Pessimistic estimate: -150BTC
(Guesstimated weekly dividend payouts -- June 4th: 0.0BTC/share Actual: 0.0BTC/share, June 11th - .00063BTC/share, June 18th - .00018BTC/share, June 25th - .00036BTC/share)

Before I take a break from the Internet for a few days, starting tomorrow - does anyone want to have a dialogue with me over the 0BTC dividend I'll be paying tomorrow, or anything else?

As to why BDK took a loss this week, it's due to CDs reaching maturity around the same time. I foresaw problems like this, and is why I originally wanted to do monthly dividends (and still do later down the road when BDK is ("I am") better-trusted), so stuff would have time to "balance out." As-is, the current shareholder dividend is calculated to be -4.86BTC, ~-5.5BTC after I pay dividends to BDK.BND-holders. This "debt" will be wiped using BDK funds, but I will not always be wiping debt, especially if "unit"-holders own >30% or so of BDK. There will very likely be a dividend paid on June 11th, particularly because I have no CDs due in that timespan, so the only expenditure will be ~27BTC to holders of BDK.BND.

I think it'd be a good temporary solution use amortization when calculating CD expenditure - and loan income, too. Instead of suddenly accounting for a 100BTC loss due to CD maturation, make it weekly. It would be easy to account for on the spreadsheets... Give a gain/loss per week column in the loan sheet, then in monthly I/O reports, use the sum of that column, and add a static amount I "paid on paper" for previous weeks to the current weekly amount lost/gained from interest each week. This seems like much more sound accounting to me, allow less volatile dividend returns, and would give me a better idea of how I'm doing, but am open to other ideas. Cheers!

Thanks & right. I'm at the point where I'm denying CDs requests, now. Not running into scaling issues, yet, but I need to correct my judgment before taking on more liabilities. For example, putting $20k into Hermes so soon was a mistake. That's ~1/3 of BDK funds. Way too large a % of funds for a project too far off, and opening a dialogue with GLBSE about it was a near-fatal mistake. I over-committed myself, gave away too much too soon (I did this with the Kronos bond deal, too -- most of that should have been handled privately before starting a forum thread), and am kicking myself for it, now.

I tend to do well with loans, but I really shouldn't be allowing myself to buy equity in startups I don't fully understand in and out (and that means I'm due for learning some programming languages with emphasis on security -- I should be able to do code-review personally), especially not with such a huge % of funds. That was a mistake I won't repeat. It's effectively costing BDK ~$1k (between paying depositors & opportunity cost) every month until the product launches, and that's too expensive when it's compromising BDK's diversification. I'm definitely not blaming the dev team or JRO - I think both Kronos and Hermes will both be great products for the community and net equity-holders a boat-load of cash - but it was definitely an over-commitment by me to tie up such a relatively large amount of funds in it, and I & other investors are paying for it now.

Good learning opportunity, though. BDK should be better for it in the future. After I pay bondholders tomorrow, I need a break for 2-4 days. I'll make sure I have all my chips on the tables, then make up for neglecting family - maybe go watch a movie or something. Cheers!

Thank you for clarifying this. I did not want to make your life harder or discredit you in any way. I guess GLBSE needs to add some new fancy securities to its list.

Yes and no. FRNs have a variable interest but it has nothing to do with net operating profits of the issuer. FRNs interest rate is a combination of so called spread (%) and some reference rate like LIBOR in the US. LIBOR+spred = rate you get from your FRN.

If you keep the new pile of BTC working as hard or better as the previous pile, we will be fine. Lets hope you understand the limits and do not get greedy.
Cheers and thank you for clarifying this.

Sorry - had meatspace stuff to do. I'm assuming I won't be selling the 1k units reserved for IPO today (.185/unit minimum). Regardless, here's a 3-minute warning.

ETA: 1k units reserved for IPO not sold. Current outstanding units = 8.1% BDK monthly profit. Distributing units to pre-IPO buyers.

Cheers!

As for IPO & shares -- that's a misrepresentation on my part. I've tried to clarify it, and had trouble when originally naming it which is why it's a "hybrid instrument." They're more of a floating bond where the variable interest is determined by net operating profits.

As for the "soup" getting watered down - it's really being thickened. Previous BDK investment money is used to lend and purchase shares in bulk, either to flip or hold for dividends. Normally, this should result in increased profits, usually within 30 days, though sometimes it takes longer to "cycle" money. The 4.5% of BDK net operating profit increases in value as investment because investing in BDK increases assets without creating fixed-rate debt - BUT, it doesn't dilute the value of previous offerings. Those who got in last month paid ~.055/unit and have already received >10% of what they put in. For instance - this month's offering is the second wave of bonds/shares/whatever being issued. While it's also for 4.5% of BDK's monthly profits, that doesn't dilute the previous buyers' investment - they still will hold 4.5%, and that wave of investors always will while they hold BDK units - future offerings only increase the value of BDK unit holdings because BDK *should* be increasing profits with increased money invested in BDK. What's being diluted is my own cut of the profits each time I make a new offering, so I need to make up for that by bringing in enough money for my own "monthly split" to increase in value as well.


Cheers,

Ben

I have few questions.

IPO: An initial public offering (IPO) or stock market launch, is the first sale of stock by a company to the public.

Why do you keep calling it IPO? You do not offer any stock to investors. To me it looks like you are borrowing money for your operations without giving up a slice of your company. Those are not bonds either, because you are not offering a fixed return from the investment.


Why do you keep calling it "shares"? Shares usually mean share of stock aka slice of a company's equity. Shares of what? Share of outstanding loans with no guaranteed interest nor maturity date? As I understand, you are not required to buy them back so you can just lift your hat and "say thank you". Did I misunderstood something?


  What you are saying is when this "soup" gets watered down every month, a spoonful of it will be worth more? This makes no sense at all.
Every month you ask for more money to pay out dividends to previous owners of "buttons" and make it look like the value of those "buttons" has gone up?

If I have misunderstood how this works, please explain in more detail.
Thank you

~5h warning

All pre-IPO shares have been paid for, so only 1k will be sold at IPO time in ~5h.


Cheers,

Ben

Aaaand there they go.

Will give a 5h, 1h, and 5m warning tomorrow for IPO. Cheers!

Only 200 pre-IPO shares remaining for reservation.


Cheers,

Ben

June 2012 Net Profit Expectations
Optimistic estimate: 400BTC
Reasonable estimate: 100BTC
Pessimistic estimate: -150BTC
(Guesstimated weekly dividend payouts -- June 4th - 0BTC/share, June 11th - .00063BTC/share, June 18th - .00018BTC/share, June 25th - .00036BTC/share)


Week-by-week estimates assuming I somehow lose the ability to find new opportunity
Wk1 (May28-Jun4) - 90BTC income, 155BTC outgo (Assuming negative shareholder dividend, this shareholder "debt" will not rollover)
Wk2 (Jun4-Jun11) - 100BTC income, 30BTC outgo
Wk3 (Jun11-Jun18) - 110BTC income, 90BTC outgo
Wk4 (Jun18-Jun25) - 70BTC income, 30BTC outgo

Total: 370 income, 305 outgo, 65 profit (shareholders will likely receive dividends as if there were 130BTC profit as wk1 losses will not rollover). Additionally, the money I have in Hermes ($20k worth) will likely be rolled over into Kronos debt which may begin paying by the end of the month and would be expected to pay ~50-100BTC if so. Otherwise, July will be a much more profit-favorable month. Seeing these fairly low numbers for June - if you'd like a refund on shares you've prepaid for, or would like to cancel your reservation, I'd be happy to accommodate! Though, the price for BDK will never, in the future, be as cheap as they are now - so if you're going long-term or mid-term, I do believe BDK would still be a great investment.


Cheers,

Ben


ETA: OP updated with shares remaining

BDK's been unrestricted. The IPO will continue as scheduled with a few minor time changes.

The IPO will be at 21:00 UTC tomorrow, on 6/2. Reservations must be paid for by 15:00 UTC tomorrow. Any shares not paid for by 15:00 UTC will be sold at a fixed price of .185BTC/share to anyone interested until 18:00 UTC. Beyond that, the 1,000 shares reserved for IPO (+ any pre-IPO shares not sold) will be offered on the open market as usual @ .185/share. If there are more bids above .185 than shares available, the shares will be sold at the highest bidder. If there are not enough bids @ .185 or above, the shares will be reserved until a later offering.

Currently, there are 700 pre-IPO shares which were decided not to remain reserved. These 700 shares can be reserved for a price of .18/unit.

I'll have profit guesstimates up within a couple hours. It will not be nearly as nice as May (initial eyeballing suggests 100-500BTC monthly profit). Lot of large deposits paid this month, and we're starting off with ~-84BTC profit to pay depositors.


ETA: BDK.BND and all JRO securities are still restricted AFAIK.

I'll have June profit guesstimates out tomorrow. Still not sure how BDK IPO will be handled. We may get everything resolved by the end of tomorrow, allowing me to make a market sell on GLBSE and issue shares to those who've paid for their reservation, so the IPO will occur as scheduled.

Another note -- "Monthly Growth" doesn't include the amount received for selling BDK. I haven't spent much time thinking of how to account for both funds raised, and the variable amount due to shareholders when the time comes for a buyback in 8-18 months. The buyback amount due is not included as a liability, nor is the amount I've raised from BDK offerings recorded. I'll have that corrected by next month's report, and go back, fix old I/O reports. This report is not necessarily final and may change by the end of today in ~5 hours (I'm not expecting it to).

May Summary

Monthly Profit - ฿878.65BTC
Income - ฿991.96

• Loan interest - ฿580.57
• Gratuities - ฿2
• Securities Dividends - ฿143.5
• Equities sold at a gain - ฿256.29
• Misc - ฿9.6

Outgo - ฿113.31

• CD/BDK.BND dividends - ฿83.56
• Misc - ฿29.75

Other Info
Assets - 10,082.98 ($52,330.64)

• Loans (excl. default)   - ฿1,079.63
• Equities - ฿8,713.35
• Cash-on-Hand - ฿290.00

Liabilities - 4,986.21 ($25,878.45)

• BTC100 Pledge   - ฿10.07
• IBB Pledge - ฿0.46
• BTC Deposits - ฿1,952.51
• USD Deposits - ฿385.36
• Shareholder Div. - ฿1.91
• BDK.BND - ฿2,635.90

Equity - ฿5,096.76 ($26,452.19)
Operator Personal Expenditure - ฿9.94
BDK Growth for Month of March (profit - shareholder dividends - operator personal expenditure) - ฿829.17

Full details @ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ao892S4MOoDZdGZSbjJVd1ZTbFVLZE5aRE95bE91NVE&gid=18 (one last note -- Hermes funding will likely be rolled into funding for Kronos as a bond) (quit adding [/list] at the end of my post, SMF) (one post-last note -- The Q2 report in the spreadsheet will start displaying values as soon as I start the June I/O report tomorrow -- I'll use the current BTC per USD value while I don't have a Q2 end number so you can get more stats)

You basically announced your GLBSE’s email account password in public, as seen in this message: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.831580

I was the one who immediately reported your post to have it deleted.

PS: I am looking forward to your "100% free market" p2p stock exchange which avoids the pitfalls of centralization. Although I am of the conviction that decentralized markets are inefficient and therefore will not be the use of choice, it is probably easier to accomplish than a p2p currency exchange which has to handle external fiat money.

Apologies for the offtopic, Kluge.

No one has been locked out of their account.

He has already "limited" all securities related to me & JRO without warning and not because of a ToS violation, even though some of those assets have almost no impact on Hermes funding at all. That said, I just put some more money into GLBSE securities, so obviously, I'm not too worried anymore.

For those questioning whether or not there was a ToS violation, this is from #bitcoin-assets:
(10:15:18 AM) DeaDTerra: What's the reason BDK is being limited?
(10:15:19 AM) nefario: the limited assets were being used to fund a competitor to GLBSE
(10:15:28 AM) nefario: AND they were attempting to pinch our customers

After I posted that, I asked Nefario straight-up if he'd lock me out of GLBSE accounts entirely and he said no. I'm satisfied, and apologize for saying that (though it was a real concern at the time). It was just a heat-of-the-moment comment.