Global Crypto Bear Market | Bitcointalksearch.org

Toxic2040

legendary

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Quote from: N12 on June 15, 2017, 02:40:21 AM

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Wrong
2. Altcoin and ICO bubble : Really wrong
3. Psychologically : Omfg were you wrong.

/thread

600watt

legendary

Activity: 2338

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Quote from: N12 on June 18, 2017, 10:17:20 AM

Thank you Joerii, it means a lot to me when people who have been around for a longer time realize the nature of markets that there are periods with low risk/reward and periods of high risk/reward and you don't necessarily have to expose yourself to the latter.

I agree with you trading on pure emotion is bad. But, as you gain more experience, I find that emotions or notions, if they persist for a longer time, then it's because you sense that something isn't right.

For 20 months, I have had peace with my Bitcoin position, not even bothering to check on it too much save for the latest craze. But as all the information sunk in and the most likely scenario began to unfold, I could not have possibly fallen asleep while hodling this bag.

how did it all work out for you? have you bought back in since june 2017?

ask

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1004

I am waiting for global stocks bear market not a crypto bear market.
stock chart is very similar to ex economic crisis chart.

deisik

legendary

Activity: 3458

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English ⬄ Russian Translation Services

Quote from: FiendCoin on October 22, 2017, 10:32:43 PM

Quote from: 600watt on October 22, 2017, 04:20:56 PM

Quote from: Joerii on June 18, 2017, 08:03:26 AM

Nekrobios, I have the feeling you might be right.

I sold everything yesterday, to be honest, on a gut feeling that the bubble is popping. I know trading on emotion is a stupid thing to do, and I might miss out on some more upside... but when you look at the chart, you don't even need indicators to tell that growth is slowing down and it DOES remind me a lot of the previous bubble in '13

Looking at today's chart, it only confirms my fears. We have been in a downtrend since we touched on 3k. Unless we pass 3k again, the only possible direction is down.

( disclaimer - I am a huge Bitcoin believer and I think Bitcoin has a golden future. But bull and bear cycles will keep cycling

price has more doubled since you sold your bitcoins. did you buy back between June and now? at what loss?

i am necroing this thread because I was close to sell myself. I am not laughing at you. it is important to see that even in
the midst of an ultra bullish performance like 2017 has shown, even experienced bitcoiners can get scared.

Expect another scare in the next 4-6 weeks. Maybe a multi-month correction before the bull continues in 2018

We all expect that

Somehow, the longer you stay in the market, the more pessimistic you become. We are constantly proved wrong in our decisions (but that's normal), and it seems to affect our overall sentiment. Indeed, we all sincerely hope for the price to rise higher but given the amount of trading mistakes we made in the past, the weight of them starts to inadvertently affect our thinking, and we might end up being overly or even extremely pessimistic. In this way, novice traders may have a sort of advantage unless the price is really going to tank massively. And then our hour of triumph comes

FiendCoin

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 263

The devil is in the detail.

Quote from: 600watt on October 22, 2017, 04:20:56 PM

Quote from: Joerii on June 18, 2017, 08:03:26 AM

Nekrobios, I have the feeling you might be right.

I sold everything yesterday, to be honest, on a gut feeling that the bubble is popping. I know trading on emotion is a stupid thing to do, and I might miss out on some more upside... but when you look at the chart, you don't even need indicators to tell that growth is slowing down and it DOES remind me a lot of the previous bubble in '13

Looking at today's chart, it only confirms my fears. We have been in a downtrend since we touched on 3k. Unless we pass 3k again, the only possible direction is down.

( disclaimer - I am a huge Bitcoin believer and I think Bitcoin has a golden future. But bull and bear cycles will keep cycling

price has more doubled since you sold your bitcoins. did you buy back between June and now? at what loss?

i am necroing this thread because I was close to sell myself. I am not laughing at you. it is important to see that even in
the midst of an ultra bullish performance like 2017 has shown, even experienced bitcoiners can get scared.

Expect another scare in the next 4-6 weeks. Maybe a multi-month correction before the bull continues in 2018.

If you really believe in Bitcoin, no dip, drop, crash or whatever should deter you.

I don't expect another big bear market until we hit somewhere over 30k+.

600watt

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 2106

Quote from: Joerii on June 18, 2017, 08:03:26 AM

Nekrobios, I have the feeling you might be right.

I sold everything yesterday, to be honest, on a gut feeling that the bubble is popping. I know trading on emotion is a stupid thing to do, and I might miss out on some more upside... but when you look at the chart, you don't even need indicators to tell that growth is slowing down and it DOES remind me a lot of the previous bubble in '13

Looking at today's chart, it only confirms my fears. We have been in a downtrend since we touched on 3k. Unless we pass 3k again, the only possible direction is down.

( disclaimer - I am a huge Bitcoin believer and I think Bitcoin has a golden future. But bull and bear cycles will keep cycling

price has more doubled since you sold your bitcoins. did you buy back between June and now? at what loss?

i am necroing this thread because I was close to sell myself. I am not laughing at you. it is important to see that even in
the midst of an ultra bullish performance like 2017 has shown, even experienced bitcoiners can get scared.

pooya87

legendary

Activity: 3472

Merit: 10611

Quote from: d5000 on August 31, 2017, 07:57:03 PM

Quote from: FiendCoin on August 31, 2017, 08:10:58 AM

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

That is what people already thought in 2013 Grin

... and what you say is what people were thinking back in January 2017 when they were calling the rally to $1000+ as repetition of 2013 specially since it coincided with PBoC inspection of Chinese exchanges and the rise to the previous ATH. and look where we are now!

a couple of example topics from pages 30-40 of this board (8-9 months ago):
Welcome back 2014, and calling $600 bottom
Dead cat bounce by kwukduck and calling $500
article saying hold but at the same time comparing the rise to 2013
2017 the new 2013
Grin

FiendCoin

sr. member

Activity: 462

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The devil is in the detail.

Quote from: d5000 on August 31, 2017, 07:57:03 PM

Quote from: FiendCoin on August 31, 2017, 08:10:58 AM

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

That is what people already thought in 2013 Grin

Some of your remarks are true, like that altcoins are more likely to lose more value in a coming all-cryptocurrency crash. But Bitcoin has also overheated, and "overheating" is all what bubbles are about. I think we are not far from a top that could last for more than half a year. And the most likely event that may trigger a bear market is the Segwit2x conflict in November.

Some of the indications why I think that Bitcoin is overheating can be read in this thread. (Caution, math inside!)

We've come along way since 2013. Lots of new money is pouring in from new sources. We're just starting. No doubt there will be more dips along way but after we'll keep reaching higher until we go exponential and parabolic. Then we'll have a crash 50-70% maybe. Homie, we got ALONG way to go to get there. Too many people still afraid, like yourself. Overheating? Gimme a break.

I do think we'll get a nice dip around November. It'll probably take a few weeks to recover, maybe a few months depends how bad it is. People like you will be saying the sky is falling but it'll just be a corrective dip that we'll recover from as we head 10k+.

But hey, keep with the fear and negativity, it just means we're heading higher. Don't get caught in a bear trap Grin

d5000

legendary

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Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: FiendCoin on August 31, 2017, 08:10:58 AM

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

That is what people already thought in 2013 Grin

Some of your remarks are true, like that altcoins are more likely to lose more value in a coming all-cryptocurrency crash. But Bitcoin has also overheated, and "overheating" is all what bubbles are about. I think we are not far from a top that could last for more than half a year. And the most likely event that may trigger a bear market is the Segwit2x conflict in November.

Some of the indications why I think that Bitcoin is overheating can be read in this thread. (Caution, math inside!)

deisik

legendary

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Quote from: 1Referee on August 31, 2017, 09:02:00 AM

Quote from: FiendCoin on August 31, 2017, 08:10:58 AM

The question is, what happens when BTC does go into a bubble? Do alts follow as in 2013 or do they crash?

For sure. Don't forget that the higher Bitcoin's price is climbing up throughout the years, the more people will be pushed into the altcoin market due to the far lower unit prices. Instead of them investing $500 to get themselves 0.1BTC, they could buy thousands of alts for that same $500. In most cases, people with a lower overall starting capital will more likely prefer to get more coin quanitity for their bucks than just a tiny bit of a whole Bitcoin. On top of that, it gives them the believe that they might have bought themselves in the next best Bitcoin, where its price might explode in value as well. I personally don't add much value to any sort of altcoin, but I do like that crypto in general is experiencing a massive amount of growth lately

You should follow the price of Litecoin

It is nearing 70 dollars per piece right now, not a far cry from 100 dollars where we could get overnight. I told you that I will let you know, and I certainly will. But once we reach a hundred dollar price tag things may change dramatically. This is kinda a magic number, and a lot of folks will see the light all of a sudden. Would you then reconsider your overall negative attitude toward altcoins in general and Litecoin in particular? If not, which price tag will make you do so?

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

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Quote from: FiendCoin on August 31, 2017, 08:10:58 AM

The question is, what happens when BTC does go into a bubble? Do alts follow as in 2013 or do they crash?

For sure. Don't forget that the higher Bitcoin's price is climbing up throughout the years, the more people will be pushed into the altcoin market due to the far lower unit prices. Instead of them investing $500 to get themselves 0.1BTC, they could buy thousands of alts for that same $500. In most cases, people with a lower overall starting capital will more likely prefer to get more coin quanitity for their bucks than just a tiny bit of a whole Bitcoin. On top of that, it gives them the believe that they might have bought themselves in the next best Bitcoin, where its price might explode in value as well. I personally don't add much value to any sort of altcoin, but I do like that crypto in general is experiencing a massive amount of growth lately.

FiendCoin

sr. member

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The devil is in the detail.

Quote from: d5000 on August 30, 2017, 02:06:29 PM

Quote from: FiendCoin on August 11, 2017, 06:43:10 PM

Nekrobios, admit you were wrong, there is no bear market.

While you're right that Bitcoin's price evolution looks still insanely bullish, most cryptocurrencies have lost value compared to BTC (with some exceptions, the biggest being Antshares/Neo), with respect to the time the OP was posted. Nobody is talking about a "Flippening" anymore.

As Bitcoin still leads the cryptocurrency world, it's true we cannot speak of a "crypto bear market", but we're still in an "altcoin bear market". The "bull market" is only lead by BTC, and its extremely good performance is most likely driven by the Segwit activation. So what I predicted in this post is still valid.

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

While some alts may be bubbly, Bitcoin is not, yet.

People are pumping alts because they want to see the success early BTC investors have had.

Is a crash possible? Sure. Is one Imminent? Not likely.

The crypto market is still bullish as hell. ETH is almost $400, Monero is almost $150, LTC is $65 and others are up as well.

The question is, what happens when BTC does go into a bubble? Do alts follow as in 2013 or do they crash?

Bottomline, THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!

d5000

legendary

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Quote from: FiendCoin on August 11, 2017, 06:43:10 PM

Nekrobios, admit you were wrong, there is no bear market.

While you're right that Bitcoin's price evolution looks still insanely bullish, most cryptocurrencies have lost value compared to BTC (with some exceptions, the biggest being Antshares/Neo), with respect to the time the OP was posted. Nobody is talking about a "Flippening" anymore.

As Bitcoin still leads the cryptocurrency world, it's true we cannot speak of a "crypto bear market", but we're still in an "altcoin bear market". The "bull market" is only lead by BTC, and its extremely good performance is most likely driven by the Segwit activation. So what I predicted in this post is still valid.

ShroomsKit_Disgrace

legendary

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Yeah! I hate ShroomsKit!

Just bumping this thread so noobs here can use Nekrobios' calls as a contraindicator.

You are very welcome. Grin

FiendCoin

sr. member

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The devil is in the detail.

Nekrobios, admit you were wrong, there is no bear market.

figmentofmyass

legendary

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Quote from: Torque on August 05, 2017, 03:33:42 PM

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster.

this makes a lot of sense. but now that the UASF split didn't happen, and the Bcash fork is done with and exchanges seem to have a good handle on it, do you think users/traders will move their coins back to the exchanges?

it seems like that huge spike in shorts on bitfinex was forced to close, whether by the market going up, or the exchange forcing them to close a hedge related to the Bcash payouts.

deisik

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Quote from: Torque on August 05, 2017, 03:33:42 PM

It's hard to say where this market is going to end up this year, or when the true top will be found. It appears going up is the only direction in the short term. Which certainly doesn't make me sad. Grin

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster

I guess this is debatable

While some folks might have actually moved their coins from exchanges to local wallets whereas some others might have even sold their coins for fiat or converted them to altcoins, there should have been quite a few people who might have moved their bitcoins to exchanges specifically to receive BCC after a number of exchanges announced that they were going to credit Bitcoin Cash coins to their clients. Other than that, we should in fact expect market thinning and volatility escalating when the price surges. There is simply no other way around given Bitcoin speculative nature

fabiorem

sr. member

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Quote from: Torque on August 05, 2017, 03:33:42 PM

It's hard to say where this market is going to end up this year, or when the true top will be found. It appears going up is the only direction in the short term.

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster.

Actually, there's no top, because: http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

Torque

legendary

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It's hard to say where this market is going to end up this year, or when the true top will be found. It appears going up is the only direction in the short term. Which certainly doesn't make me sad. Grin

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster.

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: FiendCoin on August 05, 2017, 04:43:19 AM

Quote from: exstasie on August 05, 2017, 03:24:02 AM

Nekrobios, have you revised your outlook yet? I've been studying Wyckoff, and it seems like this could be what is known as "up thrust after distribution." This is characterized by weak shorts being squeezed and late buyers. Given the huge price/volume spike we saw the other week, I'm still open to the idea that the major buying climax has occurred, and that we are in a weak last wave up.

I'm not super confident in that analysis, but looking at traditional Wyckoff charts, it seems to fit very well.

This shit again?

THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!

This doesn't necessarily suggest a bear market. A Wyckoff cycle is characterized by mark-up (price rise), distribution, and then mark-down (correction). Even if the possibility above plays out, that doesn't suggest a bear market like we had in 2014. It could just as easily play out like the correction following the April 2013 cycle. Even though the lost gains from the April top felt like bearish price action, the reality is that it was a fairly sideways correction. That's still possible here, if there is a major top in the $3000s.

Topic: Global Crypto Bear Market (Read 6673 times)