Global Crypto Bear Market - page 7. | Bitcointalksearch.org

ParabellumLite

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Quote from: Hhampuz on June 15, 2017, 05:50:54 AM

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

Indeed, the early signs were there already over the past two weeks or so. You could notice a lot of doubt in the market, and in the past few days confirmation for a bearish reversal has been coming in. For me it's not a question of whether BTC entered a bear market - as it has - but how long it will take this time. I don't think it will recover in a matter of weeks now: this will take months, and in the worst case, over a year to stabilize.

Now the great profit taking starts.

N12

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Quote from: Hhampuz on June 15, 2017, 05:50:54 AM

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

You bring up a great point. Sentiment in Bitcoin was actually bearish the whole time during the rise. I think the rise may have been brought to us by the altcoin hype, and without them, we would have fallen in price. Now that the altcoin hype dies down …

And yes, this is going to boost Bitcoin's fundamentals in the longer term. We need to solve scaling, and to do that, we need to apply lots of pressure. Price decline is good pressure.

Hhampuz

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Meh.

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

European Central Bank

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Quote from: jorneyflair on June 15, 2017, 05:40:38 AM

Point is that exchanges being defunct or partially defunct is bad, but not enough to make the whole market crash this much.

there's a big difference between exchanges being slow and crappy and defunct. if poloniex officially died you would see the largest crash in human history.

jorneyflair

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Quote from: ktabb on June 15, 2017, 05:34:07 AM

If this is turning around into a bear market, it is likely because of fears brought on by exchange ddos attacks. That being said, I'm not convinced that interest in buying bitcoin has fallen enough for this to go to levels much below $2300. I could see this rising back up to $3k. That being said, if more bad news comes out in the next couple days then I think it will enter bear market territory.

Technical analysis can be useful, mostly as a sanity check, but I don't think it is a reliable indicator on its own of a market trend turning around. Also I don't think $3k is a very significant mark psychologically. There could be some resistance but I doubt it is significant enough to make a real difference.

Exchange ddos attacks are most likely unrelated to the current crash.

Maybe it can explain why altcoins are crashing, but definitely not bitcoin. Also it should be noted that poloniex essentially went bust around 1 month ago but at this timeframe people were still pumping altcoins, as seen when Ethereum went to $400.

Point is that exchanges being defunct or partially defunct is bad, but not enough to make the whole market crash this much.

Quote

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

This is the thing that i agree the most with. Traders rely a lot on their emotions even though they try to limit it. 3k was not broken on most exchanges, and it'll cause a lot of traders panic selling.

ktabb

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If this is turning around into a bear market, it is likely because of fears brought on by exchange ddos attacks. That being said, I'm not convinced that interest in buying bitcoin has fallen enough for this to go to levels much below $2300. I could see this rising back up to $3k. That being said, if more bad news comes out in the next couple days then I think it will enter bear market territory.

Technical analysis can be useful, mostly as a sanity check, but I don't think it is a reliable indicator on its own of a market trend turning around. Also I don't think $3k is a very significant mark psychologically. There could be some resistance but I doubt it is significant enough to make a real difference.

magneto

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Quote from: N12 on June 15, 2017, 01:40:21 AM

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

excellent analysis.

I think the pump cycle has just been broken even without looking at all the stats and graphs because we have essentially been gotten used to bitcoin and altcoins going up 5-10% a day and calling that a norm. The breaking of this cycle is going to affect traders psychologically, and fueling further dumps in the crypto market.

Altcoins were too crazy to be sustainable as well, as you mentioned. There was no explanable reason why Ethereum had came so close to breaking bitcoin's market cap when it's got so many problems itself.

N12

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Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

Topic: Global Crypto Bear Market - page 7. (Read 6707 times)