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Topic: Global Crypto Bear Market - page 2. (Read 6716 times)

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 263
The devil is in the detail.
August 05, 2017, 03:43:19 AM
Nekrobios, have you revised your outlook yet? I've been studying Wyckoff, and it seems like this could be what is known as "up thrust after distribution." This is characterized by weak shorts being squeezed and late buyers. Given the huge price/volume spike we saw the other week, I'm still open to the idea that the major buying climax has occurred, and that we are in a weak last wave up.

I'm not super confident in that analysis, but looking at traditional Wyckoff charts, it seems to fit very well.


This shit again?

THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
August 05, 2017, 02:24:02 AM
Nekrobios, have you revised your outlook yet? I've been studying Wyckoff, and it seems like this could be what is known as "up thrust after distribution." This is characterized by weak shorts being squeezed and late buyers. Given the huge price/volume spike we saw the other week, I'm still open to the idea that the major buying climax has occurred, and that we are in a weak last wave up.

I'm not super confident in that analysis, but looking at traditional Wyckoff charts, it seems to fit very well.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 263
The devil is in the detail.
July 22, 2017, 06:24:03 AM
Global Crypto Bear what?  Roll Eyes

Pessimists wanna revise your predictions of doom and gloom (at least for Bitcoin)?
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
July 18, 2017, 01:39:44 PM
Is it really so?
I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack.

Yes, a basic look at Coinmarketcap shows that Bitcoin and most other cryptocoins recovered more than 10 (and some more than 15%, like ETH) in the last 24 hours, while LTC got only ~5%.

It is surely related to the slower downtrend of LTC you mention. But the point is that I think LTC is used like a hedging vehicle for the case that Segwit2x fails so Litecoin could continue with the privilege to be the "biggest coin with SegWit". If this money goes out of LTC I think it will fall drastically - unless they really manage to get real-world adoption of Lightning, or at least atomic swaps, faster than BTC

I certainly see your point

As well as where you likely fail in your reasoning. In short, you implicitly assume that Litecoin growth was specifically due to SegWit (and Lightning Network) activation, but, as to me, this is a false assumption (at least, for the most part). If it were so, we would see the Litecoin price spike even before SegWit activation or soon thereafter. But it didn't happen, and, in fact, it couldn't since SegWit (and still more Lightning Network) are pretty irrelevant and inconsequential for this coin as of yet. In my view, Litecoin rose to prominence, so to speak, not because of SegWit as such but rather because of its robust improvement model, i.e. the way the required changes get accepted without much ado, without needless and useless showdown. And it seems that Litecoin has been quickly rising these last hours
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 503
July 18, 2017, 01:05:13 PM
Is it really so?
I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack.

Yes, a basic look at Coinmarketcap shows that Bitcoin and most other cryptocoins recovered more than 10 (and some more than 15%, like ETH) in the last 24 hours, while LTC got only ~5%.

It is surely related to the slower downtrend of LTC you mention. But the point is that I think LTC is used like a hedging vehicle for the case that Segwit2x fails so Litecoin could continue with the privilege to be the "biggest coin with SegWit". If this money goes out of LTC I think it will fall drastically - unless they really manage to get real-world adoption of Lightning, or at least atomic swaps, faster than BTC.
Are your opinion LTC need have technology sending fast as DGB in present if want compete with BTC?
In few months ago after SegWit, the price of LTC just falldown to lowest price although we are know this happens very normal with altcoin have more speculator invest! But until July, LTC had prove it not an altcoin failure when SegWit and increasing to 0.02x BTC. In my opinion the real value of LTC need high than 0.015 BTC is good
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 6249
Decentralization Maximalist
July 18, 2017, 12:44:35 PM
Is it really so?
I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack.

Yes, a basic look at Coinmarketcap shows that Bitcoin and most other cryptocoins recovered more than 10 (and some more than 15%, like ETH) in the last 24 hours, while LTC got only ~5%.

It is surely related to the slower downtrend of LTC you mention. But the point is that I think LTC is used like a hedging vehicle for the case that Segwit2x fails so Litecoin could continue with the privilege to be the "biggest coin with SegWit". If this money goes out of LTC I think it will fall drastically - unless they really manage to get real-world adoption of Lightning, or at least atomic swaps, faster than BTC.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
July 18, 2017, 01:16:35 AM
Most altcoins, for now, follow the upmove. But they won't reach their previous highs - it's only a bounce - while Bitcoin probably will if everything plays out well with Segwit. As I expected. LTC price is increasing slower than most other coins' price - because LTC has only a chance to keep its value if Segwit in BTC fails.

Is it really so?

I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack. In this way, it had been in fact rising in Bitcoin terms, so we could now very well expect it to go down (again, in Bitcoin terms) when Bitcoin rebounds. Personally, though, I think that Litecoin will continue to rise in the long run whether SegWit is activated in Bitcoin or not. The damage is done anyway
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 6249
Decentralization Maximalist
July 17, 2017, 01:51:19 PM
#99
Well, the price development of the last days support again my theory that the Bitcoin market is waiting for fundamental signals. When a bit of uncertainty was inserted in the market because of the Btc1 delay, the price went down below $2000 - and now that Btc1 is being deployed and first BIP91 blocks are mined, it jumped already $300 to the upside. (Big party for traders ...)

Most altcoins, for now, follow the upmove. But they won't reach their previous highs - it's only a bounce - while Bitcoin probably will if everything plays out well with Segwit. As I expected. LTC price is increasing slower than most other coins' price - because LTC has only a chance to keep its value if Segwit in BTC fails.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
July 16, 2017, 01:05:08 PM
#98
Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

I guess it also cuts backwards as well

So I could just as well say that "the cost of any cryptocoin tends to gravitate toward its market price"© (you can quote me on this). Really, the costs of mining are ultimately determined by the mined coin price. For example, if the price rises miners can raise their expenses keeping their profit margin more or less the same. In this way, if the price rises quickly, we should soon expect the costs of mining rise too since more miners will enter the competition. And this competition will necessarily reduce profits margins to a minimum, which means costs coming close to market price. As to me, this inference is more correct

Correct.

But again, only with mined coins. The premined/POS cryptos are fked, they have no mining floor to fall back on that is driven by supply/demand economics

In fact, this is basic economics

But you seem to be missing something here. Premined coins are already mined so they are out of the equation completely. What I say here refers only to coins that are currently being mined. In this way, the coins that have been mined in the past (premined coins included) are not part of the picture altogether. It is today's cost of mining that eventually moves closer and closer to today's price. Costs that have been made in the past can even be higher than the current price but they are not considered
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
July 16, 2017, 10:15:04 AM
#97
Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.
I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.
Isn't the 2 MB HF supposed to be 3 months later SW activation?
They say 6 months in the New York Agreement. Has there been any new info?
Garzik is twitting this:
https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/886602276814471168
Interesting. Don't know why they changed it, but if so, I'll have to revise it to November 2017.
legendary
Activity: 3780
Merit: 5429
July 16, 2017, 10:12:31 AM
#96
Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

I guess it also cuts backwards as well

So I could just as well say that "the cost of any cryptocoin tends to gravitate toward its market price"© (you can quote me on this). Really, the costs of mining are ultimately determined by the mined coin price. For example, if the price rises miners can raise their expenses keeping their profit margin more or less the same. In this way, if the price rises quickly, we should soon expect the costs of mining rise too since more miners will enter the competition. And this competition will necessarily reduce profits margins to a minimum, which means costs coming close to market price. As to me, this inference is more correct

Correct.

But again, only with mined coins. The premined/POS cryptos are fked, they have no mining floor to fall back on that is driven by supply/demand economics.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
July 16, 2017, 10:08:53 AM
#95
Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

I guess it works better in reverse

So I could say that "the cost of mining a coin tends to gravitate toward its market price" (you can quote me on this too, ©). Really, the cost of mining is ultimately determined by the price of the coin. For example, if the price rises, we should soon expect the cost of mining to rise as well since more miners will enter the competition being attracted by increased profits. And this competition will eventually reduce profit margins to a minimum, which necessarily means costs coming close to market price. As to me, this inference is more correct
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
July 16, 2017, 10:07:33 AM
#94
Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.
I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.
Isn't the 2 MB HF supposed to be 3 months later SW activation?
They say 6 months in the New York Agreement. Has there been any new info?
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 523
July 16, 2017, 10:01:28 AM
#93
Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.
I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

It will frighten people, and become a good news for traders as they could keep buy and sell to extract more profits.
I thought bitcoin price will be stable after reach $1800 and won't decrease any further, but I may be wrong.
I expected for bitcoin price recover after August 1st but uncertain news may influence people to sell, it is a loss to sell bitcoin at the moments. Just make sure you sell if there's no any other option to get cash.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
July 16, 2017, 09:56:11 AM
#92
Yeah. Nothing new under the sun.

But admittedly, there is and has always been a tail risk of "failure" for Bitcoin where it could be supplanted. We've seen a scamcoin come close on paper this bubble (with 80% of BTC's cap). I'm faithful we'll manage to upgrade to Segwit, have Lightning Network etc., but I do want to avoid this risk entirely.

This bear market must end with Bitcoin as the clear victor, smashing all the scamcoins. Currently 49% dominance, still more to go.
legendary
Activity: 3780
Merit: 5429
July 16, 2017, 09:37:53 AM
#91
Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.
I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

Yeah, it seems like Bitcoin will perpetually and forever have another "enemy" or "event" on the horizon or around the corner that is attempting to thwart or undermine it. It's never ending.

That being said though, I think that the Bitcoin market will mostly trade on bot-driven technicals and in hindsight this mini bubble will look pretty much exactly like every other one did, with a double top and gradual wane. It'll probably take until mid summer next year before we start to see a final bottom.

Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
July 16, 2017, 09:23:53 AM
#90
Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.
I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
July 14, 2017, 06:45:12 PM
#89
The Global Crypto Bear continues.
… and continues.

...and it will until it bottoms. We might see a mini rally around August if things go well with SegWit, but unless we can break ~$2700, then we'll see a double top and technical trading resume the downtrend until we bottom.

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

Test of previous multi year ATH should be in order at $1163...  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 3780
Merit: 5429
July 14, 2017, 12:14:37 PM
#88
The Global Crypto Bear continues.
… and continues.

...and it will until it bottoms. We might see a mini rally around August if things go well with SegWit, but unless we can break ~$2700, then we'll see a double top and technical trading resume the downtrend until we bottom.

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
July 14, 2017, 12:10:46 PM
#87
The Global Crypto Bear continues.
… and continues.
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