Topic: Globb0 BTC charts - page 14. (Read 6636 times)

I think that my overall point was not even really any kind of an attempt to predict short term BTC prices.

Yeah, we can have all kinds of analysis and theories about where the BTC price might be going in the short term and why, and even when we are seeming to be 90% right in our analysis regarding what way the BTC price should go, the price still ends up going in the opposite direction, and perhaps those kinds of opposites happen because bitcoin still is quite relatively illiquid as compared to other assets, and if some BIG player wants to push the BTC price in one direction or another in the short term, maybe other whales might not really feel so strongly as to go against him, so he is able to push the BTC price, in the short term, in the direction that he wants because he is willing to inject capital in that direction.  Sure, sometimes, such whale fails to achieve his short term objectives, too.

So, in essence, I tend to poo poo technical analysis quite a bit, even though sometimes it is interesting to view what some members are saying in regards to price pressures and dynamics that they see based on a variety of indicators in the charts.... but in the end, there has been a lot of appreciation of value that had come to people who have either completely refrained from trading and/or engaged in tactics that merely involve buying regularly and maybe from time to time attempting to buy a bit more on dips.  I am NOT suggesting to NOT play around at all, but I personally believe that any trading should be a tactic that involves a minority of the value of the BTC holdings of anyone who seriously wants to profit overall from the ongoing accumulation of BTC.

Of course, one of the main sure things in bitcoin continues to be its ongoing and seemingly inevitable volatility, so even if we consider that maybe the BTC price is ultimately going to go up in the long term, and it has good odds in terms of being a seemingly decently great asymmetric bet towards the upside.  In the short term, there are likely ways to attempt to profit from the seeming inevitable volatility - without having great insight towards how much probability to assign to one price direction or another.

So, yeah it seems that some of BTC's volatility has gone down somewhat with the increases in the market cap, so it takes much BIGGER players to push BTC prices in extremes, but the ongoing entrance of BIGGER and BIGGER players into bitcoin does seem to cause a decent amount of continued ongoing extreme volatility, and maybe BTC has to accomplish another 50x to 100x increase in its market cap before the volatility simmers down a bit, and even a 50x increase in BTC market only puts bitcoin in the neighborhood of Gold's current market cap, and many folks theorize that bitcoin has attributes that make it much better than gold in terms of scarcity, verifiability, portability, divisibility and ease of NOT having to rely on as many third parties, so in many senses, even 100x price appreciation from here remains a kind of small potatoes, and likely will continue to experience volatility, but likely continued lessening of volatility as the world gets used to bitcoin and its various value propositions.. so in the meantime, HODLers should be able to figure out ways to profit from the ongoing likely upwards potential that is likely to be accompanied by inevitable and diminishing volatility, but it still could take a few more halvening cycles for bitcoin to solidly get above gold's market cap, but at the same time, we cannot even be sure about how quickly any of the outrageousness can happen based on seemingly crazy-ass monetary (and safe haven asset) times in which we currently live.

I was not frustrated at all I was excited. In my post i was trying to show one of my thoughts about market - that in middle term you can earn by "whale hunting". Which was also well described by exstasie:


We had a lot of easy to spot sell signals, no technical buy signal and price didn't want to go down. Someone was filling bags - in most cases it is worth to join him. Of course i agree with all your statements about buying bitcoin all the time because in longer term it will yell better ROI than from speculations and for sure some buys was made by this type of investors but i think that their power is too small and too widely distributed to stop price in the best short position price from technical point of view.

My other system is observing market reactions to big news. Here I predicted that 6100 is only a short stop during 3500-14000 bull run based on that.



I think that every trader should make decisions based on the best data. Charts that you look at show 300 BTC volume where there was 8 000 BTC volume on binance futures. I think that it is the best practise to observe charts and volume bars on the most traded exchanges because that's where whales are trading to buy/dump coins without pushing price. Real volume is showed there.



Based on that breakout volume on 4h candle was almost as big as during 7500-5200 dump and currently is close to average even though price is closed in 7400-7600 consolidation for 4 days. Im conclusion its not that bad.

yeah, it was the weak end. But looking back a few charts volume is a concern a few times.



Lets see where Monday takes us. Still above atmo

What do you think about the volumes though? it looks weak to me, I don't know if we are going to push through $7800-$7900. The bullish pattern is slowing down, and i don't like to be buying at that resistance.

And it does





What now? feeling a little retest and then maybe go for the up

Looking at the hourly great news the resistance seems to have turned to support.

If we clear $8k, then this could be a bull run.

Obvious pump is obvious. Caution fellows.




Looking for the daily to close above the resistance for confirmation

I feel you mate, really lots of uncertainty, geo-politics, geo-economics, the world is changing.

Although their is a feeling that money will come pouring to the market because of the halving, but this is not we are seeing. Some so called 'experts' even predicts the the stimulus package--> crypto, but we are not sure if that is going to happen.

And recently, we have witnessed and for many years, we held on the 'philosophy' that it is a safe harbor asset, with no correlation to the global traditional markets. Those narrative was put to test when Covid-19 struck us and we become to question bitcoin and crypto in general. Others call this the 'black swan'.

As you have said, we have been struck in the side-way patterns for the last two-three weeks, volume is weak and it seems that this spike is just for a short term only. So yes, we might be still in chaos, we don't really pray for recessions to test the bitcoins safe haven narrative. But it looks like we're in the zone, wherein there is a looming economic recession in the horizon.

Moar sidewayz

Is this going to ping off suddenly? then in which direction? mix of bearish and bullish around the place.

What will happen, halving, world chaos, no one has any spare money, etc. etc.

I feel the uncertainty is reflected here

^^ The good thing is that so far we're trading above strong support levels, personally, shorting when we are near the bitcoin block halving, doesn't makes sense.

So we should look closely at the $6950 levels and see how it goes.

To see what we can learn over time and when we were right or wrong.

This is a learning thread from my point of view. and then a record so you cant mysteriously shift to the opposite all the time (like all the fakers) or forget the wrong calls.




Im bringing in a post from elsewhere this morning....   thanks Toxic



Definitely getting this feeling.

I suppose it will go and catch a lot of people out 1 way or the other.

People seem awfully bullish to me. The majority in the Wall Observer poll are expecting higher prices, with most expecting $10K+. So I wish I could be bullish on the halving from a contrarian sentiment point of view but I sense very little fear in the market. This is unlike early 2016 where there was persistent fear around dropping hash rate, which the market bucked, and price doubled by June.

This time, the market has already doubled and bulls seem expectant of more. That makes me wary. The $8,000s are still possible in the shorter term but my overall sense is that bulls are greedy and need to be shaken out. Same with the stock market.

Well, this time around, we had a couple of run ups in the BTC price that caused BTC prices to be above the mean of the four year fractal or where the stock to flow model might suggest, and so currently, we are in a spot that is very close to the mean.

Yeah, none of those models are even close to guarantee, but there is likely some truth in a kind of tension that is created from the passage of time, increased adoption and the coupling of a halvening (every 4 years) in the midst of it.

I have very few doubts that the halvening is going to create upwards pressures on BTC price, but I have a lot less confidence in trying to assert that allowance of that pressure to go upwards is going to play out either like the past cycles or even in a way that we can say that it has to happen now.

At the same time, we have forces that want to either show that the models are not true or to cause them to shift down on the curve, so even if they are true, they are a smaller magnitude than expected.  So in the end we cannot really count on when exactly or how exactly a likely upwards pressure is going to play out, even though betting on the likelihood of upwards movement seems to be a bet that is in your favor... and there is really no reason to doubt that bitcoin is not going continue as amongst the better performing assets, if not the best... does that mean it is the best because it is the least worse, well I hope not, but we are really in uncertain times,

and there might be some people pushing for Armageddon to play out too...   Armageddon scenarios still seem to be less than 8-10% odds - sure they have come up from the about 1% or less odds from a couple of months ago, but they are not something to be putting too much preparations into when the way more likely scenarios do not end in Armageddon.. but instead end in various ways that bitcoin performs relatively well (closest competition seems to be gold, and that remains quite heavy and even difficult to divide and verify or to otherwise to really practically deal with, even if Armageddon were to come).

Precisely this, now people believe that before halving the price will fall and I am convinced that it will rise.

I note your above comment of seeming frustration, Tytanowy Janusz:
"Who is buying?
Literally no one. I don't see even a single reason why to buy now. Even a single buy signal."


Actually one of the strongest tactics in bitcoin is to play the longer term, so in that regard, it is always good to buy bitcoin, so long as your time horizon for any one purchase is 4 years or longer.

Additionally, if you have 10 years or more in your investment horizon, then a lot of your buys early in your time horizon will likely give you an additional 6 years of more for them to just ride out, and in that regard, bitcoin seems to continue to be an asymmetric bet that has very great odds of paying off well.

Sure, there is no problem with what Globb0 is attempting to do here, which is perhaps try to play around with some short term and try to stack some more sats, but hopefully the overall strategy remains trying to accumulate bitcoin and perhaps even just stacking sats aside (that you do not trade) in order to make sure that you continue to build your principle, don't gamble too much and are largely attempting to hedge on the long term (rather than short term) upside (even if maybe in the short term, from time to time, you might make some decent calls, if you are mostly aiming for the long term and largely accumulating, then it might NOT make a whole hell of a lot of difference if you happen to stack some sats around our current $6,800 prices or if you got some in the lower $4ks a month ago or if you happen to have to buy some in the $8-$9k range a year ago (or maybe even later in this year).  

TLDR:  Anytime is good to buy bitcoin, whether others are buying it or not, as long as you do not get too overly excited and you can just continue to buy on a regular basis.  One of the realities, especially of younger folks, will be that they might not have any kind of lump sum of cash, and therefore they have to buy over years and years and years, and once a bit of principle is built up, then maybe they can take a part of what they have built up and play around with it (just always paying attention that they the are continuing to stack on the side and not gambling with too much of their principle on short term bets that may or may not play out).  

The daily does look beary right now.

RSI continues to look flat in the middle



Looking in the hourly there is almost an essence of a head and shoulders pattern.


Hmmmm

That should serve as a reminder of the gravity of this situation. The scale of economic loss entailed by these shutdowns is completely unprecedented. We've never seen GDP contractions this big this quickly, or unemployment numbers nearly this large. Oil underpins the entire global economy, so when it collapses (due to both oversupply and unprecedented lack of demand) I think we should take note. It's not going to be "back to normal" in June no matter how much everyone hopes for it.

In a way, the oil market is acting much more rationally than stocks, which seem totally disconnected from the economy right now.

As I already pointed out its extreme case but I didn't expect it to be that extreme. Negative prices has never happened before. What does that mean? This contract closes today. XXX barrels was contracted, XXX barrels was produced and XXX barrels has to be sent to buyers. If you hold this contract till tomorrow you will receive oil in May or you will have to pay for rolling contract (which simply means paying for storing actual goods. This fee is enormous now due to storage shortage - to be honest i don't know how much is that). Most retail trades does not want to store 1000 barrels in home (JK), so they need to sell. Everyone that actually need oil already bought to the maximum of storage space, and they can't get more even with negative price.

So in other words price is negative because no one from actual users (f.e. refineries) is able to get more oil in May and a bunch of traders needs to get out of trade to not have problem with xxx barrels in front of their house (also paying for transport) or being hit with contract roll fee (which I don't know how high it is in current circumstances). So you (retail trader) pay someone (that's what selling in negative price is) for taking this risk out of you. Whole last month i was reading about going long on oil because Trump won't let oil to be that low for long. Those who did that now has to sell.

At least that's how I understand this extreme case.

I don't know if you will, what does the negative number even mean? how can something cost less than 0 in the future?

Its all good everything in the world is part of the system. Discussion is welcomed.


Negative interest rates, now You pay me to take oil? wtf?

I definitely failed in the predicting the future sweepstakes 2010 I got none of these right.


Working at the moment I will get to the charts later, I fear mor of the same old side rumble though ofc

G0