so, disclaimer: i dont do TA, rarely look at charts or even the price of corn most days. got some stuff laddered on exchange for whatever happens and the rest is hodl.
so why post? well went to log into a bank account today and the back end was down and was informed the system crashed "with all the people looking stimulus money."
huh.
so for years banks push us to bank online as much as possible and now that they have their wish.. only drive through and limited appoints for anything else that needs an in bank visit with a human.
and they flub it with crappy infrastructure.
so this is my TA: btc wins simply because no financial institution has the tech to play reliably anymore. all traditional banks have just patches to COBOL programs (heh i took that language in college) and patch patch patch print brrrr brrr brr
Topic: Globb0 BTC charts - page 16. (Read 6636 times)
Good thing $6600'ish hasn't been touch, but the pressure is still on the bulls.
This is the danger zone for me, we might see a big drop if that support levels are broken. So we need to wait if this is going to be validated in the next coming days. If it's invalidated then obviously, we might see some upside.
This is the danger zone for me, we might see a big drop if that support levels are broken. So we need to wait if this is going to be validated in the next coming days. If it's invalidated then obviously, we might see some upside.
We were rejected by the 50DMA again. Do you think we can see the $4-5K on the halving ?
I recognise a similar triangle here, I cant say at the moment the price direction. I feel like I'm standing on shifting sand.
Such a tease the triangle didn't close broken yet.
What a tease, in fact look few days its been completely neutral like someone turned off the machine.
Look also RSI. "Clear!" *KAchung* "Clear!" *Kachung*
Lets get into the hourly view and see
Well, look its conforming quite well to the boundaries, what will happen? hmmmmmm
Oh yeah, forgot my other duties!
We were rejected by the 50DMA again. Do you think we can see the $4-5K on the halving ?
Reply to last few posts
The beast is eating itself
The beast is eating itself
@Ty I actually agree with you, there's everyone selling and there isn't a buy signal, but just last week we were seeing record lows for deposits to exchanges. And on Friday we're seeing BitMEX refilling hot wallets with over $1B of btc.
Which tells me, people aren't selling. They're even withdrawing from exchanges. So they're holding. Not buying. Only traders, people who need money, all those like you said, are selling. So we're seeing slow drops at low volumes.
Good news for us.
Which tells me, people aren't selling. They're even withdrawing from exchanges. So they're holding. Not buying. Only traders, people who need money, all those like you said, are selling. So we're seeing slow drops at low volumes.
Good news for us.
That's impossible. Nobody is that dumb.
Overleveraged shorts does not have brain. Liquidated positions will be buying that day. I would also like to point out that we never had recession combined with FED's "infinite money" [1] [2]. We may see 2200-3200 consolidation for next 5-10 years. Average investor will be close to 0% profit/loss but in the same time he will be lost 50% on purchasing power of his money.
SP500 recover will increase market optimism and informations on subsequent prints will reduce risk aversion - I was never more bullish on bitcoin (long term 1-5 years)
Just take a look how the market reacted to unemployment data that were many times worse than analysts' estimates. Resistance to bad data is the first determinant of the dip.
The S&P500 might end up makin a new ATH before it finally starts breaking down and breaks the low of March.
That's impossible. Nobody is that dumb. The market is pricing in massive economic contractions right now, not just slowdowns. We're past the point where this could be considered a few week long disruption. It's a confirmed recession now, one that is likely to continue into 2021 based on all reasonable projections.
Many DOW and SPX companies (who have mostly yet to release financials for Q1 yet) are looking at 20-90% revenue reductions. The stock market maybe disconnected from overall economic health, but it is not that disconnected from company financial health.
At best, the SPX might retrace to the 0.618-0.786 before it gets sold off to hell. And that's an optimistic view.
2 trend lines have been broken already, not a good sign. Price have been slowly dropping after touching $7300, so that's around what? 5%-6% decline. And it seems that BTC have showed some correlations with stocks (others will argue with this, sorry), but it this is true it might take down crypto towards the lower $6k'sh.
a scary triangle, break could be down.
Ouch leaving the triangle, will it close under?
Hourly news
Dare I say pump and dump or at least dump on pump.
1 obvious big dump effort on otherwise low volume.
Big support drawn yellow, pushed back this time.
The trend is still bullish until we hit the $8000 area where we fell hard and had that nasty crash last month. The issue is that it seems to be following S&P 500 if you were trading earlier both of them had a huge down move earlier. So if the stock markets are finally going to make LH and LL then I can see BTC retest the $4000 area.
However I wouldn't short yet, and in the $8K area I would wait for confirmation to short. Too many people want to short the $8K area which makes me cautious about opening any positions there. Plus who knows when the stock markets could turn. The S&P500 might end up makin a new ATH before it finally starts breaking down and breaks the low of March. Currently on the hourly its bullish and who even knows if they will stay correlated in the future. BTC might trade sideways or go down while S&P500 keeps going up and up or vice versa.
However I wouldn't short yet, and in the $8K area I would wait for confirmation to short. Too many people want to short the $8K area which makes me cautious about opening any positions there. Plus who knows when the stock markets could turn. The S&P500 might end up makin a new ATH before it finally starts breaking down and breaks the low of March. Currently on the hourly its bullish and who even knows if they will stay correlated in the future. BTC might trade sideways or go down while S&P500 keeps going up and up or vice versa.
Maybe it's because of the holidays and price will crash making me looking like an idiot.
And it happens ...
I went to sleep seeing how BTC fights with 7200 being happy with my bullish call. In the meantime SP500 futures opens and show direction for whole world. I wake up as an Idiot and BTC below 6750 support.
It looks like BTC was so lazy during last days only because of holidays.
@exstasie good call with this:
One thing to keep in mind is BTC doesn't really have a mind of its own anymore. It just follows the stock market now. When stock and futures markets are closed, BTC price moves basically stop being meaningful. They don't follow through.
Stock futures open in an hour. Let's see what they have to say about next week. If SPX and DOW mini futures open the week bullish, I would say that's very good news for BTC, which is already showing a propensity for upside from here.
Stock futures open in an hour. Let's see what they have to say about next week. If SPX and DOW mini futures open the week bullish, I would say that's very good news for BTC, which is already showing a propensity for upside from here.
I still think we'll eventually hit the low $8,000s, filling this gap in the volume profile and tagging the 200-day MA:
Tim West's TAM system has me second guessing the short term though. On that chart we can see a 13-day mode (see the yellow line ~ $6,700). Per his system, we are on Day 3 of a range expansion out of that mode. If we don't hit ~ $7,800 by today's close, the signal is invalidated. Usually that suggests a retest of the mode (the $6,700 area). Assuming it holds as support, we're on for the $8,000s again.
Tim West's TAM system has me second guessing the short term though. On that chart we can see a 13-day mode (see the yellow line ~ $6,700). Per his system, we are on Day 3 of a range expansion out of that mode. If we don't hit ~ $7,800 by today's close, the signal is invalidated. Usually that suggests a retest of the mode (the $6,700 area). Assuming it holds as support, we're on for the $8,000s again.
We made it down to $6,750 and tested that mode area. Nice reaction, pumping back to $7,200. This bodes well for another leg up.
One thing to keep in mind is BTC doesn't really have a mind of its own anymore. It just follows the stock market now. When stock and futures markets are closed, BTC price moves basically stop being meaningful. They don't follow through.
Stock futures open in an hour. Let's see what they have to say about next week. If SPX and DOW mini futures open the week bullish, I would say that's very good news for BTC, which is already showing a propensity for upside from here.
More of a $6150 retest to me, before going to the moon before halving.
I'm bullish. After 5 years trading stocks and 2.5 years on crypto the only thing that cheated me the least is whale hunting.
Who is selling?
1- Halving traders
2- In need of money due to covid
3- TA traders due to perfect short position (breaking triangle and bouncing from strong trend line - target 4000$)
4- covid panic sellers
Who is buying?
Literally no one. I don't see even a single reason why to buy now. Even a single buy signal.
My whale detector flashes red. We should test 6000-6400 and meanwhile we stay at 6800 - at perfect short/sell price. Market most often does not give you 2 days to open position in situation like this one.
Maybe it's because of the holidays and price will crash making me looking like an idiot. Nevertheless, I posted that because based on my trading experience someone is buying the false breakout.
Who is selling?
1- Halving traders
2- In need of money due to covid
3- TA traders due to perfect short position (breaking triangle and bouncing from strong trend line - target 4000$)
4- covid panic sellers
Who is buying?
Literally no one. I don't see even a single reason why to buy now. Even a single buy signal.
My whale detector flashes red. We should test 6000-6400 and meanwhile we stay at 6800 - at perfect short/sell price. Market most often does not give you 2 days to open position in situation like this one.
Maybe it's because of the holidays and price will crash making me looking like an idiot. Nevertheless, I posted that because based on my trading experience someone is buying the false breakout.
Well the daily did close under the old battle channel so it is lost.
Here is a rebase for the daily chart taking that into account.
Also a scary triangle, break could be down. Not seeming in line with halving sentiment though?
Zooming into the hourly chart
Low volume noted. Its the bleakend.
Its not inconceivable there is less general money slushing around as people lose their income streams and guard their bit of money for emergencies. Will that mean a blead down?
Especially because its global not local, there is no bypass factor for some groups people.
Here is a rebase for the daily chart taking that into account.
Also a scary triangle, break could be down. Not seeming in line with halving sentiment though?
Zooming into the hourly chart
Low volume noted. Its the bleakend.
Its not inconceivable there is less general money slushing around as people lose their income streams and guard their bit of money for emergencies. Will that mean a blead down?
Especially because its global not local, there is no bypass factor for some groups people.
People are always posting that meme 1 BTC = 1 BTC
Im womdering does 1 $ even equal 1 $ now?
Perhaps its 1 $ = 0.7 $
Im womdering does 1 $ even equal 1 $ now?
Perhaps its 1 $ = 0.7 $
I like this theory because the timing works better with the halving narrative. It means the final top will be a week or three out, which suits my theory that sellers will distribute ahead of the halving just like 2016. It also provides much better risk/reward on new long entries. Risk wise, this is a dangerous area to enter longs.
I might be wrong (and i accept criticism with open hands) but i think that halving may not have big influence on the price. Here are few numbers.
1- first halving decrease inflation from ~27% to ~13%, third one will decrease inflation from 3.6% to 1.8%. Every halving has lower fundamental input into price. It's becoming only speculative pump and dump event and investors knows about that.
2- We weren't in pandemic fear during last halvings, we also weren't recovering after 60% dump.
3-FED just announced 2.3 trillion $ print "fighting with covid-19" (it's not the first print last month). Doing that they increased whole world money supply by ~3%. During single print. In my opinion it may have bigger fundamental influence on bitcoin price than halving.
the broad money supply ($80.9 trillion).
Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy
Am i wrong with my calculation? It looks so unrealistic.
4-We base only on 2 previous events. It may be not enough to draw conclusions (when you play coin toss 2 times there is a chance that you will have 2 times tails - you could make a false conclusion that it will always land on tails)
Of course there are a bunch of short term investors that play this strategy (buy and sell 1 month before halving) and the amount of money that stands behind them may push price as you described, but i'm not sure if they will be strong enough in current market situation. Especially that they are mostly under water now and part of them might already dump in fear of covid panic (or was liquidated due to margin-call).
Enjoying your analysis Globb0, I didn’t know you were able to do TA. You hid your skills from us for too long
I’m interested to see where we go price wise in the next 8 or so weeks, obviously a month before & a month after the halving. I’d expect to see a speculative rise pre halving followed by the inevitable dump shortly post halving like previous times. We’ll then continue to rise slowly throughout 2020, calling a top of $13,000 by end of 2020.
I’m interested to see where we go price wise in the next 8 or so weeks, obviously a month before & a month after the halving. I’d expect to see a speculative rise pre halving followed by the inevitable dump shortly post halving like previous times. We’ll then continue to rise slowly throughout 2020, calling a top of $13,000 by end of 2020.
Don’t underestimate the Globmeister, his skills are unknown for us mortals
^ Oh well, it was a short-live rally, bears won, I thought we have the upper hand, game over for bulls for now. So obviously, trend line is falling, but I'm not ready to buy yet, the price hasn't break the resistance line yet.
@buwaytress - if I'm not mistaken, @mikeywith also made a good call back then.
@buwaytress - if I'm not mistaken, @mikeywith also made a good call back then.
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