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Topic: Globb0 BTC charts - page 15. (Read 6636 times)

hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 663
April 21, 2020, 03:18:23 AM
#76
Edit: -35$! now. Didn't expect that.


Damn i went way to far with this off-topic. Its BTC TA thread not oil thread. Sorry for this. Back to BTC. RED ALLERT.

You will get payed by buying crude oil
And hold for long time and then sell it
Twice profit Cool


hero member
Activity: 1344
Merit: 540
April 21, 2020, 03:08:58 AM
#75
Oh well, all has been answered in the last couple of days.

$7250 got rejected again, the green candles around $6950 has been broken, and this scenario could point out to another bear trap. Although the movement is very slow and we might not see those big dumps, but definitely a bear flag has formed already.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
April 20, 2020, 11:49:30 AM
#74
You're a real glass half full kind of guy, eh? Smiley

Only when i'm talking about bitcoin Smiley

Meanwhile OIL price.

link

You still call it "real price"? Its contract price for delivery oil in May it may even go to ~0. This price shows not only shortage of oil demand but also short term shortage of storage and no trader will buy it now because he has to sell it today/tomorrow and a bunch of guys who bought month ago at 20$ are saving money selling now. I might be wrong (not the first time Smiley ) but it will close and next contract will open at ~20$ range.
 
Edit: -35$! now. Didn't expect that.


Damn i went way to far with this off-topic. Its BTC TA thread not oil thread. Sorry for this. Back to BTC. RED ALLERT.
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
April 20, 2020, 07:53:51 AM
#73
At some point when supply comes cheaper than extraction they will be shutting down operations and switching to buyer mode.

Relaxation of quarantine and unjamming of distribution systems would likely case a resurgence in oil price.


The top point was the same at some points in BTC history. Buying directly was more efficient than buying mining equipment and then mining.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
April 20, 2020, 07:33:46 AM
#72
Contango explains the price difference between May and June contracts, but it doesn't explain why oil is crashing.

It's extreme case. Average contango for oil is equal to few percent. Now its close to 80%. Currently, Oil is worth 11$ per barrel (damn 2 $ down from my last post) but you can earn +10$ per barrel only for storing it for a month. Tomorrow this contract will close and everyone will forget about it. New one will have different delivery time and will be priced ~20$.

You're a real glass half full kind of guy, eh? Smiley

Crude just dropped 38% in a day and 82% on the year. You think everyone will forget about that?

I would say it this way: The current contract is the real price. The price differential between May and June implies an anticipated recovery by June. As you point out, the difference is normally only a couple % to account for storage costs.

The June contract will drop due to premium decay and if the economic outlook worsens, it'll be right back near $10 again. That's the glass half empty scenario anyway.....
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
April 20, 2020, 07:13:00 AM
#71
Contango explains the price difference between May and June contracts, but it doesn't explain why oil is crashing.

It's extreme case. Average contango for oil is equal to few percent. Now its close to 80%. Currently, Oil is worth 11$ per barrel (damn 2 $ down from my last post) but you can earn +10$ per barrel only for storing it for a month. Tomorrow this contract will close and everyone will forget about it. New one will have different delivery time and will be priced ~20$. Yes it shows how extremely low demand we had in April compared to high supply that float market without OPEC+ but even more shows that everyone filled "storage bags" to the max and is not even able to get more in May and short Jun contract to earn 10$ per barrel guaranteed profit. Such high contango shows short term storage shortage. I would not look at contract that expires tomorrow in current circumstances.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
April 20, 2020, 06:29:17 AM
#70
  • The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick

It's because of contango. Some futures are rated at 13$, some at 23$ depends on delivery time (first one (13$) has delivery time set to May and expires tommorow. No one wants oil even at 13$ now because of storage shortage). Contract that expires in Jun is evaluated almost 80% higher, 28$ for oil delivered in July and 30$ for oil delivered in August. It's not as bad as it looks like.

Contango explains the price difference between May and June contracts, but it doesn't explain why oil is crashing. I assume oil is crashing (now down 80% for the year) because of plummeting demand as global trade dies down. In that way, it may be a leading indicator of what's to come for stock markets, which I feel haven't fully priced in the revenue and GDP costs of the slowdown.

I'm no expert though, just another spectator watching the fireworks. Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
April 20, 2020, 05:50:18 AM
#69
  • The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick

It's because of contango. Some futures are rated at 13$, some at 23$ depends on delivery time (first one (13$) has delivery time set to May and expires tommorow. No one wants oil even at 13$ now because of storage shortage). Contract that expires in Jun is evaluated almost 80% higher, 28$ for oil delivered in July and 30$ for oil delivered in August. It's not as bad as it looks like but no matter if its 13$ or 40$ i agree that the corporate bond market for shale oil companies in the US is a ticking bomb.

legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
April 20, 2020, 05:44:34 AM
#68
Selling in May and leaving, this rule does not apply for this year, the halving is close and I am almost sure of an upward movement in the of $ 9,000.

I think the opposite. All the more reason to sell. "Buy the rumor, sell the news."

I think $9K+ is very possible by the end of Q2 but the closer we get to the halving, the closer the possibility of a selloff. After 5 or 6 green weekly candles, don't be surprised when we get a few red ones.
sr. member
Activity: 505
Merit: 270
Don't Trust, Verify
April 20, 2020, 04:57:26 AM
#67
Selling in May and leaving, this rule does not apply for this year, the halving is close and I am almost sure of an upward movement in the to $8,500 o $ 9,000.
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
April 20, 2020, 04:04:44 AM
#66

"Sell in May and Go Away" didn't came from nowhere.



Sell in May then stay at home and save lives      Cool

It still feels sideways at the moment, maybe even down on the daily? did we get our up from the up signal? a bit.





Into the hourly view, we see not a lot going on.

The flag pole pattern threatened to happen, would have broken us through but didn't.



Volume is nothing special and we are back to the flip flop.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
April 20, 2020, 03:22:53 AM
#65
Start of the week, there might be some interesting movement. Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise. Almost all of the traditional global markets are green right now, so we might want to take that into consideration as well.

David thinks BTC is beginning its next parabolic bull run already: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54255809

I think Q2 will be bullish overall, but I'm not not nearly as optimistic as him. Still thinking something more along these lines:



With BTC following the stock market so closely, these factors may become relevant:

  • The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick (and large) bailout.
  • Earnings season is here: Earnings are set for their biggest dive since late 2009 — and it gets worse from here
  • I have a nagging suspicion that economic and social restrictions are being relaxed too soon, and we'll see a second wave of infections sooner than the market expects.

The market is very unpredictable right now. Another leg up is still possible in the next week or so. Liquidity still favors the bulls. However I would say a significant pullback (probably to the $5,000s) is a matter of time.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
April 20, 2020, 12:42:36 AM
#64
Start of the week, there might be some interesting movement. Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise. Almost all of the traditional global markets are green right now, so we might want to take that into consideration as well.

"Sell in May and Go Away" didn't came from nowhere.

"From 1950 to around 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had an average return of only 0.3% during the May to October period, compared with an average gain of 7.5% during the November to April period,"

Based on 63 years data. Good thing is that, based on last few years, this patter is less visible but I would not expect this or this:

Quote
Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise

to have big influence on price when we have:
1- fiat printers doing brrrr
2- covid panic and possible second wave of infections
3- halving
4- historic high fluctuation on stocks
....
50- Italy may not recover from financial crisis and sink whole EU - same currency
....
100- problems at OPEC+ that may end in a conflict in the Middle East (US will do a lot for the stability of oil prices)
....
hero member
Activity: 1344
Merit: 540
April 19, 2020, 06:35:45 PM
#63
What did I missed?

Price did broke $6600, however, I didn't expect the price to bounce back quickly after and move to $7k. I thought we will see some double top to confirmed bearish trend, but I guess it was obviously rejected. So now the trend looks like we are in the bullish zone, but just under the resistance zone. So anything can still happened, need to break the resistance zone though to push the price to $7300-$7500.



yes that's really why Id like to see where the current daily candle will close

it feels right in the balance of up or down




Start of the week, there might be some interesting movement. Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise. Almost all of the traditional global markets are green right now, so we might want to take that into consideration as well.
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
April 18, 2020, 06:38:15 AM
#62
What did I missed?

Price did broke $6600, however, I didn't expect the price to bounce back quickly after and move to $7k. I thought we will see some double top to confirmed bearish trend, but I guess it was obviously rejected. So now the trend looks like we are in the bullish zone, but just under the resistance zone. So anything can still happened, need to break the resistance zone though to push the price to $7300-$7500.



yes that's really why Id like to see where the current daily candle will close

it feels right in the balance of up or down


hero member
Activity: 1344
Merit: 540
April 18, 2020, 06:24:30 AM
#61
What did I missed?

Price did broke $6600, however, I didn't expect the price to bounce back quickly after and move to $7k. I thought we will see some double top to confirmed bearish trend, but I guess it was obviously rejected. So now the trend looks like we are in the bullish zone, but just under the resistance zone. So anything can still happened, need to break the resistance zone though to push the price to $7300-$7500.

legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
April 18, 2020, 05:58:48 AM
#60
Right then, left it another day. Lets see what is unfolding on the daily.



Disappointing so far following the up a bit signal, almost immediately looks like a reversal to down. Need to see where the next daily closes. Looks precarious.


Lets zoom in to the hourly view....




Could that be a flagpole formation? ie going up to the same height again?

At the same time its the doldrums, no volume idling along again. not exactly strong.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1622
April 17, 2020, 01:46:42 AM
#59
Probably the most important question a trader can ask himself: where does the market not want to go?

The market very clearly doesn't want to go down.

Yes. My predictions look the same and I again believe in what i've posted here.

I'm bullish. [...]
[...]
My whale detector flashes red. We should test 6000-6400 and meanwhile we stay at 6800 - at perfect short/sell price. Market most often does not give you 2 days to open position in situation like this one.
[...]
I was faked by this dump and lost confidence:


But after yesterdays strong 1D green dildo I'm back in short term bull club (I'm always bullish for bitcoin in long term)
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1521
April 16, 2020, 03:36:16 PM
#58
Still I don't feel there is a clear direction, this is like don't trade time.

Captains message - *Belts on as a precaution*

My bias is bullish.

Probably the most important question a trader can ask himself: where does the market not want to go?

Yesterday sellers tried to initiate range expansion below the $6,555 low. They were fiercely rejected on solid volume and we quickly returned to the previous trading range. This is what Wyckoff called a "spring" and what Bollinger calls a "headfake." It's the fake-out before the market breaks out in the other direction. The market very clearly doesn't want to go down.

We might drop to the $6,700-$6,900 zone to test support first but on the bigger picture, I strongly prefer the bull case. Breaking $7,200 and then $7,466 will help confirm my theory that BTC (as well as the stock market) will keep uptrending through April, before a major bearish consolidation event prior to the halving.

This theory is invalidated if we break below yesterday's low ($6,456).
legendary
Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
April 16, 2020, 09:25:23 AM
#57
heh.


Lets see today the daily chart



It did close out of the triangle, boooo!

But then immediately what's this a reversal sign? highlighted and a few recent similar times.


Down to the hourly,



As above, broke down strong from the triangle but what's this a reversal symbol? note the risen volume.

At least again solid resistance and push back.


Still I don't feel there is a clear direction, this is like don't trade time.


Captains message - *Belts on as a precaution*
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