Topic: Globb0 BTC charts - page 6. (Read 6636 times)

Maybe you have not completely failed, especially if you learned from your earlier attempts regarding what does not work for you?

Also, could have been that you were playing with too much.

My personal system is just a series of longs and I do not short, but I consider it to be largely successful.

I spend nearly my first year and a half in bitcoin (late 2013 to mid 2015) merely just accumulating BTC in order to get up to my accumulation target, which was supposed to be about 10% of my quasi-investible assets in bitcoin. 

So, largely I met my BTC accumulation goal by the end of 2014, and then since there was such a down year in bitcoin throughout 2015, I continued to accumulate BTC through mostly DCA (no real buying on dips become there were's so many dips in 2015), so I went passed my accumulation goal; therefore, once I strategized and started to employ my selling BTC on the way up strategy, starting in about the end of 2015.. sure I even screwed some of that up in the beginning... but anyhow the overall plan that developed was to sell about 1% of the value of my holdings for every 10% that the BTC price went up and then in the even that the BTC price went down, then I would use the sales proceeds to buy back. 

Largely I consider my system to be successful and profitable for stacking sats and increasing overall value.

One of the benefits of my system is that mostly I am emotionally neutral about the short term price direction, and as long as the BTC price goes up with the passage of time, my system is profitable.

I know some guys will suggest that I might try to sell BIGGER on BIGGER price swings or buy BIGGER on BIGGER BTC price dips, and maybe I can do that here and there along the way, so long as I largely am staying with my overall system, even while I do tend to make some smaller personalized tweaks along the way.

By the way, my having had overinvested in BTC in 2014 and 2015 and then being a bit of a scrouge mcduck regarding how much BTC to sell along the way up  (as we know that we are up from 2014/2015), there is considerable comfort in just having  a cushion of profit to be able to sell a decent chunk of BTC at any time, whether on the rise or on a BTC price dip, and either way, those sold BTC are profitable.... maybe not as profitable as they could be, but sufficiently profitably to cause me to feel that I have a lot of options, which is a lot of freedom in itself.

I can also take a 10% 20% or even 50% portion of my BTC stash and fuck around with attempting to trade it to make more profits out of it, if I want to do that, and I would still have a decent remaining BTC stash that is just stored in a long status.  Especially during a long BTC price dipping period, it could be very tempting to sell off a BIGGER portion of my BTC stash and play the BIG price waves to make potential profits, and surely some guys are more comfortable with those strategies than other guys and surely some BTC price performance situations could inspire me to go down some variation of that path in the future (I have not really done that, so far, in any kind of LARGE way).

And if I am going to employ such strategies, my preference is to plan ahead, and therefore I would most likely be selling some portion (or even larger portion) on the way up... not at any point when the BTC price is correcting back down.. that has been my overall approach to anything that I attempt to sell bigger or buy bigger is that I sell on the way up and buy on the way down, even if I do not get anywhere close to the exact tops or the exact bottoms.. I still tend to be happy with my approach because I plan it ahead of time and let the BTC price come to my predetermined price point in which I am already planning to act in one direction or another (to either gain more cash or to accumulate more BTC).

Part of my point here is that I believe that there are likely a variety of somewhat prudent and incrementalism practicing strategies that can be employed that cause guys to become somewhat more profitable by allowing the BTC price to come to them and to NOT be gambling too much from almost inevitable BTC price volatility, and guys can make prudent BTC management plans around that even if they are just buying or selling a small portion of the value of their BTC portfolio with various BTC price moves, and hopefully overall the goal would be to stack sats with the passage of time.. even if some of the shaving off of stats while the BTC price goes up (like I mentioned above... something like 1% for every 10% rise or some other variation) would most likely cause a guy to have less BTC at $40k than he had at $8.5k.. but overall way more value and way more options.. .presuming that he had already largely met his BTC accumulation goal in the $8.5k-ish territory... which seems like a somewhat reasonable presumption for any guy that has been in BTC for 4 years, even assuming if he screwed up quite a bit in the first year (talking about you, Wind_FURY... hahahahaha .. but hopefully, not in any kind of personal way or even OP_Sec breaching way or even any goading to cause you defensiveness way... hahahahaha).

I tried, and I failed, but I recouped my losses back by simply saving a portion of my salary, and buy the dips. It's not a perfect strategy, but it's working for me.


That's a worse situation than the girl in the third panel. Haha.

Last time around, we were still stuck in a long term bearish structure. All lower highs since June 2019. People were just speculating the structure would break into a new uptrend, which never happened.

This time, that year-long bearish structure was actually broken with a higher high. That tells me lots of bears are trapped at lower levels and will reliably be fueling this new uptrend for some time.

If the market breaks above the June 2019 high in the $13,000s it will indicate the entire post-2017 bear market is over. One step at a time.....

Majestic flagpole. Standing proud. Can you do your thing?

I hope exstasie is right but people were also calling the last pullback below $10k as the last time we would ever see that price again. It eventually even went down past $4k (but we can discount black swan event maybe) but still, possibilities may be small for it happening again but I think buy opportunities of a lifetime will come around again a few more times before ATH.

I'm currently biased on my decision and waiting for BTC to break the two important levels either side. Another thing, it's better not to wick out and go up steadily, else I see BTC getting stable back between the levels you think will be seen eventually. 2020 year has made many things possible, so when DeFi tokens have started turning sheer green, there's no reason for me not to believe in BTC but the fact is, we all know we've started changing our minds towards crypto and not all of us are into BTC alone (even when we believe this is its upcoming golden period).

I don't mean to imply this rally is over yet, so not a 35-40% correction from here. The market could easily run to $14K or even wick up as high as $16K or $17K before experiencing one of those painful corrections. It's very unpredictable this far out.

Once we have an obvious swing high in place like early May or early June, we can zero in on retracement targets. Sub-$8K is probably completely off the table, and even sub-$9K is unlikely in my view.

I do think we will eventually see $9K-$10.5K one more time on a pullback to support, a month or three from now. That will probably be the buy opportunity of a lifetime.

Bubble cycle? I guess this ~$2k pump was all a trap and not some healthy upward correction for BTC and even if BTC takes a dig at this level to the point you suggested, i.e.; 35-40% downside crash, will take it to around sub-$7k which is still not bad considering how gradually did we go down from $20k and settled near $3k. If this is bubble itself and if it is to burst, I guess it should burst now before going towards another big rally. I told people about this pump before but nobody listened, at least they should prepare themselves on getting out of this fakeout. I don't see BTC above $10k for very long time (I'm neither pessimistic not bearish, but this is what I'm seeing) unless US Dollar weakens too much that it could not handle the strength of BTC alone.

I'm leaning towards the upper two trajectories David pointed out here:


If this is actually the beginning of a bubble cycle, then we're looking at some very painful 35-40%+ corrections along the way in a healthy build-up to the blow off top. Think about summer 2016, January 2017, March 2017, summer 2017. True, sustainable long term bull markets are characterized by deep skepticism and pessimism in the earlier stages, which is why you get those painful corrections. I believe that's where we are now.

With that in mind, a shakeout to $10K (or ideally below to fill the $9,600s CME gap from last week) seems pretty likely. If the market runs as high as $17K, I would probably revise my sights higher, somewhere in the $10K-$11K range. Something in that ~35-42% pullback range though.

It's during fast short squeeze type bull runs (like 2019) that you don't get those deep pullbacks. I'm not really expecting that scenario to play out again.

Fair point, that I hadn't noticed. Makes a bit more sense now  


Correct, I don't see any up momentum broken. The TD Sequential sell signal is fairly unreliable, it usually signals taking profits at the close of the candle. The opportunity to short would be a Red 2 candle moving below a Red 1, it's all very philosophical to be honest, but I try and pay attention to not get caught out   That said, todays candle closing as a Green 1 would imply going long on a move above today's close, as well as effectively negating the sell signal in itself (as well as any shorting opportunities from it). So without follow through from the sell signal, it's not much of a sell signal, but instead implies a parabolic move could next occur (as has happened numerous times before).


Not that wishful no. From an alternative perspective, the strong long-term horizontal resistance was at five figures, therefore there is a good chance price could never fall back into 4 digits again. The fact I hear many looking at past times Bitcoin broke $10K and was rejected, suggesting that this time could be the same, is a false analagy. Each time this resistance is tested it becomes weaker, therefore, each time Bitcoin breaks above it there is LESS chance of falling below, not equal. Just my opinion, but statistically valid at least.


I also agree that this punishment to those not hodling, or otherwise failing to buy dips or breakouts (or buying at all!!!), is pretty common. I still remember the $4k break to $5k (+25%) in 2019 (don't we all?), and like most people I was waiting for a healthy 50% retracement to $4.5k, thinking I would be front-running those looking to buy $4.2-$4.4k. Instead, price didn't even break $4.9k and instead drifted higher, leaving ony those who were willing to buy the next break out an opportunity to get good positions.

Then we all know what happened from here, all dip buyers were left behind and price rocketed to $14k. This is why I've positioned myself accordingly, knowing that a break out $10k coud mean there won't be a dip until after $14k, $17.5 or even $20k is reached. Obviously I feel there will be a significant dip before ATH, but given what happened in 2019, nothing is certain. The only irony being anyone who patiently waited for $4.5k to be re-tested woud of eventually got there bids filled over a year later!  This is also something to bare in mind I believe.

My gut feeling tells me if we have another 2019 parabolic run back up to ATH, we'll be more likely to re-retest $10k than we are now. Strange thinking I know, if $12-14k is reached and a healthy correction pursues, I don't think $10k is likely, but if we find ourselves close to new ATH in a few months, I'll be concerned tbh.

Yep, DXY is in a big mid-term downtrend. Meanwhile, gold just made new ATHs and is continuing to push upwards. Silver is on an insane bull run.

Very crazy times. Good times to make money.

BTC should stay aligned to risk assets like stocks and gold, all of which still look very bullish, big picture. They may take turns pumping (stocks sideways, BTC up; BTC sideways, stocks up) just like BTC and altcoins often do.

Regarding the BTC chart, that intraday pullback to $10.5K might be as low as we get for a while. Anything in the $10K-$10.5K range is worth knife catching at this point, with targets in the $12K-$14K range and stops below yesterday's daily low.

I think that is part of the reason why I proclaim that anyone aiming at trading is starting out with very small portions of their BTC holdings, and that building up those BTC holdings through normal methods of DCA and buying on dips is more important to accomplish first, and of course, if a decently smaller portion of the holdings is used to trade, then likely there could be ways to practice various kinds of systems that could tend towards being overall profitable... but as soon as margin is added into the mix, then the complexity of the system goes up in such a way that makes it more difficult to ensure profitability (even though the profit potential increases, too), as compared with more simple systems that do not employ margin techniques.


Well when I typed my question for Globb0 (and of course anyone else willing to try to answer it), we had been largely topping in the sub $10,400 arena, and the BTC price had not yet breached that $10,400 area at the time of my post.

By the time, you responded dragon, we had advanced an additional $1k to top out at a bit over $11,400 and had corrected down from there, including at the time of your post a correction down to the 10,500 arena.. so in that sense, surely there could be some time for some assessment of additional correction, and than now that we are back to hovering in the supra $11,111 arena, seems difficult to say that the UP momentum has yet been broken, no?  Even if there might be some signals for more down.. we are surely continuing to get support for $11k-ish that may well even be supra $11k-ish.. and a willingness to test $12k-ish and higher, in spite of some possible signals for correction.. not that I know what the fuck a "TD Sequential sell signal" is.  hahahahaha... sorry for my seemingly lack of cooperation in googling it.


Of course, I am all for buying any dip, even if buying supra $10k and even if BTC prices might end crashing back down to test $8k, but I am also all with you that with so much passage of time below $10k, there might be enough willpower and continued buying support with such Lindy effect and continued expectation that BTC has had enough 4 digits that there is sufficient amount of desire throughout the BTC buyer base to go up from here, causing 4 digits to be a thing of the past, except maybe for some short-lived blip that might take place...

wishful and not technical on my behalf in terms of analysis of likely ongoing moving up of BTC buying support, perhaps?


We are likely coming to similar conclusions, dragon, in terms of considering that there seems to remain decent ongoing upwards BTC price pressures, and surely both of us know that sometimes there might be some purposeful punishment (or do we call it manipulation?) attempts going on that won't allow BTC prices to correct back down to what might seem to be reasonable and prudent levels... So in that regard, my philosophy has continued to largely be that of a HODLer who will error on the side of HODLing through.. even if the charts might be suggesting that a correction is necessary or reasonable... which we also realize that with such an ongoingly small market cap, BTC continues to have crazy-ass moments of unreasonableness... which feel better when they are towards the upside rather than to the downside, and we know that direction can also rapidly change, too (which does not really seem to be happening, currently, as I type).

Thats brave calling a top after such action, most of us would presume its set to go on a run now after beating this prior boundary thats held for so long.     Today 10500 was the pullback low and that makes sense to most of us, for some reason my brain said watch 10900 for an area to mark but hopefully if I'd been awake I'd have remembered 10500 was the prior point of interest so that makes sense.   That low is also in the region of 2 day MA, it should calm at some point to consolidate and all that.

The really bigger picture I was thinking of some relevance and I wouldnt post it many places but Dollar index has been coming down alot recently.  Its notable when the reserve currency loses 1.7% in a week.   Inversely thats a tail wind for BTC so I watch it for any argument in terms of pullbacks, etc.     In 2017 UUP fell the whole year, it was of some benefit imo though its macro and not directly connected, its probably also no coincidence gold is silly strong at present.

^^ Or simply alts bringing down bitcoin's dominance to a level similar to 2017's bull run, around 40%-45%.  , and let some major altcoins to pump and dump, while BTC continues to go on an upward trend.

Swap funding rates and Bitfinex shorts don't really reflect it, but that's actually my sense too from traders I know. I think a lot of people were caught on the wrong side of this move. I suppose that should be expected from a 2-3 month long range.


I want to see altcoins dumping while BTC is pumping hard, then I want to see altcoins pumping while BTC is pulling back or going sideways. That is typical bull market behavior.

Not that you were asking me, but I think it's possible were at the short-term top based on a bull flag channel (that's been adjusted to include yesterdays close) and TD Sequential sell signal:



This doesn't imply it'd be a good time to short, far from it, it'd be a terrible time risk/reward wise. However, price coming back down to re-test the mid-level of the bull channel is likely imo, this would be around $10.2K, that'd also be testing the higher high Weekly close. This would also fit nicely with re-testing ascending triangle resistance ($10K) to turn it into support, if this pattern feels more relevant to you, and would therefore be a great opportunity to buy the dip imo:



Personally I find the bull-flag much more relevant, as now looking at the ascending triangle viewpoint it's clearly within a perfect ascending parallel channel after the third touch-point confirmed on the resistance trend-line. It's possible to come back down to the ascending support trend-line, as well as re-test the long-term resistance trend-line to turn it into support, which is around the VPVR point of control, but I'm finding this less likely unless the correction goes deeper than anticipated.

I guess that more positive vibe was right. Kaboom!




Daily closed over the channel. After all this time.

Good.

Maybe you're included in the winning 10%. I was only pointing out that 90% of active traders WILL lose some of the their capital, especially a pleb like me, who has no winning-chance against the market-makers, the whalecumulators, and the insiders.

Is it topping out, Globb0?

Sometimes momentum comes, and then the momentum ends up being irrational with traders continuing to suspect that the top is in.. enter another short and continue to get rekkt as the top does not materialize until later down the road and after several shorts have been rekkt.

Surely, I have no crystal ball, but I suspect that there could be plenty of shorters that had been expecting down before up when we were stuck at $9,100-ish, just 7 days ago.

The small incremental stairways have been up and up and up in the past 7 days, and sure it could end at any time, but still seems a great time to rekk some more shorts along a further path upwards.. punish the fucks waiting for down, naysaying bitcoin, fence sitting, but surely it is not punishing too many of the shitcoin pumpeners, yet.

I would think that we are within a more solid BTC pumpening if we were able to witness more shitcoins getting punished along the way, yet I have no fucking clue.. regarding what is short-term sustainable, either... so currently, for example, if you look at bitcoin versus shitcoin performance over the past 6 months, you will find the two bcashes performing relatively badly, but ethereum outperforming bitcoin.

Sure, some of the money entering the shitcoin space can continue to be fuel for bitcoin, even though it remains so difficult to specify exactly how it might be playing out.. except for maybe some seemingly obvious examples from time to time - but otherwise currently valid BTC price prediction models such as stock to flow, 4 year fractal and s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles do not really seem to give any shits about whether shitcoins might be pumpening or not in the short term.

Ooo what a tease, touching into the overhead band