Topic: Globb0 BTC charts - page 7. (Read 6642 times)

These can be quite tough calls regarding how much to take out as the BTC price goes up, which it is likely to do, and whether more should be taken out based upon larger BTC price moves up.

Even though currently, I consider rpietila to be a bit of a delusional scammer, he did make a good thread, back in the day, that had allowed me some thinking through my BTC profit-taking plans.

(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

I personally do a variation of that, which is to cash out about 1% value for every 10% the BTC price goes up  and then to use a portion of those proceeds to buy BTC back, and rpietila had recommended raking out 10% for every 100% that the BTC price goes up without looking back. 

Of course, each BTC accumulator has to find a balance that s/he feels comfortable to attempt to accomplish, and to set up that plan before the BTC price starts going crazy.  Surely, each of us has the power  and discretion to adjust our plan along the way, but if we at least have a bare minimum plan, then we have a lot more solid of a base in which we can work from in the event that we go to making adjustments to our plan(s) along the way... whether that is cashing out more or cashing out less and waiting somewhat strategically for certain adjusted BTC price points.

I have frequently proclaimed that no matter what BTC investors (those attempting to swing trade) do is that they should never run out of cash to buy more BTC (and keep a plan in that direction), and also never run out of BTC to sell in the event that the BTC price keeps going up beyond expectations, and both of those scenarios are easier said than done... and maybe there is a certain amount of BTC that BTC investors might say that they are going to HODL no matter what.. whether that is 20%, 50%, 70% or some other personally decided amount of their BTC allocated investment funds in BTC... of course, timeline will contribute to how to treat the BTC investment, especially if an investor is either getting really old or an investor has reason to believe that s/he might be needing fiat in a shorter time line (whether health reasons or some other personally specific reasons).

By the way, regarding your proclamation that you "need to eat," buwaytress.  That is true.  You should be sure to ensure that you have largely already accounted for your cashflow, and my own system tends to use an Excel spread sheet to project out my expenses for 6 months to 2 years, and of course, the more complicated your expenses, or your anticipated expenses (maybe including business relations, family expenses and/or other bills or uncertainties in cashflow), the more that you need to project further out and even to keep a larger dollar cushion in one or more locations that ensure that you are able to cover those various basic expenses and emergency expenses that should be considered way before the likely more discretionary hookers, lambos and blow part.   

It seems that each of us have made our points, more or less, so probably we are just repeating.

I think that whenever a person adds margin, the whole matter becomes way more complicated, and regular peeps have enough of a difficult time to figure out 1) what allocation that they should invest into BTC, 2) what is the amount of cashflow that they can afford to invest into BTC without over extending themselves, 3) how to combine DCAing, lump sum investing and buying on dips in a way that is not going to cause them to over-extend themselves, and 4) for the more sophisticated investor (optional aspect), how to little by little shave off profits when the BTC price goes up while not undermining their BTC investment thesis and using that money to buy more BTC in the event that the BTC price goes down.

So, part of my point is that BTC investors better get all of these more basic BTC accumulation strategies in place before they even try to fuck around with margin and figure out the dynamics of using margin including whether they are measuring their profits (and increase in wealth) in BTC accumulation or dollars.. of course in the long term, most of us are likely measuring our wealth in terms of how much more richie we expect to be in terms of how much the dollar value of that is going to be, even though at the same time we likely also realize that the dollar is seeming to get fucked so much too that dollar valuation is also seeming possibly to NOT be so meaningful in terms of a future unit of account... but anyhow, today as I type, and likely into the meaningful foreseeable future, the dollar continues to be a main unit of measure (until it isn't, if such thing happens).




We likely do not disagree very much on these aspects, while at the same time, I am continuously suggesting that foundational systems for BTC investors likely to be strong... and of course, the bigger trend trading is likely going to cause BTC portfolios to perform much better, while at the same time we find so many folks who end up selling way too much too early, which causes way too much emotionalism and then causes them to fuck up by buying back before the BTC price drops back down and a lot of emotionally based and lack of patience strategies that causes the vast majority of folks to do the opposite of what they should be doing and failing to actually get in front of the trend, wait for the BTC price to come to them, and just figure out their BIG SWINGS plan ahead of time by just leaving their sales on the table, in the event that they do end up selling too much too soon. 

Sure, devil is in the details, so we will likely NOT quite agree on specific ways to accomplish and ensure profitable strategies (and the degree of profits may well vary too based on largely small differences in strategies and perhaps some luck, too).

Beautiful high volume pump. Didn't expect it to happend today but it looks very strong. 20 000BTC exchanged in 5 min on binance futures only. 9800-10300 pump in just 10 min.

That's another important lesson in trading. You need to be willing to re-enter a trade after getting stopped out.

Two things can happen when the market tests an important support level: a breakout, or an undercut/wick that quickly fails back into the range. The latter is what Wyckoff called a "spring," and it's basically the most important signal you can observe as a trader. https://tradingpsychologyedge.com/trading-wyckoff-springs/

So this is what often happens before a major bullish trend change. The market dips, runs all the bulls' stops (and also causes bears to trigger sell stops), everybody panics. But as it turns out, the move is faded and the price quickly recovers. All those bulls have now lost their longs, all those bears are now trapped in ugly shorts. What those bulls should do at this point is re-enter their longs. What most of them will do is lick their wounds and get too scared to go long again. It's these trapped bears and hesitant bulls that will be fueling the rally down the road.

Personally I think if we dip below $8,600 after this amount of time, that bears will follow through and we'll enter a mid-term downtrend. I wouldn't expect a spring, although it's very important to be mindful of the possibility and to react when you see it.

Another way to deal with these wicks is to wait for a higher time frame (like daily) candle close before flipping positions. That greatly decreases the possibility of getting trolled.

What I've learnt previously is just take these stop loss and put your entry far closer to it and then start dealing with the market pushing past there only to return ie. give yourself alot more leeway.    I think both those areas are the boundaries, putting a stop loss there probably means the trade ends just as its tested and could reverse back in favour.
   High over this weekend is near to 9779 which is just an old fib line, first point of some resistance going up past 10k.   Yearly average at 8558 is less probable now but if we were to break down, that kind of price is where I think some buy or closing of shorts happens and we reattempt higher.  
  Its definitely harder to go short but I just use that to hedge so Im net long.

Most traders lose money because they trade emotionally without a plan. The above is a means of implementing a systematically profitable strategy: letting your winners run, and cutting your losers early. Your potential gains should always significantly outweigh your potential losses, every single time. Most traders do the exact opposite.


How does that change the analysis? Shorting to the $6Ks then looking for an opportunity to flip long seems sensible in that case, no?

Agree, but i'm concerned about how weak this bounce is and how low volume there is considered that we just broke resistance on 1h:



And fighting right below very strong 2.5 year trend line.

More sideways, but also a more positive vibe?

I know how it works, but how is active trading treating most of the plebs like us? 90% of "traders" are unprofitable, and 10% are profitable, but I believe only the top 2% or 3% are making massive profits.

Plus for context, the post you quoted is a reply to someone who said that, "he is long term bullish, and short term bearish".

Firm believer in this, but only time will tell if that approach will turn out to be prudent, things could still turn out really bad if the global economy really does go tits up and many are certain, myself included, that we haven't yet seen the full wrath of a collapsing global economy in the coming months.

It might still end up being a long blip on eventual Bitcoin performance 5 years down the line, for which cost averaging will really pull in value, but the problem for guys like me is wondering if we should protect value near the top, and judging when that top is. Because while I am in the long game, I still need to eat, and hopefully I can pause averaging near the top, so I can still sit back in ease as we come down and enter the next down cycle.

Sure they are. They are both margin trading, just in opposite directions. Same risks and liquidity considerations. The logic in the above post would apply just as well to spot trading (simple buying and selling) too.


I'm not knocking DCA. It's a fine strategy. I think trend trading after the market breaks out of a long term range is a fine strategy too.

Shorting and longing are not the same, nor are they equal in terms of their simplicity.

One of the most simple things is to dollar cost average and just continue to accumulate BTC on a regular basis, which will likely turn those following such method into much richer than they otherwise would be.

Of course, there are no guarantees in any strategy, but there is a certain amount of value in figuring out a reasonable accumulation level and then just getting to that level and furthermore continue to dollar cost average, without fucking around with a bunch of nonsense or trying to time which direction the BTC price is going or might be going in the short term, when likely the longer term is going to end up being UP.... and those who are not fucking around with thinking about both up and down (or valuing their wealth in short term dollar measurements), will likely be much more wealthy in the longer term (measuring in dollars or whatever).

These days having a 5 year or longer investment time horizon and keeping on investment seems to be a reasonable and prudent approach.  Also, 1-10% allocation in BTC seems to be a good starting amount, even though going above that range could also be reasonable and prudent for many people.

That's what it says in my user text  


Indeed, this should go without saying. But for me it wouldn't be a dip to the 200 Day MA, or $8K, more like $6-7K, which we are far away from right now. Nothing has changed here.


As exstasie pointed out:


To elaborate, the amount of risk isn't relevant - only the ratio to the reward is. High risk because it'd be high reward imo, more so than a short-term long position that's more medium risk with medium reward. The reason for entering a short position is same reason I'd happily take the risk in buying into a deep dip long-term, the risk justifies the reward. Most relevantly, I'd happily hedge a position by shorting short-term, as referenced:


For me it's also all about stacking sats   Trading short-term (long/short), investing long-term (btfd). I stopped taking profit in fiat over a year ago  
The main benefit of shorting as a hedge is that if you're completely wrong, your overall investments will go up in value, only your trading account loses value.

As for current price action, I stlll find it relatively irrelevant range-bound chop and noise unless the 50 Day MA is turned into support (that acted as previous resistance), or alternatively price makes a significant higher high above $9,800 where the 0.618 fib retracement lies (that would be the expected retracement before continuing lower). We haven't even retraced 50% of the move down yet ($9,620)! Let's not forget that within bearish trends, dead cats bounce with low volume, even if long-term the picture is still very bullish.

Why risk capital by going long? No matter what direction you're trading, the answer should be the same: the reward justifies the risk.

Here's an example:

• Short at $9,550 with a SL at $10,550 and a downside target of $6,200
• Long at $9,550 with a SL at $8,550 and an upside target of $13,000

Both of these positions is sensible TA-wise and yields a reward:risk of better than 3:1. In fact, you could even do something like a lower risk (and lower reward) straddle trade where you hold both positions.

, and HODL.


Buy the dip,


Why risk to lose some capital by shorting? I believe it would take less risk to buy the dip if you are long-term bullish.

Confluence is everything. When all time frames finally line up bullish, get ready for some fireworks. That's where the real magic happens.

Until then, chop chop.

Yesterday closed pretty bullish. I'm tempted to start building a long position, especially given the bullish action in other markets, but I'd really like to see the downtrend since June 1st broken first. Give me a higher high! So much trolling this past couple months.....

This is basically the bottom line. To me, it's merely relative to two different varying time-frames; long-term and short-term. Like many, I'll remain bullish long-term on the price, while the shorter-term time-frame is sometimes in in confluence with the former and other-times not. At the moment I feel it's not, so I'll remain neutral & as well as slightly bearish shorter-term, bearing in mind the strong long-term support in the near future. Either way, I feel I'll be shorting a very small % soon but still pending confirmation, even especially if I know it's high risk, hence hodling the rest for good measure.

There is about a snowballs chance in hell that bitcoin is all of a sudden going to transition into some kind of stably priced asset, which is frequently touted out as if it were some kind of real and meaningful possibility, and even you, STT, recognize that volatility has been part of bitcoin's way of being, and likely to continue in such direction... Volatility is one of the main things that we can count on in bitcoin, even moreso than what direction the BTC price is going to go.


Whether BTC prices are currently high or low is surely a relative assessment.

The trend seems to continue to be UP, even though some people like to proclaim that bitcoin is in a bear market, which hardly would be factually true for anyone who has continued to buy bitcoin. The longer you have been buying bitcoin, the further up that you would be in profits, and surely anyone might feel hesitations regarding whether the UP trend is going to continue - which then would be a retroactive assessment that we were too high.. but I am surely am not going to proclaim the future before it actually happens.. even though I see no reason to really speculate that the ongoing UP trend is not going to continue, which just continues to mean that bitcoin is likely to continue as a great ongoing asymmetric bet, in which investors, into it, are likely not even going to need to use any leverage in order to have great chances of experiencing decently good price performance.



I do believe that we have seen plenty of times in BTC's history when there were a lot of speculation that another opportunity to buy at the same price or lower was going to come, and it never did happen.  Probably no need to go over each of those times, and surely it continues to be speculation whether we are in one of those times, currently.  Sometimes we may need to work with more specifics, if we are trying to consider what to do, currently, exactly.  Even a lot of traders, in bitcoin, will proclaim that they are only trading with a small portion of their BTC stash, so they do maintain a decent amount of BTC just stacked away for UP, even if they might be fucking around (aka trading)  with a smaller portion of their stash... cannot necessarily fault them, and if they engage in too much risky behavior, they may end up depleting or losing their "trading" stash rather than building it.