Topic: Globb0 BTC charts - page 8. (Read 6415 times)

10k for the next couple years would be perfectly positive, way better then what I'd expect but I've always underestimated BTC possible moves.   It does truly suck for trading though, we've had this previously and everyone was bored and then got knocked off their chair sideways by the giant move that halved the price.   I'm fine if the price stays high if thats what helps the market stay healthy and if it has to go lower too then so be it, prices moves where it has to be to involve the greatest number of participants so we dont get to choose if higher is better or not.    There isnt any real sign yet, no trend means trades are more dangerous and they double back on themselves.

 That sounds more like a long term hold then a trade.   Its way less risky to buy into a trend thats clearly moving in a direction then guess the bottom price.   So that picture of the girl trying to catch up misses that we can re-enter a position any time we like, the trader will buy at 11k and be happy about it as the risk reward ratio is better then when the price was 10k.     Its the same at tops or peak price, dont be unhappy if you sold and it rose another 1k as it can get very unstable after a large amount of gains and need to reset.   Hold small amounts increase as we are in a trend, reduce and realise profits and hold a little near the top; thats technique I see traders use to reduce risk on main markets and I dont see it would be different here.   If its about buy and hold no matter what then the size is often much smaller, unleveraged, etc.

I don't see why any kind of investment in bitcoin needs to be BIG or go home.

If anyone has already been in bitcoin for a while, then they have already largely established their position, but if they are new to bitcoin then they are in the process of establishing their position, which surely newbies do not tend to get excited about getting into bitcoin during consolidation periods, and might even get a bit bored with consolidation.

If anyone has already established their position, but they still have a cashflow in fiat, then likely in times like this, some of that incoming cashflow can be used to buy BTC right away, some can be plugged into a buying on the dip set up, and another portion of that cashflow can be put in a pot to be used for larger BTC price dips, if such larger dips were to occur. 

So, the way of dividing up the sum of money that is available would not be too much different whether you have already acquired a decent BTC position as compared to someone who is accumulating into a BTC position, except maybe someone who is accumulated might become a bit more concerned about front-loading the investment strategy, somewhat, so they would less likely end up being like that girl in the picture.

Front-loading does run the opportunity cost risks of missing out on a possible major BTC price drop, but I have always considered that kind of risk to be less problematic than feeling like the girl, if the BTC price goes in the UPpity direction, rather than dipping.

It's anyone's guess which way BTC prices are going to go from here.. at least in terms of our ongoing seemingly uneventful BTC price range that has failed/refused to break out of $8,300 to $10,200---- give or take what the actual important boundaries should be.

I believe "not yet", if he/she is treating the market like she's the girl in the first panel, which will eventually become the second the girl in the panel, then the third.

Not really, since the market isn't going up. That's the bottom line here actually: the meme doesn't apply at all since the market is ranging. The price isn't running away from anyone.

If the market does break upwards, traders who flip long aren't waiting for a dip, so price isn't running away from them. The same goes for traders who accumulated longs in this range.

This is why the smart way to approach this trading range is with stop buys above the range and stop sells below it. That means immediately reacting to a breakout, rather than waiting and hoping price comes to you, which is what's happening in the second and third panel of that cartoon.

Resistance seems to be staying strong for the past almost 1 month now,so i believe that we will be having this boring market for another weeks or month.

---

we will be in waiting game again now,to find if our holding is worth enough or need to be transferred to another sets of currencies.
at least it is day trader or Holder,because we are far different from each others ,while others are chasing train people like us choose to remain sitting and calm.

Meanwhile the chart isn't exactly on fire. Maybe the girl is sitting down for a rest.

I believe that's trading like the girl in the third panel, which makes my standpoint.


That's also like the girl in the third panel.

Do we buy now and buy the dip if Bitcoin crashes, or wait?

There are many different ways to trade. Some traders are accumulating shorts in this range with plans to flip long above certain levels like $9,500 or $10.5K. Others are accumulating longs with plans to flip short below $8,600 or $8,100. Both are acceptable from a risk vs. reward perspective.

Most experienced traders I know are either on the sidelines waiting for a substantive breakout, or keeping their positions small while trading the range. I'm on the fence myself, not trading much at all. I'm holding both fiat and coins and I have no margin positions.

I never said that you were wrong, and I believe you.


OK, then on what train are the experienced traders currently riding? The short train, or the long train?

I'm saing that experienced trader is never chasing a speeding train. He is on the train already or is waiting for next one. It doesn't matter which direction is it going.

OK, he/she will never be like the girl in the picture. Then what do you believe, is the "experienced trader, who is never there", on a short opportunity, or a long opportunity?

The flip side of that: anyone buying today might miss a golden opportunity to buy BTC in the $6,000s because it might fall again. The unpredictability of markets cuts both ways.

This still applies:


Are you willing to risk losing 15% of your coins for a chance to gain 35%?

If the answer is no, then holding makes sense. Those who are more concerned about preserving fiat capital would probably feel the opposite.

Agree, but based on statistics it will pump, then dump to ~11k, than pump again. So even after breakthrough pump there will be buying opportunity close to current price. It is not about to earn every single $ from every price change. It is better to earn 10% during 30% pump with low risk rather than earn 20% from 30% pump with huge risk.


Experienced investor is never there. If you miss buy opportunity you are close to short opportunity. There will always be next train. Optimize risk and never let your emotions affect your trading.

She could be the trailing stop. Keeping up just behind ready for the pullback from the kid. Closed! Profit!


I didn't do a chart for a while, don't want to spam boring sideways.


Here is a refresh, with the support and resistances from the last few weeks. Its looking kind of crowded



I wouldn't mind if things were a bit more positive.

In my opinion, breaking that line would take Bitcoin on its path to a new ATH.

Plus for context, let me post this again,



Experienced investor also knows that he/she does NOT want to be the girl in that picture.

Experienced investor knows that it is not about catching every train no matter how fast is it going and what are the risks.
Experienced investor knows that the most important thing is not to lose.
Experienced investor knows that there will always be another train, another opportunity
Experienced investor knows that it is not important when you bought. Below 10 000 or above. It is important to minimalize risks. Buying close to 2.5 year resistant (trend line) is risky.

But anyone who waits today might miss a golden opportunity of buying Bitcoin priced less than $10,000 because it might never fall anymore.


It's calculated. Buy the dips, and HODL. Dollar-cost-averaging.

I've been through 2 bubbles so I know what it looks like. Price has remained stuck in a ~$2,000 range for the last 2 months, so.......no. Anyone who perceives urgency to buy right now is a perma-bull who doesn't have a realistic sense of (or care for) whether price could fall. They are not interested in taking a calculated risk at accumulating more BTC.

Remember, price already nearly tripled from the lows a few months ago. Yet the long term (2017-present or 2019-present) bear trends are still intact. The way I see it, being a long term bull and waiting to accumulate lower than here seems reasonable. Are those lower prices guaranteed? No, this is a calculated risk.

The one waiting with no feel of that kind of urgency might also be the girl in the left-most panel.


That might also be what the girl in the right-most panel thought, then joined the FOMO crowd.

One of the main points of DCA is that the person engaged in such practice does not think about the price and likely should not go through some kind of nonsense second guessing whether it would have been better to wait for dips, blah blah blah.

Sure, if you want to wait for dips, that is your preference, but just seems to be bullshit to try to compete with either someone else or your other self over a practice that overall has different considerations... including that DCA is way advantaged in terms of figuring out a budget that accounts for an accumulators ongiong cashflow, so if an accumulator has $12,k extra that is coming in over the next year, but may only be able to authorize half of that for buying bitcoin. Therefore, s/he may only be able to authorize $500 per month or $125 per week.  It would not be so smart for such a person, who might already be trying to stay within a reasonable balance with finances, to Front load the whole $6k at various points of time that may or may not work out, including s/he might not even have such $6k in his/her pocket because it is based on cash coming in, not cash that has already come in and is just sitting there waiting and gathering dust.