This is one of the catalysts I am looking for to spark a Bitcoin rally like no other:
The next time the world has a financial crisis, Bitcoin will soar to the heavens as central banks around the world print to oblivion.
Central banks are all tapped out, they cant do any more printing on that kind of scale. The only 'bank' with a clean balance sheet is the IMF. Next time reality bends the financial class over and kicks it in the nuts, the IMF is the only institution that can step in by printing SDR's.
When this happens you're going to see a revaluation of gold, as gold will be included in the new basket of currencies
And to be in an asset that sits outside the regular financial system at that time, decentralised and immune (to an extent), is the place to be and why everyone is so confident in btc.
In that case I'd say it will be Gold UP, Bitcoin WAY UP.
I doubt they'll get an sdr going. Especially given yesterday's announcement:
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/emerging-nations-plan-world-bank-imf-24555957China has been rebuffed for years from imf inclusion.
The IMF already printed a bunch of SDR's during the Financial Crisis
The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries' official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies, and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. With a general SDR allocation that took effect on August 28 and a special allocation on September 9, 2009, the amount of SDRs increased from SDR 21.4 billion to around SDR 204 billion (equivalent to about $316 billion, converted using the rate of March 12, 2014).http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.HTMMy point is that the US, UK cannot print anywhere near the trillions that will be needed if we have an 2008 mk 2, simply because the western economies have kicked the can and reflated the bubbles with cheap, easy, printed $$ and their balance sheets have zero room for expansion (as they are basically insolvent).
The creation of a BRIC Bank is also interesting. It marks a continued move away from the USD and the dominance of the petrodollar. I think this may give rise to these currencies being given weight in a new currency basket, but you may be right, the politics and non inclusion of countries like China and the sanctioning of Russia are yet more twists in the tale.
Someone upthread also made the point that bail-ins will happen first before SDR's. I agree, the next time an economy or bank goes under we'll see bail-ins 'for our own good', but I think this will just pre-empt a country/continental/worldwide run on banks and a loss of confidence. In this case, the IMF will step in to provide Central banks with SDR's.
Don't know if it will help at all. But my thoughts is that Gold will rise. The old school, the financials of yesteryear will clamour for its reputation and safety while the upstarts, the 'younger' innovative generation / institutions will jump into btc.