Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1309. (Read 2032272 times)

Ohh lol...my mistake?

Now I am in China and here is what I will tell you: the banks are pimping the PMs to the grannies, and they have hardly ever sold anything really worthwhile throughout their whole history: why do you not keep something for yourself if you consider it really worthwhile and act as if you can't wait to get rid of it? And the young people hardly give a dime, the real estates are what really matter after all.

Well technically it isn't losing money if you buy something with a small % of your overall huge profits.

It is essentially free. The other side of the coin is lost opportunity cost. But when in done with small overall % it really isn't a huge deal.

But anyways see you at over $266 by year end for bitcoin 

i have never seen so many people so happy to lose money.

Yes, they tend to exaggerate a lot. And remember, their goal is to make you think the financial apocalypse is right around the corner so you keep reading. IMO, they are correct about what's going to happen, but they have no idea WHEN it's going to happen, so in the meantime they are just exaggerating.

The bit about physical demand is interesting. ZeroHedge, Max Keiser, and every website/blog like it are screaming about chinese housewives loading up on gold, traffic jams on the streets in front of coin dealers in Asia, dealers out of stock and unable to find anything, etc, etc.
Here's what I've noticed: My dealer went from having most of its coins available for same-week shipping about a month or so ago, to now having 90% of its coins with a 14-21 day delay time. Similar dealers have same issue. However, there are still places you can get metals, there are even still coins at my dealer that will be shipped same week, and I doubt there's traffic jams in front of coin shops in India. It's just that prices are getting to the point where miners and wholesalers are really feeling the squeeze. They're taking a gamble - sell now and risk the market returning to where it was a month ago, or hold a lot of their inventory only to have prices fall further.

I think the effect on the market of the naked paper shorts is not to be underestimated and that is why I personally hold PMs. I don't think, as many "BTC bugs" do, that we are going to instantly transition to a world where BTC is used for every single transaction, fiat completely disappears, and PMs instantly drop in value.

Oakpacific, I've heard the "guns and ammo are the only thing that will be important in that SHTF scenario" argument many times and I don't believe it one bit. Sure, there are situations like all-out wars and massive civil unrest where you won't even have a chance to make a transaction. But that is not the only possible iteration of such a scenario, and I'd rather have a chance to buy something off my neighbour than shoot him for it and steal it, does that make sense? In the same way that we tell even the most butthurt bears to keep just one bitcoin in cold storage "Just in case," I think even the most anti-PM "BTC bugs" should keep at least a little physical around in case it's the best way to buy a train ticket to "get out of dodge" during the economopocalypse or whatever it is the blogsters are preaching these days. And in that "manufactured single-iteration of SHTF scenario where only guns and ammo matter," how are you going to buy more ammo from the redneck in the trailer park after you run out from defending your family against the an-cap looter gang? Oh right, shoulda brought some gold Even that scenario used as an argument in the "that will never happen" category ends up defeating itself.

I should mention that I was comparing the fungibility of silver to gold, not to other currencies. I think it's safe to assume that most people realize PMs aren't too gifted in the fungibility department when compared to other currencies.


Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that if we see any massive shift in the dominant world currencies, PMs will take a backseat to cryptocurrencies. In fact it is more likely they'll be stuffed into the trunk or the roof rack. I've no problem with that. So long as fiat gets run over, hit reverse, run over again, etc, then dragged from the back bumper by a chain on the pavement for 5 miles and thrown into an abandoned coal mine - I'll be a rich motherfucker and the world will be a better place

I guess the biggest thing is that, gold and silver aren't what they used to be. Gold's utility has definitely decreased after the decoupling of gold-pegged fiat, but even more so compared to before we had fiat at all. Back then, it was common would trade a grain or three of gold for a cow or whatever. Who does that now? It truly does look like Bitcoin and gold are reversing.

Thank you BitcoinAshley, my goal is to get to the point,  like you and cypher, where I can impart these things to others that don't know

I guess the better question is, how can I decipher the BS on zerohedge and the many true things they tout hahaha. My only concern is that they know that the doomsday-insider persona they put out gets readership and considering their audience, that they too can be easily manipulated for some ulterior motive.

Hi Vokain, there is a crazy conspiracy theory regarding central banks, big bankster cartels (JP Morgan etc.) and the paper/physical markets. Put your tin foil hat on and get ready...

Briefly, it goes something along these lines: There is the physical PM market and the paper PM market. The price is coupled - I.E. the price that boullion dealers sell physical PMs for is very close to the price paper PM certificates are sold for, with the understanding that every single certificate corresponds to that exact amount of gold or silver in a vault somewhere. Is this understanding correct? Hmm.

Paper market is buying "certificates" that say you own gold. These are easier to trade because delivery and storage is slow and expensive. Problem is - much of the paper does not actually correlate to real gold/silver and that is in the "fine print" of the contracts. Many of the traders do not even realize this until they request delivery and are sometimes forced to settle in cash. We do not know how much of the paper is "naked shorting" but there are days when the entire above-ground inventory of silver is supposedly traded in a single day. So increased demand in the physical market (though gold/silver bugs are exaggerating just a bit) is unable to drive prices up because there is this mass of naked shorting taking place.
So because of "naked shorting" en masse by the big banks, this supposedly drives down the prices.

It would be like if I made a bunch of fake paper bitcoins and sold them on MtGox to idiots. It would drive the price down but then when the idiots tried to get bitcoins from me I'd be like "Actually none was specifically allocated to you... here's some fiat money instead." Yes, you're still getting the same "value" back, but the point is that the quantity of metals that are supposedly on the market aren't actually on the market. And of course then it meets the conspiracy theory where the Fed is printing 85 billion dollars a month and giving it interest-free to the big financial corporations to throw it right into the stock market - naturally, some of it finds its way to funding commodities exchange defaults or the euphemism which is "forced cash settlement on margin call."

This is definitely a factor. Gold has certainly retained its value better than any other currency, for longer than any currency in existence, fiat or otherwise, but at the moment it is not very usable as a currency (only certain regions have a decent concentration of businesses that accept precious metals.)
Look at it this way: It's an asset that holds its value remarkably over the long term (decades, centuries, even millenia) and is for those who are invested in the theories regarding price suppression on the part of the big banks using "naked shorts" of paper PM certificates. In addition, there are certain cultures (Chinese, Indian, etc) where it is tradition for the family to purchase gold and give it to the next generation as a "savings account." If neither the conspiracy theory or the ancient cultural tradition doesn't interest you in buying more PMs, that's good, you're probably "sane."

What would have to happen for PM prices to go up? Naked shorts would have to be exposed on mainstream media for a prolonged amount of time, paper price would have to decouple from physical price, and major fiat currencies would have to suffer a significant inflation event beyond what is now occurring.

Good question. Two answers: Gold's limited fungibility compared to silver, and silver's history as a currency (3000 years for silver and 6000 years for gold, IIRC.) compared to platinum and palladium.

A lot of stackers are the tinfoil hat types. So they have bitcoins for the day when the USD collapses, but what about when the "S" REALLY "HTF" and there are widespread power outages? If the USD and other fiat currencies hyperinflate, gold and silver will skyrocket along with BTC. But if you can't use BTC because you don't have power for a month, and the USD is worthless, well, if you want to buy some of your neighbour's emergency grain supply, a gram of gold is going to buy you about 10 times more than he has and it's barely any more fungible than that unless you have "grains" lying around. A few grams or a half an ounce of silver is better for small transactions. 
As for history and familiarity, silver (like gold) is familiar (everyone's grandma has a sterling silver set, they know that silver is valuable) but no one's grandma has a palladium necklace that she inherited from her great grand pa the  palladium explorer.

Obviously that is a really stupid situation that will never happen. But there is a third reason: The folks that think gold and silver prices are actively suppressed by JPM and the like, also have their theories about silver:gold and they argue that "unsuppressed" i.e. without the naked paper markets, silver would provide a much better ROI relative to gold. This is based on the total amount of above-ground gold/silver, etc.

Fourth reason: Arguably, silver has far more industrial uses than gold and therefore more intrinsic value.

One more thing to add, and that is, there are some communities that have businesses that accept PM. Much like there is a city in Germany with the highest concentration of Bitcoin businesses, there are some areas in Texas, Arizona, Utah, etc., where precious metals are seen as more of a currency than a novelty item on its way out. And here the gold fungibility issue rears its head again.

Hopefully I gave good answers to your good question

Well if I put 100% profits into it then yes.

I think I put maybe 5% into it.

briefly, what would have to happen for silver/gold to go up? it's gone down because of liquidity and deflation, correct? the economy is just so bad that people don't have the cash to spare for gold? I've heard so many reasons, most prominent of which is the market manipulation narrative.

curious, with the supply of dollars increasing day by day and all


Edit: i think I found my answer...do any of us actually want an oz of gold if we don't believe it hedges against inflation? Considering that point and its recent short-term drop in price, I can't do much with it and it's a pain to sell. there are better investments, so buying pressure must be a lot less than selling pressure. is there more to this?

oh Lordy  

gold coming up:

Why would you need more than one kind of PM, if cryptocoins succeed and gold doesn't become useless?

And especially, why silver? Why not platinum and palladium? Why?

SILVER collapsing. Bitcoin... the same.

Really, silver @ $21.67? I can buy 1ozt coins for $24 and change (and get it in 4-5 weeks, lol)? This market is hilarious.

Oil at $0.50 per US gallon would make life easier as well. It would also overwhelm all the production capacity in the world.

In other words, relative value and wealth flows completely deny that possibility. The only way those prices would be possible is with a complete paper/physical separation. It wouldn't matter much anyway, as real shortages expose such pricing as a joke. That's then followed by the cry: "Where's the beef?"

Lol

Be sure to meet me in the tech/green room ok?

I'll be in the turquoise shirt.

Haha as if I was trying to hide my identity these past two days. 

One requirement.

Look pretty.

The turquoise shirt is a nice start 

I'm doing my trolling rounds lol....actually I'm preparing myself to meet the great cypherdoc.

 

Ur up early too...I wonder why.

What the hell are you doing up at 2:56 am in the morning?

We have class together in a few hours.