An observation: Euro still under pressure, but Aussie & Cando resilient along with gold & silver.
That seems like accumulation of the commodity currencies in the face of bad news, not a recipe for dollar take-off. These delaying tactics can only last so long.
Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1472. (Read 2032274 times)
CD: You are the one who made this a 'gold vs. Bitcoin' thing where very few of those mistaken for 'PM bugs' on this thread seem to hold that opinion. Cry me a river.
Wave: Stick around please. If you make logical arguments that are not patently myopic or self serving, history seems to indicate that they well considered and very likely will spark a lively and useful exploration.
my problem with you is that you appear to be a skeptic and a pessimist at heart. you think everything is going to go to hell in a handbasket and that ppl who disagree with you are doinks. that type of negativity, whether you're aware of it or not, comes thru strongly in all your posts. this by itself shouldn't annoy me. but the way you apply it does. most ppl around here that really know me understand that i am an optimist and think that Bitcoin is destined to do some great things. that opinion, btw, could be very wrong but i don't think so.
I'm guilty as charged for the most part, though I don't necessarily believe that people who disagree with me are doinks. It mostly has to do with the quality of their arguments which I believe that I usually try pretty hard to analyze fairly.
The only thing I have 100% confidence in is that some of my beliefs and projections are wrong. That is why I focus my efforts on providing counter-arguments if I see them, and try specifically to avoid giving concrete finanacial advice.
i have provided clear evidence for how i bought low and sold very high on gold and silver as well as shorting them on the way down. this evidence, right here on the forum, is tight enough to hold in a court of law. its clear this annoys you. what annoys me is how you threw/throw out lazy accusations and doubts w/o taking the time to go back and check my posts to verify what i have to say so as to avoid confrontation. instead, by throwing out innuendos and accusations, you force me to go back and dig it up to defend myself which makes me sound self serving which i am not.
You and I were both pretty vocal about the possible upside to BTC when it was up in the $10 range and falling if I recall correctly. If I had liquidated PM's in order to take more of a possition in BTC at almost any time since I became significantly involved with it, I'd have ended up fucked like Hogan's goat. As luck would have it, I had USD to burn though at times considered shifting a (fairly minor) part of my portfolio along these lines (Au|Ag -> BTC.) Thank God I didn't.
Even if you can provide a steam of solid evidence of distinct calls which would have made someone wealthy (and do so without leaving out similar ones which work against that) I know enough about the likelyhood of hitting tops and bottoms in such markets to believe that it would still have been a chance-ee set of gambles with a significant percentage of luck. That might be fine for some, but it's not what I am interested in personally at these times. For those who really are: God bless, move forward.
this isn't a "gold vs. bitcoin thing". its a honest projection of where i think they are both going. and thankfully, there are more ppl showing up here in this thread who believe the same thing. if you go back thru the thread, the attacks on me and my message come immediately from the beginning of both my gold threads. gold bugs like you can't help themselves it seems.
and of course waveaddict is welcome to stay. he adds more than he detracts. irony seems to avoid you.
and of course waveaddict is welcome to stay. he adds more than he detracts. irony seems to avoid you.
I was planning to try to control myself at one point (after one of our earlier goings around iirc) and almost immediately you seemed to do some victory lap about some little blip, and I even took it to be potentially taunting (rightly or wrongly.) So I decided to not feel guilty about making a game of things. (Before you ask, no, I'm not going to dig through 1500 posts to find it. Probably somewhere in the 50-ish pages if you really care.)
...
the results look like so (public google-doc link since I don't have a better place to post images) :
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B9ysaVeRnZElcVJHLV9uRURZT28
the results look like so (public google-doc link since I don't have a better place to post images) :
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B9ysaVeRnZElcVJHLV9uRURZT28
As I gaze at my creation here, I see a much stronger coorelation (negative) between BTC and Au than I had sensed by looking at the raw numbers.
Maybe our 'Three Marketeers' are on to something in that people who can be chased out of their PM positions can have a notable (and exploitable) impact on BTC values. If so, carry on.
I honestly believe that almost anyone who is reading this should have some speculative exposure to BTC, and anyone who is prone to put all of their eggs in the BTC basket and discounts Au as a sure-fire barbourus relic which will fail spectacularly would probably lose said eggs in another way anyway should Bitcoin fail. And, of course, if Bitcoin succeeds we'll all be smiling.
If I knew where to get a reasonable set of feeds, I'd hack out a gnuplot formula to make reasonably pretty graphs.
...
Data:
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc
...
This is very cool and an ideal source for easy data acquisition. Lotsa people seem unaware that Google spreadsheets like this can be queried like a database. In case anyone is reading this, here is a command line demonstrating...sorta...
wget -qO- --no-check-certificate "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/tq?tqx=out:csv&tq=select%20A,J,M%20where%20A%20%3E%20date%20'2012-01-01'%20&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc#gid=0"
yields on stdout:
"Date ","Close ","Gold "
1/2/2012,5.2168,"$1,565.80"
1/3/2012,4.8808,"$1,599.70"
1/4/2012,5.5738,"$1,611.90"
1/5/2012,6.9476,"$1...
cleaned up, the query is: select A,J,M where A > 01/01/2012 order by A
Also the output is csv of course.
I'll piss with feeding this into gnuplot (maybe through AWK or some python formatting) later when I've got some time.
After re-orging the data in order to get multiple lines as:
d1,f1,f1
d2,f2,f2
...
e
d1,f1,f1
d2,f2,f2
...
e
and using the following gnuplot:
cat bg4.csv | gnuplot -p -e "set terminal png size 800,400; set datafile separator \",\"; set xdata time; set timefmt \"%m/%d/%Y\"; set ytics 1 nomirror tc lt 1; set ylabel 'b' tc lt 1; set y2tics 100 nomirror tc lt 2; set y2label 'g' tc lt 2; plot '-' using 1:2 with lines linetype 1, '' using 1:3 with lines linetype 2 axes x1y2;" > output_file.png
the results look like so (public google-doc link since I don't have a better place to post images) :
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B9ysaVeRnZElcVJHLV9uRURZT28
The goal here would be to have a simple script (or one-liner even for live x11 work) which would produce an updated chart based on the current data in Stephen Gornick's spreadsheet (or one like it.)
Of course this is as close to raw default gnuplot generation as possible and all kinds of beatifications are possible...with enough experimentation.
CD: You are the one who made this a 'gold vs. Bitcoin' thing where very few of those mistaken for 'PM bugs' on this thread seem to hold that opinion. Cry me a river.
Wave: Stick around please. If you make logical arguments that are not patently myopic or self serving, history seems to indicate that they well considered and very likely will spark a lively and useful exploration.
my problem with you is that you appear to be a skeptic and a pessimist at heart. you think everything is going to go to hell in a handbasket and that ppl who disagree with you are doinks. that type of negativity, whether you're aware of it or not, comes thru strongly in all your posts. this by itself shouldn't annoy me. but the way you apply it does. most ppl around here that really know me understand that i am an optimist and think that Bitcoin is destined to do some great things. that opinion, btw, could be very wrong but i don't think so.
i have provided clear evidence for how i bought low and sold very high on gold and silver as well as shorting them on the way down. this evidence, right here on the forum, is tight enough to hold in a court of law. its clear this annoys you. what annoys me is how you threw/throw out lazy accusations and doubts w/o taking the time to go back and check my posts to verify what i have to say so as to avoid confrontation. instead, by throwing out innuendos and accusations, you force me to go back and dig it up to defend myself which makes me sound self serving which i am not.
this isn't a "gold vs. bitcoin thing". its a honest projection of where i think they are both going. and thankfully, there are more ppl showing up here in this thread who believe the same thing. if you go back thru the thread, the attacks on me and my message come immediately from the beginning of both my gold threads. gold bugs like you can't help themselves it seems.
and of course waveaddict is welcome to stay. he adds more than he detracts. irony seems to avoid you.
I'll piss with feeding this into gnuplot (maybe through AWK or some python formatting) later when I've got some time.
cat bg4.csv | gnuplot -p -e "set datafile separator \",\"; set xdata time; set timefmt \"%m/%d/%Y\"; set yrange [0:10]; set y2range [0:2000]; set ytics 1 nomirror tc lt 1; set ylabel 'b' tc lt 1; set y2tics 100 nomirror tc lt 2; set y2label 'g' tc lt 2; plot '-' using 1:2 with lines linetype 1, '' using 1:3 with lines linetype 2 axes x1y2;"
If I knew where to get a reasonable set of feeds, I'd hack out a gnuplot formula to make reasonably pretty graphs.
...
Data:
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc
...
This is very cool and an ideal source for easy data acquisition. Lotsa people seem unaware that Google spreadsheets like this can be queried like a database. In case anyone is reading this, here is a command line demonstrating...sorta...
wget -qO- --no-check-certificate "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/tq?tqx=out:csv&tq=select%20A,J,M%20where%20A%20%3E%20date%20'2012-01-01'%20&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc#gid=0"
yields on stdout:
"Date ","Close ","Gold "
1/2/2012,5.2168,"$1,565.80"
1/3/2012,4.8808,"$1,599.70"
1/4/2012,5.5738,"$1,611.90"
1/5/2012,6.9476,"$1...
cleaned up, the query is: select A,J,M where A > 01/01/2012 order by A
Also the output is csv of course.
I'll piss with feeding this into gnuplot (maybe through AWK or some python formatting) later when I've got some time.
If I knew where to get a reasonable set of feeds, I'd hack out a gnuplot formula to make reasonably pretty graphs.
Gold Ounces per BTC - Dec 1st 2011 through April 30, 2012
(The range is 0.0017 ounces at the lowest level to 0.0044 ounces at the peak on Jan 8th, 2012)
SIlver Ounces per BTC - Dec 1st 2011 through April 30, 2012
Crude Barrels per BTC - Dec 1st 2011 through April 30, 2012
Data:
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc
The mtgoxUSD is from:
- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.json?m=mtgoxUSD&i=Daily&c=1&s=2010-07-14&e=2012-04-30 The end-date (&e=2012-04-30) can be left out to retrieve through current day.
The gold & silver (& crude) historical data in that chart comes from:
- http://wikiposit.org/p?futures
To cause that feed to have data for each calendar day, I run it through: https://gist.github.com/2802110
Yes, please assume that moniker so the rest of us with sensibility can make use of "The Real Deal" and step away from the paper avalanche discussion 
"sensibility" interesting word choice. What exactly makes your argument any more sensible than mine. I am trying to be nice here. Why does every discussion in these forums end with this type of language which only turns people away. Is that your intent?
3.000+ years of history and reality make the argument sensible. Also, note the smiley...
Let me guess: you have no clue then why physical PMs are going down in value right alongside paper PMs. I would consider arguing a point only when the evidence is on your side; it makes you look less like a disgruntled investor especially when you insult others who disagree with you.
The official prices you see are based on paper markets which have effectively unlimited supply, not the physical supply & demand dynamic.
For many, gold purchases by central banks alone totaling more than 25% of global demand, on top of unrelenting private acquisition, isn't enough "evidence".
If you were joking miscreanity, just try to make that point in the future.
Bulls & bears have teeth. Grow stronger!
Here you go. It is remarkable that all of our paid analysts managed to agree on one thing. 
^ new wallpaper
I follow David Stockman's simple ABCD investing strategy:
Quote
My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains.
^ new fav quote
I suspect that we'll look back on things to this point and see that the bubble was starting to be able to be classified as one somewhere in this neighborhood.
I think that what we have is the gold starting from an abnormally depressed state. I think it's starting to dawn on people that the ZIRP policies and general rigged nature of most of the other markets nullify the traditional arguments about gold being a liability in terms of wealth preservation.
I think that what we have is the gold starting from an abnormally depressed state. I think it's starting to dawn on people that the ZIRP policies and general rigged nature of most of the other markets nullify the traditional arguments about gold being a liability in terms of wealth preservation.
Well put.
Looking at global growth, there's no reason that gold should remain depressed while other asset classes have ballooned alongside the world's real economy.
Gold has been held back from its parabolic rise for nearly a century, whereas real global growth has already hit two inflection points since the 18th century.
i've come to be so desensitized that it doesn't bother me so much any more altho there are times when i want to rip my screen to pieces.
...
what matters to them is that you're challenging their basic economic foundations, assumptions, and financial choices which will work out terribly wrong for them in the future if you're correct.
...
what matters to them is that you're challenging their basic economic foundations, assumptions, and financial choices which will work out terribly wrong for them in the future if you're correct.
A sign of a worthy opponent
If it were a genuine challenge, I might reconsider my position. Instead, it's more song and dance from another bird in the gilded cage.
Most people know in their gut that something is wrong, but they can't place exactly how things are amiss. The initial reaction of youth is often that greedy, evil corporations are to blame. Then it becomes republicans or democrats or labour or whatever party holding political power happens to be perceived as "unfair" and insensitive.
Eventually, some come around to realization that these are all built on the same foundation, but even then it's difficult to sort out what makes sense and what doesn't. It can take a long time to build up the experience and knowledge to find and take the red pill. Even afterward it can be tempting to revert to the official
There will in some point be a divergence between paper and physical gold, but initially both will fall, as people need to raise cash from gold bullion, coins, but especially jewellery, teeth gold, etc. just to survive.
It's already been happening for quite a while. That article was from 2011, and with the beating of the drums to the tune of "gold is in a bubble", the pace has accelerated. Greece has been seeing extremes of this, where there isn't much more being sold at all because few of the people remaining actually have any.
Even if everyone in the western middle classes were to dump all of their gold onto the market at this point, it isn't likely much relative to demand, and it certainly wouldn't delay the rise for long. That's what probably happened last year and has allowed the futures exchanges to keep enough metal flowing to avoid implosion. Aside from western nations, who else is going to sell their gold and silver - China? India? Russia? They have a much better handle on the value of precious metals, so not likely. They'd buy whatever gold the west throws away!
also, this must mean if everyone is selling everything including gold, there will be massive deflation and the dollar will be worth a whole lot, even though they keep printing it like crazy?
Yes, as long as there's still sufficient supply for sale. However, with massive printing keeping pace with gold flowing to market, what happens when the flow slows or reverses? What's to be done with all the extra printed fiat? The situation will be worse than it was when the whole thing started.
that's pretty good b/c it compares prices daily.
i like it.
i like it.
++1
Also makes it easy to see the relative growth trend; Bitcoin being fairly unknown has much more room to grow than gold with its universal recognizability. I'm pretty sure we can agree it points to parity potential, or better.
The latest from Got Gold Report is interesting - note the ICE USD 71.8% short position increase.
Also, a nice divergence in the miners relative to gold.
Also, a nice divergence in the miners relative to gold.
Here's an old one. When I feel like bothering with it I'll post a fully updated chart.
I like it, though it would be genuinely more interesting if the slightly more recent data were more opened up. This is not so much 'cherry picking' as it is related to the mechanics of our visual apparatus.
If I knew where to get a reasonable set of feeds, I'd hack out a gnuplot formula to make reasonably pretty graphs.
that's pretty good b/c it compares prices daily.
i like it.
i like it.
waveaddict: you best stay away from these parts. it was insulting and if you continue to talk like you have been, not only will you be subject to more insults, but also laughs, jabs, needles, name calling, attacks, trolling, false accusations, jokes, etc. i've come to be so desensitized that it doesn't bother me so much any more altho there are times when i want to rip my screen to pieces. which is what a few of the gold bugs sense i'm sure and why they continue to troll me when they can.
and it won't matter if your reasoning is made to educate generally and not directed at any one person, as i try to do. what matters to them is that you're challenging their basic economic foundations, assumptions, and financial choices which will work out terribly wrong for them in the future if you're correct. for that, you'll be personally attacked.
sad but true.
so for your own sanity, stay away.
CD: You are the one who made this a 'gold vs. Bitcoin' thing where very few of those mistaken for 'PM bugs' on this thread seem to hold that opinion. Cry me a river.
Wave: Stick around please. If you make logical arguments that are not patently myopic or self serving, history seems to indicate that they well considered and very likely will spark a lively and useful exploration.
If you would like I could start posting Gold vs. Bitcoin charts again. It tells an interesting story if you use all the historical data.... You know, to avoid the whole 'cherry picking' issue.
sure. it'd be better than the year over year stuff and the "beginning of this thread" update (as if i made that some sort of marker). let's see what you got.
waveaddict: you best stay away from these parts. it was insulting and if you continue to talk like you have been, not only will you be subject to more insults, but also laughs, jabs, needles, name calling, attacks, trolling, false accusations, jokes, etc. i've come to be so desensitized that it doesn't bother me so much any more altho there are times when i want to rip my screen to pieces. which is what a few of the gold bugs sense i'm sure and why they continue to troll me when they can.
and it won't matter if your reasoning is made to educate generally and not directed at any one person, as i try to do. what matters to them is that you're challenging their basic economic foundations, assumptions, and financial choices which will work out terribly wrong for them in the future if you're correct. for that, you'll be personally attacked.
sad but true.
so for your own sanity, stay away.
CD: You are the one who made this a 'gold vs. Bitcoin' thing where very few of those mistaken for 'PM bugs' on this thread seem to hold that opinion. Cry me a river.
Wave: Stick around please. If you make logical arguments that are not patently myopic or self serving, history seems to indicate that they well considered and very likely will spark a lively and useful exploration.
AND, for those who believe in technical analysis:
btcchina price spike has blown up and THROUGH the top of the identically forming flat top ascending triangle that has been forming the last several months that i identified in my newsletter.
that's bullish.
btcchina price spike has blown up and THROUGH the top of the identically forming flat top ascending triangle that has been forming the last several months that i identified in my newsletter.
that's bullish.
just so everyone sees this. who the hell here can extrapolate? seriously?:
so sell everything (including bitcoin?) and hold dollars?
thx
thx
I'm not to concerned. The way I have it figured, the US will do anything necessary to keep the USDX down and they have a variety of tools at their disposal. I figure that the application of these tools will likely be good for gold. Possibly also even better for Bitcoin.
I actually don't rule out the rationality of sitting on more USD in times like this than I otherwise would like to (where the 'otherwise' is near zero.) One way or another though I would and will do my best to make sure I've to got access to a speedy and reliable way to dump ballast.
can u say "breakout"?
lol, love the blue man!
s a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.
I swear, I'm going to have to figure out a way to automatically precede every quoted utterance of 'gold' with 'paper' when 'physical' isn't specified.
In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to PAPER Gold 1,300
I swear, I'm going to have to figure out a way to automatically precede every quoted utterance of 'gold' with 'paper' when 'physical' isn't specified.
There will in some point be a divergence between paper and physical gold, but initially both will fall, as people need to raise cash from gold bullion, coins, but especially jewellery, teeth gold, etc. just to survive.
... or from other assets like
or
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