3 weekly hammer in a row for PMs seems a bit more likely after that spike.
What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?
What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?
nothing
Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1467. (Read 2032274 times)
nothing
Wash, rinse, repeat:
3 weekly hammer in a row for PMs seems a bit more likely after that spike.
What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?
What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?
Kaboom:
What an insane market this is.
What an insane market this is.
I finally understand... you base your analysis on charts from the future.
Yep, Pirate lent me his time machine
the thing i think all the gold bugs are missing is yes gold bullion didn't get smashed down much back then but then we never cleared the market of all our problematic debt either. this time i think we will b/c who is going to bail out sovereigns now that the debt has been tx'd to them by the banks? CB's? i don't think so. they aren't going to sacrifice themselves as evidenced by Iceland and soon Greece who will pull out of the EU.
So central banks will stand idly by as economies crumble, financial systems catastrophically fail, and riots or potentially civil wars break out?
Which route destroys the central banks sooner: crushing deflation into guaranteed chaos or continued inflation toward an indeterminate breaking point (after which crushing deflation ensues)? Both destroy banks, but the latter delays the inevitable for a longer period than the former. Banks will not be suicidal; they'll try to survive in any way they can.
I like analogies. Imagine you've decided to climb a 100m vertical cliff. From the top there's a gradual descent on the other side to ground level. Half-way up, you're exhausted. Do you:
- A. Keep climbing no matter what, hoping that your body doesn't give out before reaching the top or;
- B. Give up and let go, falling to your death
If you've ever tried to climb down from a rockface (without abbing), you know that can be as difficult, or even more so than continuing up.
Remember when I suggested that you call the tops and I call the bottoms?
It is actually true that way way before 2008 someone made the point that mining stock will suffer a certain amount of the fate associated with any stock by virtue of the fact that the are, in fact, stock. The Phyzzz, not so much. For better or worse that bit of advice stuck in my head and has influenced my desire to have a footprint in that sector. A negative influence of course.
FOFOA has ruminated on the possibility of distressed and under-capitalized mining companies issuing shares in excess, diluting share value as fiat printing dilutes the respective currency. A warning well worth heeding.
Gold - accept no substitute... except maybe bitcoins and silver
The center cannot hold.
A solid futures gaming explanation and analysis by TF. Technicals aren't worth a damn in this situation - reliability here lies only with the fundamentals. Also, some very interesting charts.
A solid futures gaming explanation and analysis by TF. Technicals aren't worth a damn in this situation - reliability here lies only with the fundamentals. Also, some very interesting charts.
I finally understand... you base your analysis on charts from the future.
The center cannot hold.
A solid futures gaming explanation and analysis by TF. Technicals aren't worth a damn in this situation - reliability here lies only with the fundamentals. Also, some very interesting charts.
Martin Armstrong's analysis during the past couple of months pointed to one of two possibilities:
To my recollection, there was also a section about gold continuing on to make new highs later in the year, all in the midst of increasing volatility.
You can certainly make a killing by trading the turns in relatively short time-frames. However, what you hold your profits in matters greatly.
What you describe would be like making a profit in Bitcoin trading, but keeping your winnings in Euro or USD when Bitcoin is rising against all currencies. By the same token, gold is rising against all currencies. The only distinction is that, right now, gold is rising against the USD more slowly than it is rising against the Euro.
I'll say it again: a separation between paper and physical gold (and silver, other precious metals, commodities, etc) will lead to you being correct on the dollar rising against prices quoted in paper gold, yet blind to the physical metal's value.
Say I build a house using $500,000 worth of materials and try to sell it for $550,000 - a 10% gain. The problem is that buyers don't bite at that level because the neighborhood is not highly desirable, and the only offer I receive is $300,000 - a 40% discount just on the materials. If I had no choice and was forced to sell, the real value of the property based on the underlying materials would still be $500,000 despite the fact that the contract sale was for 40% less. The buyer (shark) got an absolute steal in regard to the physical product.
A house is not mobile - gold is. If I can't buy or sell gold at a price I want, there are literally thousands of markets I can try at varying scales of accommodation, so your arguments about lack of liquidity in gold are erroneous. If a contract for the house in the example above were selling at $10,000 there would be unbelievable demand, but only after it's discovered. Until that point, I might not be able to give the house away even though it's worth 50x that amount for the parts alone. Gold doesn't need to be parted out - it is the part, the underlying component. It is the foundational financial unit in the same way Bitcoin is proving itself to be.
Physical reality is not going away anytime in our foreseeable future. Therefore, gold is not going away, no matter how many paper obfuscation games are played. That's also why I see gold and Bitcoin working well together for a long time to come.
A solid futures gaming explanation and analysis by TF. Technicals aren't worth a damn in this situation - reliability here lies only with the fundamentals. Also, some very interesting charts.
Martin Armstrong's analysis during the past couple of months pointed to one of two possibilities:
- An approach of the recent highs in May, then a return to the lows in June
- A low in May, followed by a retest or breach of the high in June
To my recollection, there was also a section about gold continuing on to make new highs later in the year, all in the midst of increasing volatility.
You can certainly make a killing by trading the turns in relatively short time-frames. However, what you hold your profits in matters greatly.
What you describe would be like making a profit in Bitcoin trading, but keeping your winnings in Euro or USD when Bitcoin is rising against all currencies. By the same token, gold is rising against all currencies. The only distinction is that, right now, gold is rising against the USD more slowly than it is rising against the Euro.
I'll say it again: a separation between paper and physical gold (and silver, other precious metals, commodities, etc) will lead to you being correct on the dollar rising against prices quoted in paper gold, yet blind to the physical metal's value.
Say I build a house using $500,000 worth of materials and try to sell it for $550,000 - a 10% gain. The problem is that buyers don't bite at that level because the neighborhood is not highly desirable, and the only offer I receive is $300,000 - a 40% discount just on the materials. If I had no choice and was forced to sell, the real value of the property based on the underlying materials would still be $500,000 despite the fact that the contract sale was for 40% less. The buyer (shark) got an absolute steal in regard to the physical product.
A house is not mobile - gold is. If I can't buy or sell gold at a price I want, there are literally thousands of markets I can try at varying scales of accommodation, so your arguments about lack of liquidity in gold are erroneous. If a contract for the house in the example above were selling at $10,000 there would be unbelievable demand, but only after it's discovered. Until that point, I might not be able to give the house away even though it's worth 50x that amount for the parts alone. Gold doesn't need to be parted out - it is the part, the underlying component. It is the foundational financial unit in the same way Bitcoin is proving itself to be.
Physical reality is not going away anytime in our foreseeable future. Therefore, gold is not going away, no matter how many paper obfuscation games are played. That's also why I see gold and Bitcoin working well together for a long time to come.
none that i know of. but how many of them know about Bitcoin? none that have come forward at least. i've never been afraid of bucking the trend. just b/c i respect them doesn't mean i can't think for myself.
That grudgingly extracts a certain amount of respect from me. I am relatively familiar with holding unpopular opinions myself
do u remember how badly the miners got sold off? i remember loading up on SLW at $6 and not being able to hold onto it past $9. how stupid was that?
Not clearly. I don't own any and never paid all that much attention to them.
I will say that I have some suspicion of some of 'the greats' for being a little more on the pump-it-up side of the mining stocks than I am comfortable with. My own suspicious and paranoid nature perhaps.
It is actually true that way way before 2008 someone made the point that mining stock will suffer a certain amount of the fate associated with any stock by virtue of the fact that the are, in fact, stock. The Phyzzz, not so much. For better or worse that bit of advice stuck in my head and has influenced my desire to have a footprint in that sector. A negative influence of course.
You've name-droped a lot of the greats. Who of these people share your current believe in the eminent collapse of Au? Cuz it really does seem to me that yours is something of a lonely voice compared to a lot of the other people I've followed.
I think that Mish and very few others nailed the deflationary nature of the event that we went through in 2008, and indeed continuing to this day. The thing is that it really did not have the impact on Au that I had anticipated having to sit through. My best explanation is that under our 'modern' fiat monetary systems and financial structures, certain anticipated market artifacts can be well obscured. There is a legitimate argument that when the piper's music becomes deafening we _will_ see the expected price collapses and they may effect Au, but I would _still_ rather be sitting on the phyzzz in that kind of scenario.
pre-post-edit: And in a more recent post you've name-dropped a bunch more. Same question though.
I think that Mish and very few others nailed the deflationary nature of the event that we went through in 2008, and indeed continuing to this day. The thing is that it really did not have the impact on Au that I had anticipated having to sit through. My best explanation is that under our 'modern' fiat monetary systems and financial structures, certain anticipated market artifacts can be well obscured. There is a legitimate argument that when the piper's music becomes deafening we _will_ see the expected price collapses and they may effect Au, but I would _still_ rather be sitting on the phyzzz in that kind of scenario.
pre-post-edit: And in a more recent post you've name-dropped a bunch more. Same question though.
none that i know of. but how many of them know about Bitcoin? none that have come forward at least. i've never been afraid of bucking the trend. just b/c i respect them doesn't mean i can't think for myself.
do u remember how badly the miners got sold off? i remember loading up on SLW at $6 and not being able to hold onto it past $9. how stupid was that?
the thing i think all the gold bugs are missing is yes gold bullion didn't get smashed down much back then but then we never cleared the market of all our problematic debt either. this time i think we will b/c who is going to bail out sovereigns now that the debt has been tx'd to them by the banks? CB's? i don't think so. they aren't going to sacrifice themselves as evidenced by Iceland and soon Greece who will pull out of the EU.
then gold will take a smash.
i almost think of myself as a short seller primarily. its b/c you can make so much so fast and i inherently don't trust artificial value that has been pumped into P/E's.
having done it btwn 2007-9, i know that it is certainly possible to make money short selling. its hard though. most ppl don't think of investing from the short side. its either long or nothing. or its un-American. i think that deprives one of an important tool.
i think i'm better prepared for how this downturn will play out. i certainly made alot of mistakes back then. i didn't use cycles as much as i do now, i was more easily scared out of my positions by artificial ramps, i'm more patient, i know that there will be explosive ramps b/c of gov't intervention (like banning short selling on financials), the importance of avoiding leverage in high risk situations, ignoring rumors (remember the incessant Buffett's gonna purchase this rumor?). or how about how the sovereign wealth funds were gonna buy US stocks anytime now?
we're entering a time of unprecedented danger but also one of great opportunity.
having done it btwn 2007-9, i know that it is certainly possible to make money short selling. its hard though. most ppl don't think of investing from the short side. its either long or nothing. or its un-American. i think that deprives one of an important tool.
i think i'm better prepared for how this downturn will play out. i certainly made alot of mistakes back then. i didn't use cycles as much as i do now, i was more easily scared out of my positions by artificial ramps, i'm more patient, i know that there will be explosive ramps b/c of gov't intervention (like banning short selling on financials), the importance of avoiding leverage in high risk situations, ignoring rumors (remember the incessant Buffett's gonna purchase this rumor?). or how about how the sovereign wealth funds were gonna buy US stocks anytime now?
we're entering a time of unprecedented danger but also one of great opportunity.
the memories are starting to flood back in.
i can't take total credit for the New Century short. i was a sub to the Gloom, Boom, Doom report of Marc Faber's back then and he recommended it in one of his letters. as you know he's a real gold bug too.
i also frequented Calculated Risk back then and was a regular poster. THAT was where i figured out housing was going to implode. also the Implode O Meter with Aaron Krowne was another excellent site that helped clarify things. also Mish was good.
i can't take total credit for the New Century short. i was a sub to the Gloom, Boom, Doom report of Marc Faber's back then and he recommended it in one of his letters. as you know he's a real gold bug too.
i also frequented Calculated Risk back then and was a regular poster. THAT was where i figured out housing was going to implode. also the Implode O Meter with Aaron Krowne was another excellent site that helped clarify things. also Mish was good.
You've name-droped a lot of the greats. Who of these people share your current believe in the eminent collapse of Au? Cuz it really does seem to me that yours is something of a lonely voice compared to a lot of the other people I've followed.
I think that Mish and very few others nailed the deflationary nature of the event that we went through in 2008, and indeed continuing to this day. The thing is that it really did not have the impact on Au that I had anticipated having to sit through. My best explanation is that under our 'modern' fiat monetary systems and financial structures, certain anticipated market artifacts can be well obscured. There is a legitimate argument that when the piper's music becomes deafening we _will_ see the expected price collapses and they may effect Au, but I would _still_ rather be sitting on the phyzzz in that kind of scenario.
pre-post-edit: And in a more recent post you've name-dropped a bunch more. Same question though.
i also regularly listened/listen to Antal Fekete, Steve Keen, Don Coxe, Michael Panzer, Jim Rogers, Nicole Foss, Denninger, Russ Roberts, Bill Fleckenstein, Peter Schiff, Prechter, Bill Bonner, Jesse's Cafe, Bill Murphy, Eric King, McAlvaney, Zerohedge, Andy Horowitz etc, etc. We all have our favorites.
the memories are starting to flood back in.
i can't take total credit for the New Century short. i was a sub to the Gloom, Boom, Doom report of Marc Faber's back then and he recommended it in one of his letters. as you know he's a real gold bug too.
i also frequented Calculated Risk back then and was a regular poster. THAT was where i figured out housing was going to implode. also the Implode O Meter with Aaron Krowne was another excellent site that helped clarify things. also Mish was good.
i can't take total credit for the New Century short. i was a sub to the Gloom, Boom, Doom report of Marc Faber's back then and he recommended it in one of his letters. as you know he's a real gold bug too.
i also frequented Calculated Risk back then and was a regular poster. THAT was where i figured out housing was going to implode. also the Implode O Meter with Aaron Krowne was another excellent site that helped clarify things. also Mish was good.
my gaud Man, you just can't let it go. we're talking about gold here.
its not like the thread title says "Gold: I smell a trap that's gonna slam shut right NOW!"
and why is it that guys like you and silverbox latch on to the posting date of the thread as some sort of starting point? i already admitted i was 9d early from the top. these are general direction calls for the longterm and i don't need to specify an exact timeframe from point a to point b.
as an investor you just want to get as close to a major corner as possible and ride a big trend in the opposite direction. that's what i've done and i'm sorry you're so pissed off about it. i guess i should take that as a compliment.
I was just seeking answers to satisfy my curiosity, those numbers have to come from somewhere, correct?
they came from 9d after i started the thread. would you rather be warned when the plane hits the Twin Towers or a little ahead of time?
Quote
Another curious questions: For the "hundreds of thousands" (dollars, I assume) bullion you switched to BTCs last Summer/Fall, how could that be a good trade, considering the BTC price drop since then?
as i said before, i started buying BTC @ $1.6 the day before Easter last year. so it wasn't like i sold my gold/silver first and dumped it right away into Bitcoin as a one for one exchange. i didn't start selling silver until it went into its parabola in May. the whole transition has been a process.
Quote
Last question (I promise): back in 2005/2006, why did you decide to buy PM bullion in the first place? Feel free to ignore me if you don't want to answer.
for all the same reasons you have. it was a real money for thousands of yrs with a fixed supply, apparently stored and valued by CB's. its hard currency. i began listening to Jim Puplava, James Turk back then and he and others like them were a great influence. i had a GoldMoney acct and even an acct at Credit Suisse in Switzerland within which i held some gold. i also had 2 safes stuffed with pm's all those years.
i saw the housing bubble burst coming and started shorting New Century Financial in October 2007. when that stock went from $37 to $23 i thought i'd made the trade of the century. it promptly went to zero and i said shit. i started piling on the shorts for Countrywide, Downey Savings and Loan, Lehman, Merrill, Bear Stearns, MS, WFC, everything you can think of way before the shit hit the fan. it was like shooting ducks in a barrel. and i still covered too soon. i made so much even before the October 2008 crash thats how early i was. if i'd only held onto them until march 2009.
all these problems i lived thru with day to day trading like i do now and it was an amazing experience. it made complete sense to own gold/silver with such severe problems going on. and it still may but Bitcoin really changed my mind. Bitcoin makes so much sense and will work so much better if it gets adopted as a world reserve currency. even miscreanity admits it will work better. we'll just have to see.
gold and silver are faltering for a reason. there is a 9 yr cycle i talk about to my subscribers and i've showed them the evidence for my bearishness. it doesn't look good to me. its especially dangerous b/c of its illiquidity. i hope i'm wrong for your sake b/c there is probably nothing so many bullion holders can do at this point if it does crash. you'll never be able to cash it in at your local coin dealers.
my gaud Man, you just can't let it go. we're talking about gold here.
its not like the thread title says "Gold: I smell a trap that's gonna slam shut right NOW!"
and why is it that guys like you and silverbox latch on to the posting date of the thread as some sort of starting point? i already admitted i was 9d early from the top. these are general direction calls for the longterm and i don't need to specify an exact timeframe from point a to point b.
as an investor you just want to get as close to a major corner as possible and ride a big trend in the opposite direction. that's what i've done and i'm sorry you're so pissed off about it. i guess i should take that as a compliment.
I was just seeking answers to satisfy my curiosity, those numbers have to come from somewhere, correct?
Another curious questions: For the "hundreds of thousands" (dollars, I assume) bullion you switched to BTCs last Summer/Fall, how could that be a good trade, considering the BTC price drop since then?
Last question (I promise): back in 2005/2006, why did you decide to buy PM bullion in the first place? Feel free to ignore me if you don't want to answer.
And that's where we disagree, so back to square one. 
no. we're not at square one. since we began this debate last August:
Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%
its actually worse than that. have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?
lets try this again:
Gold down. Bitcoin UP.
Assuming your "debate" start date is the day you started the "trap" thread: August 9, 2011:
Gold close on 8/9/2011: 1756.1, Today gold close: 1554.9, change: -11.46%
Silver close on 8/9/2011: 38.33, Today silver close: 27.65, change: -27.86%
(source: http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/daily_graphs.cgi)
Bitcoin close on 8/9/2011: 9.99, Today Bitcoin close: 5.18, change: -48.14%
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2011-08-09zeg2011-08-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2012-05-31zeg2012-05-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Here is my take, with an 18 month time frame:
Fiat down, Gold UP, Bitcoin UP & UP.
my gaud Man, you just can't let it go. we're talking about gold here.
its not like the thread title says "Gold: I smell a trap that's gonna slam shut right NOW!"
and why is it that guys like you and silverbox latch on to the posting date of the thread as some sort of starting point? i already admitted i was 9d early from the top. these are general direction calls for the longterm and i don't need to specify an exact timeframe from point a to point b.
as an investor you just want to get as close to a major corner as possible and ride a big trend in the opposite direction. that's what i've done and i'm sorry you're so pissed off about it. i guess i should take that as a compliment.
And that's where we disagree, so back to square one.
no. we're not at square one. since we began this debate last August:
Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%
its actually worse than that. have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?
lets try this again:
Gold down. Bitcoin UP.
Assuming your "debate" start date is the day you started the "trap" thread: August 9, 2011:
Gold close on 8/9/2011: 1756.1, Today gold close: 1554.9, change: -11.46%
Silver close on 8/9/2011: 38.33, Today silver close: 27.65, change: -27.86%
(source: http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/daily_graphs.cgi)
Bitcoin close on 8/9/2011: 9.99, Today Bitcoin close: 5.18, change: -48.14%
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2011-08-09zeg2011-08-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2012-05-31zeg2012-05-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Here is my take, with an 18 month time frame:
Fiat down, Gold UP, Bitcoin UP & UP.
And that's where we disagree, so back to square one.
no. we're not at square one. since we began this debate last August:
Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%
its actually worse than that. have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?
lets try this again:
Gold down. Bitcoin UP.
You can see the future dude. For real... the chips are all falling exactly as you said they would...
And that's where we disagree, so back to square one.
no. we're not at square one. since we began this debate last August:
Silver= -44%
Gold= -19%
Miners= -57%
its actually worse than that. have u looked at the gold/silver futures right now?
lets try this again:
Gold down. Bitcoin UP.
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