Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1488. (Read 2032274 times)

The Muppet Army shrinks by one.  Maybe it's time to implement a re-enlistment bonus?

somewhere in this thread cypher called for gold to hit 400 in the next two to three years  iirc , I don't feel like diggin it out.

can you say OOPS?

Too bad my subscription ran out... it was fun while it lastet. I want to thank you here for an enjoyable month of interesting and plentiful updates

Look at silver at $28

KABOOM and it's gone:



well almost  

thank gaud for you silverbox.  you're the only one on this thread that makes me happy! 

Except none of the subscription providers have a "muppet army".  In fact, when they all agree, price tends to move the other direction.  There are just as many sharks who subscribe as sheep.  The newsletters are merely indicators, and sometimes are contrarian when they are too one sided.

But good job judging that which you have no knowledge of.

Oh baby this just might be the day we've been waiting for!!

The herd lead into the slaughterhouse: Facebook European Premarket Bid - €58 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/facebook-european-premarket-bid-%E2%82%AC58

Nice try.  I've already made my prediction time commitment in my Newsletter.  Sorry.

how many years cypherdoc? Are you willing to put a maximum time? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

That way, this thread could be closed at some point in the future . "many months to years" is just too open-ended to ever call your "prediction" right or wrong.

Most brokers probably burn there books at least once in their careers.  If you've got a muppet army and are working in such a thin market as Bitcoin where an opportunity to swing it might pop up, why not?  Coordinate with Waveaddict and S#### and you could probably make a (veritable) killing.

1)  I'm saying the following:  Cypherdoc is claiming/predicting two general things, that 1) there will be an inverse correlation between Bitcoin and gold, specifically that Bitcoin will go up and gold will go down and that 2) this will demonstrated within a time frame of "many months to years."  However, since it has only been two months, there simply is not enough data available to validate his predictions to this point.  

So, as a hypothetical example, let's say Cyperdoc has correctly predicted the direction that the gold and/or Bitcoin markets would go every day with 75% accuracy for two months straight.  He could point and say, "Look!  I've been right 75% of the time, so it appears I know what I'm talking about, and thus my predictions for the future are likely valid and yadda yadda."  And, it is true that this would make most anyone (myself included) admire his predictive ability.  But, this should be viewed with caution because now he has introduced a new time-frame that does not correspond to his initial predictive time-frame, and the two cannot be reasonably compared.  I misspoke when I said "can't possibly assume...[a positive correlation]," but rather I should have said "can only assume a weak correlation."

Basically, the point boils down to something ridiculously simple that everyone already knows -- that we don't have data from the future.  Now, if Cypherdoc gave a specific time-frame for his prediction of 6-12 months (again, for example), then we'd have something to work with.  But "many months to years" covers one hell of a lot of ground.  If he has been correct 75% of the time for 2 months, then it would be reasonable to assume that his overarching prediction will be at least somewhat on target if the predictive window is to last for only 6-12 months.  But, again, "many months to years" covers a lot of ground.  If we expand this predictive window to 20 years, then being 75% correct for 2 months doesn't really mean much of anything.  This is why I still maintain his thread title is dubious even with the "many months to years" timeline because it removes perspective from the things he is currently saying.  Essentially, he's saying that this inverse correlation is going to manifest itself "sometime," but when and to what degree, nobody knows.

2-4)  OK

5)  Depends on which is more immediately profitable to him, important to him, etc....his subscription service or his investments.

Yes - it's already in progress.

Blinking takes about a tenth of a second, which is about 2.5 trillion times slower than it takes for graphite to phase transition from solid to plasma. The process for gold to be revalued isn't as temporally extreme relative to our perception, but it is still a generational event on the order of decades (a galactic blink); we just happen to be witnessing the crescendo of this cycle.


Yes, there is plenty of gold in shadow balances, but not under the direct auspices of governments themselves. Whether organisations, individuals or familial legacies, the giant owners of "old gold" do not allow control of their assets to be held by politicians. That would be too great a liability.  These power bases may pledge support, but they retain control.


GC² 

It's the difference between seeing a symptom and determining the cause. The gold melodrama is part of an even greater theme involving control (which is itself a paradox).


Right there - having skin in the game largely negates moral hazard.

I would be making use of cyph's subscription service if I were still doing anything with paper. There's been more than enough of a track record to prove solid results, and that's what matters. For me, it'd be like outsourcing my own trading. I've used other services in the past, and may eventually make use of Bitcoin trading services.

Anyhow, the only thing we really disagree on is physical precious metals.

1) Not sure what you mean.  Can you rephrase?
2-3) Nothing to add.
4) That's more my wording than his.  It has been rising for 14 days straight, the longest streak since 1985.  IMO, we will see more rising than falling over the next 8-12 months.  Apple also 'rocketed' over 5500% in the last decade, Bitcoin rocketed several thousand percent last year.  Apple is down 17% from its peak and Bitcoin is down 84% from its peak.  Even with it's counter-trend rally today gold is down 17% from it's peak.  What goes up must come down, especially when it is pumped up with QE.  Now that the free money is drying up, who's going to buy?
5) I would disagree with that.  If he were not a stakeholder he would pay far less attention.

I've never listened to 'financial professionals' and have never regretted it.  The only thing standing between 95% of day-trader types and homelessness is 'time' in my observation, and having been in the middle of the dot-com bubble I've certainly made some observations here.


(On a serious note...)

I've stated publicly that I've sunk 5 figures into Bitcoin and hold my position and am currently at about a 20% loss.  Most likely I'll be the first to say so if/when I adjust it since it is not my nature to make shit up for the purposes of influencing the market.  I personally doubt that doing this works very well, but that's only part of the reason.

I would be utterly delighted to see Bitcoin take off both because it would enrich me personally and because I think the general solution has a damn good chance of being a big positive for humanity.

I also have enough of a technical understanding of the Bitcoin implementation to have some serious questions about certain aspects of it.  Thus, even if I do want to see the solution take off, I also would feel uncomfortable pumping it as a primary means of wealth preservation.  It's a side-bet for me, and I earnestly feel that it should be the same for almost everyone else.

Parenthetically, you've never heard me tell anyone that they should be as overweight in PMs as I am.  This is both because I am not qualified to give financial advice and also I don't believe that my strategy is appropriate for most people.

(edit: s/bit/big/ in an important place.)

Aww, you'll miss out on the story of my dog!! lol

I still haven't finished it, lol.

i've had my subscription service for 47 mere days.  go back to the beginning of my subscription thread and go thru the examples of the calls i've made.  all were made way before the subscription service, ok?  it doesn't take subscribers to verify the accuracy of the predictions.

feel free to comb thru my posts to see if i've cherry picked or fudged those calls. i guarantee you that i didn't and would've been called out if i had.  how do i know this?  b/c there are literally hundreds of ppl who were following the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread and are following this one in detail.  go look at the number of views. AND when i take a position i don't vacillate like other analysts; everyone knows what i think and can judge from there.

the subscription service deals with my methodology and teaching it to readers. it forms the basis of what i recommend.  i know they've found it helpful.  i spend most of my efforts there, not here, so it might not be surprising if my analysis here seems incomplete.

1.)  Ok.  If his time frame is "many months to years," then we can't possibly assume that anything that has happened in the past 2 months since this thread's creation is positive correlated with his prediction.

2.)  Fair enough.  As I said, I only read a few pages of this thread.  I understand this makes for uninformed assumptions, but he killed all of my motivation to go back and read it all.  He shouldn't feel bad about this, though.  I'm cocky and stubborn myself so I understand where he's coming from.

3.)  Fair enough.  Time will tell.  I do genuinely hope that he is correct for his own sake and for his subscribers'.

4.)  Rocketing?  That's going overboard.  Rocketing since when?  Gold 'rocketed' 2% overnight.  It's also 'rocketed' ~800% in the last decade.  Besides, if he's speaking from a long-term perspective, that perspective would also indicate that the US dollar has been falling like a brick.  Rocketing in this case is from a short-term perspective.

5.)  True, it doesn't make him wrong.  But I would suggest that it is more likely to make him wrong than if he were not a stakeholder.

Another Score:  08/09/2011 -> 05/17/2012
          then          now       delta mult
BTC    10.00         5.09       + 0.51
Gold    1750         1574      + 0.91

I humbly bow to your greatness, oh wise and powerful one