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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 503. (Read 2032286 times)

legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
February 09, 2015, 02:04:21 AM

He is biased on this statement: "Therefore, Bitcoin is not likely to be upgraded in ways which make it easier to regulate because that would decrease the value of the coins. Bitcoin might be upgraded in ways that make it more anonymous because a more anonymous coin would likely be more valuable."

Some would argue that regulation would increase value of coins, and anonymity would decrease value of coins. If this happened, the state would actually try to crush Bitcoin, and institutional money would be rushing to get out.
Either way it needs regulation or the state can say we will impose harsh penalty to anyone accepting bitcoin blah blah.. Making it underground. With proper regulation incentives are there for politicians to get in now.. Buy before laws change and make money.. Its greed again and wont change. The other side is once regulated we play by their rules again and they may change just like that so we gave up annonymity for nothing...
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
February 09, 2015, 01:49:09 AM
The HSBC story is fantastic  Cheesy Shows once again double standard toward Bitcoins from regulators not even able to police traditional institutions

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/08/hsbc-files-expose-swiss-bank-clients-dodge-taxes-hide-millions
legendary
Activity: 1320
Merit: 1007
February 09, 2015, 01:29:36 AM

He is biased on this statement: "Therefore, Bitcoin is not likely to be upgraded in ways which make it easier to regulate because that would decrease the value of the coins. Bitcoin might be upgraded in ways that make it more anonymous because a more anonymous coin would likely be more valuable."

Some would argue that regulation would increase value of coins, and anonymity would decrease value of coins. If this happened, the state would actually try to crush Bitcoin, and institutional money would be rushing to get out.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
February 09, 2015, 01:06:16 AM

Quote
Coinbase, BitStamp, and Blockchain.info upgrade. These nodes provide a lot of the infrastructure for Bitcoin, so if they do not upgrade, Bitcoin New will be a lot less useful. However, these nodes are in it for profit, so they will tend to go where the money is. They cannot necessarily afford to wield the influence they might have at the risk of short-term losses.

He's totally wrong about that. All three of those are startup companies that exist and are funded in order to achieve a large future payoff, generally at the explicit cost of short term losses. They will do what they feel provides the best long term payoff. Avoiding short term losses is relatively to entirely unimportant to them.

That still may not be the choice of fork that he or you or I would prefer however.



right.  small start ups can also be investors.  

altho generally, i think he's right.  the bigger they get, the more they are beholden to other shorter term investors in the company, to payrolls, to fixed and variable expenses, and then to IPO's and being public.  

The recent Coinbase funding round was at a valuation of $400 million. There is likely at least a factor of 10 from that to where they want to be before cashing out. (Of course if things go poorly they may cash out lower or not at all.) The other companies on his list are probably valued lower.

They won't sacrifice, or even jeopardize, the longer term potential for a level of meaningful success that would make a difference to a VC portfolio to protect the tiny revenues they are getting now from transaction fees. (Again, unless they give up on the longer term potential and are looking to recover something.) Although they haven't disclosed numbers, I doubt the current transaction fees come close to supporting even the current valuation. In a sense there is nothing in way of current revenues to protect.

Long shot VC backing of companies like Coinbase is a sort of leveraged play on BTC itself. They can't really succeed without BTC going much higher than 4 billion USD total cap. So I think he's wrong in considering them distinct from investors. His whole entrepreneurs vs. investors thread makes this mistake.


+1


And more generally, I think a lot of people make a misjudgment in assuming that actors in the bitcoin ecosystem will behave with only very short-term focus. Tim Swanson (@ofnumbers) is particularly bad about taking these absurdly narrow views and spitting out blog posts full of "analysis". Unfortunately his analysis is often not particularly useful because his assumptions are broken.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
February 08, 2015, 11:32:28 PM
Im gonna give that to a coworker who is a conspiracy theorist yet pessimistic about bitcoin.. He always asks who controls bitcoin and never satsified as a fork can cause a large loss to his investment.. Thus labels it a ponzi scheme aimed at luring in small fish
legendary
Activity: 2002
Merit: 1040
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
February 08, 2015, 08:43:37 PM
If business leaders hope to maintain broad public support for business, they must acknowledge that the purpose of the corporation is not to enrich the few, but to benefit the many. Once America’s CEOs refocus on growing their companies rather than growing their share prices, shareholder value will take care of itself and all Americans will share in the benefits of a renewed era of economic growth.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/kill-stock-buyback-to-save-the-american-economy/385259/
Greed trumps all.. as this emotion is engrained we are not smart enough as a species to understand that we win as a team (something that adam smith taught us).. however with some structure (blockchain) we may be forced to see the light.. maybe satoshi was fate to teach us before our own demise... the last growth after the industrial revolution that averted disaster was the internet.. so to avert a full on depression we need the next wave of technology to carry us forward.. if its not the blockchain i dont know what it is..
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
February 08, 2015, 08:20:59 PM
If business leaders hope to maintain broad public support for business, they must acknowledge that the purpose of the corporation is not to enrich the few, but to benefit the many. Once America’s CEOs refocus on growing their companies rather than growing their share prices, shareholder value will take care of itself and all Americans will share in the benefits of a renewed era of economic growth.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/kill-stock-buyback-to-save-the-american-economy/385259/
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
February 08, 2015, 08:10:20 PM


While this still represents a small quantity of coins I think it is important bc I believe that these are become very low velocity coins -- that is buyer would obly pay the premium and the inconvenience of face2face if he/she is holding.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 08, 2015, 07:10:23 PM

Quote
Coinbase, BitStamp, and Blockchain.info upgrade. These nodes provide a lot of the infrastructure for Bitcoin, so if they do not upgrade, Bitcoin New will be a lot less useful. However, these nodes are in it for profit, so they will tend to go where the money is. They cannot necessarily afford to wield the influence they might have at the risk of short-term losses.

He's totally wrong about that. All three of those are startup companies that exist and are funded in order to achieve a large future payoff, generally at the explicit cost of short term losses. They will do what they feel provides the best long term payoff. Avoiding short term losses is relatively to entirely unimportant to them.

That still may not be the choice of fork that he or you or I would prefer however.



right.  small start ups can also be investors. 

altho generally, i think he's right.  the bigger they get, the more they are beholden to other shorter term investors in the company, to payrolls, to fixed and variable expenses, and then to IPO's and being public. 

The recent Coinbase funding round was at a valuation of $400 million. There is likely at least a factor of 10 from that to where they want to be before cashing out. (Of course if things go poorly they may cash out lower or not at all.) The other companies on his list are probably valued lower.

They won't sacrifice, or even jeopardize, the longer term potential for a level of meaningful success that would make a difference to a VC portfolio to protect the tiny revenues they are getting now from transaction fees. (Again, unless they give up on the longer term potential and are looking to recover something.) Although they haven't disclosed numbers, I doubt the current transaction fees come close to supporting even the current valuation. In a sense there is nothing in way of current revenues to protect.

Long shot VC backing of companies like Coinbase is a sort of leveraged play on BTC itself. They can't really succeed without BTC going much higher than 4 billion USD total cap. So I think he's wrong in considering them distinct from investors. His whole entrepreneurs vs. investors thread makes this mistake.
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
February 08, 2015, 06:52:07 PM
Anyone in greece with money should be loading up on physical euro gold silver bitcoins.  Bitcoins because they are easily hidden.  In today's world without bank secrecy presumably greek govt could insist that foreign banks divulge its citizens holdings.  Tax revenue is down; looks like ppl are deferring debt payments in favor of holding.

One of the only things that Syriza & EC agree on is that tax evasion by wealthy Greeks needs to be addressed. Not sure if these evaders (all but stated as being he oligarks of greek society) would use bitcoin to 'transfer' their wealth out of traditional areas, but they could. For the regular citizens, its could be a hedge, ironically, against volatility / uncertainty.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
February 08, 2015, 06:21:20 PM

Quote
Coinbase, BitStamp, and Blockchain.info upgrade. These nodes provide a lot of the infrastructure for Bitcoin, so if they do not upgrade, Bitcoin New will be a lot less useful. However, these nodes are in it for profit, so they will tend to go where the money is. They cannot necessarily afford to wield the influence they might have at the risk of short-term losses.

He's totally wrong about that. All three of those are startup companies that exist and are funded in order to achieve a large future payoff, generally at the explicit cost of short term losses. They will do what they feel provides the best long term payoff. Avoiding short term losses is relatively to entirely unimportant to them.

That still may not be the choice of fork that he or you or I would prefer however.



right.  small start ups can also be investors. 

altho generally, i think he's right.  the bigger they get, the more they are beholden to other shorter term investors in the company, to payrolls, to fixed and variable expenses, and then to IPO's and being public. 

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
February 08, 2015, 05:56:57 PM

If I didn't know better,  I'd think he was talking about SC's.

He made a technical error in the article; a low hashrate of a fork wouldn't extend the time between blocks. It only would make them less secure.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 08, 2015, 05:45:52 PM

Quote
Coinbase, BitStamp, and Blockchain.info upgrade. These nodes provide a lot of the infrastructure for Bitcoin, so if they do not upgrade, Bitcoin New will be a lot less useful. However, these nodes are in it for profit, so they will tend to go where the money is. They cannot necessarily afford to wield the influence they might have at the risk of short-term losses.

He's totally wrong about that. All three of those are startup companies that exist and are funded in order to achieve a large future payoff, generally at the explicit cost of short term losses. They will do what they feel provides the best long term payoff. Avoiding short term losses is relatively to entirely unimportant to them.

That still may not be the choice of fork that he or you or I would prefer however.

legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 507
February 08, 2015, 05:21:40 PM
someone can insert a fraudulent doc stating your home reverts to them in 5 yrs w/o your knowledge.  no one reads all these docs.  this gets hashed and inserted to BC thus memorializing that fact.
Both a fraudulent and honest document could exist in the blockchain and the fact that both are in blockchain proves without a doubt that the dishonest party is not making up lies now but in the past as well.

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
February 08, 2015, 03:35:49 PM
Cyprus did not cause the April 2013 rally. I don't know why everyone thinks that... Also, Greece isn't going to impact bitcoins price.

correct. I keep pointing it out myself, but people don't listen to reason a lot these days.

I don't know why everyone thinks that...

I do: people like a good simple story.There's a part of the brain that is responsible for making sense of everything (after the fact). It's a lazy bastard.

I'm beginning to suspect human history looks a lot different from what is depicted in history books. Maybe we should start putting stuff into blockchains (or _the_ blockchain) so it can't be changed later... is that what factom is doing, btw?


yes factom is hashing for proof of existence
using the blockchain

doesn't the initial insertion/verification of the factom data into the blockchain introduce a centralized, potentially corruptible, weak point in the system?




regarding the centralized, potentially corruptible, weak point in the system that inserting data into the blockchain presents- this is potentially true if we were to take raw data - however, Factom only inserts a hash into the blockchain, not the data itself.


but the raw data from which the hash is derived can contain corruptible data.

as an example; the mountains of mortgage loan docs.  someone can insert a fraudulent doc stating your home reverts to them in 5 yrs w/o your knowledge.  no one reads all these docs.  this gets hashed and inserted to BC thus memorializing that fact.


Yes, the blockchain "proof" just proves that some statement existed at the time the transaction including that statement's digest appears in a block. So people can certainly insert whatever they want. If someone wants to claim they predicted the winner of the Superbowl in 2020, they could create a separate transaction for every team, stating that that team won, and then when 2020 rolls around, just point to the one that worked. Classic proof problem.

Also, Blockchain proof isn't storage. I think some people are misunderstanding this at the moment. If you give a bunch of documents to Factom and they hash them into the blockchain, and then they lose the documents and you don't have a copy, the digest in the blockchain is completely useless since you have no document to verify the digest against.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
February 08, 2015, 03:06:22 PM
Cyprus did not cause the April 2013 rally. I don't know why everyone thinks that... Also, Greece isn't going to impact bitcoins price.

correct. I keep pointing it out myself, but people don't listen to reason a lot these days.

I don't know why everyone thinks that...

I do: people like a good simple story.There's a part of the brain that is responsible for making sense of everything (after the fact). It's a lazy bastard.

I'm beginning to suspect human history looks a lot different from what is depicted in history books. Maybe we should start putting stuff into blockchains (or _the_ blockchain) so it can't be changed later... is that what factom is doing, btw?


yes factom is hashing for proof of existence
using the blockchain

doesn't the initial insertion/verification of the factom data into the blockchain introduce a centralized, potentially corruptible, weak point in the system?




regarding the centralized, potentially corruptible, weak point in the system that inserting data into the blockchain presents- this is potentially true if we were to take raw data - however, Factom only inserts a hash into the blockchain, not the data itself.


but the raw data from which the hash is derived can contain corruptible data.

as an example; the mountains of mortgage loan docs.  someone can insert a fraudulent doc stating your home reverts to them in 5 yrs w/o your knowledge.  no one reads all these docs.  this gets hashed and inserted to BC thus memorializing that fact.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
February 08, 2015, 03:06:03 PM
What are the odds that this greek situation would start a bitcoin rally?

   Kind of like Cyprus.  If the timing is coincidental to a major rally, who's to say what comes first?  Either will boost the other, I think.  BTC gets major press as the EUR tanks, or EUR tanks as BTC takes off.  2015 is going to be a boiling year of change, any way you look at it.  

Cyprus did not cause the April 2013 rally. I don't know why everyone thinks that... Also, Greece isn't going to impact bitcoins price.

Just noting that the timing of the PEAK was coincidental, and could build toward a similar outcome again.   Anyone holding euros (IMO) aught to be gambling them soon on whatever they can, in Greece or anywhere else.  Zero is coming for you...
full member
Activity: 152
Merit: 100
February 08, 2015, 03:00:16 PM
Cyprus did not cause the April 2013 rally. I don't know why everyone thinks that... Also, Greece isn't going to impact bitcoins price.

correct. I keep pointing it out myself, but people don't listen to reason a lot these days.

I don't know why everyone thinks that...

I do: people like a good simple story.There's a part of the brain that is responsible for making sense of everything (after the fact). It's a lazy bastard.

I'm beginning to suspect human history looks a lot different from what is depicted in history books. Maybe we should start putting stuff into blockchains (or _the_ blockchain) so it can't be changed later... is that what factom is doing, btw?


yes factom is hashing for proof of existence
using the blockchain

doesn't the initial insertion/verification of the factom data into the blockchain introduce a centralized, potentially corruptible, weak point in the system?




regarding the centralized, potentially corruptible, weak point in the system that inserting data into the blockchain presents- this is potentially true if we were to take raw data - however, Factom only inserts a hash into the blockchain, not the data itself.
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