Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 511. (Read 2032289 times)

i have gladly paid my taxes

if anything, the massive attempts of clowns like traderCJ, tvbcof, and the Not* brother trolls to discredit me tells me we are still very early on in the game.  they are how you tell we are NOT in a bubble.  the bearish sentiment has become overconfident.  that combined with over a year long pullback that can't take us consistently below 200 is a very good sign for Bitcoin bulls.  this down half of this latest cycle is way overextended in duration and most likely has bottomed.  the guys who got in early like me are still way, way UP.  you'll have to take it down into single digits to make me hurt.  good luck.  i'm reminded of the NASDAQ crash down into 2002.  what came after that has been glorious.

i'm looking forward to pouring in more fiat tomorrow when my funds arrive at the exchange.

the most important thing during an accumulation is to not get overextended in case of a prolonged downturn, like we've had over the last year.

i've consistently said i have no debt, have real estate, and have a self owned highly profitable business that allows me the diversification and peace of mind to not get shaken out.  this bull mkt is vicious and has already shaken off most of its original bulls including guys like tvbcof (to whatever degree he will admit).

Smoothie should be along shortly to demand notarized copies of all your financial statements.

...
furthermore, buying Bitcoin starting @ $1.60 has also been extremely profitable, on paper.  ...

i've been telling ppl for quite some time now that i've been selling my bullion for btc for several months now.  and its true, i've liquidated lots of the stuff since April that i first bought in 2005-2007.  i'm an ardent suporter of btc for the longest time.  i've also been warning ppl about divergences in the PM market i've been exploiting via shorts such as the divergence in silver, miners, and the gold price.  i understand what gold is all about and i love the stuff but when btc came along my allegiance switched.

the basis of my thinking has been and always will be that its all about the USD.  the Fed controls the issuance of the USD and its its only franchise.  i don't think they want to relinquish that control of the worlds reserve currency.  the USD is also how most billionaires wealth is stored in this country.  most of the debt in the world is denominated in USD (60%).  there was a great article someone posted about how the bankers have been complaining to Ben that they're being hurt by the weak USD.  Duh.

let me list the warnings i see:

1. silver has broken down badly from $50. it continues to this am.
2. silver stocks are in an obvious decline and got hit yesterday hard.
3. gold stocks are no better.  they usually lead.
4. we're at 11 yrs of the bull.  some ppl say theres an extended 9 yr cycle going on.
5. asset classes don't all break down simultaneously.  it took gold and miners several months to break down after the Dow in 2007 so i don't expect them to have followed the Dow down since May 2011.
6. gold is trying to or has, depending on how you look at it, entered a parabola.  do you really want to buy a parabola now if we're entering a major deflationary phase when cash is King?
7. its debatable how widespread the evangelism about gold has spread but everywhere i turn, on street corner stores, tv ads, and my secretary everyone's buying gold.

ok, now for the tinfoil hat stuff.  stop right here if you want to stick with the technical trading stuff above.  over many years of trading i've learned to think like a criminal and this is what i see happening.

1. GS and JPM have huge short positions in the metals.  do you think they will let them double, triple from here even if they represent hedges?  i think thats the last thing they want to see.
2. gold has acted very strange the last coupla weeks to me ramping in the face of a severe selloff in the Dow and the clear threat of deflation.
3. altho GS & JPM probably never saw the bull in PM's they aren't stupid and know how to handle them.  so how do you handle a losing situation?  Buy into it. Profit as well.  create a huge parabola. Build up an even greater short position. Get Ben to squelch liquidity. Then sell it off at the top when everyone's in and short the crap out of it. this is what happened in silver.
4. why is btc rallying all of a sudden?  could it be that its exerting itself in the economic scene based on the virtues of what we all know?  it also could be that Wall St is rotating out of stocks and soon pm's into btc.
5. when would the trap go off?  i think todays FOMC meeting with lack of any further QE would be the perfect timing for a gold selloff.

so guys, just give me a few hours to see if my theory proves correct.  if it doesn't work by all means buy the parabola.  personally i'm going to give it a few days from today to let it work but you can all call me a tinfoiler if gold doesn't start going down after the announcement.

Disclosure:  i do have a huge short position in bullion in place.

A "paper loss" is a loss nonetheless.  When the bank estimates your net worth in order to issue a business loan, they don't care about your expectations of future value.  All that matters is the price today, not some theoretical number a decade from now.  If you've got a different definition of loss, then fine, we will agree to disagree.

But none of that is due to cypherdoc's advice. The USD will be worth zero before Bitcoin.

I would feel worse about dumping all my PM's and going all in to Bitcoin even if I had done so.  Even though it would have made me a ton of money it would have been an irresponsible gamble in my situation.  I don't pat myself on the back as having some special skill if I roll snake-eyes, land on community chest, and collect a 'bank error in my favor'.  That's just luck.  There were a bunch of things that could easily have gone haywire with Bitcoin over the last 4 years and we got very lucky on them.  The emergency hard-fork was one of these.

Losses in terms of USD, absolutely.

cypherdoc has not suggested anyone to buy more than they can hold long term. Therefore, there have been no resultant losses over the past year.

Cypher, you've been nothing but bullish over the course of the entire thread's life.  In fact, you admitted that this is a place for you to troll to bears.  When it comes to PMs, I never said buy (to my recollection).  I'm not a salesman, unlike you.  I called you out on being wrong on gold vs Bitcoin for an entire year.  Hell, more than a year.  And although you probably do not recall, what I said about PMs was my shift to them from Bitcoin worked in my favor.  Furthermore, I have stated many times that gold and Bitcoin solve different problems.  Comparing the two from a functional standpoint doesn't make sense.  You, on the other hand, would rather preach the ultimate dominance of Bitcoin from your pulpit.  And like I said, this I'm sure has resulted in losses from those hapless people who have taken your advice over the past year.  It is your unmitigated arrogance that I take exception to.

except i haven't been saying buy for the entire year.

shame on you for your buy recommendations on gold and silver.  they've performed miserably since 2011 and have been flat at best for the last year.

you must be frustrated.

except i haven't been saying buy for the entire year.

shame on you for your buy recommendations on gold and silver.  they've performed miserably since 2011 and have been flat at best for the last year.

you must be frustrated.

Well hopefully people haven't been taking your advice for the past year.  Unfortunately, I'm sure some did, and they have paid dearly.  Shame on you.

Hey tvbcof, we're going back up.

this pretty much sums it up.

except i believe tvbcof misrepresents his "calls" and is a legend in his own mind.  i don't remember him giving any "buy" or "sell" advice around here ever.