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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 841. (Read 2032266 times)

legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
October 23, 2014, 05:46:18 PM
i'm missing something here.

why can't the scBTC develop an independent value in USD on their own on an exchange?  and if that value starts going up relative to the BTC value b/c the SC turns out to be better functionally, then why wouldn't every BTC owner be forced to transfer their BTC over to scBTC along with a migration of direct mining hashpower to the SC?  if the SC is better, the difference in value btwn BTC and scBTC can't be arbitraged away.

the end result being a destroyed Bitcoin and a "new" Sidechain dominance.

Because there is a MATH no 3D party -> how to convert(lock) BTC to scBTC

Rule #1
You can anytime convert BTC to scBTC using this conversion function (if btc protocol is not broken)

repeat(
 1. Convert BTC -> scBTC
 2. You sell scBTC for $ 
 3. buy more BTC at Bitstamp
)

=> scBTC has only value of BTC  (SideChain has value based on BTC)

Rule #2
There is conversion function (MATH) how to convert scBTC to BTC (unlock your/anybody previously locked coins ... if SideChain is not broken => you cannot unlock more, than was locked)
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
October 23, 2014, 05:40:56 PM
Yes, the conversion ratio AFAIK has to be algorithmically defined.

"Algorithmically defined" doesn't really mean anything. The redemption price could be floating based on the BTC balance for the side chain (for example a minimum conversion price "algorithm" of 1/balance would ensure that the balance never ran out).

Side chains aren't really that different from a decentralized exchange (in fact the atomic swap concept is exactly cross chain trading) except that in the original conception the expectation is for a fixed 1:1 exchange rate. I don't see anything that requires that though.

I think it may well turn out that side chains are just a reinvention of altcoins.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 23, 2014, 05:38:16 PM
i'm missing something here.

why can't the scBTC develop an independent value in USD on their own on an exchange?  and if that value starts going up relative to the BTC value b/c the SC turns out to be better functionally, then why wouldn't every BTC owner be forced to transfer their BTC over to scBTC along with a migration of direct mining hashpower to the SC?  if the SC is better, the difference in value btwn BTC and scBTC can't be arbitraged away.

the end result being a destroyed Bitcoin and a "new" Sidechain dominance.

Why "forced" to transfer?

Nobody is forced.  But if BTC owners could sell their BTC for $400 (say) and scBTC for $425, then arbitragers would naturally buy BTC, convert it to scBTC and sell it, making $25 (or the opposite).  So the price will never diverge significantly.  



forced b/c the SC has developed a better functionality that the market prefers.

the arbitrage works in theory except for this confirmation and contest period of waiting.  that delay of a day or 2 could have unpredictable effects on pricing.  maximal slippage.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
October 23, 2014, 05:37:43 PM
As scarcity increases, so does the price.... Mtgox was an exchange... that has nothing to do with a protocol and its security. You should rethink a bit of what you just said here.

I agree scarcity drives price when demand exists. It is why I speculatively hold bitcoin right now. What will drive the demand for bitcoin if everyone moves to a bitcoin 2.0 chain?

We arent talking about 2.0 chains (like ethereum) we are talking about sidechains. They exist on the bitcoin blockchain.

By 'bitcoin 2.0 chain' I simply mean't a sidechain which was superior to bitcoin.

This will be my last post tonight as I don't want to spam the thread. But my point was simply that if a bitcoin sidechain becomes popular, value may migrate from the bitcoin chain to side chain. If 'there can be only one' then a very significant number of coins on the bitcoin chain may become locked resulting in actual use of bitcoin being very limited, with global transactions occuring on the side chain instead.

I cannot see in that situation that simple scarcity alone will maintain a high price, simply because demand is clearly for the side chain usurper, not for bitcoin anymore.

Anyway, good night all. Thanks for the interesting thoughts guys.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
October 23, 2014, 05:34:39 PM
i'm missing something here.

why can't the scBTC develop an independent value in USD on their own on an exchange?  and if that value starts going up relative to the BTC value b/c the SC turns out to be better functionally, then why wouldn't every BTC owner be forced to transfer their BTC over to scBTC along with a migration of direct mining hashpower to the SC?  if the SC is better, the difference in value btwn BTC and scBTC can't be arbitraged away.

the end result being a destroyed Bitcoin and a "new" Sidechain dominance.

Why "forced" to transfer?

Nobody is forced.  But if BTC owners could sell their BTC for $400 (say) and scBTC for $425, then arbitragers would naturally buy BTC, convert it to scBTC and sell it, making $25 (or the opposite).  So the price will never diverge significantly.  


There should always be an scBTC discount based upon the market-determined probability that the SC will crash and burn.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
October 23, 2014, 05:32:04 PM
i'm missing something here.

why can't the scBTC develop an independent value in USD on their own on an exchange?  and if that value starts going up relative to the BTC value b/c the SC turns out to be better functionally, then why wouldn't every BTC owner be forced to transfer their BTC over to scBTC along with a migration of direct mining hashpower to the SC?  if the SC is better, the difference in value btwn BTC and scBTC can't be arbitraged away.

the end result being a destroyed Bitcoin and a "new" Sidechain dominance.

Why "forced" to transfer?

Nobody is forced.  But if BTC owners could sell their BTC for $400 (say) and scBTC for $425, then arbitragers would naturally buy BTC, convert it to scBTC and sell it, making $25 (or the opposite).  So the price will never diverge significantly. 

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
October 23, 2014, 05:28:52 PM
I'm sure 99% SCs will use 1:1 conversion rate and no new SCBTC will be generated ... you will still have your bitcoins, but few will be locked in "fast transfer" sidechain  ... you will have some locked in "exchage" sidechain ... and some in your private business sidechains (not public sidechains)

We can give ourselves 50% of the ether initially and let the next 50% come from locked coins. A pre side mine if you like. As soon as a decent number of coins are locked into our chain we can just cash out.

You certainly could.  You could unlock (get on the bitcoin chain) exactly as many BTC as were locked regardless of how many ether you created.  So you could leave a bunch of bagholders on the sidechain.

How is this any different from Mt Gox, Moolah, altcoin pump and dump, etc?

Sidechains don't magically make people honest.


But one additional point: the "bagholders" on the sidechain now have coins whose value would float relative to bitcoin (there is no backing BTC).  So what they are left with is better than Gox or Moolah -- they are left with a functioning altcoin that presumably has some utility to them or they would never have moved BTC there in the first place.  A similar result could happen if someone 51%ed the chain and unlocked the backing BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 23, 2014, 05:28:24 PM
i'm missing something here.

why can't the scBTC develop an independent value in USD on their own on an exchange?  and if that value starts going up relative to the BTC value b/c the SC turns out to be better functionally, then why wouldn't every BTC owner be forced to transfer their BTC over to scBTC along with a migration of direct mining hashpower to the SC?  if the SC is better, the difference in value btwn BTC and scBTC can't be arbitraged away.

the end result being a destroyed Bitcoin and a "new" Sidechain dominance.
hero member
Activity: 622
Merit: 500
October 23, 2014, 05:27:10 PM
how can you assure that they won't?  simply b/c they haven't?  that's naive.

Because it's open source
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
October 23, 2014, 05:22:00 PM
As scarcity increases, so does the price.... Mtgox was an exchange... that has nothing to do with a protocol and its security. You should rethink a bit of what you just said here.

I agree scarcity drives price when demand exists. It is why I speculatively hold bitcoin right now. What will drive the demand for bitcoin if everyone moves to a bitcoin 2.0 chain?

We arent talking about 2.0 chains (like ethereum) we are talking about sidechains. They exist on the bitcoin blockchain.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
October 23, 2014, 05:21:19 PM
That's right.  To state it clearly, there will be an arbitrage opportunity.  Buy BTC, transfer into SC, sell SCBTC, buy BTC.  So the price of bitcoin will be lifted with the added value sidechains bring.  In this sense inca, the child chain can never "destroy" Bitcoin even if it ends up carrying 99.9% of the transactions.

Markets and their capitalizations are a funny thing. They are illusory. We talk about bitcoin's current cap as being the price of a single coin multiplied by all the coins in existence. But the reality is far from that as the price is manipulated from, say, 1166 to 350 by a fraction of a few % of the coins in existence, or relatively modest amounts of fiat currency (millions to tens of millions of dollars only) on the way up.

This concept of a 'two way peg' between bitcoin blockchain and side chain is really an exchange. The terms of how many SCBTC can be acquired/released by locking/unlocking actual BTC are flexible and could float, for example based upon fiat exchange value of SCBTC or BTC. If SCBTC use becomes prevalent then it is possible that as the value of BTC falls, SCBTC rises, until BTC is not a store of value.

What you say (emboldened) is probably accurate. But what we care about is bitcoin maintaining value, as it's algorithmic scarcity was designed to do. That is the reason we hold it!

I'm sure 99% SCs will use 1:1 conversion rate and no new SCBTC will be generated ... you will still have your bitcoins, but few will be locked in "fast transfer" sidechain  ... you will have some locked in "exchage" sidechain ... and some in your private business sidechains (not public sidechains)

Yes, the conversion ratio AFAIK has to be algorithmically defined.  So even if its not 1:1 that fact is irrelevant.   If its 1:10 then its 10:1 to go back.  

Inca, the number of BTC that are put on the sidechain is irrelevant.  As long as there is a single Satoshi left "unlocked" on the bitcoin chain, that satoshi can be transferred into the sidechain for SCBTC.  So that Satoshi is worth its value in SCBTC.  As long as SCBTC has value, BTC would be a store of that value.

You're practically arguing against yourself here.  If some awesomely functional chain existed that had the potential to destroy bitcoin's value, would you prefer it to be an altcoin where none of your BTC transfers or would you prefer that it be a sidechain?  If the functionality was really that compelling you can be sure that it would eventually out-compete Bitcoin -- it just may take a few years longer as an altcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
October 23, 2014, 05:19:34 PM
I'm sure 99% SCs will use 1:1 conversion rate and no new SCBTC will be generated ... you will still have your bitcoins, but few will be locked in "fast transfer" sidechain  ... you will have some locked in "exchage" sidechain ... and some in your private business sidechains (not public sidechains)

You may be right. I was just thinking through various possibilities that side chains presents, such as whether they pose a risk to bitcoin, which I still think they may do.

Once this is enabled any side chain can be implemented without permission, of any kind whatsoever. Is it a bit naive perhaps to think that only a chain composed of locked bitcoins can exist?

Why don't we clone ethereum or counter party and simply run it centralised as a fast transfer side chain off bitcoin? We can give ourselves 50% of the ether initially and let the next 50% come from locked coins. A pre side mine if you like. As soon as a decent number of coins are locked into our chain we can just cash out. Or simply vary the number of SCBTC given per locked BTC so the first adopters get more of the pie.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
October 23, 2014, 05:14:51 PM
I can imagine "Banks will create their own SideChain"

 - only authorized party will be able (one of bank) to create transactions in their BankSideChain (it will run SC on their VPN  read-only-mode, you can look at chain, but you cannot ceate transaction).
 - you will be able to exchange their tokes(BANK_Token) for fiat (if you go to bank)
 - and you will be able to buy this tokens on decentralized exchange (exchange bitcoins for ExchangeBTC and then ExchangeBTC to BANK_Token)

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 23, 2014, 05:13:58 PM
What's ridiculous is that large holders expect these people to work for free -- AND that there are so few core developers.

i don't.  but spread their employment around if possible.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 23, 2014, 05:07:50 PM

look, i don't know how old you are, but what we're talking about here is A LOT of money.  the whole ethos of Bitcoin is as a trustless currency.  that currency depends on it's source code.  any changes to that code can change the economic assumptions and those correctly positioned can make LOTS.  to have core devs under the employment of a for-profit company is ridiculous.  it doesn't make any difference that they've behaved up to this point.  look what happened in 2008 in the GFC.  tremendous amounts of trust were lost in were supposed to be institutions to protect our form of capitalism.  didn't work out when the shit hit the fan did it?  are you willing to risk the entire Bitcoin system to have 5 devs who commit to the Bitcoin source while employed by Austin Hill, a hedge fund guy?

how is it ridiculous if the for-profit company in question works to IMPROVE the Bitcoin technology and has EVERY incentive to do so in a legitimate community approved way?

there is the potential to implement things that will benefit the company.  why can't you see this?  we should avoid if at all possible compromising situations.  5 devs under one roof is not the answer, imo.  if they were split up individually, then fine.
Quote
comparison to 2008 is asinine. Bitcoin development is an open source process.

I repeat, these 5 devs have every incentive to work in a transparent and community focused manner. You are suggesting they will go rogue and commit damaging code to the Bitcoin main core and that the community, the miners, and everyone running a node will play along? This is tinfoil hat status AFAIC.

how can you assure that they won't?  simply b/c they haven't?  that's naive.
Quote
Attacking Austin Hill personally just because you dislike the guy isn't helping your cause either? I know some people who, contrary to you, have worked with Austin personally and can certainly vouch for him. It appears a great deal of industry people do so as well so right now, it seems to me you're alone in your corner, with Peter Todd maybe, trying to pin bad intentions to a person with nothing but words to back up your claims.

you're putting words in my mouth.  i never said i don't like Hill. 

the fact that Hill and Back did miss early adoption of Bitcoin needs to be considered.  they probably don't have much in the way of BTC.  this could change all that for them so i don't blame them for taking this shot if they can get ppl like you to buy in.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
October 23, 2014, 04:56:13 PM
That's right.  To state it clearly, there will be an arbitrage opportunity.  Buy BTC, transfer into SC, sell SCBTC, buy BTC.  So the price of bitcoin will be lifted with the added value sidechains bring.  In this sense inca, the child chain can never "destroy" Bitcoin even if it ends up carrying 99.9% of the transactions.

Markets and their capitalizations are a funny thing. They are illusory. We talk about bitcoin's current cap as being the price of a single coin multiplied by all the coins in existence. But the reality is far from that as the price is manipulated from, say, 1166 to 350 by a fraction of a few % of the coins in existence, or relatively modest amounts of fiat currency (millions to tens of millions of dollars only) on the way up.

This concept of a 'two way peg' between bitcoin blockchain and side chain is really an exchange. The terms of how many SCBTC can be acquired/released by locking/unlocking actual BTC are flexible and could float, for example based upon fiat exchange value of SCBTC or BTC. If SCBTC use becomes prevalent then it is possible that as the value of BTC falls, SCBTC rises, until BTC is not a store of value.

What you say (emboldened) is probably accurate. But what we care about is bitcoin maintaining value, as it's algorithmic scarcity was designed to do. That is the reason we hold it!

I'm sure 99% SCs will use 1:1 conversion rate and no new SCBTC will be generated ... you will still have your bitcoins, but few will be locked in "fast transfer" sidechain  ... you will have some locked in "exchage" sidechain ... and some in your private business sidechains (not public sidechains)
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
October 23, 2014, 04:53:14 PM
As scarcity increases, so does the price.... Mtgox was an exchange... that has nothing to do with a protocol and its security. You should rethink a bit of what you just said here.

I agree scarcity drives price when demand exists. It is why I speculatively hold bitcoin right now. What will drive the demand for bitcoin if everyone moves to a bitcoin 2.0 chain?
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1004
October 23, 2014, 04:52:16 PM
Worst case, some highly functional altcoin takes over and BTC's value dwindles to 0.

BTC's network value is almost too large to fail at this point.  There is so much investment in BTC that if it fails, all crypto will fail with it.  What I would like to see from Sidechains is the ability to 2-way peg current alts to block chain.  I think Blockstream should employ someone who's sole purpose is to help Alt's peg to BTC via Sidechain.  Imagine having the functionality of Alt's tied to BTC blockchain.  Anyway, I'm very excited about Sidechains.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
October 23, 2014, 04:38:41 PM
I don't doubt that side chains offer some exciting possibilities. But I am still not sure this is the right thing for bitcoin. Perhaps this if implemented into bitcoin core it will herald the end of the alt's in the future and a proliferation of side chains offering discrete services, all fully or partially backed by bitcoin.

I am not against the idea overall. But these new chains are really just alt coins initially backed to some degree by bitcoin. Perhaps that is the leverage the bitcoin 2.0 coins need to succeed in correcting some of the (perceived or real) deficiencies in bitcoin right now. Perhaps we need a static reliable bitcoin blockchain to act as a store of value, in essence like a digital gold reservoir which backs future alt digital currencies. However I suspect this is likely to be wishful thinking. I say alt currencies because these alt chains will not run on the bitcoin chain or protocol, but will simply be linked to it by this 'two way peg' system. If the last five years has shown anything, it is that 'there can be only one' is true really with bitcoin market cap being gigantic and all the rest of the alts being a tiny afterthought.

With each alt side chain presumably there will be an IPO type event where a portion of btc coins go into a black hole of being 'locked'. This will dwindle available supply of btc and instead of being sold off on exchange (ethereum) and depressing the price could actually support it. If lots of popular side chains exist the actual use of bitcoin could become reduced or even minimal. What will keep bitcoin from losing it's value? Nothing I suspect.

What happens if one of these side chain alts becomes very successful (for example is supported by the banking system) and begins to draw a large number of bitcoins in circulation into lockdown. Will bitcoin value suddenly evaporate as all the coins sublime into the new chain in a mad rush? One can imagine some amazing pump and dump opportunities for clever side chain developers to acquire an awful lot of bitcoins through this 'two way peg' mechanism. (Early adopters again wahey!) Or to actually kill bitcoin with if a superior chain emerges.

What happens when a side chain is insecure and is 51%'d if decentralised or is simply hacked if centralised. It isn't hard to imagine a massive gox style disaster with hundreds of thousands of coins getting stolen or lost?

Interesting times.



As scarcity increases, so does the price.... Mtgox was an exchange... that has nothing to do with a protocol and its security. You should rethink a bit of what you just said here.



legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
October 23, 2014, 04:36:32 PM
That's right.  To state it clearly, there will be an arbitrage opportunity.  Buy BTC, transfer into SC, sell SCBTC, buy BTC.  So the price of bitcoin will be lifted with the added value sidechains bring.  In this sense inca, the child chain can never "destroy" Bitcoin even if it ends up carrying 99.9% of the transactions.

Markets and their capitalizations are a funny thing. They are illusory. We talk about bitcoin's current cap as being the price of a single coin multiplied by all the coins in existence. But the reality is far from that as the price is manipulated from, say, 1166 to 350 by a fraction of a few % of the coins in existence, or relatively modest amounts of fiat currency (millions to tens of millions of dollars only) on the way up.

This concept of a 'two way peg' between bitcoin blockchain and side chain is really an exchange. The terms of how many SCBTC can be acquired/released by locking/unlocking actual BTC are flexible and could float, for example based upon fiat exchange value of SCBTC or BTC. If SCBTC use becomes prevalent then it is possible that as the value of BTC falls, SCBTC rises, until BTC is not a store of value.

What you say (emboldened) is probably accurate. But what we care about is bitcoin maintaining value, as it's algorithmic scarcity was designed to do. That is the reason we hold it!
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