Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 916.

Peter R

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The elephant in the room: consumers have almost no incentive to use bitcoin.
The common talking points are:
Low fees - The consumers pay no fees while using a credit card. They actually get rewards points back.
Privacy - As evidenced by a recent post, bitcoin offers little privacy out of the box. You need to go through hoops to achieve privacy. People who care enough to go through these hoops have better alternatives (like cash!), which are more foolproof.
Being your own bank - Few people want to take the risks associated with being a bank. It is more of a headache than a plus.
No consumer protection - No need to elaborate.
Distrust of the monetary policy - The volatility of bitcoin makes it useless as a store of value, and there are better and more reliable options to store your wealth. Few people buy into the tinfoil-hattery that the USD is about to crash.
There is simply no pragmatic answer to "Why should I buy bitcoin?"

Cite your sources.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: NotLambchop on September 28, 2014, 07:28:17 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 07:10:00 PM

...it pays to be small and nimble.

Pays even better when you're a HashFast shill, no?

at least you were warned, no?

BlindMayorBitcorn

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Activity: 1260

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Quote from: NotLambchop on September 28, 2014, 07:28:17 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 07:10:00 PM

...it pays to be small and nimble.

Pays even better when you're a HashFast shill, no?

It is a bit cultish in here, no?

NotLambchop

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 07:10:00 PM

...it pays to be small and nimble.

Pays even better when you're a HashFast shill, no?

cypherdoc

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Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: CMMPro on September 28, 2014, 06:21:59 PM

I've said it ten times the past month....this "situation" in mining does not lead to centralization, exactly the opposite.

You know when you guys keep harping about "economy of scale" well that doesn't always mean what you obviously think it means.

You need to rethink the difference between a hobbyist miner with a couple of TH running in their basement vs a commercial building being supplied with a 0.5MW supply and transformer, and wiring performed by electricians, and CSA/UL/CE inspections, and liability insurance, and cooling the building doubling your electrical draw....and a myriad of other expenses that little children like yourselves have never encountered because you have never leased a commercial building to set up a business and you have no idea of the intricacies of business dealings at that scale.

I can't see how they are doing it when I consider the logistics and costs....certainly not with the efficiencies we have today at sub $400 prices.

are you speaking from experience?

i can relate as a 2TH hobbyist. i traded simple services for my electrician to wire in eight special 240W outlets (i'm oversupplied) with its own subpanel to the 2nd flr room of a building i already own. i put the miners up next to an open sliding door with a balcony and lined up fans pointing outwards up against the screen door. i had one of my workers install a $200 external barred gate like this for security. no other cooling:

the room is exposed to the open air 24/7 all year long. no licenses, insurance or any other special expenses except for electricity. i had additional Cat5/6 wiring run thru the walls to an external closet connecting the server with the asics to an existing internet connection used for other purposes. throw in a large roller rack.

total cost of setup and other ancillary materials, maybe $400. it pays to be small and nimble.

Pruden

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Activity: 496

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Spanish Bitcoin trader

Is it just me or every time you post this chart the "Unknown" slice is bigger?

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:48:09 PM

i'm still waiting Roll Eyes

Melbustus

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Activity: 1722

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 06:04:13 PM

from the top at 1163 on Bitstamp, we are only down 67-68%. that's not bad, nor unusual, for Bitcoin pullbacks.

try 32 --> 1.98.

Yup.

2011 pullback was: -94%
2013 (April) drop was: -81%

Wouldn't be unreasonable to max out in the -70% range on this one.

cypherdoc

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$DXY opens up; this is still causing a problem for all risk assets:

CMMPro

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I've said it ten times the past month....this "situation" in mining does not lead to centralization, exactly the opposite.

You know when you guys keep harping about "economy of scale" well that doesn't always mean what you obviously think it means.

You need to rethink the difference between a hobbyist miner with a couple of TH running in their basement vs a commercial building being supplied with a 0.5MW supply and transformer, and wiring performed by electricians, and CSA/UL/CE inspections, and liability insurance, and cooling the building doubling your electrical draw....and a myriad of other expenses that little children like yourselves have never encountered because you have never leased a commercial building to set up a business and you have no idea of the intricacies of business dealings at that scale.

I can't see how they are doing it when I consider the logistics and costs....certainly not with the efficiencies we have today at sub $400 prices.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

from the top at 1163 on Bitstamp, we are only down 67-68%. that's not bad, nor unusual, for Bitcoin pullbacks.

try 32 --> 1.98.

cypherdoc

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Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: kodtycoon on September 28, 2014, 05:26:42 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:23:51 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:20:27 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:11:02 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:03:07 PM

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way.

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap. if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network. more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price. that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now. sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic. they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech. guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space. which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running. sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

what i suspect will happen is a shake out of some of the smaller miners once they reach the point that they cant afford to mine anymore leaving a further monopoly of big time miners. whether you like it or not, this is leading to further centralization. the big guys can last longer at a loss than the small guys.

i'm still waiting Roll Eyes

cypherdoc

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Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:35:32 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:23:51 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:20:27 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:11:02 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:03:07 PM

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way.

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap. if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network. more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price. that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now. sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic. they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech. guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space. which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running. sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

I think it will be same ... but this implies, price of bitcoin cannot drop under mining costs. ... and this implies (if you look at hashrate) that price must be growing by 1 order of magnitude every 8 months. ... or some disaster will come

... I do not know the result, but it will be BIG next year (cannot wait) :-)

whoever these guys are that are throwing so much fiat into mining eventually will realize it's just cheaper and easier to buy coins directly.

Odalv

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Activity: 1414

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:23:51 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:20:27 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:11:02 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:03:07 PM

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way.

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap. if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network. more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price. that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now. sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic. they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech. guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space. which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running. sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

I think it will be same ... but this implies, price of bitcoin cannot drop under mining costs. ... and this implies (if you look at hashrate) that price must be growing by 1 order of magnitude every 8 months. ... or some disaster will come

... I do not know the result, but it will be BIG next year (cannot wait) :-)

tabnloz

legendary

Activity: 961

Merit: 1000

coindesk article re: us military, intelligence and btc

http://www.coindesk.com/us-military-command-holds-educational-meeting-bitcoin-industry/

kodtycoon

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:23:51 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:20:27 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:11:02 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:03:07 PM

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way.

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap. if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network. more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price. that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now. sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic. they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech. guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space. which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running. sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

what i suspect will happen is a shake out of some of the smaller miners once they reach the point that they cant afford to mine anymore leaving a further monopoly of big time miners. whether you like it or not, this is leading to further centralization. the big guys can last longer at a loss than the small guys.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:20:27 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:11:02 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:03:07 PM

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way.

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap. if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network. more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price. that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now. sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic. they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech. guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space. which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

as i said in my post, i think they will go out and get loans or offer equity financing if necessary to keep themselves running. sure, its possible that a few players get shaken out but we are not going to see a precipitous drop in hashing rate.

Odalv

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 28, 2014, 05:11:02 PM

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:03:07 PM

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way.

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap. if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network. more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price. that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now. sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic. they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech. guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space. which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on September 28, 2014, 04:05:57 PM

Quote

Honeybadger is bleeding to death. What's next guys?

we hit the cost of production floor, maybe undershoot by5-10%, coins become cheaper to buy than mine, some hashrate goes offline ... then the next super cycle can begin again.

That's what next you blind old fool Wink

This. I said months ago that we won't truly bottom until ASICs saturate and hashrate begins to taper.

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

I can see hash rate dropping off at some point. It won't drop off in any huge way but it will stabilize the market given the constant increase in diff and the constant decrease in price.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Odalv on September 28, 2014, 05:03:07 PM

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

it won't happen that way.

you won't get a huge dropoff in hashing rate to cause such an air gap. if we do, that would be a huge security risk for the network. more likely though, if it has to happen at all, is that large mines go out and get USD loans to pay their variable costs to get them thru what will hopefully be from here a short term drop in the price. that is, if they've managed their costs properly for a rainy day like we have now. sure we could see a drop but it won't be dramatic. they have to keep those asics running while they're still top of the line tech. guys like me will also mine out of public duty, even if at a loss, so as to protect my overall investment in the space. which is also why i run a bunch of full nodes.

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 916. (Read 2032266 times)