Topic: Gold: I smell a trap - page 54. (Read 90807 times)

With all due respect, dream on!
I bet 1 BTC we will never see 1000 USD/1 oz again.

My personal short/mid term targets are 1300-1400, then 1000. Then we will see whether we also reach 600-800.

Someone able to answer this would be probably rich enough to not bother checking threads like this one ;-)

On the way down to where?

Me too.
Very very short on gold around 1795 today. Can be a big winner on the way down

so i'm back in with a more manageable short on GLD and SLW.

Very informative, ty!

Get ready for another consolidated reply of epic proportions. Homer's got nothing on me!

*Disclaimer: I am an a**hole and I have an opinion. Don't take anything personally - think for yourself.


You've been dabbling with Bitcoin 4 years before it began?

Nine days or nine years, it doesn't matter. Focus on what's relevant.


Take another ten deep breaths and pop a valium - I can see your forehead veins pulsating from here


The dollar needs to close above 76.5 to cause a major reversal in the flow of funds. Negative divergence in long bond - it looks tired. Gold is finally getting a little unstable. It's a growing possibility that we could see a drop in the safe havens for the rest of the week.

The topic of a centralized world currency is terrifying if it's controlled by the usual suspects. I don't trust any human sleazebag to run the show. That's why my hope is with Bitcoin and similarly decentralized systems. The value from Bitcoin might be preserved during transition to a successor, should one arise. I think major adoption of it will probably take at least 3 years, as will resistance to existing power bases.

As I was writing this, I saw that the CME Group raised margin requirements, in particular on gold (+22%) and the Swiss franc (+400%). Normally, this takes the wind out of gold's sails, but today it barely registered. Watch for more margin raises in the near future (and the correction we've all been waiting for) - the COMEX will become a 100% cash market soon. This tells me that there's overwhelming demand for physical metal by interests with sufficient capital to take delivery. If anything is bullish, that is. Bullish on volatility as well. Mind the normal ups and downs.

In this market, I wouldn't trade anything but buy & hold assets (gold, Bitcoin, dividend-paying ag, energy & mining equities) or long-dated, far out-of-the-money options. Buying puts and calls in quantity for peanuts (with a few bullish vertical spreads here and there) and being patient is far better than staring at screens all day long. If I catch 50% of a major move, I'm golden (pun intended); anything more is icing. Meanwhile, I can spend time with friends and family, meet with business partners, walk the dog, lounge in the sun...

I feel my brain oozing out of my ear. Time for a break.

huh?  btc isn't issued by exhanges but fiat is by central banks.


i agree with this and i've taken my profits out of pm's and into what i think may be the next big thing.

Arguing that the exchanges currently have nothing to do with BTC is akin to arguing that fiat dollars have nothing to do with central banks.

It doesn't mean that BTC is doomed - far from it. However, there is a lot of reason to view it as a speculative currency rather than a hedge against mainstream market volatility right now. I tend to look at it as a very risky investment with the potential to pay out handsomely if the stars align and the inevitable competitors fail.

fair enough.  your opinion is just as good as mine.

but what does the last months volatility have to do with bitcoin?  the exchanges were the problem.  mtgox seems to have stabilized its security thank god and i only expect that to be worked out over time with the others.

I expect gold to continue acting as it always has as money. If markets recover and we somehow come back to stability I expect it to drop heavily, if we continue to see bottom barrel interest rates on top of 'QE3' and beyond without a new global monetary policy, I expect it to continue to climb to new heights long term - along with the usual dips and rallies.


I agree with you that the technology is here to stay, but I'm not quite so convinced that it will find its natural conclusion in its first major experiment. We have seen how incredibly fragile this currency is over the last month and I don't expect that to change unless it comes to be backed by something more than an idea. The idea may remain, but nothing says that it will be fueled exclusively by BTC.

i don't have everything in btc but it is a big chunk; more than most i presume.  i expect volatility since its so new altho it hasn't been too bad considering.

i'm comforted b/c its new and in my estimation undervalued.  i can afford to wait 10 years altho i expect it to only take around 5 to become a major player.  this comes with lots of study and i'm convinced the technology is sound and longlasting.

i read those 2 articles back 2 yrs ago in 2009!  nothings happened yet and we still have lots of talk. 

clearly the PPT has stepped back from ramping the stock mkt for the past 2.5 yrs.  why?  they're plunging and will continue to do so.  i think this reflationary ramp of 100% and QE2 injection was to allow the banks to dump their toxic assets and brace themselves for phase 2 of the decline.  its here.  debatably, everything has rolled and i think continues to plunge; not in a straight line but to deep lows, perhaps below 3/09.  do you really expect gold to survive this?

i'm still skeptical of the one world currency.

You're trying to protect against volatility by investing heavily in Bitcoin? I mean I see investing as a risk that may pay off very well down the road, but how is BTC possibly protecting you against volatility right now?

i'd like to point out one thing to bullion holders since this is the form that has been pushed heavily by the bulls here on the thread and since i just went thru the liquidation phase of 90% of my bullion.

its alot harder to liquidate than you think. if i'm right and gold bursts from its parabolic ramp, by the time you realize whats happening everyone else will too and the rush to liquidate at your local coin dealers or wherever is going to be very very hard with a large haircut i guarantee.  this is a very dangerous situation which is why i moved out now and b/c of bitcoin.  this is the age of volatility and bullion holders assume that everything is going to go to hell with your fiat USD's being burned in furnaces for heat and you being able to sit in the corner of your house guarding your gold coins and somehow being rich for it.  this won't happen.  i see it more likely that there is a panic induced in the gold market much like there is right now in stocks and you won't be spared.

I'm not quite as optimistic as you on the prediction of revolutions against central banking. While there has been a degree of "awakening" in this regard, the movement is still very much a small niche in mainstream politics with a majority of people across the western world still very much stuck in, and dependent upon, the left-right paradigm. Those in conspiracy circles who think that the agenda for a world currency will be spontaneously announced in a grand ceremony or even put to the public for their opinion are lacking in knowledge of how modern central banking systems were introduced.

Of course the US won't give up power overnight, but the insane economic policies, massive debt and state crackdown on the last few productive sectors of the US economy are going to force it to pack up its role as the world's policeman exactly as the spent British Empire did post-WW2. Once again, this won't occur overnight and none of these opinions are intended to influence short term investors as I don't play the same game you folks do; however, in the mid to long term the US is absolutely losing its status as the world's superpower and manager of the reserve currency. This is already occurring with nations looking to move towards "baskets" when trading in big commodities: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

Take a guess where the clustered regional currencies and basket currencies are intended to lead? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/5796892/Russian-President-Dmitry-Medvedev-pulls-new-world-currency-from-his-pocket.html

good article.  however, no one trusts the Chinese to supervise a reserve currency; heck they're communists and don't believe in human rights.  also all the harsh rhetoric makes it doubtful you could get them all to share a one world currency.  i sincerely doubt the US Fed will want to destroy itself to let this happen.  USD hegemony is legendary and who would willingly give up that power esp. when your members billions of wealth is stored in USD's?  don't dismiss whats happening to the Euro lightly.  look at the animosity and mud slinging btwn Greece and Germany.  now btwn France and Germany.  memories die hard.  you cannot unite monetary policy w/o fiscal policy. as long as you have borders, armies, and ppl of different color it won't work.  plus the Internet has made the entire planet aware of the shenanigans of central bankers.  there will be revolution before this happens.

You will never have a one world currency announced overnight but the plan has long been to cluster regional currencies and "basket currencies" as a stepping stone towards a world currency. The decline of the Euro is arguably bad news for this agenda, but just as the climate zealots never step back from calls for depopulation, neither will the global economic planners from centralization.

I don't think many people can still deny that we are, in nearly every aspect of politics, being herded towards international "governance" and away from localized decision making. If you question this, do a quick read on Agenda 21 or the mass of other "biding treaties" that every developed nation on the globe is signed up for. With centralized policy comes centralized economics and this is already leading to many calls for a new world currency. The eventual Euro and US$ crash will only add fuel to the political fire that has already begun: http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/markets-mainmenu-45/8517-china-calls-for-global-supervision-of-dollar-new-world-currency

All that said, will this occur in the short term? I highly doubt it. We will need a much higher degree of chaos before a majority of national leaders begin echoing China and Russia in calling for a new global standard.

the US did not announce any further QE yesterday but did imply they might keep interest rates at 0 until mid 2013.  chumps to steal our hard earned money.  yes, the ECB has indicated they want to monetize Italian/Spain bonds but the Bundesbank is screaming.  Japan has been doing it for decades yet the Yen keeps strengthening as the Nikkei has dumped 75% since the 1980's.  the same could happen to us; pushing on a string yet get persistent grinding deflation and a rising USD.

gold is going parabolic ignoring the deflation all around it.  UST's are soaring also paradoxically.   i took my shorts down today just to get out of the way but am ready to add back on the slightest sign of weakness.  no one knows exactly whats going to happen but i am cautioning that its possible the Fed is targeting PM's to try and get the USD back up.  why wouldn't they want to do this?  its their franchise and they lead the world with the reserve currency.  they're in control i argue, not Congress whom they own.  Timmay and his Congressional buddies all want their IB corner offices you know.

and if you don't believe the conspiracy theories then i argue the parabola is a sign of a bubble blowoff and will pop of its own design.  of course as has been argued quite effectively on this thread it can on for a long time.

look at the other commodities.  most had blowoff tops and then have dumped hard esp. cotton.  silver is lagging and arguably rolling.  gold is the only bull.  stocks have doubled since 3/09 and was the biggest ramp since 1930.  we just had our reflation and it clearly hasn't worked.  its time for deflation.