Topic: Goomboo's Journal - page 2. (Read 281459 times)

I have trouble understanding the reason of your quote. If we consider the market uncertain or bearish, are you quoting them as an exemple to follow ? Or since they are being greedy, are you quoting them to point out what your readers shouldnt do ?

I rather the price we have today... until i have enough to enjoy an upturn.

I support this attitude.  If hundreds, thousands more people like you were able to take a leap of faith and buy some bitcoin right now, we'd be out of this downturn and cruisin' into a solid bull market within 48 hours.

"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy, and Greedy When Others Are Fearful" -Warren Buffett

So you didnt read anything in this thread and still follow your gut?

Gut instinct is telling me things are uncertain and I should be careful, maybe sell of my position while I can still break even. Logic tells me that I'm not the only one feeling this, markets sentiment feels shaky, china situations still bad, no improvement in price, things seem dire, BTC might be going down the drain and I can still get out now.

I am going to increase my position in BTC by 150% in the coming days. This is the first time trading in which I am going to ignore all these above intuitions. Every time I had this uncertainty I should have invested. Every time the market seemed so uncertain I should have invested. Time to roll the dice, see you on the other side.

Thanks for the intel

cavirtex in canada has also publicly stated they have a liquidity provider.

You've gotta be kidding, right?  There are only a few days or weeks out of each bitcoin downturn per half year/ or year where the price completely bottoms out.  Where bitcoin is left for dead by the whale speculators and the volume plummets to a trickle.  When there is a lot of fear and uncertainty about bitcoin's future.  These provide the absolute BEST buying opportunities bar none. And here's a clue for you, WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ONE RIGHT NOW.  Would you rather wait until bitcoin is on an uptrend and panic buy between $600-800?  Or even wait until it's back to $1000? You know, a confirmed uptrend can easily lose steam and turn into a downturn as well, so an uptrend is not a guarantee of anything either.

When longs talk about taking a long position, they are talking about holding for 1-2 years.  Not 5 minutes, or 3 months, or 6 months, or ....

Not sure if this is a useful answer to you, but it seems to me that the mysterious exchange hitbtc.com has a liquidity provider on board. Could be hitbtc itself or some external business.

Anyone aware of any BTC liquidity providers?

Oh, it's following that graph.  Don't worry though -- the bear trap is almost over.   

I think we have seen that picture enough times now.

Thanks for the advice guys, much appreciated!

So, playing the devil's advocate on the slight side-issue of the BTC price trend, someone tell me why the BTC history isn't following this well known graph:

^
this



I'm suggesting that only someone who has first-hand experience in trading can testify how hard it is to beat B&H in the long run. Looking in the rear-view mirror is important, but means very little. Finding people who consistently beat B&H is very hard, acquiring their services is even harder because chances are they are not lurking to get your money to trade with it, they probably have enough capital to work with.

I'm not a financial advisor, so I am not qualified to give you direct advice for your situation, but here's my opinion on people looking to get into trading:




Even in the regulated markets, there are very few traders that you can trust.  Results shown are hypothetical or displayed in such a way as to mask the destructive habits of traders.  For example, I can make a strategy in 10 minutes that will produce a beautiful performance chart but is destined to fail.  For an off-the-cuff estimate, I'd say that 90% of traders offering their services fall into one of the following categories:

1) Scammers presenting false results with the intention of outright theft
2) Tricksters realizing that their system is the result of curve-fitting and martingale betting, hoping to make a quick buck from a few weeks of successful performance before the account is destroyed
3) Naive individuals who think that a few dozen successful trades equates to trading success


To speak directly to your question: it is difficult to find a successful, legitimate, and experienced trader in any market, let alone BTC, where the lack of regulation results in even greater dishonesty.  Finding good traders and money managers can be so difficult that there is a subset of the money management industry which tries to identify the best.  If I were tasked with hiring good traders, I would require the following:

1) Low winning percentage.  This is perhaps the biggest indicator of a troubled trader.  The outcome of any trade is essentially random.  Bad traders have a psychological need to win individual (random) trades, so they will quickly cut trades that go in their favor and hold losing trades until the market turns around.  This is a deadly flaw which will eventually result in account destruction.  Losing traders love to boast about how successful they are "I win 95% of my trades".  If you win $1 for 95 out of 100 trades but lose $1000 on the other 5%, you're a terrible trader in my book.

As one of the Market Wizards from Jack Schwager's book said:

"One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: you can't go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance."
- William Eckhardt

2) Average winning trade gain multiples larger than average losing trade loss.  A good trader understand that he's just playing a numbers game - he must cut his losing trades quickly and let his winning trades travel as far as the market provides.  For example, if a trader makes an average return of 5% on winning trades but only loses around 1% on his losing trades, he can be successful by winning 30% of all trades.

3) Willingness to display track record and provide account statements so that you can reproduce the track record yourself.

4) Humility.  You can't work in a field in which success means losing money on 70-80% of your decisions and make bombastic claims about calling the market direction.

There are several other criteria I could rattle off, but these will filter out most of the bad apples - assuming you can even get honest trading results in the first place.

I'm suggesting that if you were starting a position as of today, based on obvious trends currently in play, buying and holding might not give very good results in future.

Are you suggesting that the people buying and holding should sell right now?

LOL.

Not sure, what you mean.  Are you suggesting that no-one can beat buy and hold!?

Try scrolling out a year with your timeline and then tell me which strategy is better.

I dunno man, the way I see it buy and hold has been a bad idea since late November: