Topic: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now - page 9. (Read 16906 times)

dooglus, you're way too intelligent of a guy to be wasting your time trying to understand why this guy believes this thing.

They can shill all they want, the volume lately is decidedly towards the upside. There simply aren't many sellers left, only institutional buyers remain, and, as we know, their supply of fiat is basically limitless.

There's no stopping this halving moon train, so let it be written, so let it be done.

The Koshers that be are definitely accelerating their shilling lately in fear of price increase.

Sure, each of us is free to believe what we like based on the evidence of what we see and what we consider to be logical. 

I understand and even believe that a certain amount price manipulation is taking place in the bitcoin space; however, your outline of a mining scheme to manipulate price for its own benefit and worth the cost of doing business seems to attempt to minimize the number of players in the bitcoin scene and the expanding bitcoin market.  Your attempt to simplify and to minimize aspects of the bitcoin community is much more complicated than the more likely reality that there are a variety of players and miners are not significantly selling to themselves in any widespread way.

I agree that bitcoin remains a relatively small market (with a small market cap); nonetheless, I place quite a bit less weight on your description of influential bitcoin players because I  believe that you are putting too much weight on the manipulation aspect whether you are talking about miners or other big (and likely manipulative) players.  They exist, but so what?  There are also a growing widespread of additional non-manipulating players.

There are quite a few theories out there that attempt to minimize the paradigm changing reality of BTC including ones that attribute a considerable amount of weight to the Gox willy bot in late 2013.. surely these price manipulation practices are factors that in fact affect bitcoin's price; however, even though bitcoin is currently relatively small, it's growth potential is considerable and likely, even if it may take a few years to evolve and to develop a larger grassroots base..

So even if there is a little bit of truth to your theory regarding some miners attempting to manipulate BTC prices, the practice is likely small in the whole scheme of things.. and anecdotal rather than systematic. 

I guess when you say "miners" you mean hardware? if one is faced with a financial loss, one chooses the least damaging path. If running a miner and paying electric bills is more expensive than simply bailing out and selling the hardware, you sell the hardware. Selling hardware seems like LESS work than maintaining it, but I guess it's a matter of opinion.

I have no proof that people are selling to themselves, but it's LOGICAL that miners would be. Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial, furthermore the exchange could be part of a scheme to keep prices up, and simply refund the fee (or double it). Of course you could also sell to yourself at a LOWER price - I suspect some are doing this as well. These markets aren't regulated, so there is nothing illegal about moving millions of BTC back and forth between sock puppet accounts all day.  That's what this market looks like to me. If you control sufficient volume, it's possible even to move the market one way or the other, then buy low/sell high and profit. I know there are big players in the space who have the ability to move the BTC price, fortunately for this ecosystem, most of them favor the upside...

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

In the text below, find the following:
 >Your name is retarded
 >what you type is retarded
 >if you happened to impregnate a woman that your children would be retarded.
 >You basically wrote the most retarded thing I've ever read in the history of the internet
 >Get the fuck off this forum
 >you're worse than the third world trash

But it's me... I'm the one who is trolling. Because pointed out that there's no need to be upset

NLC your trolling/bearishness has gone into over drive lately. Are you or your master(s) concerned about a potential price increase?

You sound a little upset, solitude. There's no need to be upset.

Nice one r0ach... I agree with every word, esp. the sentence i've highlighted.. Once a rise/rally starts in earnest strap yourselves in and hold on because as you've rightly pointed out, this thing (bitcoin rallies) takes on a life of it's own. Momentum and pressure builds and it starts to rise like crazy.. FOMO and greed and hype all play a part. It's a feeding frenzy...just don't get bitten by the sharks..

Regarding halving. My own thoughts are that we will only see a modest rise before and at first a modest rise after.. for some weeks and then things will start to pick up speed.
Price-wise, to speculate..I'd say up to around $600 pre halving.. then gradually up to 800 in the 6-10 weeks after it.
After that, hopefully we will be gearing up for a proper rally.

If we pass the current ATH - watchout. I wouldn't even like to hazard a guess where it would go then. But some signs that the rally is exhausted are double/triple tops.. high RSI (90+) and when the value increases 100% in a week... you should be thinking of selling under those conditions.
There will be a killing to be made when the first drop happens. It will drop.. and it will drop by lots... selling at or near the top and catching the bottom of the first big drop will be very profitable for those who manage it right.

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go.  

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

Dude, Juan man, I see you post in the Wall Observer thread all the time and you clearly weren't shy to reply to my post.


I hope you're making big bucks writing for some website, you clearly enjoy writing, and from I've read recently, you make logical coherent points. 

If you're not writing about bitcoin for some website making some cash I suggest you look into it.  It's not for me, but it seems like the thing for you.

It's like you're the dumbest bankster in the world trying to convince die-hard bitcoiners that bitcoin sucks.

You're the type of fucking retard who probably earns a median income, but is obviously mentally retarded.

I hope Satoshi descends from the sky, grabs you by your neck fat, and drops you in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, you retarded fucking faggot.

I doubt that it really matters too much regarding how much BTC posters in these speculation threads are holding.  Surely claims seem a bit more realistic when they are working with more than 5 or 10 coins, and surely it helps to make profits a bit greater when working with a larger stash of coins.  Sometimes when the reference is to a stash of less than 1 coin, then it becomes more difficult to take the person seriously (especially if making claims about trading BTC)

Between late 2013 and mid-2014, my goal was to build up a personal holdings of about 30 coins, yet when BTC prices dropped from $1,000 to $600 then to $400 and finally to $200 and below, 30 coins became a lot more attainable, well within my budget, and I ended up exceeding that initial goal. 

Frequently, after I had attained my initial 30 coins, I would begin to talk more in hypotheticals, and not discuss too many specifics regarding my exact quantity of holdings; however, I frequently like to use 100 coins as easy reference point when discussing BTC accumulation and trading strategies and techniques..

Whether I personally hold 100 coins, 100 coins seems like a good round number that could be easy to digest and fairly within grasp of a lot of people who have been at this accumulation and trading of BTC for a while.

On the other hand, it seems that in the coming years, and once BTC prices may likely 10x in the coming years (possibly even this year), it may become more practical to talk about accumulating and/or trading 10 coins, for illustrative purposes.   

I'm pretty sure you are mentally retarded.

You can type like you've at least graduated high school, but the words you type are simply retarded.  Do you seriously think that most of the bitcoin mining is done by children?  If the majority of bitcoin mining was done by children, why would they even have to worry about debt?  They're fucking children, they're not even old enough to own a credit card.

"Mervyn_Pumpkinhead", wow, what an original name.  Your name is retarded, what you type is retarded, and I wouldn't be surprised if you happened to impregnate a woman that your children would be retarded.

You basically wrote the most retarded thing I've ever read in the history of the internet, since I joined the internet in 1996. 

Get the fuck off this forum, you're worse than the third world trash who post here with their gibberish broken english looking for signature spam bucks.

Following the bitcoin mining business model is far from being a rational financial action.
At first, it's technologically very simplistic, meaning that having skill and experience can't give you a edge in the field over the competition. Meaning that bitcoin mining has always been unattractive for the skilled and experienced, and attractive for those who found the simplistic nature suitable for their own abilities.
And like I said, those who actually designed and built the equipment are different kind of people and that's why the majority of them stayed away from making money by mining themselves. They are smart enough to know that you can't build a solid business plan on top of mining bitcoin. It's just too unstable and unpredictable, and that makes it a blind gamble, that is a big no-no among educated entrepreneurs.

Regarding their funding, it mostly comes from creditors who have no emotional attachment to bitcoin whatsoever. They won't "wait a little longer, because Satoshi may soon descend from the sky and save bitcoin before destroying all the evil banksters". When the clock hits, then they will not hesitate to just bankrupt those companies, stripping their assets dry and selling them on the market. That's the main thing that makes bitcoin value so fragile to my perspective. The piles of accumulated coins are rising and there are plenty of disgruntled creditors whose patience is wearing out. In my eyes, it's just a time bomb waiting to go off.

Dr. r0ach returns.  Dr. r0ach, care to inform the approximate # of bitcoins you hold these days?  If you're bashful and shy, at least inform us how many digits you hold?  One, Two, or Three bitcoin digits?  If you're a big boy and hold four digits worth of bitcoin, you can send me a personal message, I won't bite.

I added to the original post about that fact.  That we already know the current process node miners aren't going to be turned off under really any circumstance, so if they begin to mine at a loss, they will buy coins off the wall at the same time as mining to dollar cost average their daily expense until the price reaches a level where it's no longer possible to do so.