Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now - page 8.

r0ach

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Quote from: maokoto on April 09, 2016, 04:51:29 PM

I cannot know for sure, but I think it is already priced in. If bitcoin were to double price, that would mean a lot of money coming from outside into Bitcoin. I do not think the "outside world" is gonna to put that money in just because of the halving. In fact, if they were to put it in, they would have already done so, as everyone is expecting the halving to produce a big raise.

In other words, for price to rise there should be an increase in demand, not just shortage in supply, as there are lots of Bitcoins already,

But I can be wrong.

If you could please short with your entire life savings, we would all appreciate it.

maokoto

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I cannot know for sure, but I think it is already priced in. If bitcoin were to double price, that would mean a lot of money coming from outside into Bitcoin. I do not think the "outside world" is gonna to put that money in just because of the halving. In fact, if they were to put it in, they would have already done so, as everyone is expecting the halving to produce a big raise.

In other words, for price to rise there should be an increase in demand, not just shortage in supply, as there are lots of Bitcoins already,

But I can be wrong.

bargainbin

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Quote from: stckpkr7000 on April 09, 2016, 03:38:27 PM

Roach,

You are dead on brother. I managed a small hedge fund through the 90s (made over 100,000 trades during that span) < snip >

How dare you stand in the presence of Our Royal Person, pathetic hedge fund manager of inferior merchant class?!
On your knees, knave!
Kneel before the Glory that is We, the King of Siam!

stckpkr7000

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Quote from: solitude on April 08, 2016, 12:09:54 AM

Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ? Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you? You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face. What is your deal, man? Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs

Dude, you need to do some soul searching as you seem to have some anger issues.

stckpkr7000

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Quote from: alani123 on April 07, 2016, 12:50:33 AM

Meh OP, you sound like the guind of guy that is emotionally attached to bitcoin's price. It's highly likely that the halving is priced in, just look at this 6 month chart, longterm support is basically nonexistent.

http://i.imgur.com/ih9Ap6Q.png

Your chart shows something that is currently digesting a large move (Oct/Nov 2015) via sideways trading. These scenerios break towards the prevailing trend 9:10 times. Come on guys...... Any of you bears have any REAL experience?

stckpkr7000

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Roach,

You are dead on brother. I managed a small hedge fund through the 90s (made over 100,000 trades during that span), and I can't even begin to tell you how many times something obvious was "priced in" to a stock price according to my peers. A stock split, earnings beat, merger, etc. Nobody can say with complete certainty, but simple supply and demand will cause BTC appreciation over time. People shouldn't own any kind of speculative investment if they can't grasp supply vs. demand 101. Equal to increasing demand with decreasing supply will absolutely cause an upward trajectory. There is zero chance something with the tiny float of BTC has "priced in" an event 3 months from now as this is more Wild West vs. the Wild West of the 1800s. Some smaller shops are starting to take note and accumulate BTC as well, and this should put a very solid floor under any massive selling attempts.

r0ach

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Quote from: lyth0s on April 09, 2016, 02:46:28 PM

Roach did you see my previous post? Thoughts?

Quote

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom Smiley

It's like going to a war and you can't answer that question until you get there, it starts, and you see who shows up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAGx-VnCBek

lyth0s

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Roach did you see my previous post? Thoughts?

Quote

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom Smiley

r0ach

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The best is when you get these people coming up to you saying stuff like "omg Bitcoin can never go to something like $2800. Who will buy $2800 Bitcoins???"

Then I answer, "Me, the day after I sell at $3000". Then they squint their eyes and look around confused thinking "huh...this can't be how it works...."

Chef Ramsay

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Quote from: dooglus on April 08, 2016, 08:11:35 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 08, 2016, 08:01:04 PM

Quote from: dooglus on April 08, 2016, 07:05:07 PM

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

Maybe I missed it. Would you mind repeating it, or linking to the post? Thanks.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1428863.80

dooglus

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Quote from: r0ach on April 08, 2016, 08:01:04 PM

Quote from: dooglus on April 08, 2016, 07:05:07 PM

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

Maybe I missed it. Would you mind repeating it, or linking to the post? Thanks.

r0ach

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Quote from: dooglus on April 08, 2016, 07:05:07 PM

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

dooglus

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Quote from: Chalkbot on April 08, 2016, 03:21:03 PM

Quote from: dooglus on April 08, 2016, 01:26:29 PM

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

dooglus, you're way too intelligent of a guy to be wasting your time trying to understand why this guy believes this thing.

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

Quote from: classicsucks on April 08, 2016, 01:40:16 PM

Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial

Whenever I sell coin to myself to preserve profits I do it OTC, in person. That way there are no fees at all and no counterparty risk.

Just kidding. How does selling coin to yourself "keep the price up"? Isn't that crazy talk?

lyth0s

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World Class Cryptonaire

lyth0s

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World Class Cryptonaire

Quote from: solitude on April 08, 2016, 03:20:17 AM

Quote from: lyth0s on April 08, 2016, 01:38:09 AM

Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.

Wow, mr. hot shot "World Class Cryptonaire" hit the nail on the head.

You're absolutely right, I don't think my bullion is worth much more than a grand.

Come on hot shot World Class Cryptonaire, show us your wealth.

Although to be honest, with a stupid picture not much more impressive than our reality tv friend Chef Ramsay, and a dumb name "World Class Cryptonaire" underneath it, I'd say you were more of a bullshitting retarded poser than anyone holding any serious wealth.

Although I'm waiting here for you to convince me you were the real deal.

Quote from: solitude

I'm pretty sure you are mentally retarded.

It's like you're the dumbest bankster in the world trying

You're the type of fucking retard

Many of us here are educated and your ad hominem attacks aren't impressing anyone. There is no incentive for me to "show my wealth", only badness can come from that.

I have an above average income and have been accumulating for 4 years. I have enough to keep me comfortable for now.

lyth0s

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Quote from: keystroke on April 08, 2016, 04:55:37 PM

Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.

Can you explain? The total supply has increased since then and if a new ATH in price/coin is reached then both parts of the equation to determine marketcap will have increased thereby creating a new ATH in market cap as well.

Marketcap = total bitcoins (has gone up) * Price/coin (if goes above old ATH) = new ATH marketcap.

keystroke

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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.

bargainbin

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Quote from: UngratefulTony on April 08, 2016, 03:16:59 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 08, 2016, 03:02:47 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on April 08, 2016, 07:59:50 AM

NLC your trolling/bearishness has gone into over drive lately. Are you or your master(s) concerned about a potential price increase?

The Koshers that be are definitely accelerating their shilling lately in fear of price increase.

They can shill all they want, the volume lately is decidedly towards the upside. There simply aren't many sellers left, only institutional buyers remain, and, as we know, their supply of fiat is basically limitless.

There's no stopping this halving moon train, so let it be written, so let it be done.

Don't let me interrupt.

solitude

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Quote

the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories

Don't you mean 6 million stories? oy vey! Remember the six trillion, goyim!

lissandra

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Quote from: dooglus on April 08, 2016, 01:26:29 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 07, 2016, 05:49:39 PM

Quote from: dooglus on April 07, 2016, 05:35:39 PM

If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now so you can make a guaranteed profit when the price rises? Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?

I put it to you that this has already happened.

Because small traders are agile traders that have advantages in markets. If someone is a billionaire, they're not going to go all in on Bitcoin because...they aren't going to go all in on anything no matter how good it sounds. You have some rare exceptions like Soros, but he's an insider trading financial terrorist benefiting from government connections and should be in jail.

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

There is no counter argument lol.

Case closed. If a person needs a long block of wall text to explain the supportive argument or debate, they just dont understand it enough is how I usually go with people.

I deal with people all the time, if a person can explain in a few 3-4 simple sentences, I just move on.

Topic: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now - page 8. (Read 16906 times)