Topic: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now - page 4. (Read 16906 times)

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

I can't find a definition of that term, but I did find this: time value of money. Is that what you're talking about?

I can see that since it would be possible to gain a small return over the next month or two there's no point in bidding the price of BTC all the way up to the post-halving price now. But since interest rates are so low you would still expect the halving to be mostly priced in already.


You were claiming that the payoff would happen at the halving and that it is impossible for any gain from the halving to already be priced in. I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in. I am yet to see any kind of logical argument for your position.

Around $443 looks like is the bottom of this move.

Number one, because as I already mentioned, there is a factor of time opportunity cost.  Nobody knows when the payoff for holding is supposed to begin, so the market has to figure it out in a battle on the orderbooks.  Your post is also kind of a contradiction in itself, seeing as how this is a deflationary currency where numerous coins are lost per year.  On an infinite timeline the price nears infinity, so why isn't the price infinity now?  Because as I said it's IMPOSSIBLE to be priced in due to time opportunity cost.

One of your statements must be false - you've contradicted yourself. The preceding statement is true. The followng statement may be false.

I think bitcoin price changes ONLY based on what people are feeling, based on the information they have gathered. Just like the Wall Street markets in this regard.

of course you can price it in, and a whole hell-of-a lot of other people can price it in too; however, all of those people still do not make the whole market or the market behavior from those known events there continue to remain a lot of unknowns, including a number of market actors who do not realize the impact and whose actions cannot be predicted ahead of time. 

Therefore, halfing is only partially priced in because market information is imperfect (even with known factors) and humans are not completely rational... and accordingly, the behaviors of some irrational people are going to affect the rational and irrational behaviors of others, creating even more unknowns.

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

Preach it bro! Let's get some money soon.

All sig spammers please roast in hell.

the price of bitcoin does not change with what people are feeling!

although it is effective because it creates hype and sometimes panic which leads to rise and fall, it is not the main deriving force behind market changes.

this is true only to a certain extend, if something is bound to happen it will happen no matter what everyone think

there are some things that you know ahead of time that they will happen at 100%, just by feeling

From my experience, when most people believe something the exact opposite happens. Don't be blinded by the hype, bitcoin is known for its surprises

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet.  

Sure looks that way.

I maintain that he started it with his provocative title.

Maybe consider changing it. Here are some suggestions:

    "Halving guide for noobs:  Why I really really hope the halving is not priced in now"
    "Halving guide for noobs:  The halving is not priced in now. Because I said so"
    "Halving guide for noobs:  The halving is not priced in now. Because billionaires diversify, Soros is bent, and dooglus can't tie his own shoelaces"

You came to the wrong neighborhood, mothafukkah

By not selling my coins.

If I was a miner and I believed roach that the forthcoming halving isn't priced in then I would stop selling the coins that I am mining for a couple of months. Why would I sell now for $400 each if I could wait 2 months and sell the same coins for $800 each? Maybe I would have to sell some of them to cover expenses, but I would certainly hold onto the rest.

This, of course, would reduce the supply and so increase the price. This, of course, is what we mean when we say the halving is already "priced in".


I am very open to being convinced that I am wrong. I am waiting for an argument that shows how the halving can't possibly already be priced in. But it seems all people have to offer is name calling. I'm not sure what you mean by "bulltards". I'm bullish on BTC price personally. Are you suggesting that there is something wrong in attempting to "buy low sell high"? Either way, I'm not waiting to "unload" - I hold BTC because historically it has performed better than any other asset class I am aware of. If the price drops it's not a big problem, and if it rises I still won't be in any hurry to sell.


This is true. BUT we all already know that the newly mined supply will be halving soon. As a miner why wouldn't you already be slowing the rate at which you are selling to take advantage of the post-halving price rise, and in doing so be pricing the halving in right now?


Yes, of course. The halving doesn't really halve the supply, it only halves the first derivative of the supply. The supply grows only half as fast as it did before. But I was trying to keep things simple. The subject of this thread says "Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" yet not a single argument has been made here as to why it is not possible. I think the thread is really nothing but an attempt to pump the price, disguised as an argument, which is why when I try to engage people here all I get back is insults. They're on "team pump" and since I'm arguing with them I must be on "team dump". In reality I am on "team logic", but they don't seem to speak logic.

The common spam you always see from the banker shills on here is that "if everyone thinks the price will go up the market will do the opposite!".  WRONG, pumpers are always looking for an excuse to pump the market to some bollinger band busting levels after they buy in early, whether it's Bitcoin, gold, or goats.

Bitcoins are not "consumed" per se but the number of people holding them or using them for trading \ speculation are constantly increasing; so we can assume that the demand mean is increasing over a long period of time.

I still belive that the bitcoin price isn't 100% influenced by demand\offer tho; it's highly speculative. And thus i belive the expectation for the price increase will drive the price up by itself

... and so the 'supply' of fiat that represents demand for bitcoin is potentially all the fiat in the world by that logic? (And increasing by the billions of fiat per month at last count)