Pages:
Author

Topic: Has BFL found a new way to screw over it's customers, I'll let you be the judge. - page 3. (Read 4900 times)

legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
Your reasoning is sound, except I am not sure bitfury's could still be produced at a reasonable margin that corresponds to a market price in a 50+PH network. Miners may still want to increase their hashrate, but bitfury wouldnt be able to sell them cheap enough (unless miners would get a multi year investment horizon).

Right, Bitfury isn't endgame. It's just the best that's currently available. Better stuff will come along.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.

Proof? How about "Tape out August 2013"? Think that's the truth? How about "That 65nm ASIC chip is now powering the majority of the bitcoin network."? Is that the truth? Those are from their current website.
On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true.  Just cause times have changed you're demanding they change along with it.  Yet I don't see you tracking down the hundreds of other companies that have made claims that are now not true due to time and change.  Until I see your righteous anger directed at more than 1 company, you are just like yip-yip... a noise a tiny dog makes.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040

Growth rate is going to continue to skyrocket until the cost of electricity becomes significant.

Bitfury, 400 GH/s at 300 watts.

Current Difficulty = 112628548 roughly 1 PH/s
Daily income  = $223
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Difficulty at roughly 54 PH/s
Daily income  = $4.13
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Even at 54 PH/s, electricity costs are only 17% for a lot of miners. That's still a profit of $100/mo, so reasonably prices ASICs will still sell at that difficulty. ASIC prices are going to keep plummeting, and the network is going to blow past 54 PH/s. Easily.

Your reasoning is sound, except I am not sure bitfury's could still be produced at a reasonable margin that corresponds to a market price in a 50+PH network. Miners may still want to increase their hashrate, but bitfury wouldnt be able to sell them cheap enough (unless miners would get a multi year investment horizon).

Instead, I used hashfast's chip to calculate the endgame. Spreadsheet can be found here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3165331

Depending on electricity cost and other assumptions, you will end up somewhere between 80 and 800PH.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

Asicminer is fleecing people with honesty.
BFL is fleecing people with dishonesty.

Subtle but significant difference.
That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.

Proof?

legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.

Proof? How about "Tape out August 2013"? Think that's the truth? How about "That 65nm ASIC chip is now powering the majority of the bitcoin network."? Is that the truth? Those are from their current website.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

Asicminer is fleecing people with honesty.
BFL is fleecing people with dishonesty.

Subtle but significant difference.
That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

Asicminer is fleecing people with honesty.
BFL is fleecing people with dishonesty.

Subtle but significant difference.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.
I am no hypocrite at the very least.

I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same.
True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact -

Thats a spectacularly stupid reason to buy mining hardware... (or lease hashrate). "to keep mining income stable". Really?
Any sane person would invest in mining equipment if/when if he sees an opportunity for it to be most likely profitable,  but apparently if your profitability goes out of the window, your solution is constantly doubling down ?
That will end well!
For BFL that is, they will soon sell out that datacenter.
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
You probably don't realize that by May 16 2014 you have difficulty up over 6 billion.  We'd only need something like 54 Petahash to reach that and the total of all estimated preorders today only comes to around 10-14PH.  At that difficulty, anything that cost over $.50 per GH would be unprofitable long term by your table.  But hey, it's not intended to be accurate, it's just BFL you're causing FUD to after all.

Growth rate is going to continue to skyrocket until the cost of electricity becomes significant.

Bitfury, 400 GH/s at 300 watts.

Current Difficulty = 112628548 roughly 1 PH/s
Daily income  = $223
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Difficulty at roughly 54 PH/s
Daily income  = $4.13
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Even at 54 PH/s, electricity costs are only 17% for a lot of miners. That's still a profit of $100/mo, so reasonably prices ASICs will still sell at that difficulty. ASIC prices are going to keep plummeting, and the network is going to blow past 54 PH/s. Easily.
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
Quote
Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!
I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.
Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 17,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - this option is still much profitable than KNC.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date Wink.
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.

http://cointerra.com/ $3/gh shipping January
And the march towards 50 cent per Gh/s has started....

Makes you realize that BFL just took a dump in front of their customers and called it "liquid gold"...
hero member
Activity: 576
Merit: 500
Quote
Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!
I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.
Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 17,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - this option is still much profitable than KNC.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date Wink.
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.

http://cointerra.com/ $3/gh shipping January
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
Quote
Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!
I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.
Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 12,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - these options are sort of the same by profitability.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date Wink.
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
KNC photo's of their first 28nm chips.


How long can BFL hold out before slashing prices? (Only time will tell)
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
PuertoLibre, I would modify that gif to be 10 days per change, not 14.

BFL can not be trusted to meet the demanding challenges of time to market.  But they will still get more suckers I'm sure.  Their production ability is piss poor but their marketing and advertising is ace.
With a 10 Day Period.

With a 10 day period of change....wow the Hosting Package 1Th/s....the income pretty much flatlines at around Early February.

Yikes...

(An understatement)

How can BFL sell something which is obviously not even close to profitable? (BTC wise)

They could fix this by making the hosting contract only 1 month long max, or 14 days. They would have to substantially change things around to make it viable.
You probably don't realize that by May 16 2014 you have difficulty up over 6 billion.  We'd only need something like 54 Petahash to reach that and the total of all estimated preorders today only comes to around 10-14PH.  At that difficulty, anything that cost over $.50 per GH would be unprofitable long term by your table.  But hey, it's not intended to be accurate, it's just BFL you're causing FUD to after all.
I am saying exactly that.

I don't agree with putting a 10 day interval. But someone requested it...because that is what it is in actual reality. (I know bcp19, you don't like reality)

And ultimately, yes, I totally agree with your statement. Anything above 50cents per GH/s is not a long term investment.

Sorry, to be the alarm clock, but it is time to wake up. Hash Fast (one example) is already offering miners at $3.50-ish per Gh/s.

BFL is offering the Monarch at about double that.
---------------------------

So don't look so surprised when I actually agree with your statement my friend. .50cents should be close to what a long term invester in BTC is looking for.

Why should I be surprised that you and I can come to the same conclusions on the same data concerning difficulty and $/hashrate?  I've told several people that the current market is not good for investing in mining equipment.  I knew it wasn't a good investment when I ordered my Jalapeno, but I'm not in this for quick cash, I'm investing in the future.  This is what the 'invest in BTC not equipment' people don't understand.  I've earned not quite 3BTC from my mining efforts over the last 4 motnhs.  I've invested some and played with the market and overall I did well since I am now "worth" well over 10BTC.  Here's the rub though... the BTC I mined is 'play money'.  I don't really care if I win or lose with my investments, so I am a little bolder with them.  If I would have spent cash to get those BTC, I would have never taken half of the investments I did, cause it would have lost the play money aspect of it.  This is why buying equipment is more palatable to me than buying BTC.  My monthly expenses don't change much and I don't have to worry every second of the day whether I am gaining or losing money.
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?
So the hosting center isn't going into operation for a year?  I must have missed that.  Roll Eyes

You must have missed them shipping their ASICs in October of 2012 also. Honest Abe.

But yeah, at this point if anyone ordered $10/gh shipping in February, the customer is an idiot.
Totally agreed.
hero member
Activity: 576
Merit: 500
Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?
So the hosting center isn't going into operation for a year?  I must have missed that.  Roll Eyes

You must have missed them shipping their ASICs in October of 2012 also. Honest Abe.

But yeah, at this point if anyone ordered $10/gh shipping in February, the customer is an idiot.
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.
I am no hypocrite at the very least.

I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?
So the hosting center isn't going into operation for a year?  I must have missed that.  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
PuertoLibre, I would modify that gif to be 10 days per change, not 14.

BFL can not be trusted to meet the demanding challenges of time to market.  But they will still get more suckers I'm sure.  Their production ability is piss poor but their marketing and advertising is ace.
With a 10 Day Period.

With a 10 day period of change....wow the Hosting Package 1Th/s....the income pretty much flatlines at around Early February.

Yikes...

(An understatement)

How can BFL sell something which is obviously not even close to profitable? (BTC wise)

They could fix this by making the hosting contract only 1 month long max, or 14 days. They would have to substantially change things around to make it viable.
You probably don't realize that by May 16 2014 you have difficulty up over 6 billion.  We'd only need something like 54 Petahash to reach that and the total of all estimated preorders today only comes to around 10-14PH.  At that difficulty, anything that cost over $.50 per GH would be unprofitable long term by your table.  But hey, it's not intended to be accurate, it's just BFL you're causing FUD to after all.
I am saying exactly that.

I don't agree with putting a 10 day interval. But someone requested it...because that is what it is in actual reality. (I know bcp19, you don't like reality)

And ultimately, yes, I totally agree with your statement. Anything above 50cents per GH/s is not a long term investment.

Sorry, to be the alarm clock, but it is time to wake up. Hash Fast (one example) is already offering miners at $3.50-ish per Gh/s.

BFL is offering the Monarch at about double that.
---------------------------

So don't look so surprised when I actually agree with your statement my friend. .50cents should be close to what a long term invester in BTC is looking for.
Pages:
Jump to: