These 80% increases month on month are not sustainable.
Indeed, it will likely be (much) more than 80% before it begins to taper, and when that begins, it wont really matter anymore, either you made your profit or you never will.
We're seeing a lot of hash soon, so that makes sense, but by the time we get into 2014, it's going to ease.
LOL. Its only going to get started in 2014. Even if KnC delivers on their promise, thats only a few PH. Nothing compared to whats coming next year.
Many older miners will become unprofitable and get switched off.
Yeah, all of 0.5 PH? You wont even notice that, just like no one noticed when CPUs got switched off, or GPUs, and perhaps FPGA;
And because you're talking about a compounding of hash every month, you would need to ship almost double the amount of miners month on month. So that's like saying everyone will ship 10,000 miners in October, 20,000 in November, 40,000 in December, 80,000 in January, 160,000 in February... The mining market can't sustain that.
So how did it manage to do it so far? With basically only 3 or so companies selling asics, 2 of which that may as well be operating from a garden shed (no offense to the skills and devotion of the people in question). Soon we will have a dozen of providers. Besides, the point is not so much if it will double each month, its were its headed in the short and medium term. 20PH have already been sold and are promised before february. IT doesnt really matter if they get shipped according to an exponential or linear curve. What matter is that/if they will ship.
If it can, the value of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket as people convert a ton of cash to buy these miners.
Nonsense. Sellers are just as likely to convert that back to cash. Last time I checked, TSMC didnt accept bitcoins.
So a lot of these purchases are going to do better than this long term forecasts predict (Although there is always risk)
Remains to be seen. All will depend how fast the best of these asic providers are able to assemble and ship mining rigs. Because that is exactly how fast difficulty will rise and keep rising until we approach 100PH. Price and difficulty are just a result of that execution.