Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years - page 2.

dragonvslinux

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Hash Ribbons confirmed it's 10th buy signal in 9 years yesterday on the Daily chart, make of it what you will:

Here's the zoomed out / back-tested look of 2015-2019 buy signals from this indicator:

The 3 Day chart is also signalling a buy, confirmation would arrive tomorrow with the close of the current candle:

The Weekly chart however, that has been signalling "hash recovery" has been unable to maintain this MA bull-cross:

And for reference sake, the Monthly chart is still signalling capitulation (but is much less reliable indicator on this time-frame it seems):

Longer-term time-frames are yet to confirm this hash recovery, as well as price follow through, but already seeing buy signals on lower times-frames.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: Naficopa on December 26, 2019, 08:02:20 AM

I am not an expert on reading charts, but on the chart in the opening post it looks like the market collapse is yet to come. I think the risk is still in the air and rising up hashrate does not calm me down at all. I think I won't be calm until about mid-February.

To be fair, for now, the miner capitulation appears to of been averted, instead it seems there was only minor capitulation Tongue

FYI, after studying the source code of the indicator, it's clear that one requirement of the buy signal is bullish price movement, hence no buy signal from this indicator yet.

I tested this by using the indicator on a Gold chart (on the Daily and Weekly as an experiment), that has had a recent upwards move in price, which signaled a buy on both charts. Hence if Bitcoin's price were to break upwards, it's confirmed that there would be a buy signal (as long as hash rate holds up as well). Obviously this could come from lower lows, but it's worth paying attention to imo, as this would be the first buy signal since $3,635 on January 11th 2019.

Hence, OP updated from bearish scenario to bullish setup.

Naficopa

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I am not an expert on reading charts, but on the chart in the opening post it looks like the market collapse is yet to come. I think the risk is still in the air and rising up hashrate does not calm me down at all. I think I won't be calm until about mid-February.

dragonvslinux

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Literally flashing green in front of my eyes Shocked

the Weekly is also bull-crossing:

dragonvslinux

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Capitulation is over? I am not 100% sure on the conditions for the buy signal (blue dot), but the sold green dot indicating the bullish MA crossover is very close to this. Will update when it occurs. Here would be the equivalent "point in hash rate" to January 2019 price buy signal (blue dot) based on the Hash Ribbons indicator:

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: exstasie on December 12, 2019, 02:09:13 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on December 12, 2019, 01:30:19 PM

Quote from: exstasie on December 12, 2019, 01:20:13 PM

How do you distinguish between a dip and a crash here?

Last week's difficulty drop was only -0.74%. Prior to that, difficulty actually rose by +1.99%. That doesn't seem indicative of "capitulation" to me. We need an actual crash like Q4 last year for miners to start shutting down en masse.

I think you may be confusing the start of the capitulation with the end of the capitulation cycle. Minder shut off en masse usually at the end of the such a cycle.

You're removing all meaning from the word "capitulation" and making it interchangeable with "bear market." There is no such thing as a capitulation cycle. It refers to a specific part of a bearish market cycle, where massive losses on high volumes are observed.

There is nothing interchangeable about miner capitulation and bear markets, there is only a relative correlation between the two. For example as previously referenced, there was miner capitulation in 2012 and 2013 that arrived during price consolidation periods, without any bearish price movements. Fundamentally, the hash ribbons indicator is based on hash rate, not price that relates to bear markets. Acknowledging certain relationships between the two - miner capitulation and bear markets - might be a good start in order to understand this technical analysis.

exstasie

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on December 12, 2019, 01:30:19 PM

Quote from: exstasie on December 12, 2019, 01:20:13 PM

How do you distinguish between a dip and a crash here?

Last week's difficulty drop was only -0.74%. Prior to that, difficulty actually rose by +1.99%. That doesn't seem indicative of "capitulation" to me. We need an actual crash like Q4 last year for miners to start shutting down en masse.

I think you may be confusing the start of the capitulation with the end of the capitulation cycle. Minder shut off en masse usually at the end of the such a cycle.

You're removing all meaning from the word "capitulation" and making it interchangeable with "bear market." There is no such thing as a capitulation cycle. It refers to a specific part of a bearish market cycle, where massive losses on high volumes are observed.

Miners capitulating at the end of a bear market is exactly what would be expected:

Quote from: dragonvslinux on December 12, 2019, 01:30:19 PM

Regarding the indicator, it is by default based on the 30 and 60 SMA's of hash rate. Therefore, as far as I understand with the coding:

When the 30 initially crosses below the 60 (bearish) that creates the red area whereby the indicator signals the beginning miner capitulation (shown by the title "capitulation").
When the 30 is rising back towards the 60, we see the red area shrink (as shown with the green dots), as capitulation is losing momentum.
When the 30 is again trending downwards away from the 60 (that it previously crossed), we then see the transparent dots signalling continued "miner capitulation".
When the 30 crosses back above the 60, indicating an exhaustion of miner capitulation, we then receive the "Buy Signal" (as shown above in blue)

That's like calling a bearish cross a "capitulation." A bearish cross will always precede capitulation, but capitulation does not always follow from a bearish cross.

Hash rate follows price (though it doesn't correlate perfectly) so watching miners instead of price just seems to further blur the issue.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: exstasie on December 12, 2019, 01:20:13 PM

How do you distinguish between a dip and a crash here?

Last week's difficulty drop was only -0.74%. Prior to that, difficulty actually rose by +1.99%. That doesn't seem indicative of "capitulation" to me. We need an actual crash like Q4 last year for miners to start shutting down en masse.

I think you may be confusing the start of the capitulation with the end of the capitulation cycle. Minder shut off en masse usually at the end of the such a cycle.

Regarding the indicator, it is by default based on the 30 and 60 SMA's of hash rate. Therefore, as far as I understand with the coding:

When the 30 initially crosses below the 60 (bearish) that creates the red area whereby the indicator signals the beginning miner capitulation (shown by the title "capitulation").
When the 30 is rising back towards the 60, we see the red area shrink (as shown with the green dots), as capitulation is losing momentum.
When the 30 is again trending downwards away from the 60 (that it previously crossed), we then see the transparent dots signalling continued "miner capitulation".
When the 30 crosses back above the 60, indicating an exhaustion of miner capitulation, we then receive the "Buy Signal" (as shown above in blue)

Hope that helps things for you sufficiently. Consequently this indicator measure mining difficulty decreasing, but is still based on hash rate nonetheless.
Bare in mind this is only one indicator, that I wouldn't rely on to trade on exclusively. But it appears to be a well back-tested indicator none the less.

exstasie

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How do you distinguish between a dip and a crash here?

Last week's difficulty drop was only -0.74%. Prior to that, difficulty actually rose by +1.99%. That doesn't seem indicative of "capitulation" to me. We need an actual crash like Q4 last year for miners to start shutting down en masse.

dragonvslinux

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Currently back to capitulating regarding miner hash rate, for anyone who cares or understands how this indicator functions:

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: stompix on December 05, 2019, 08:21:38 PM

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 28, 2019, 09:39:35 AM

Quote from: gentlemand on November 28, 2019, 09:26:05 AM

What 2018 miner capitulation?

Glad you asked, because I don't even know what that phrase means--not to mention what significance it has or why it might lead bitcoin to plummet to $3800. That would be one hell of a drop, nearly 50% lower than where it currently is. And if that were to happen, altcoins would probably get hammered even worse.

As usually people trying to find a connection out of nothing when the reality was totally different!

Quote from: gentlemand on December 05, 2019, 07:37:24 PM

This latest difficulty change has levelled out at just over 5% below the ATH hash rate that's despite the price being over 20% lower than it was at that time. Looks like they've taken it in their stride not that anyone should care in the slightest.

And we're still up 20% on a 90 days time frame while the price is down 25% Tongue

I can hardly find a worse indicator other than the number of horses that have taken a dump on the track at Kempton.

In order to provide some historic context to this Hash Ribbons indicator, as well as to highlight this isn't just relevant to 2018, here is a zoomed out view of it's relevance from 2015 to present. Call it repeated coincidence, or alternatively a consistent and relevant pattern that has formed.

Additionally, below is the Weekly view to confirm it's relevance in accurately anticipating price movements. As you can tell, it has been backtested in order to be as useful as possible in determining price movements based on decreasing difficulty levels and their relevant MAs.

I do find your analysis of s17 and s20 releases very relevant, but instead believe it contextualizes how and why mining capitulation occurs, as oppose to disproves it.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on November 28, 2019, 09:39:35 AM

Quote from: gentlemand on November 28, 2019, 09:26:05 AM

What 2018 miner capitulation?

Glad you asked, because I don't even know what that phrase means--not to mention what significance it has or why it might lead bitcoin to plummet to $3800. That would be one hell of a drop, nearly 50% lower than where it currently is. And if that were to happen, altcoins would probably get hammered even worse.

As usually people trying to find a connection out of nothing when the reality was totally different!

Quote from: gentlemand on December 05, 2019, 07:37:24 PM

This latest difficulty change has levelled out at just over 5% below the ATH hash rate that's despite the price being over 20% lower than it was at that time. Looks like they've taken it in their stride not that anyone should care in the slightest.

And we're still up 20% on a 90 days time frame while the price is down 25% Tongue

I can hardly find a worse indicator other than the number of horses that have taken a dump on the track at Kempton.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: fabiorem on December 05, 2019, 11:21:23 AM

Actually I believe the manipulators who are dumping bitcoin want the price to go to $1000. They didnt succeed the last time, so they will try it again.

If that causes them to thicken and engorge then more power to them. Sounds jolly expensive to me.

This latest difficulty change has levelled out at just over 5% below the ATH hash rate that's despite the price being over 20% lower than it was at that time. Looks like they've taken it in their stride not that anyone should care in the slightest.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Naficopa on December 05, 2019, 12:02:05 PM

At this point, a lot depends on how the miners behave. If miners decide to sell BTC stocks (and among them there are certainly a few whales) this can cause big drops which will be a great time for price manipulators to lower the price even more. It looks like we might have one more big dump before halving.

isn't that always the case? miners are just bitcoin investors/holders. you're basically just saying that you expect whales to dump.

the negative sentiment around here is tangible!

Quote from: fabiorem on December 05, 2019, 12:21:18 PM

They will have to sell, to pay mining costs.

we actually don't know the extent to which this is true. we know that bitmain stockpiles their mining rewards for very long periods of time. poorly capitalized and/or leveraged mining operations need to sell to cover overheads, but the industry is becoming increasingly well-capitalized and industrial. so i don't know how useful these assumptions are.

Quote from: fabiorem on December 05, 2019, 12:21:18 PM

The exchanges are to blame for this. If they had a consensus in putting limits to the price, such dumps would not happen.

i prefer free markets to collusion among exchanges.

Naficopa

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Quote from: fabiorem on December 05, 2019, 12:21:18 PM

Quote from: Naficopa on December 05, 2019, 12:02:05 PM

Quote from: fabiorem on December 05, 2019, 11:21:23 AM

Yes. Like I posted two days ago, we are going back to 3k levels.
Earlier on I believed the price would never return there, but after several weeks of lower highs, its evident the price will dump to that level again.

Actually I believe the manipulators who are dumping bitcoin want the price to go to $1000. They didnt succeed the last time, so they will try it again.

Right now, it's not just about manipulators and whales. At this point, a lot depends on how the miners behave. If miners decide to sell BTC stocks (and among them there are certainly a few whales) this can cause big drops which will be a great time for price manipulators to lower the price even more. It looks like we might have one more big dump before halving.

They will have to sell, to pay mining costs.
The exchanges are to blame for this. If they had a consensus in putting limits to the price, such dumps would not happen.

The worst it can happen now its governments stepping in to stop the manipulation, and putting several regulations which would cripple the market even more. People love to go to extremes, so its wild west on one side, and a statist dystopia on the other.

By the looks of it, we will have a replay of the "despair" phase on the classical cycle chart, where the "takeoff" phase was the 3k in August 2017. This will confirm the theory of the four-year cycle is not valid at all, and each cycle would need to be stretched.

I also think that this period will extend. I think the 2020 period will be something like "no mans land" and proper price increases will not start until 2021.

fabiorem

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Quote from: Naficopa on December 05, 2019, 12:02:05 PM

Quote from: fabiorem on December 05, 2019, 11:21:23 AM

Yes. Like I posted two days ago, we are going back to 3k levels.
Earlier on I believed the price would never return there, but after several weeks of lower highs, its evident the price will dump to that level again.

Actually I believe the manipulators who are dumping bitcoin want the price to go to $1000. They didnt succeed the last time, so they will try it again.

Right now, it's not just about manipulators and whales. At this point, a lot depends on how the miners behave. If miners decide to sell BTC stocks (and among them there are certainly a few whales) this can cause big drops which will be a great time for price manipulators to lower the price even more. It looks like we might have one more big dump before halving.

They will have to sell, to pay mining costs.
The exchanges are to blame for this. If they had a consensus in putting limits to the price, such dumps would not happen.

The worst it can happen now its governments stepping in to stop the manipulation, and putting several regulations which would cripple the market even more. People love to go to extremes, so its wild west on one side, and a statist dystopia on the other.

By the looks of it, we will have a replay of the "despair" phase on the classical cycle chart. This will confirm the theory of the four-year cycle is not valid at all, and each cycle would need to be stretched.

Naficopa

hero member

Activity: 2002

Merit: 516

Quote from: fabiorem on December 05, 2019, 11:21:23 AM

Yes. Like I posted two days ago, we are going back to 3k levels.
Earlier on I believed the price would never return there, but after several weeks of lower highs, its evident the price will dump to that level again.

Actually I believe the manipulators who are dumping bitcoin want the price to go to $1000. They didnt succeed the last time, so they will try it again.

Right now, it's not just about manipulators and whales. At this point, a lot depends on how the miners behave. If miners decide to sell BTC stocks (and among them there are certainly a few whales) this can cause big drops which will be a great time for price manipulators to lower the price even more. It looks like we might have one more big dump before halving.

fabiorem

sr. member

Activity: 1400

Merit: 347

Yes. Like I posted two days ago, we are going back to 3k levels.
Earlier on I believed the price would never return there, but after several weeks of lower highs, its evident the price will dump to that level again.

Actually I believe the manipulators who are dumping bitcoin want the price to go to $1000. They didnt succeed the last time, so they will try it again.

dragonvslinux

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 2213

Got stopped out for break-even.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on December 03, 2019, 05:58:48 AM

Break-even stop loss* now in play, represented by the green line at $7486.25.

Onto the next setup, probably this one with a new 3 Day candle opening tomorrow:

A move above $7800 would be very bullish for this chart, especially if it's a green 2 moving above a green 1.

dragonvslinux

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 2213

Break-even stop loss* now in play, represented by the green line at $7486.25. Check OP for entry confirmation. Too easy Roll Eyes

I wasn't going to take this trade until I saw how bullish people's replies were in this thread, so thanks for that metric Grin

Topic highlights:

Quote from: danherbias07 on November 28, 2019, 10:02:34 AM

Stop being an analyst and just take it that the market of bitcoin is far from being in command.

Quote from: barota on November 28, 2019, 01:04:22 PM

i advice you buying at current prices because smart investors alreday starting for buying now

Quote from: exstasie on November 28, 2019, 01:30:19 PM

The OP just copied the 2018 bar pattern and randomly added it to the current chart.

Quote from: Febo on November 28, 2019, 02:31:03 PM

Wake up man!

See related bullish analysis:
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Bitcoin (03/12/19)

Topic: Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years - page 2. (Read 939 times)