Topic: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet - page 26. (Read 119650 times)

You can't mine with vaporware!

Its clear exactly whats been going on from the start.
Hashfast makes a sick deal, sells a crap load of machines when market was at like $120 and gets them in stock prob 3 days later.
Decides to mine for themselves for 2 months and ship late October.
easy money.
then what happens? they see market is now at over $200 and realize that every day they stall they make a crap load more money. so its in their best interest to ship as late as possible and continue to mine for themselves.
Smart no?
they say we promised no matter then end of December so technically they have no reason to give the machines to us.
Every day is more coins in their pocket.
I would have done the same thing in their shoes.
I bet if market was at $50 they would have delivered machines to us early.
win - win for them.
Please tell me if anyone here agrees with me.
Do we actually believe it takes them 2 months to make these machines? or is it more likely they wanted to build them with our money and mine for free for 2 months. And now they are being even greedier and mining bec value has gone up even more?
Think about it.
Nothing we could do.

Uh no.  HashFast just like every other ASIC company is serious about making money.  Perhaps they will accomplish that with the best mining hardware on the planet or perhaps not only time will tell.  Or do you mean to say they will not ship until their miner is the best mining hardware on the planet?

I'll ask them this tomorrow with my next listing of questions

You could always sell the order and reship the MPP when it arrives.  If someone doesn't trust you, you could leave the BTC in escrow until you reship.

The protocol docs indicate the thermal thorttling is handled by the GN processor in high level mode

What is the maximum operating temp?
What is the clock/core throttling temp?
What is the thermal shutdown temp?

hash fast could build and sell solid gold asic's
It wont matter how good the product is, if it wont ROI.

i wish they would change the MPP so its transferable, then i could sell my order an get some of the 45 btc i paid back

You can't counter-troll me!  I counter-trolled you first!   

I have no reason to bash HashFast because, unlike every other ASIC company, they are serious about building the best mining hardware on the planet.

How much are you getting paid by HashFast's competition go troll their threads with your silly, increasingly moronic and desperate FUD?

Who can't stand the heat? I'm having some fun here. It's the positive side of losing money like a fool, to troll the trollers.

If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.
Cheer up and have another fucking pizza.

Sure. Did i say anything about HF?
What's funny is you bashing every other competitor but HF. I've yet to get how much you are paid. Could you please repeat me that? You know, my english is bad...

If HashFast has our chips and is mining with them, that would be a serious problem worth of a Scam Accusation.

But there is no evidence of that being true (your irrational paranoia doesn't count as evidence).

It's funny to watch you become so desperate to bash HF that you're willing to stoop to such laughably bizarre tactics.

We can't even have a bit of perfectly normal variance without you eagerly mistaking it for an opportunity to spread lies about your nemesis.

Such fixation isn't healthy. 

You should trim the neckbeard and get out more.  Give Mom a chance to clean the basement, feed the cats, and do your laundry.   

It looks like that someone had their chips at the end of this month and was able to bring everything online in 24 hours from start to finish.
Let me guess...

Hit 4500 for a few minutes earlier.  Looks like it may have only been good luck though. Luckily.

groooowing

Network total 4272.397 Thash/s

Speed (TH/s)   4081.00  Ding!

i know, but the point is that it doesnt matter. Bitfury sells its chips at whatever price the market can bare and will decide on ordering more wafers solely on their marginal cost vs expected sales or mining revenue. Whatever their NRE was, at this point its irrelevant (unless you are bitfury and you are calculating your overall profits). And what most people dont grasp, assuming constant BTC price, every chip you sell or deploy, directly and proportionally reduces the market value of your next chip (and all already installed chips). So prices *must* come down Thats unlike any other market Im aware off. And also why preordering is so profitable for vendors, since it hides this value reduction.


I dont know if they will all go down that route, but the market dynamics dont change fundamentally whether these companies sell only chips, or if they do everything in house. ITs a trade off between efficiency of specialization/competition and efficiency of scale. Its just that its easier to understand what will happen if you break it down in to pieces and consider asic vendors only selling asics.

Actually, in BitFury's case the numbers are way better since thats not a 28nm chip and the NRE's are much lower for 55nm than they are for 28nm... just like, when 14nm is available the NREs will be much higher than they are for 28nm... etc

anyway, maybe you're right.,. maybe after knc, hashfast and cointerra have made a bunch of their boxed systems, maybe their business will transition into a chip selling business and they will just churn them out for other board makers to sell on to customers...

selling chips sure is more profitable than selling boxes... so these asic companies should definitely get into selling chips as soon as they can.  however, these newer, bigger chips (knc, hf and ct) are more sophisticated than the previous little chips, and the circuits and cooling systems for the 'big hot chips' are not as strait forward as the systems for the little cool chips.... which is why these companies have to make their own boxes.. at least for the initial production runs... and then they can hand over their reference designs to the other board companies to start competing on cost and make cheaper boxes.

-- Jez

Really, the big cost is the mask set. Once you have taped out and gotten your maskset, that is about the best example of a sunk cost I can think off. If that isnt one, I dont know what is.

Now of course these companies want to make a profit on their investments, which is why they will not get started if they dont think they can recoup the NRE, but once they decide they can, they will do what every company does: try to maximize profits. Right now your "$100 asic" can be sold for >$1000 because difficulty is so low and miners so delusional, so that is exactly what they do (and what made them decide to plunge down millions on the tape out). Not because the maskset was so expensive, but because they can.

But fast forward a few months, when difficulty is several billion and sales at the $1000 point dry up. What do you think is best, selling almost nothing or selling $100 chips for $500? You know, those kinds of margins would still even make intel green with envy.  And what when sales dry up at $500? Because they will sooner or later, you cant keep selling and shipping $500 asics without pushing up difficulty and thereby reducing mining profitability. So would you stop producing when you can still sell $100 chips for $250? Or $150? Maybe at $110 or $105 its not worth bothering with anymore, and some vendors may instead quit the business, but thats only when you reached near marginal cost and NRE is long forgotten. What you describe is one of the reasons you cant buy chips anywhere near marginal costs today (except for that batch of avalons, which may have been auctioned well below marginal cost, at $2 per asic for a complete miner), but it says nothing about where the market is headed when difficulty keeps rising.

Other example; lets take Bitfury. The have got their maskset. Lets assume for argument sake they also spent $5M on it and they have no intentions of doing a 28nm shrink. Will they keep ordering new wafers? As long as they can sell these chips, or mine with them for (substantially) more than they cost to produce (lets say $5), why wouldnt they?Why not sell these $5 chips on reels at $20 or even $10 when $20 becomes too much ?  Because the NRE was $5M they would rather not make a profit anymore? That makes no sense. THey may even end up selling below $5 if they ordered too much, just to get rid of the overstock.  $3 per chip is still better than $0. What does NRE have to do with that? What would it change if their maskset had only cost $500K or $50M ? Nothing, except when calculating their net profits. It simply doesnt factor in pricing or production decisions anymore, as its a sunk cost.


These upcoming 28nm chips are most likely the last ones we will see for many years. No one is likely to invest $3-5M on a new maskset 12 months from here, because you would be competing against chips that sold barely above cost and recouping the NRE would be almost impossible. And even if someone would, would they  be charging $1000 for their asic "because their NRE was x million", or will they charge as much as they can, which will only be  a fraction by then?  This is the end game and vendors will keep selling these chips (or deploy them) as long its worth the trouble of doing so. And that can only result in far more than 5-10PH for most of them.

you talk of $5m like its nothing.  you say its sunk cost like you can forget about it.   The important thing is that its cash thats required to be paid, BEFORE, the chip goes into production... thus its cash that must be raised, somehow... which in the bitcoin world is via pre-orders since there is no other way of raising cash... as no investor is going to invest $5m+ in a risky venture like a bitcoin mining venture.

actually, one company did successfully raise the $5m needed to make their own asic without taking pre-orders - 21e6 LLC.   http://www.whogotfunded.com/deals/182363-21e6-llc

but no one else that i know of has successfully raised vc funding to make an asic chip, which means they must go through the pain and heartache for all concerned of taking pre-orders, til they hit the $5m level, and then they can tape-out.  actually, lets use the number of $4m (nre of $3m and $1m design cost)

And even after they've taped out.... the nre costs are not 'sunk costs' - because they haven't been spent yet.  Sunk costs are costs in the past that have been written off - but in the bitcoin world, no company has sunk costs.  The cost of the NRE must be raised in order to go into production - and because it is extremely low volume production the entire nre and other up front costs must be amortised or attributed to a very small number of chips manufactured.  we're not talking millions of chips like nvidia/intel/amd make...  we're not even talking hundreds of thousands of chips.  we're just talking of low numbers of thousands of chips... i.e., just a few tens of wafers.   And thats why the $4m up front costs will significantly and directly affect the price of each asic.

lets say, for arguments' sake that a 28nm wafer might cost $15,000 (in low volume, remember).  A Wafer is approx 70,000 mm² and a hashfast chip is 324mm² thus the max yield is 216 asics... but in practice, the yield will be less so lets say you can reliably get 150 good asics on each wafer.  Then that means that although the hard cost of each asic is approx $100 each, plus packaging/substrate costs... so lets round that up to $120-140 for a decent package that can handle a lot of power and is good for heat dissipation.   Now, since you may only make, say 10,000 asics in its short lifetime... (that would be approx 5 PH!) you have to divide the NRE and all other up front costs, and attribute them into the cost of each asic that you make - since none of the NRE payment applies to any future asic so its attribution is limited only to the asics you actually make... and $4m divided by 10,000 is another contribution of $400 for each and every asic.   YES, that *is* the way it works... you don't ignore your up front costs.  They are very real and they have to be amortised into each and every asic you make (since the volumes are so low, it becomes a significant part of the cost of each asic)

If you get to make more.. lets say you make 10 PH.. then you halve the amount, per asic, that your NRE costs will be attributed to each asic.

Thus the actual cost of each 400/500 GH asic is actually just over $500 (assuming 5 PH in total are made) and $300 (assuming 10 PH in total are made).

of course, the numbers get lower, the more asics you make...   but at 5-10 PH, per asic company, thats already a lot of PH's and there's a lot of asic companies so i think its unrealistic that any one company is going to sell more than 5-10 PH's on their own, in the lifetime of any one asic.

-- Jez