HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet - page 34.

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

Quote from: SolarSilver on October 21, 2013, 04:46:33 AM

Quote from: Geo_log on October 21, 2013, 03:34:41 AM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 07:43:57 PM

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

The network allows up to a 300% increase (and a 75% decline) per adjustment. A max difficulty jump has happened a few times at the start of the "GPU era". I doubt we will ever see a 400% increase again because the network is so large now. With the network at 3 PH/s it would need to increase by 9 PH/s within one difficulty adjustment. Due to timing it probably would need to be be more like 12 to 18 PH being deployed within a week. That would be like shipping 6,000 BabyJets or KNC Jupiter's every day.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: mgio on October 21, 2013, 11:24:42 AM

I'd rather take the one that is more accurate as of now and make my own extrapolations on how it will evolve. I realize it will likely be higher than 361 since KNC and others are still shipping and I'm taking that into account. bcw would have no way of knowing if they suddenly stopped though and the rate wasn't going to continue to rise.

Im not sure, but I dont think BCW assumes exponential growth either. Thats why I think the actual number will be higher even, probably closer to 450M.
But what blockexplorer seems to do is assume there is no trend and that hashrate will hold steady at the current level, and thats just not gonna happen. Even if KnC (and everyone else) stops shipping today, it will probably take those 5 days for all these rigs to be deployed.

crumbs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: mgio on October 21, 2013, 03:50:22 PM

So they should be getting chips this week, correct? Still a slim chance they could make the deadline it seems. Has there been any word from them? They still are insisting they will ship by the end of the month, correct?

Quote from: Amy Woodward on October 17, 2013, 06:31:23 PM

...
And, as of a few days ago, ... ... it looks like we're probably going to slip, by about a week.

Ironically, not because of the silicon, even though that is the part of the system that takes the longest to manufacture. That's going through the foundry smoothly. But we ran into a delay sourcing one of our other components.

We've now found an alternative source. But that delay means it'll be challenging for us to ship finished systems before the end of October.

It's disappointing, but unfortunately these things happen. I'm glad we've made it this far through the process, and are still so close to our target date.
...

TL;DR: NO. The packing popcorn order fell through -- interns have been hired to crumple newspapers. These things happen.

mgio

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

So they should be getting chips this week, correct? Still a slim chance they could make the deadline it seems. Has there been any word from them? They still are insisting they will ship by the end of the month, correct?

Syke

legendary

Activity: 3878

Merit: 1193

Quote from: Puppet on October 21, 2013, 10:36:55 AM

Blockexplorer and allchains.info just do linear extrapolation. When there is a constant growth (exponential increase), they always understate the change. Just keep an eye on them, day after day (assuming the growth keeps up) you will see their estimate go up and eventually it will reach close to what dot-bit and bcw have said all along.

IM not entirely sure how dot-bit and bitcoinwisdom do their calculation, but they have been quite correct the last few changes I checked, even from an early stage. IN fact bitcoinwisdom even charts their past prediction and how it evolved (second chart, green line), and thats usually a fairly straight line, meaning, virtually no change in their prediction.

For the historical record, right now blockchain predicts 361169157, bcw predicts 402,822,686.
May the best one win

We're running close to 9 blocks per hour, so 50% increase is about right. Next update should break 400M.

Sitarow

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1047

Quote from: Puppet on October 21, 2013, 04:51:54 AM

Quote from: SolarSilver on October 21, 2013, 04:46:33 AM

Quote from: Geo_log on October 21, 2013, 03:34:41 AM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 07:43:57 PM

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

~~http://bitcoin difficulty.com/~~

That site just pulls data from dot-bit page which is down. You can refresh it all day, it wont update. MOreover they pull that data from dot-bit without attribution, then put a banner add on it for their own profit. Please delete that bookmark, and add these;

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php (currently down)
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (Estimated Next Difficulty: 401,706,911 (+50.04%))

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

The max increase or decrease to network difficulty is 4x and is in the code.

mgio

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: Puppet on October 21, 2013, 10:36:55 AM

Blockexplorer and allchains.info just do linear extrapolation. When there is a constant growth (exponential increase), they always understate the change. Just keep an eye on them, day after day (assuming the growth keeps up) you will see their estimate go up and eventually it will reach close to what dot-bit and bcw have said all along.

IM not entirely sure how dot-bit and bitcoinwisdom do their calculation, but they have been quite correct the last few changes I checked, even from an early stage. IN fact bitcoinwisdom even charts their past prediction and how it evolved (second chart, green line), and thats usually a fairly straight line, meaning, virtually no change in their prediction.

For the historical record, right now blockchain predicts 361169157, bcw predicts 402,822,686.
May the best one win

I'd rather take the one that is more accurate as of now and make my own extrapolations on how it will evolve. I realize it will likely be higher than 361 since KNC and others are still shipping and I'm taking that into account. bcw would have no way of knowing if they suddenly stopped though and the rate wasn't going to continue to rise.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Blockexplorer and allchains.info just do linear extrapolation. When there is a constant growth (exponential increase), they always understate the change. Just keep an eye on them, day after day (assuming the growth keeps up) you will see their estimate go up and eventually it will reach close to what dot-bit and bcw have said all along.

IM not entirely sure how dot-bit and bitcoinwisdom do their calculation, but they have been quite correct the last few changes I checked, even from an early stage. IN fact bitcoinwisdom even charts their past prediction and how it evolved (second chart, green line), and thats usually a fairly straight line, meaning, virtually no change in their prediction.

For the historical record, right now blockexplorer predicts 361169157, bcw predicts 402,822,686.
May the best one win

mgio

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: Puppet on October 21, 2013, 04:51:54 AM

Quote from: SolarSilver on October 21, 2013, 04:46:33 AM

Quote from: Geo_log on October 21, 2013, 03:34:41 AM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 07:43:57 PM

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

~~http://bitcoin difficulty.com/~~

That site just pulls data from dot-bit page which is down. You can refresh it all day, it wont update. MOreover they pull that data from dot-bit without attribution, then put a banner add on it for their own profit. Please delete that bookmark, and add these;

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php (currently down)
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (Estimated Next Difficulty: 401,706,911 (+50.04%))

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

I don't think that bitcoinwisdom page is accurate. http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate has been far more accurate. Not sure what method they are using to calculate it.

SolarSilver

legendary

Activity: 1112

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Puppet on October 21, 2013, 04:51:54 AM

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

Wow. We're fucked.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: SolarSilver on October 21, 2013, 04:46:33 AM

Quote from: Geo_log on October 21, 2013, 03:34:41 AM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 07:43:57 PM

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

~~http://bitcoin difficulty.com/~~

That site just pulls data from dot-bit page which is down. You can refresh it all day, it wont update. MOreover they pull that data from dot-bit without attribution, then put a banner add on it for their own profit. Please delete that bookmark, and add these;

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php (currently down)
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (Estimated Next Difficulty: 401,706,911 (+50.04%))

And yes lol, 50% is within the rules. 400% is the limit I believe, and has been reached before.

SolarSilver

legendary

Activity: 1112

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Geo_log on October 21, 2013, 03:34:41 AM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 07:43:57 PM

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

Not sure if a 50% jump would be within the rules of the Bitcoin Network, because those 2016 (2015) blocks would just breeze through.

This value looks a bit high: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

How about Next difficulty (estimate): 285,052,471 (+6%)

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

Geo_log

hero member

Activity: 505

Merit: 512

El sueño de la razón produce monstruos

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 07:43:57 PM

Next weekend we'll probably be at 340mil diff

- 400mil, actually.

arorts

sr. member

Activity: 408

Merit: 250

Ok, well. It's now October 20th, the lower end of the shipping range they promised and we haven't heard of any shipments coming this week. So it seems that they will start shipping at the last minute of October 31st, which is a full difficulty jump that could make or break ROI.

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

Quote from: pwnyboy on October 20, 2013, 01:11:39 PM

It would certainly stand to reason, since they're apparently using a one-off run of Seasonics with a reversed fan in the newly-designed Sierras.

Unsubstantiated claims.

HF reported signing a deal with SeaSonic. The deal said nothing about a custom run.
Some people have speculated the PSU fan operates in reverse. HF hasn't stated that.

Extremely likely the PSU are the same exact SeaSonic models you can buy from newegg.

pwnyboy

full member

Activity: 125

Merit: 100

Quote from: RoadStress on October 20, 2013, 12:31:33 PM

What exactly are they trying to acquire from that supplier?

There's been no official statement. I made the leap, previously in this thread, that it could've been something as stupid as PSUs. But they won't tell us. It would certainly stand to reason, since they're apparently using a one-off run of Seasonics with a reversed fan in the newly-designed Sierras.

How about it Hashfast?

RoadStress

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1007

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 20, 2013, 07:11:01 AM

Quote from: crumbs on October 20, 2013, 07:05:21 AM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 19, 2013, 08:26:42 PM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 08:16:05 PM

KNC took their lumps, not sure what else you can say there.

But I think you might have a sore spot here if nothing shows up by next weekend

why is it so hard to believe that they are going to be late due to circumstances out of their control? which company, including KNC, delivered on time?

as i said before, i should be the one upset as an order holder in HF. what's your beef?

The thing is, as Amy helpfully pointed out, the delays are not due to silicon. In other words, they've failed with some other aspect of design or failed in some other equally lulworthy way, like designing their boards around parts they're unable to source. Imagine if KNC delayed shipping because the standoffs on their cases didn't line up with the holes in the boards, or the screws they ordered had the wrong thread pitch Shocked

It's *THAT* sort of incompetence we're talking about.

As far as you having more cause to be upset? Sure. Though it's as satisfying as seing a used car salesman getting stuck with one of the lemons he tried to push Cheesy

AFAIK it is a supplier that is having the difficulty delivering as per their projected time line.

What exactly are they trying to acquire from that supplier?

crumbs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 20, 2013, 07:11:01 AM

Quote from: crumbs on October 20, 2013, 07:05:21 AM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 19, 2013, 08:26:42 PM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 08:16:05 PM

KNC took their lumps, not sure what else you can say there.

But I think you might have a sore spot here if nothing shows up by next weekend

why is it so hard to believe that they are going to be late due to circumstances out of their control? which company, including KNC, delivered on time?

as i said before, i should be the one upset as an order holder in HF. what's your beef?

The thing is, as Amy helpfully pointed out, the delays are not due to silicon. In other words, they've failed with some other aspect of design or failed in some other equally lulworthy way, like designing their boards around parts they're unable to source. Imagine if KNC delayed shipping because the standoffs on their cases didn't line up with the holes in the boards, or the screws they ordered had the wrong thread pitch Shocked

It's *THAT* sort of incompetence we're talking about.

As far as you having more cause to be upset? Sure. Though it's as satisfying as seing a used car salesman getting stuck with one of the lemons he tried to push Cheesy

AFAIK it is a supplier that is having the difficulty delivering as per their projected time line.

With difficulty climbing the way it is, finding out that your supplier can't deliver is like being wheeled into an emergency room & finding out that the doctors haven't been hired yet Cheesy

What would you say if KNC had everything ready & failed to ship on time because their case supplier didn't ship? What kind of a n00b mistake is that?

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: crumbs on October 20, 2013, 07:05:21 AM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 19, 2013, 08:26:42 PM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 08:16:05 PM

KNC took their lumps, not sure what else you can say there.

But I think you might have a sore spot here if nothing shows up by next weekend

why is it so hard to believe that they are going to be late due to circumstances out of their control? which company, including KNC, delivered on time?

as i said before, i should be the one upset as an order holder in HF. what's your beef?

The thing is, as Amy helpfully pointed out, the delays are not due to silicon. In other words, they've failed with some other aspect of design or failed in some other equally lulworthy way, like designing their boards around parts they're unable to source. Imagine if KNC delayed shipping because the standoffs on their cases didn't line up with the holes in the boards, or the screws they ordered had the wrong thread pitch Shocked

It's *THAT* sort of incompetence we're talking about.

As far as you having more cause to be upset? Sure. Though it's as satisfying as seing a used car salesman getting stuck with one of the lemons he tried to push Cheesy

AFAIK it is a supplier that is having the difficulty delivering as per their projected time line.

crumbs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 19, 2013, 08:26:42 PM

Quote from: DPoS on October 19, 2013, 08:16:05 PM

KNC took their lumps, not sure what else you can say there.

But I think you might have a sore spot here if nothing shows up by next weekend

why is it so hard to believe that they are going to be late due to circumstances out of their control? which company, including KNC, delivered on time?

as i said before, i should be the one upset as an order holder in HF. what's your beef?

The thing is, as Amy helpfully pointed out, the delays are not due to silicon. In other words, they've failed with some other aspect of design or failed in some other equally lulworthy way, like designing their boards around parts they're unable to source. Imagine if KNC delayed shipping because the standoffs on their cases didn't line up with the holes in the boards, or the screws they ordered had the wrong thread pitch Shocked

It's *THAT* sort of incompetence we're talking about.

As far as you having more cause to be upset? Sure. Though it's as satisfying as seing a used car salesman getting stuck with one of the lemons he tried to push Cheesy

Topic: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet - page 34. (Read 119650 times)