Topic: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet - page 38. (Read 119669 times)

The speed was 200 TH when the KNC miners, just coming online now, were purchased.  Now it's not 400, or even 4,000, it's 2,418,00.  Two million, four hundred and eighteen thousand.  I'm not sure a worst case scenarios within 2x of the starting rate represent anything but wishful thinking.  For KNC buyers, it turned out to be over 1,000x.

When you buy a miner 3 months in advance of putting it online, it's virtually impossible to know if it will be mining at a loss.  Though if history of ASIC mining is any indication, you will lose money.

Finally, the shovel-dealer analogy is a bit flawed:  If the gullible gold diggers had to wait for 3 months to a year before getting the shovels they've paid for, the analogy would be apt.  Though those shovel dealers would have been lynched, their womenfolk raped & their stores torched if one of them dared to make such an offer.

So, just like KnC?

In other words, expect delays. 2 more weeks(tm)? Say it ain't so HF...

It can't but you know difficulty isn't going down so when the network is 80 PH/s BEFORE you place your order and even conservatively it will be 100 PH best case scenario and 125+ PH worst case scenario before you receive your hardware that is going to weigh in on the minds of buyers. 

We plan to receive the chips during the week of October 20th.  Exact date depends on variable physical processes at TSMC.

I haven't heard any news about hosting, but we are planning on offering it and I'll let everyone know as soon as I get an update.

Any news about hosting ? When you plan to receive the chips exactly ?

Please let us know if you are going to offer hosting service or not, because I got at least 2 hosting offers pending and I would like to give them an answer

Well, I just continued my analysis and decided that an end-of-queue October Jupiter is pointless and cancelled the order, so if you pick a company that is refund and customer friendly, then money is not sunk. The point, which I'll repeat one final time, is that the timing of delivery is key to the speed of return and the size of return. You are dependent on all who have come become before you, and this is always a function of uncertainty with a pre-order. And queues tend to not be processed as efficiently as promised. This initial favourable window hit can far offset, delay and even nullify the "long tail" efficiency rewards you talk off. Maybe one day the "excitement" will be extracted, and the returns will be marginal and slow, but this won't happen until the premium that manufacturers are now charging has dried up.

The irony of it all is that faster and faster network speed doesn't benefit the Bitcoin network in any way. Above a certain count of nodes the network distribution is safe. This threshold was satisfactorily met when people were CPU mining, arguably more so, as it was more widely accessible. Litecoin nearly has it right, but scrypt isn't quite GPU unfriendly enough.

I'm retiring from this thread and forum section. Mining is for Emperors who need something pointed out to them about their attire :-)

Thanks for the thoughtful and considered debate and good luck!

Fig. 1 depicts the difficulty at the time of purchase vs difficulty at the time same miners go online.  Please tell me how the Day 0 profitability could have been calculated.


*Three months' wait is typical for mining gear sales.  KNC is not an outlier.

Why would you argue over that?  Both of those cases are sunk money already.   What matters is future sales and future profitability.   Someone who already bought from HF or KNC hopefully already did the analysis months ago and their future is already set.

No none of that was correct.   I said hashrate growth will slow and those that have high efficiency (both J/GH and $ per kWh) will be able to remain profitable for an extended period of time.   Will it be 10 PH/s? 20 PH/s? 50 PH/s? 150 PH/s?  I have no idea.  Never claimed to be able to predict the future.   

However unless you think people will continue to dump money into hardware that is DAY 0 UNPROFITABLE the difficulty growth curve will bend.  Day 0 profitability is different then difficulty rising too fast and potentially being unprofitable in the future it is more black and white and even the most delusional miner can do simple math like "at current difficulty I make $20 per day, spend $15 in electricity and thus the break even point for my $5,000 miner is 2.5 years even if difficulty doesn't rise ... so I don't think I will buy today".


BTW 14nm & 11nm are a non issue.  There won't be a 14nm SHA-256 chip until 2018 at the earliest.  There likely won't be a 22/20nm ASIC chip before 2015 and that is optimistic.   It takes roughly 3 years before a new process can even equal the cost of a prior process.   Worrying about 14nm today is just silly.

So shipping still by the end of this month?

Thanks for the reply.

Chips are still on schedule.   No delays so far.   Very close now!

Are we there yet?  No, but it won't be much longer.

Any updates on CHIPS or BOARDS??

or TIME LINE?

or DELAYS?

Ok, I'll admit I was mixing up my difficulty and hashrate. Easily done when dealing with so many zeroes. 139.69 is our magic number. It would be a lot more useful if the mining calculators had a hashrate column next to the difficulty one to make it easier to do a reality check.


Well my prediction was 90 days, that's when the MPP kicks in isn't it? But yes, A HF rig won't be at break even electrical cost, but neither will a Jupiter.


so we get to a point where realistically, 10-20 PH/s is feasible in the next 3 months if Cointerra deliver what they promise in their business plan:

https://picostocks.com/businessplan/31

And everyone else chips in with their offerings and people still live in hope of making more than they spent.

What we end up arguing over is whether the difference between a 550GH/s Jupiter hashing from October 1st (if you were lucky) until day one of Hashfast's delivery is greater than the difference between a 550 GH/s Jupiter hashing 90 days from that day and up to 2TH/s of Babyjet's hashing at a much higher difficulty but with greater efficiency as the tail end kicks in.

It's a tricky calculation. I don't know the answer. The mining profit calculators should work backwards from a point in the future where you can fix the likely hashrate (a more logical figure to miners). The mining manufacturers should open their order books and make the market transparent...

Despite all this, I can't say for certain which unit will have made the most money in six or twelve months. I still think with this generation of ASIC, lead time in delivery has a greater effect on reaching ROI than power efficiency or delayed delivery of extra hashrate. Prove me wrong with numbers, or wait six months and show me your pool payout screenshot :-)

Maybe the next round will be different.

Let's take this one step at a time.

"Geographic location" (industrial rates) is a part of this discussion if it factors into the hashrate endgame.  It does.  If my chips are twice as power-hungry as yours, but my power costs me half as much (including cooling), then we're neck and neck.  Industrial mines can certainly pick their location.  If you don't feel that your retail rig is competing with industrial mines for a slice of the caek, tell me why.

HashFast & co will certainly have a backlog of pre-orders stretching a few months into the past once you reach your "just efficient enough 4 mah rig to mine" sweetspot.  Those miners will come online regardless of overall profitability.  The situation today is a perfect example -- miners are expecting gear, months into the future, that they (should) realize will not break even.

Edit @ Cypher:  You're talking as if Hashfast already had their chip in hand, and the power projections have proven correct.  They do not & they haven't, respectively.

the only logical "turn-off sequence" would place HF at the end of the line.

while Cointerra appears to have similar specs there still is no signs of a tapeout.

Not trolling, but finding it hard to see what, precisely, you are objecting to in the text you've quoted.  I'll break it down for clarity:

1.  If BTC exchange rate grows, mining gear remains profitable and stays online longer.  
2.  If a more efficient chip comes on the market, mining will remain profitable at a greater difficulty.

I see nothing open to debate in ether statement.  Each one is apparent on its face.
As far as boring, low-margin games go, that may or may not be the case.  I'm not arguing that.  Available data shows, on the other hand, that while mining has stopped being profitable for small miners a long time ago, most have continued to mine at a loss & continued buying gear that's virtually guaranteed to perpetuate this state.  I thank the miracle of pre-order sales, unchecked greed, & basic human inability to grasp exponential growth.

There's really not that much new here.

Geographic location of the miners (regarding the electricity price) is not what was discussed. It may easily turn out to be third-world game, where electricity is dirt-cheap. Such are many "dirty" industries. HashFast may not "decide that they've made enough money", but nobody will buy miners from any company knowing machines would be unprofitable from day 1. Agian, not happening in a moment and on/off simplified like this, but some difficulty "extreme slowdown" (not freeze) is coming, when everything non-efficient is turned off.

So to boil it down to a prediction, you imagine the hashrate will stabilise around 10-20 PH/s and your Babyjet with MPP (2 TH/s) will make somewhere between $75-$150/month for a period of a year or so, beginning 90 days from Hashfast's initial delivery, assuming no one significantly beats Hashfast's power usage (via 14nm or 11nm chips)?

this is correct.  and there is really no way to model when it will occur.  as someone said above, the truth will play out somewhere in the middle of a never ending exponential ramp in hashrate and an outright crash from some negative event.

the only way to play this and still have a chance to be in the game is to buy the most efficient, cost effective hardware you can with an MPP in place to hopefully provide a cushion.