Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 40. (Read 290235 times)

Actually, that's the point at which BDD ends (when the NAV/U reaches .0002 BTC) for the end game via Increase. For the end-game via decrease, MINE dividends are just paid out until there's no amount left to pay out any longer. Check out the End Game scenarios at the end of the OP.


No problem; it is a bit of a tricky monster - let me know if you have any specific questions and I'll be happy to help.


Period 31, Day 5 Report - February 14, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 180.07138631

Total Units: 32788

NAV/U: BTC 0.00549199

Thanks @twentyseventy, for just pointing me to read the first few pages (I was just being lazy to ask for the ELI5 ). It's a bit tricky to get into it and all the calculations but I think I get it, or at least most of it. I did some calculations myself and as said before this is very interesting stuff. Even if you don't speculate on the difficulty, but just keeping an eye on the numbers and calculate what is more profitable. Definitely have a go/play at this. Cheers!

Well i got a better idea of things now then i did before thanks for explaining, but what's with the .0002 as the limit? Something special about that #?

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Yeah, I thought so, but it looks so damn interesting. I will read it a few times more.

To be honest, there really isn't. If you read the OP and some of the subsequent pages, there's some good information there. It's really meant to be more of a sophisticated speculation tool instead of something that everyone can pick up and use easily.


Everything always lasts until it doesn't   

I think you're asking that, as long as there are funds in the balance post dividends, should there continue to be dividends being paid out. Simply yes, there should be - you just need to make sure to pay attention to the NAV/U (the net asset value per unit).

When the NAV/U drops below .0002 BTC (0.2mBTC) then the last payment will be issued to holders of MINE (or MINE/SELL, but it's looking like the End-Game by Decrease/Stagnation might be the way that this will end).

Currently, there are 181.77507234 BTC in the fund and the dividend is 0.00005656 per day, being paid out per unit to 32761 Units.

This equals 32761 * .00005656 = 1.85296216 BTC being paid out per day, so there are 181.77507234 / 1.85296216 = 98.09 Days left of dividends left on hand to be paid out (at the current dividend rate).

The actual amount of days will fluctuate with future difficulty changes and new sales/redemption of EXCH (each sale or redemption of EXCH contributes a small amount to the fund).

Technically, there could be 181 BTC on hand, but if it's split between a lot of units (say 905,000), then you're at the End-Game's final payout (181BTC / 905000 = .0002)

Hope this helps

Ok... so i am a little confused (i know it happens alot )  but as long as the post balance dividends are kept , shouldn't the days left continue until they are exhausted?



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Is there an ELI5 about all of this.

Period 31, Day 4 Report - February 13, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 181.77507234

Total Units: 32761

NAV/U: BTC 0.00554852

Period 31, Day 3 Report - February 12, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 180.72528417

Total Units: 32246

NAV/U: BTC 0.00560457

Period 31, Day 2 Report - February 11, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 179.24131084

Total Units: 31665

NAV/U: BTC 0.00566054

Period 31, Day 1 Report - February 10, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 178.70386533

Total Units: 31260

NAV/U: BTC 0.00571669

And it is at .000570000.

Well, B.MINE shouldn't be priced more than .000577286 (!), excluding the small amount contributed to the NAV/U from future sales of EXCH and possible buybacks.

Nice. Back over 100 days. The market has been pricing in this new dividend and is about right on target now. Maybe B.MINE is a little undervalued but then again there isn´t that much term left.

Period 31, Day 0 Report - February 9, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 178.37581267

Total Units: 30899

NAV/U: BTC 0.00577286

Period 30 End Report - February 9, 2015

Previous Units              27554
EXCH Sold                   3385
Less Buybacks              40
New Total Units        30899

Previous Balance          182.32774652
Price per EXCH             Variable
Gross Sales of EXCH      21.34977245

Less Fees                    0.08537500
Less Dividends              22.81210320
Less Buybacks              0.23797536
Less Mgmt Fee              0.41860530
Net Balance            180.12346011

End of Period NAV/U     0.00582942

New Difficulty                  44,455,415,962
New Daily Dividend         0.00005656
New Reserve per Unit        0.01131200

New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01131200 - 0.00582942 = -0.00548258


SELL Dividend                 None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)

Days of Dividends On Hand    ~103

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

Period 30, Day 12 Report - February 8, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 176.97560897

Total Units: 30362

NAV/U: BTC 0.00582885

Period 30, Day 11 Report - February 7, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 176.08874010

Total Units: 29900

NAV/U: BTC 0.00588925

Period 30, Day 10 Report - February 6, 2015

Balance Post Divs: BTC 176.27073076

Total Units: 29626

NAV/U: BTC 0.00594986

Missed div scheduling today; it will either be paid shortly or at 1PM.