Period 27, Day 0 Report - December 17, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 181.33746939
Total Units: 20065
NAV/U: BTC 0.00903750
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 47. (Read 290305 times)
Period 26 End Report - December 17, 2014
Previous Units 19677
EXCH Sold 388
Less Buybacks 0
New Total Units 20065
Previous Balance 196.27975616
Price per EXCH 0.01027433
Gross Sales of EXCH 3.98644004
Less Fees 0.01594576
Less Dividends 17.55683325
Less Buybacks 0.00000000
Less Mgmt Fee 0.07740600
Net Balance 182.61601119
End of Period NAV/U 0.00910122
New Difficulty 39,457,671,307
New Daily Dividend 0.00006372
New Reserve per Unit 0.01274400
New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01274400 - 0.00910122 = -0.00364278
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)
Days of Dividends On Hand ~142.9
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Starting Price 0.00937426
As mentioned, I will be updating the EXCH Sales price each day at the Daily NAV/U + 3% for a trial run this Period.
Previous Units 19677
EXCH Sold 388
Less Buybacks 0
New Total Units 20065
Previous Balance 196.27975616
Price per EXCH 0.01027433
Gross Sales of EXCH 3.98644004
Less Fees 0.01594576
Less Dividends 17.55683325
Less Buybacks 0.00000000
Less Mgmt Fee 0.07740600
Net Balance 182.61601119
End of Period NAV/U 0.00910122
New Difficulty 39,457,671,307
New Daily Dividend 0.00006372
New Reserve per Unit 0.01274400
New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01274400 - 0.00910122 = -0.00364278
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)
Days of Dividends On Hand ~142.9
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Starting Price 0.00937426
As mentioned, I will be updating the EXCH Sales price each day at the Daily NAV/U + 3% for a trial run this Period.
Period 26, Day 13 Report - December 16, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 182.61601119
Total Units: 20065
NAV/U: BTC 0.00910122
Again, please see note from yesterday regarding EXCH ask calculations and the report for tomorrow.
Balance Post Divs: BTC 182.61601119
Total Units: 20065
NAV/U: BTC 0.00910122
Again, please see note from yesterday regarding EXCH ask calculations and the report for tomorrow.
Period 26, Day 12 Report - December 15, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 183.86706271
Total Units: 20064
NAV/U: BTC 0.00916402
Wasn't able to log in yesterday due to 2FA issues, have now corrected. Dividends will pay normally today; difficulty looks to be changing around midnight tonight. I will be traveling tomorrow, so the report will be issued tomorrow evening. Depending on what kind of time I have, I may remove the EXCH ask or leave it up - the difficulty change looks to be very small so it will not be a very significant change.
Starting tomorrow, I will start running a trial of updating the EXCH price every day. We'll do this for a period and see how it goes. If it doesn't prove to be too onerous, I will go ahead and make the change permanent.
Balance Post Divs: BTC 183.86706271
Total Units: 20064
NAV/U: BTC 0.00916402
Wasn't able to log in yesterday due to 2FA issues, have now corrected. Dividends will pay normally today; difficulty looks to be changing around midnight tonight. I will be traveling tomorrow, so the report will be issued tomorrow evening. Depending on what kind of time I have, I may remove the EXCH ask or leave it up - the difficulty change looks to be very small so it will not be a very significant change.
Starting tomorrow, I will start running a trial of updating the EXCH price every day. We'll do this for a period and see how it goes. If it doesn't prove to be too onerous, I will go ahead and make the change permanent.
To mechanize the fund more quickly at this point, would you be able to update the B.EXCH price after every 1008 blocks to accommodate for the order-of-magnitude difference in price-to-time that's beginning to emerge?
It's definitely something I'd consider - my main reason for not updating daily is that I didn't want people to be sitting around waiting for me to change it each day. I post most updates around noon, and almost always same day, but I didn't want to put too much pressure on myself to have to be at the computer every day at noon for that.
However, at the moment, anything is probably better than not updating at all during the period. It won't significantly impact holders of either MINE or SELL; it does result in less overall BTC moving into the fund for each unit of EXCH sold (because it will be daily NAV/U plus 3% not starting-Period-NAV/U plus 3%, but it will likely result in more sales overall because it's much easier for the bids of MINE and SELL to add up to more than that, causing the arbitrage opportunity.
I think that I can do this without too much tweaking with the understanding that the EXCH ask will be updated at the same time as the report is issued - this will be around Noon as much as possible, but it's not a guarantee. Still a better deal for buyers of EXCH in any case.
Period 26, Day 11 Report - December 14, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.12808511
Total Units: 20064
NAV/U: BTC 0.00922687
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.12808511
Total Units: 20064
NAV/U: BTC 0.00922687
Period 26, Day 10 Report - December 13, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 186.38910751
Total Units: 20064
NAV/U: BTC 0.00928972
Balance Post Divs: BTC 186.38910751
Total Units: 20064
NAV/U: BTC 0.00928972
To mechanize the fund more quickly at this point, would you be able to update the B.EXCH price after every 1008 blocks to accommodate for the order-of-magnitude difference in price-to-time that's beginning to emerge?
Period 26, Day 9 Report - December 12, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 187.20864567
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00935108
Balance Post Divs: BTC 187.20864567
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00935108
Period 26, Day 8 Report - December 11, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.46690267
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00941393
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.46690267
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00941393
For real, this current generation of ASICS supporting the network is so, ungrasp-ably inefficient compared to what's about to hit that the overall network hashrate might actually contract again in aggregate to force the price down closer to a new marginal cost of electric power = marginal revenue at market equilibrium at an even lower (!!) market price. If that theory's correct - it's all forex rate effects that would be in effect and this asset (B.MINE) goes on to ROI plus pay out indefinite dividends based on whatever new entrants are willing to pay for B.EXCH as the door price to buy-in...at what point would B.MINE's potential dividends be terminated? Because that's just such a perfect scenario to become a Ponzi bond after a certain point...
I think that the leveling of the difficulty is a sign that the mining ecosystem is has finally flushed out all of the influx brought on by the rise to $1000 last year. During that time, people piled money into developing new ASICs and they have been coming out over the last 6-9 months.
I believe that there is new hardware coming online in the next few months, so I don't expect it to stay flat for too long. MINE will pay out dividends for as long as there are .0002 BTC per share available to do so. There might be a small period near the end where people could do this, but I think it would be so small of a profit to be made, if any, to justify it.
Period 26, Day 8 Report - December 11, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.46690267
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00941393
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.46690267
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00941393
For real, this current generation of ASICS supporting the network is so, ungrasp-ably inefficient compared to what's about to hit that the overall network hashrate might actually contract again in aggregate to force the price down closer to a new marginal cost of electric power = marginal revenue at market equilibrium at an even lower (!!) market price. If that theory's correct - it's all forex rate effects that would be in effect and this asset (B.MINE) goes on to ROI plus pay out indefinite dividends based on whatever new entrants are willing to pay for B.EXCH as the door price to buy-in...at what point would B.MINE's potential dividends be terminated? Because that's just such a perfect scenario to become a Ponzi bond after a certain point...
Period 26, Day 8 Report - December 11, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.46690267
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00941393
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.46690267
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00941393
Period 26, Day 7 Report - December 10, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 189.72515967
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00947678
Balance Post Divs: BTC 189.72515967
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00947678
Period 26, Day 6 Report - December 9, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 190.98341667
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00953963
Balance Post Divs: BTC 190.98341667
Total Units: 20020
NAV/U: BTC 0.00953963
Period 26, Day 5 Report - December 8, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 192.20153874
Total Units: 20016
NAV/U: BTC 0.00960239
Balance Post Divs: BTC 192.20153874
Total Units: 20016
NAV/U: BTC 0.00960239
Period 26, Day 4 Report - December 7, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 191.88424831
Total Units: 19859
NAV/U: BTC 0.00966233
Balance Post Divs: BTC 191.88424831
Total Units: 19859
NAV/U: BTC 0.00966233
Period 26, Day 3 Report - December 6, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 193.06215033
Total Units: 19852
NAV/U: BTC 0.00972507
Balance Post Divs: BTC 193.06215033
Total Units: 19852
NAV/U: BTC 0.00972507
Period 26, Day 2 Report - December 5, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 194.30984853
Total Units: 19852
NAV/U: BTC 0.00978792
Balance Post Divs: BTC 194.30984853
Total Units: 19852
NAV/U: BTC 0.00978792
Period 26, Day 1 Report - December 4, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 194.55417346
Total Units: 19752
NAV/U: BTC 0.009849846
Balance Post Divs: BTC 194.55417346
Total Units: 19752
NAV/U: BTC 0.009849846
Period 26, Day 0 Report - December 3, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 195.04305671
Total Units: 19677
NAV/U: BTC 0.00991223
Balance Post Divs: BTC 195.04305671
Total Units: 19677
NAV/U: BTC 0.00991223
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