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Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 49. (Read 290235 times)

legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
And I'm sure that few people here read the thread this often, but I'd appreciate it if people would let me know if there's any interest in starting up a 5TH/s offering - Sometimes bigger players need more liquidity and/or higher prices to make it worth their trading time. If I did start one, separate from the current 5GH/s offering of course, I would probably institute a higher/sooner End-Game for it.

I don't understand why bigger players would need a bigger hashing-power option as they can always just buy more 5 GH/s-es . What's the reasoning behind this?

In theory that makes sense, but the issue that I've seen so far is the lack of liquidity. If you want to but 10BTC of MINE, for example, you can buy it on-market or you can buy EXCH and sell off the SELL. However, you're going to see a lot of slippage either way.

I'm not sure if the decrease in total activity by volume is a result of the decrease in NAV/U, decrease in the BTC/USD rate, decrease of total Havelock volume, or a combination of the three.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 25, Day 2 Report - November 21, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 198.40264940

Total Units: 18647

NAV/U: BTC 0.01063992
full member
Activity: 149
Merit: 100
And I'm sure that few people here read the thread this often, but I'd appreciate it if people would let me know if there's any interest in starting up a 5TH/s offering - Sometimes bigger players need more liquidity and/or higher prices to make it worth their trading time. If I did start one, separate from the current 5GH/s offering of course, I would probably institute a higher/sooner End-Game for it.

I don't understand why bigger players would need a bigger hashing-power option as they can always just buy more 5 GH/s-es . What's the reasoning behind this?
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Heya 2070, been a while-ish.

Suggestion: If you do decide to reincarnate BDD with a 5TH/s initial offering, I'd suggest making the B.EXCH market price percentage over the NAV/U increase with the number of excess days of funds in reserve (if there is an excess - otherwise keep it at the fat 2%).  

The reasoning behind this is similar to a point I made a while ago in response to thread members' observations that buyers of B.EXCH who held both the B.MINE and B.SELL shares saw a net yield due to the time series (essentially, in isolation of the capital inflows themselves, "Ponzi"-like) effect of more investors moving capital into the fund after them.  I argued that this was a beneficial effect of the fund's mechanics in that overall it encouraged aggregate net inflows into the fund over time by giving investors an incentive to move capital into the fund sooner rather than later - filling fund reserve deficits more quickly than if this "implied" yield was somehow removed from the fund.

However, when the fund holds an excess of reserves, this means that potential new investors can explicitly buy into a higher-valued pair of units for the same cost.  Granted, this situation would only arise in situations where difficulty periods saw heavy volatility in the forecasted difficulty increase (especially evident with this fund, where some traders use BitcoinWisdom's moving-average-Taylor-Series-like forecasting mdoel), or similarly, when heavy sales of B.EXCH/pair buybacks occurred late in the period (typically past the 10th day).  The circumstances would be rather rare, but still, such a B.EXCH pricing policy should have the effect of further padding the fund NAV/U over fund lifetimes (as well as padding your commission on sales margins, I might add).

Cheers!

I think I see what you're saying here, but I want to make sure - I'm going to break everything down by-point and comment or ask for clarification that way-

Suggestion: If you do decide to reincarnate BDD with a 5TH/s initial offering, I'd suggest making the B.EXCH market price percentage over the NAV/U increase with the number of excess days of funds in reserve (if there is an excess - otherwise keep it at the fat 2%).  


So, currently, the EXCH sales price is 3% over the NAV/U at the start of the Period - 2% as the management fee, .6% to the balance of the assets, and .4% to Havelock for the trading fee. DMS actually changed the EXCH price each day based on the NAV/U for each day - the reason that I don't do this is that the MINE divs are paid at the same time each day and I don't want to log in each day at noon to do this. It would be a pain for me to do so and also it would be unfair to some purchasers of EXCH - if divs were paid at Noon and I didn't log in to change the EXCH price until 3PM, all EXCH purchasers would be overcharged.

The reasoning behind this is similar to a point I made a while ago in response to thread members' observations that buyers of B.EXCH who held both the B.MINE and B.SELL shares saw a net yield due to the time series (essentially, in isolation of the capital inflows themselves, "Ponzi"-like) effect of more investors moving capital into the fund after them.  I argued that this was a beneficial effect of the fund's mechanics in that overall it encouraged aggregate net inflows into the fund over time by giving investors an incentive to move capital into the fund sooner rather than later - filling fund reserve deficits more quickly than if this "implied" yield was somehow removed from the fund.

This is an issue I foresaw - you can gain a (slight) profit simply by holding MINE and SELL - you just need to do it over a pretty long period of time in which shares of EXCH are purchased. While it's beneficial to holders of MINE and SELL (moreso for one side depending on which way the difficulty is going at the time) for there to be more excess funds available as a whole, purchasing now vs. later doesn't make much of a difference in my opinion, as it's not as if BDD is investing the funds somewhere - BDD isn't missing out on any 'profit' or gains by not holding those coins sooner.

However, when the fund holds an excess of reserves, this means that potential new investors can explicitly buy into a higher-valued pair of units for the same cost.

This is not necessarily true - unless there was a massive inflow of new shares, purchasers are EXCH are always going to be overpaying for EXCH relative to the NAV/U. At the beginning of the period, as soon as I put up the new EXCH sales price, the new purchasers are already paying (Period NAV/U * 1.03) and only receiving Period NAV/U less one day of dividends. As the period lengthens, purchasers of EXCH are still paying Period NAV/U * 1.03 and getting Period NAV/U - X days of dividends. The later on that people purchase EXCH, the less that they get for it in terms of NAV/U (this ignores the market price of course).

I would actually like a solution to this problem ('overcharging' for EXCH to the benefit of the fund) that doesn't involve a manual update of the EXCH price every day, but I haven't come up with one yet.

I'm not sure that I addressed all of the points adequately, or if I misunderstood some of them, how far did I get to where you were going?

And I'm sure that few people here read the thread this often, but I'd appreciate it if people would let me know if there's any interest in starting up a 5TH/s offering - Sometimes bigger players need more liquidity and/or higher prices to make it worth their trading time. If I did start one, separate from the current 5GH/s offering of course, I would probably institute a higher/sooner End-Game for it.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
B.EXCH seems to be down right now; Havelock is on the case. I'll be manually exchanging in the meantime. Have paid divs to EXCH shares that were stuck.

Period 25, Day 1 Report - November 20, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 199.08841861

Total Units: 18603

NAV/U: BTC 0.01070195
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 25, Day 0 Report - November 19, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 199.67374824

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01076408
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Heya 2070, been a while-ish.

Suggestion: If you do decide to reincarnate BDD with a 5TH/s initial offering, I'd suggest making the B.EXCH market price percentage over the NAV/U increase with the number of excess days of funds in reserve (if there is an excess - otherwise keep it at the fat 2%).  

The reasoning behind this is similar to a point I made a while ago in response to thread members' observations that buyers of B.EXCH who held both the B.MINE and B.SELL shares saw a net yield due to the time series (essentially, in isolation of the capital inflows themselves, "Ponzi"-like) effect of more investors moving capital into the fund after them.  I argued that this was a beneficial effect of the fund's mechanics in that overall it encouraged aggregate net inflows into the fund over time by giving investors an incentive to move capital into the fund sooner rather than later - filling fund reserve deficits more quickly than if this "implied" yield was somehow removed from the fund.

However, when the fund holds an excess of reserves, this means that potential new investors can explicitly buy into a higher-valued pair of units for the same cost.  Granted, this situation would only arise in situations where difficulty periods saw heavy volatility in the forecasted difficulty increase (especially evident with this fund, where some traders use BitcoinWisdom's moving-average-Taylor-Series-like forecasting mdoel), or similarly, when heavy sales of B.EXCH/pair buybacks occurred late in the period (typically past the 10th day).  The circumstances would be rather rare, but still, such a B.EXCH pricing policy should have the effect of further padding the fund NAV/U over fund lifetimes (as well as padding your commission on sales margins, I might add).

Cheers!

Not ignoring you, just very busy at work today. Thanks for the suggestion, let me review it tonight-
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24 End Report - November 19, 2014


Previous Units              17626
EXCH Sold                   924
Less Buybacks              0
New Total Units        18550

Previous Balance          206.29715450
Price per EXCH             0.01205525
Gross Sales of EXCH      11.13905100

Less Fees                    0.04455622
Less Dividends              16.32797726
Less Buybacks              0.00000000
Less Mgmt Fee              0.23258928
Net Balance            200.83108274

End of Period NAV/U     0.01082647

New Difficulty                  40,300,030,328
New Daily Dividend         0.00006239
New Reserve per Unit        0.01247800

New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01247800 - 0.01082647 = -0.00165153


SELL Dividend                 None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)

Days of Dividends On Hand    ~173.5

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

New EXCH Sales Price          0.01115126
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 502
Heya 2070, been a while-ish.

Suggestion: If you do decide to reincarnate BDD with a 5TH/s initial offering, I'd suggest making the B.EXCH market price percentage over the NAV/U increase with the number of excess days of funds in reserve (if there is an excess - otherwise keep it at the fat 2%).  

The reasoning behind this is similar to a point I made a while ago in response to thread members' observations that buyers of B.EXCH who held both the B.MINE and B.SELL shares saw a net yield due to the time series (essentially, in isolation of the capital inflows themselves, "Ponzi"-like) effect of more investors moving capital into the fund after them.  I argued that this was a beneficial effect of the fund's mechanics in that overall it encouraged aggregate net inflows into the fund over time by giving investors an incentive to move capital into the fund sooner rather than later - filling fund reserve deficits more quickly than if this "implied" yield was somehow removed from the fund.

However, when the fund holds an excess of reserves, this means that potential new investors can explicitly buy into a higher-valued pair of units for the same cost.  Granted, this situation would only arise in situations where difficulty periods saw heavy volatility in the forecasted difficulty increase (especially evident with this fund, where some traders use BitcoinWisdom's moving-average-Taylor-Series-like forecasting mdoel), or similarly, when heavy sales of B.EXCH/pair buybacks occurred late in the period (typically past the 10th day).  The circumstances would be rather rare, but still, such a B.EXCH pricing policy should have the effect of further padding the fund NAV/U over fund lifetimes (as well as padding your commission on sales margins, I might add).

Cheers!
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 13 Report - November 18, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 200.83108274

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01082647
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 12 Report - November 17, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 202.00882224

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01088996
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 11 Report - November 16, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 203.18656174

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01095345
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 10 Report - November 15, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 204.36430124

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01101694
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 9 Report - November 14, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 205.54204074

Total Units: 18550

NAV/U: BTC 0.01108043
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 8 Report - November 13, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 206.67275900

Total Units: 18546

NAV/U: BTC 0.01114379
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 7 Report - November 12, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 207.35652156

Total Units: 18504

NAV/U: BTC 0.01120603
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
...
Will be back here tomorrow to post BDD updates and issue the ultimatum post for ABI.

Link?
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 6 Report - November 11, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 207.95533038

Total Units: 18455

NAV/U: BTC 0.01126823
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Period 24, Day 2 Report - November 7, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 208.38421040

Total Units: 18094

NAV/U: BTC 0.01151675


Period 24, Day 3 Report - November 8, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 210.11160980

Total Units: 18340

NAV/U: BTC 0.01145646


Period 24, Day 4 Report - November 9, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 209.00566230

Total Units: 18345

NAV/U: BTC 0.01139305


Period 24, Day 5 Report - November 10, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 209.12703833

Total Units: 18455

NAV/U: BTC 0.01133172

Thanks to everyone for their patience
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1000
Have replied to most PMs.

Have called him three times last week and he's not getting back to me at all.

I'm currently in the middle of moving houses so that's why I've been away from the forums. Pretty much going to give him one more chance to come back up before doxing him.

Will be back here tomorrow to post BDD updates and issue the ultimatum post for ABI.
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